A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, July 19, 2017
Invest 96L All Alone ...For Now. Another Wave Behind. SAL In Charge. They Should the Atlantic SALVILLE
Don had two choices.
Spin up fast or spin down fast.
Don is done.
Well there's a wave behind 96L waiting in the wings for upgrade to 97L
There's always another wave this year.
You can see the dry Saharan Dust to the North of 96L
They move in tandem.
Everything moves West.
More blasts of Saharan Dust come off of Africa.
More waves move off of Africa.
At some point later in the summer.
The waves get stronger and the SAL weaker.
Usually....
Every year is different.
But this year the waves keep coming.
Some years the waves are inferior.
This year they are strong enough to be Invests.
Some have made TS status.
Bret and Don.
Perhaps a storm with a longer name would live longer?
But I digress...
Normally we have weak no neck waves.
Poorly formed waves.
This year we have great waves.
But they all look alike.
They look like GMO waves.
I'm getting suspicious.
It's like they have been genetically modified.
All born to die by 55 West.
Except Bret & Don didn't obey....
Maybe they are like robots waves?
Okay I'm being a bit silly but watching tropical waves that are just strong enough for designation but not strong enough to do more this time of year can take a lot out of you. Last night when they pulled the plug on Don I got a really bad migraine. Then the migraine medicine made me sick :(
I'm going to take the day off and not stare at the loops and not watching any models as the models so far haven't been that great. Expect this Invest to make it into the islands as on open wave. And that is the problem. Unless something changes down the road the waves will only get stronger, the SAL will only get weaker and frontal boundaries ....some day once again... will begin to show up on satellite imagery. As the fronts appear the waves begin to get more viable and they also begin to turn more to the WNW after going West and that is when we have to worry. Until then I suggest lots of water to fight off dehydration and a really good sense of humor. Keep watching www.spaghettimodels.com as Mike has all the information on his tropical grids and I'll update again when I have something to say. You know like Mr. Ed. He never talks unless he has something to say....... Google it on Youtube. Until then the Tropical Cyclone Sheriff's Department AKA SAL is TOTALLY IN CHARGE!!!
Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter at @Bobbistorm
Ps... Hey you win some you lose some. CMC was the only model gunning for upgrade to Don and I'm still at a loss to understand the NHC going with the CMC model as it's not their top gun which is the EURO model as the GFS is not yet up to par. But in truth the strength of the waves and the strong track patter seemingly set in stone for now (until fronts pull them North) is a compelling question as to what the real hurricane season will show us after August begins.
UPDATED!! TS Don Weaker - Invest 96L Forms. Track for 96L goes to the NW. Don Keeps Heading West. Possible Candidate for Rapid Intensification So Bears Watching.
11 AM Advisory finds Don not doing so good.
Down to 40 MPH winds.
Losing the battle with shear.
Again look at the left side of the loop above.
You see the clouds caught up in the strong Shear.
That's the shear that's doing battle with Don.
Shear is winning.
Which looks really good for Euro that wasn't a believer.
Unless Don can fight off that shear...
...and that's doubtful.
He will unravel in the same way Bret did last month.
Prime time in E Carib for shear this time of year.
Later in Hurricane Season the Carib is friendlier.
NHC sent recon in and they had problems finding a closed center in Don. They discussed this in the 11 AM package but are going with the premise that there is a small closed center there until they are sure it has opened up into a strong wave. There is some strong weather in "Don" and it may in fact still be Don or Don may be done. Time will tell. The NHC cut it's cone back, no double dipping for Tropical Storm Don. He's on borrowed time. Worth remembering which models forecast this vs the ones that made it a strong hurricane. And that is in fact why the NHC tries to be conservative with changes to it's forecast package. It's always best to wait a while to see for sure what will or what won't verify.
If Don does not intensify..
..and comes in as weak TS or TD.
Don may track along the lower part of the cone.
Trinidad could get some stronger weather.
Lower part of islands should keep an eye on it.
Stay tuned to this ongoing drama.
And when we are done with Don.
Hilary is the next name up in the Epac.
Karma somewhere is having fun today.
So keep watching.
As for Invest 96L I'm watching it.
We are all watching it.
There's time.
SAL is ruling the roost in the Atlantic.
96L may form.
For now it's an elongated area of convection and low pressure.
I still like the wave currently over Africa.
A real wave train going on.
And soon MJO moves into our part of the world.
Currently the MJO is in the Epac.
Have a good day.
The world is fine.
I just snipped that badly.
Sorry...
I had sushi for lunch.
I'm a happy camper.
Be back later with more updates.
Keep watching the drama.
Nice flare up again in the BOC...
Heavy storms in South Florida today.
Below is discussion from this morning. You can see how fast things change in the tropics. So many models, so many possible solutions and things develop in real time. AGAIN small systems can spin up FAST and they can FALL APART in real time. Go to the movies and you might miss the drama in the tropics. And as fast as it fell apart earlier it can ramp back up just as fast! Stay tuned...
