UPDATED! SUNDAY AM! Beryl Is BACK. This Time As a Subtropical Storm. Nothing Expected After Beryl Moves On... For Awhile. 2 Weeks Til August. But...It's Been a Strange Quirky Year So Expect Surprises to Continue. NATL ICE CREAM DAY

Quick update on Beryl

Our Subtropical Storm Sitting over the Gulf Stream.

Good picture on Twitter from @sjltx1963

It is out there.

Small center as always.

Tightly wrapped as always.

Discussion about it being over the Gulf Stream.

Not moving much.

Not much expected.

Sort of Beryl's story from the beginning.

You got to think of Beryl like one of those preemie babies born way back that wasn't expected to make it. The odds were too great, it was too tiny and not able to survive. Yet it survived. Beryl thrived in negative conditions, swam around like some sort of scuba diver hiding from the surface. Then coming back and showing her colors once over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. And, speaking of "warmer waters" in theory check out this map of the cooler waters Chris left behind. 

Yet somehow Beryl found her groove again.

No disrespect to NHC but it's now a Canadian storm.

So showing their map first.

NHC below.

What's note worthy is Beryl reformed over coolerwater.

Beryl formed in the Atlantic over cooler water.

Maybe our thoughts on cool water need to...

....be rethunk :)

Still spinning after all this time.

It's Sunday I'm in a mood.

Ice Cream is on my radar for lunch.

Do we need to wonder on what's off the SE coast?

Possibly. Fronts are wonderful this time of year.

But then they fall flat there and well yeah...

Sometimes something spins up.

Dabuh raises that question.

As he has been in Surfer Heaven...

...he's very aware of the weather.

And that's it for this morning's update.

On the little storm that could

https://parade.com/685622/leahingram/8-deals-for-national-ice-cream-day-2018/

What's your favorite Ice Cream Flavor?

My inquiring mind wants to know ;)

Besos BobbiStornm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

#Bobbistorminsaillymood.

Ps.. Remember back in 1993.

A strange little comedy became a big hit.

Jamaican Bob Sled Team.

That's kind of what Beryl reminds me of...

You can clearly see the closed circulation above.

And the official map from the NHC below.

So Beryl is back.

This time as a Subtropical Storm.

That makes sense.

Being reborn that far North in the Atlantic.

Sailing even farther North...

...out to sea.

Relevant data from NHC below.

Note Sable Island could get impacted again.

An impressive storm system really.

Born against all the odds in a sea of dust.

Water temperatures cooler than normal.

Dry air everywhere. 

Yet she became a Hurricane anyway.

Small, itsby, bitsy hurricane.

But a hurricane for the record book.

Now cruising in the North Atlantic.

Go figure.

Sat image above.

Note the broad center.

Weather far removed from the center.

Weather everywhere.

Below is NOT Beryl

Seems like just rain.

Out by African more rain.

New wave, next wave.

Speaking of waves.

Quiet, serene looking water below.

Small waves, blue sky.

The horizon in between.

Speaking of waves ....

Will the rest of July be quiet?

Hard to say.

Odd year.

Possibilities out there.

So we will keep watching.

I had a beautiful Shabbos today (Jewish Sabbath on Saturday) and the weather even cooperated making it a joy to be outside in the middle of July. The air was not heavy, it was actually delightful in the shade and not bad even in the sunshine. And, there was so much sunshine today. The trees here in Raleigh look a little bit droopy, we could use a little rain I'm guessing. But, it was and has been beautiful the last few days. I'll be back to update as needed but there really isn't much of a need to update on Beryl is there? Two coastal cruisers that remained out in the Atlantic Ocean so far, but I wouldn't count on us being that lucky the rest of the year. Who knows? We'll see. Time always tells. While time is telling have fun, be happy and rock steady.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on twitter 

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5 on Facebook 

Ps... Here's some beach music if you really need me to offer you a tune ;)

Somethings to Talk About Tropical and Otherwise. Chris, X Beryl Trying to Make a Come Back. Midwest Wild Weather. Cold Fronts Early. African Wave Train.

You notice two things here above.

Deep reds and oranges nearing the Great Lakes.

A large circulation off of Africa ...

..and a wave behind it coming off today.

Waves shown above.

Two very healthy waves.

Saharan Dust is waiting for them.

Classic for this time of year.

No not really...

...we are ahead of schedule this year.

The waves are actually healthier.

That's a healthy 

Put it all in motion.

The waves in the Atlantic are mentioned below.

Also mentioned are the high winds in the Caribbean.

Going to point out some things this morning and then move on to do some things I need to get done. I suppose we could name today's blog "Somethings worth watching" :)

When looking at the wide view of the Atlantic and it's associated land masses it is very hard not to notice the huge wave coming off of Africa. There is actually another huge wave axis that moved off of Africa recently that is maintaining convection on the South side of it much like Beryl and most strong waves do this time of year. They, like people, find their energy where they can get it and work with what they have to get where they are going. Some people like regular old American Coffee such as Folgers or Maxwell House, others like Nespresso like me...  some drink Coffee, Tea or even Red Bull. There are some rare people who don't do any form of energy or drink and they drink water. Well, water is the most beneficial energy drink any of us can drink and coffee, tea and even Red Bull start with water somewhere. Water in the tropics needs to be the right temperature to get tropical convection blowing and rolling so that it makes it's way across the Planet to ours side of the world. Each wave that dies out in the East Atlantic puts moisture into the atmosphere readily available to the next wave behind it. Waves are it seems "team players" having each other's back and lending support even when they aren't going to make the trek themselves.

