Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, July 14, 2018

UPDATED! SUNDAY AM! Beryl Is BACK. This Time As a Subtropical Storm. Nothing Expected After Beryl Moves On... For Awhile. 2 Weeks Til August. But...It's Been a Strange Quirky Year So Expect Surprises to Continue. NATL ICE CREAM DAY

Quick update on Beryl
Our Subtropical Storm Sitting over the Gulf Stream.



Good picture on Twitter from 


It is out there.
Small center as always.
Tightly wrapped as always.


Discussion about it being over the Gulf Stream.
Not moving much.
Not much expected.
Sort of Beryl's story from the beginning.


You got to think of Beryl like one of those preemie babies born way back that wasn't expected to make it. The odds were too great, it was too tiny and not able to survive. Yet it survived. Beryl thrived in negative conditions, swam around like some sort of scuba diver hiding from the surface. Then coming back and showing her colors once over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. And, speaking of "warmer waters" in theory check out this map of the cooler waters Chris left behind. 


Yet somehow Beryl found her groove again.

No disrespect to NHC but it's now a Canadian storm.
So showing their map first.


NHC below.


What's note worthy is Beryl reformed over coolerwater.
Beryl formed in the Atlantic over cooler water.
Maybe our thoughts on cool water need to...
....be rethunk :)
Still spinning after all this time.


It's Sunday I'm in a mood.
Ice Cream is on my radar for lunch.

Do we need to wonder on what's off the SE coast?
Possibly. Fronts are wonderful this time of year.
But then they fall flat there and well yeah...
Sometimes something spins up.


Dabuh raises that question.
As he has been in Surfer Heaven...
...he's very aware of the weather.


And that's it for this morning's update.
On the little storm that could



What's your favorite Ice Cream Flavor?
My inquiring mind wants to know ;)

Besos BobbiStornm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
#Bobbistorminsaillymood.

Ps.. Remember back in 1993.
A strange little comedy became a big hit.
Jamaican Bob Sled Team.
That's kind of what Beryl reminds me of...





You can clearly see the closed circulation above.
And the official map from the NHC below.


So Beryl is back.
This time as a Subtropical Storm.
That makes sense.
Being reborn that far North in the Atlantic.
Sailing even farther North...
...out to sea.


Relevant data from NHC below.


Note Sable Island could get impacted again.


An impressive storm system really.
Born against all the odds in a sea of dust.
Water temperatures cooler than normal.
Dry air everywhere. 
Yet she became a Hurricane anyway.
Small, itsby, bitsy hurricane.
But a hurricane for the record book.
Now cruising in the North Atlantic.
Go figure.


Sat image above.
Note the broad center.
Weather far removed from the center.
Weather everywhere.

Below is NOT Beryl


Seems like just rain.
Out by African more rain.
New wave, next wave.


Speaking of waves.
Quiet, serene looking water below.
Small waves, blue sky.
The horizon in between.



Speaking of waves ....



Will the rest of July be quiet?
Hard to say.
Odd year.
Possibilities out there.


So we will keep watching.

I had a beautiful Shabbos today (Jewish Sabbath on Saturday) and the weather even cooperated making it a joy to be outside in the middle of July. The air was not heavy, it was actually delightful in the shade and not bad even in the sunshine. And, there was so much sunshine today. The trees here in Raleigh look a little bit droopy, we could use a little rain I'm guessing. But, it was and has been beautiful the last few days. I'll be back to update as needed but there really isn't much of a need to update on Beryl is there? Two coastal cruisers that remained out in the Atlantic Ocean so far, but I wouldn't count on us being that lucky the rest of the year. Who knows? We'll see. Time always tells. While time is telling have fun, be happy and rock steady.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on twitter 
https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5 on Facebook 

Ps... Here's some beach music if you really need me to offer you a tune ;)










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Sunday, July 09, 2017

NHC BE LIKE NEVER GONNA FALL IN LOVE AGAIN... EX TD4 Still Flaring up at Night & African Wave Ignored. As is Strong MDR Tropical Wave & BOC Convection. Models in the Doghouse...


Officially nothing happening.


State of the tropics below with strong tropical waves.
Consistent convection in BOC
Lots of color for early July.


Wide loop because Floaters have been banned this weekend!

rb-animated.gif (1120×480)

(sure hope XTD4 doesn't do South Beach at night...)
Why?
XTD4 Parties at night.
There's some impulse there that doesn't let go completely.
BOC getting interesting.
New wave leaves Africa (water so cold brrr)
MDR wave shows life.
And the beat goes on...

Models show development possible.
However these were the models that liked 94L
NHC kind of burned out on models today.
Love/Hate relationship going.
Gotta have model support.....
..but they kind of missed the problems with 94L aka TD4

So we are now moving into the SHOW ME State of mind.
Show me the money honey.
Show me you won't fizzle out again.
Show me you can fight off Cousin SAL

But oh wait........there may be a hero in the wings.

MJO watch up on Spaghetti Models
www.spaghettimodels




IF something develops a cyclonic signature...
we may see a floater once again one day.
Or maybe a real Invest again on NRL
I heard they brought therapists in after TD4

http://www.recovery.org/topics/about-the-codependents-anonymous-12-step-recovery-program/

Models you ask? I know you really want to see the models. Take them with sea salt as they have been overproducing on many levels of late not totally dealing with reality ...that reality being Cousin SAL. But MJO is on it's way so they say so ... maybe for the MJO believers the fix is in for a wave to get the name Don. But if it doesn't form ...don't say I didn't warn ya. NHC be all like "I see NOTHING" right now. Give them time, space, therapy .. maybe some good ice cream or a day out on the water and they may believe again in the models. Never say never...


Hmnnn GFS takes the wave all the way up the coast..


Euro takes a huge Tstorm over South Florida.
Good invest perhaps?


GFS hungry for action... 
Does NC after SFL on way to NE
Really I can't go there..
..I too swore off the models til Monday.

This is what you should really be watching.
The wave itself and if it develops a real center.
Models will be much more reliable.
A single, well aligned center.

ft-l.jpg (720×480)

XTD4 on right...
New wave entering stage left..

Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Follow me there for faster updates and fun..




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