* * *
Rise and shine as they say.
We do that early on busy tropical days.
Note TS Don approaching the Islands.
Invest 96L to it's east.
Nicely spaced.
5 AM
11.5 N 56.2 W
W at 18 MPH
Winds 50 MPH
1007 Minimum Pressure
Cone from 5 AM
Only real change is they extended Don's predicted life span.
We are now looking at Thursday dissipation.
That can change so stay tuned.
As the sun rises over Tropical Storm Don....
You can see it's structure and its small size.
Over night it bulked up some.
You can see this below.
Steady as he goes.
Intensifying.
Track from NRL site.
And for comparison below is a hurricane.
HURRICANE FERNANDA in Epac
105 MPH.
Headed to Hawaii.
Will weaken before there..
Don above is NOT a Hurricane.
So I want to be serious this morning in that there are a lot of extremely predictable Hurricane Don jokes online right now. Some are quite funny ... witty.. no matter what your political persuasion it's good to laugh sometimes. But, many people just read Hashtags and headlines and get all excited and nervous that their Aunt Tillie vacationing in Trinidad is going to deal with a Hurricane. So if we can just keep this in perspective a bit and if Don becomes a hurricane (and that is possible) we can use the hashtag and make jokes. However, from a forecasting point of view this is not a joke as we have a small, but strong tropical storm going into the Islands on what possibly may be an intensifying phase. Some island, some where to quote a song ...is going to get a strong fast, punch from Don. And, the NHC center didn't make fun of Don's size ... Don is small. Just the way it goes. They have been way more critical of the size of many other strong hurricanes that the satellite imagery had problems even finding. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer here but if you type in #HUR this comes up ... and no it is not NOW a Hurricane.
How could it become a hurricane? Because with regard to Don in particular size is a problem as small storms are more prone to ramping up fast the way a small sports car revs it's engines and can make faster moves and turns than a large 18 wheeler on the highway. Speaking of large messy areas of convection slowly coming together is Don's friend Invest 96L introduced over night on NRL. A larger system and one that is expected to pull more to the North. 96L is orange and has a 40% chance of forming. 96L has a well defined low pressure system attached and models are being run and it is being studied.
The fly in the ointment with Don is that some models do stick with solutions that show Don intensifying rapidly on approach to the Islands and attaining Hurricane strength. Other models do not show that and the NHC is trying to walk a conservative line while mentioning the other models. So let's look at those models and discussion from the NHC at 5 AM.
That is an excellently written discussion explaining what is going on in Don's developing CDO way better than I can and no arguments on my end. The last paragraph is the kicker and the part I am posting in case you don't read the discussion for yourself.
And on Twitter there has been much discussion on that possibility. For now I'm going to go with we watch just what Tropical Storm Don does today and after getting better information to put into the next model run see what we shall see. The main point here is if you are in the path of Don watch and prepare for a Tropical Storm but know that a hurricane over Grenada is not out of the question. And there are several possible islands to experience a hit from Don so stay on top of late breaking information. And, no joke stay away from #Fakenews regarding Don as joking around is one thing but I've seen fake cones up online with Hurricane Don headed straight for WPB and no it's not doing that. I don't want some sweet abuelita in Little Havana having to rush to the ER for a panic attack because she read Hurricane Don is headed her way. Seriously... Now if you want to wonder if anything remains from possible Tropical Storm Emily that could form from Invest 96L coming further to the North... that we can discuss later.
Again above is an older post.
It shows the possibilities that exist regarding strengthening.
And again that is up to Don.
Warm water, low shear.
Current models on Intensity.
Now you see how hard it is to work at the NHC...
Mike has all the models up on www.spaghettimodels.com and his Facebook Page. The images are from Levi Cowan from www.tropicaltidbits.com and posted to Spaghetti Models and elsewhere.
https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage
Join the discussion on Facebook...
..or on Twitter @tropicalupdates
If you want to watch the Don as it relates to any possible rapid intensification one of the two best tools we have are the Funktop all colorful and the Dvorak that shows the story in shades of gray. Bright white inside the black is a sign of strength, not a black and white donut ;) If you see green develop inside the red on funktop watch it carefully! Funktop is the view at the top of the page.
Wide view:
I'll be updating at the top of the page with new advisories.
UPDATED! 45 MPH at 8 PM & Earthquake Tsunami - Tropical Storm Don Forms ..Headed Into the Eastern Carib. Watches & Warnings UP. Recon Went IN and Found TS Winds.
UPDATED
8PM Intermediate Advisory
11.2 N
53.8 W
West at 17 mph
45 MPH winds
1009 Barometric Pressure
Flared up and showing off a bit tonight.
Don has a lot of skeptics.
Many would have preferred it being just a TD.
But it's Don. Keep watching.
No new thoughts on it's future.
Again worth mentioning they show it thru Wednesday.