The end result of this process is that when the Atlantic heats up a bit more and the Saharan Dust wanes some as it is prone to do later in the summer as we approach the peak of the Hurricane Season some wave coming off of Africa with a great looking low pressure center attached will develop and become a problem. Even somewhat slow years often produce one or two dangerous, way too viable hurricanes. Sometimes they develop close in and other times they take their time, getting dangerously closer to the Islands and then develop. Every year is similar, every year is different yet the one constant is Hurricane Season really gets going later in the summer. My one problem with this year is that it feels as if we are running several weeks ahead of schedule. Time will tell how this plays out.

As for Chris it is one hell of a storm. I really cannot say enough about what a tremendous feat it achieved by even BEING a very strong Category 2 Hurricane in Early July over marginally warm water, with dry air from the nearby cold front and high pressure system that built over him trapping him below where he looped and looped yet did not die out. Had that front not been in early July (also rare) who knows for sure where and if Chris would have made landfall somewhere. Thirty Four such storms  have made landfall in North Carolina since recorded history and Chris most likely would have been thirty five if it had not paralleled the coast and made landfall further to the North. Chris was a real fighter and it's worth noting that even though it stayed off our coast it didn't ignore land further North.

Jim Williams has a way of predicting where hurricanes will go.

He makes a yearly forecast.

His forecast last year was dead on for hurricane tracks.

This year his forecast is so far on the money also.

Sable Island was his #1 pick.

You can check out more on his website.

www.hurricanecity.com

2. Chris still recognizable 

Spread out at a high latitude.

Dangerous still.

3. Cold front moving off of the Carolinas.

Associated weather...

Early July.

4. Remnants of Beryl.

Nothing there yet.

But we are watching.

50/50 odds still by NHC

Chris left Beryl cooler waters.

Let's see what XB has under the hood.

Keep watching.

Lastly the wave off of Africa.

A wave train forming.

Needs to be watched in the long term.

Again these are the players above.

Midwest storms.

Chris.

Cold front near OBX

X Beryl

Wave Train by Africa.

Now a look around Twitter at what people are talking about and why you should think on these meteorological events.

Cranky is concerned about Chris.

Wanna know why?

Cause even downgraded to Extra Post Whatever...

It's going to be one big blow.

He shows that with great maps.

Good solid discussion.

What an amazing set of pictures.

Side by side.

Inspired Cantore to wax hyperbole today.

James Taylor needs to write a song for that one.

I've seen snow and I've seen tropical rain.

16 days apart.

Amazing.

DaBuh is watching the African Wave.

Interaction with SAL

DaBuh is more often right than wrong.

Either way he explains the pattern.

Presents the possibilities.

Wicked Weather in the Mid West.

Weather Nation covers weather.

Tornado near Red Lake Minnesota 

Again all the tornado chasing action...

...has been moved to the North this year.

Is that a sunset and a funnel cloud?

Wow. Epic beautiful.

And last but very not least.

Mike and his daughter have picked a winner.

You can go to Facebook and watch the video.

Do it! 

You might be the winner of his drawing...

Missy was the winner.

I always loved that name.

I have a confession to make.

Knowing Mike like I do..

I wondered if he was rating luncheon meat :(

No.... those are tickets for a raffle.

One thing I have to tell you is Mike is very genuine and real. He is who he is and he's a good father to both his daughters. The daughter above plays softball (all positions except catcher) and many of his Spaghetti Model Page Fans have helped contribute for her to go to play in Panama City, Florida. Mike donated an incredible prize for people who helped and he is extremely grateful to his wonderful fans. Those are his words, he has often waxed poetic on how wonderful his fans are and the people who talk on Facebook and discuss weather with him while watching his Facebook Live. He's inspirational in ways because he truly finds ways to enjoy life; maybe it's the moonshine...

That's it everyone. Have a wonderful Thursday and keep an eye on the weather always.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

That's me... a photo I took while out storm chasing with my daughter in New York City. Yes, NYC gets crazy summer storms (that was during Hurricane Arthur passing off shore) and sometimes in years such as this when all the energy is way up north they really do walk the line between waiting on cold fronts and winter to begin and saying goodbye to Hurricane Season. I could be wrong, I'm just pointing out the pattern and this year's pattern of Tornado season taking a Northern Vacation to Wyoming and the Dakotas and Minnesota, extreme flooding and rain from Pittsburgh to Maryland and even the appearance of a hurricane off the East Coast in July all point to possible tropical problems for the Mid Atlantic later in the Hurricane Season. 

Ps Some music history.

Hurricane Chris Out to Sea. Beryl Remnants Remain a Possible Problem. DIY Ideas and Hurricane Prep. Busy Year So Far and It's Early. Do You Have a Hurricane Plan?