Cone is shown below.
For those into Geology.
There was a large earthquake in Kamchatka
For those of you who never played RISK the map is below:
Everything in the world is connected.
It's all awesome.
Sometimes dangerous but awesome.
Most models do not keep Don alive much longer than Bret.
Let's look at Bret again quickly.
Something could change.
But wouldn't count on it.
Patterns often exist.
Should be interesting to see what's next after Don.
Again we are on the 4th storm of the season.
In 1960 Hurricane Donna formed on Aug 29th.
Donna was the only long tracker of that year.
And what a tracker.
The season started with Abby that formed near Bret and Don.
Yet, they all continued on and on.
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Feel free to read the whole blog if you have not done so yet.
It explains how Don formed from a 50% orange circle this morning.
Go Recon!
BobbiStorm
I'll update in the morning.
* * *
11.2 N
52. 6W
W at 17 MPH
40 MPH Winds
1009 Barometric Pressure
Tropical Storm Don
Wide View of areas that need to watch Don.
Cones:
We have multiple cones these days.
I'm not going to show models as next model run will have better data from recon. And in general the models have been in agreement with the package above. Westbound... If anything changes I'll put up a new post or upgrade this post to include newer models. No surprises expected here. Many may ask why such a fast upgrade. The NHC works in real time. When something has a 50% chance of developing in the next few days that means that it can be upgraded in the next few hours. The fact that the NHC sent planes in to a system this far out that still was coming together showed their interest in getting the best data to properly warn the islands in the path of this storm.
Cities that could be affected:
Advisories are out.
Watches and warnings are up.
How did this happen?
Recon went in.
We watched in real time.
They upgraded in real time.
Tropical meteorology is fluid and develops fast.
So now we have Tropical Storm Don.
The storm that wasn't expected to form.
So much for a quiet week in the tropics.
Despite the presence of SAL ....
TS Don, a small cyclone, formed today.
First the NHC puts out a statement.
Info is sent out.
For hours people online have been watching recon.
Really the process is awesome.
Why?
In general it's in an area of low shear.
See how narrow a ribbon of opportunity it had.
They also found TS winds in a small area to the East of the center.
Water is warm.
It's got a Green Light for some further development.
This image was put up by Crown Weather earlier today.
Rob believed before recon went in that it would be upgraded.
There's been a lot of talk between us all.
Now look at the shear maps.
Don is in the green... in the money honey.
The red lines are not friendly "do not go there"
Don grabbed the opportunity and made the best of it.
Again it is a SMALL system and that makes it easier in ways.
It has a well defined center in it's small overall package.
And for the next day or so that upper level environment helps it along.
The planes went in... we watched in real time.
Were the winds there to make it Don vs TD5?
Yes they were....
And then in any language you get the idea.
Tormenta Don! Aqui ;)
Be like Christmas in July for tropical meteorologists.
July does tend to have a slow period.
Mid July we usually start increasing in named storms.
Moving West towards the Eastern Caribbean.
Don may have a running mate behind him.
That system is begging for the name 96L
Tho it may go NW into the SAL.
Maybe some sacrificial act to save Don?
Okay digressing a bit but hard to see how that will work.
Stay tuned.
I'll upgrade later today.
We have time to watch the system behind Don.
Today and tomorrow we need to pay close attention to Don.
NHC BE LIKE NEVER GONNA FALL IN LOVE AGAIN... EX TD4 Still Flaring up at Night & African Wave Ignored. As is Strong MDR Tropical Wave & BOC Convection. Models in the Doghouse...
Officially nothing happening.
State of the tropics below with strong tropical waves.
Consistent convection in BOC
Lots of color for early July.
Wide loop because Floaters have been banned this weekend!
(sure hope XTD4 doesn't do South Beach at night...)
Why?
XTD4 Parties at night.
There's some impulse there that doesn't let go completely.
BOC getting interesting.
New wave leaves Africa (water so cold brrr)
MDR wave shows life.
And the beat goes on...
Models show development possible.
However these were the models that liked 94L
NHC kind of burned out on models today.
Love/Hate relationship going.
Gotta have model support.....
..but they kind of missed the problems with 94L aka TD4
So we are now moving into the SHOW ME State of mind.
Show me the money honey.
Show me you won't fizzle out again.
Show me you can fight off Cousin SAL
But oh wait........there may be a hero in the wings.
Models you ask? I know you really want to see the models. Take them with sea salt as they have been overproducing on many levels of late not totally dealing with reality ...that reality being Cousin SAL. But MJO is on it's way so they say so ... maybe for the MJO believers the fix is in for a wave to get the name Don. But if it doesn't form ...don't say I didn't warn ya. NHC be all like "I see NOTHING" right now. Give them time, space, therapy .. maybe some good ice cream or a day out on the water and they may believe again in the models. Never say never...
Hmnnn GFS takes the wave all the way up the coast..
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