HURRICANE CHRIS

Only cities that need to worry about wind from Chris.

Looks good...doesn't it?

Far off shore.

Not bothering Bermuda or East Coast.

Just cruising along NE at 22 MPH

Put it in motion.

Hurricane Chris is churning up the waters of the Atlantic far away from the Atlantic coast to have any impact other than high surf and small craft should probably be aware it's there. If you have a small craft you are usually aware of the weather as it's the first thing you need to check before taking the small craft out into the water obviously. So even though you can go online and see these stunning visual images of a big hurricane off the coast know it's staying off the coast. 

The truth is unless you live on Cape Cod you aren't worried about Chris and they aren't really worried as they have winter storms that are way stronger than hurricanes. That's what they ALWAYS tell me, my friends up in those parts. "Oh we have real Nor'easters stronger than hurricanes" and yeah that's because they die before they get up to your cold waters. Kind of clueless in ways as what they often experience is not what people experience on the Pacific Islands that are lashed by 185 MPH winds or the hell that Hurricane Maria created when it sandblasted an island in the Atlantic before going on to disrupt life in Puerto Rico where life is still being put back together. Yes, I know your Nor'easters are awesome but nothing compared to a slow moving West Indies Hurricane. Nuff said on that. 

So in truth no one really cares that much about Chris other than from a visual and academic perspective. In truth last night it looked to be a Major Hurricane, Cat 3 yet was kept at Cat 2 with long discussion explaining why they kept it at Cat 2 strength when it appeared to be a Major hurricane. For the record books it was a Cat 2 with a Cat 3 appearance. What's 5 MPH between friends? It's an impressive hurricane here too early making 2018 a now busy hurricane season with good ACE numbers so let's store those headlines about a dead hurricane season away and put them in a file named 2018 Hurricane Season. Yes, some people actually have files; some keep newspapers and others keep intricate folders on their computers. Hurricane Trackers and Chasers should really be renamed for that they truly are and I've done it so you can include me in for my own chasing days. We are Hurricane Stalkers. That's the real honest way to put it, yet it's not so politically correct so we call ourselves "Storm Chasers" but really people are just stalking the storm trying to touch it's energy, understand it and get pictures of it to store away in their cache of memories.

And, when Chris goes out to sea........ people look elsewhere to see what's next.

So what's next? 

The remnants of Beryl remain a question. I'd use the word quandary but I've used that already so let's just say it's a big question. Currently at Noon it's still 50/50 and you ask why I bet? Yet there is a huge about of convection over a large area traveling en masse off the East Coast following in the wake of Hurricane Chris. Waters some what cooler than they were before Chris visited and not very warm to begin with in July. Well, warm enough for something but not for real trouble to happen. We are on the C storm looking for the D storm in early July. If this continues we will need to worry about hurricanes that play peek a boo with cold fronts and high pressure systems in this part of the Atlantic as those powers that be often bring real trouble to the coastline; trouble not just high surf and riptides.

So Chris exits stage right.

Models have been playing with Beryl's remnants.

The presence of a storm of any kind...

...keeps the ante up and the NHC is monitoring it.

Note on the 5 day that X is orange.

The 2 day is shown below.

You can see the ripple in the winds on Earthnull

Models below show the weak concern.

Weak as in currently nothing is there.

But in general the water is hot in the Bahamas.

And it's quite warm just offshore.

The Gulf Stream is always warm.

Especially in July.

Note the 3 model slivers below show two things worth noting. One is the presence of the remnants of Beryl trying to form into some sort of closed low. Those remnants actually loop about much like Chris did for a day or two. Chances are only 50/50 and it's worth remembering Beryl was always enigmatic so expect more odd behavior if it does really try and form. Also note the strength of the high to it's right over the Atlantic.

As models keep throwing out this close in solution.

The NHC will continue giving it medium odds.

50/50 in the 5 day.

It would be pretty amazing for X Beryl to pull that off.

Elsewhere........

A wave near Africa exits and enters the stage.

Short window to stay alive.

But so far not expected to develop.

Note Global Hazards Map highlights the area still.

Lastly leaving you with some Hurricane Prep reading.

I don't usually click on "promoted links" 

But sometimes it's worth looking.

This is actually a very good link.

https://t.co/DE8N4TyOzF

May try this to see if it works.

Besides the light I imagine it would scent the air.

Without power the air gets stale...

..so you might want to check this out.

Hurricanes are happening this year.

Despite cool water by Africa or EL Nino later in the year.

We have had 2 hurricanes by early July.

Worth checking on what you would do...

...if a hurricane came to visit you.

Unwanted guests are the worst...

ACE is happening.

It's worth getting a Hurricane Plan.

If not now when?

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Better now than later.

Heard a saying last night.

If you have the time to do something....

....do it now before time runs out.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Do you really want to be that person?

Give it time.

It's really funny.

Been there trust me.

You don't really want to be that person...

Not a loaf left.

Canned tuna and meat gone too.....

Hurricanes Happen.

Even in years going into an El Nino