Kirk. Leslie. Storms ... Take Them as WEATHER Not Just About the Center or the Wind Strength. Kirk is a Huge Mass of Convection and Wind Moving Towards the Islands. New Wave Off Africa. Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Beat's Out OBX on a Windless Day.

Ok, I am back home and watching the tropics along with all the breaking news of the day. So excuse me for not posting earlier. I slept very late and am watching the news like everyone while looping loops and trying to think just what to say here. I want to point out the reality vs the sublime, academic meteorological discussion that takes away from it the reality of life and what people are dealing with when facing any tropical entity. There are two huge systems below, both different and yet both similar in that they are easily recognized and compelling.

A storm by any name and in this case Kirk needs to be taken for what it is and not simply picked apart by academics living far away from the islands in it's path. The fact that it is a Tropical Storm vs a Category 1 Hurricane or God Forbid a Cat 5 is true, but this particular tropical storm carries with it strong winds far from it's center and huge amounts of tropical moisture. The center as always out runs the moisture but the problem with that this time is that where the center goes the moisture is going to follow. Out in the Atlantic it simply fell apart and then intensified again when it found warmer water and less wind shear. That's worth remembering as everyone is glad to stick a fork in Kirk and proclaim him dead as we had done that before and he's back again. I'm not saying he will come back if he falls apart as forecast but I am saying it's logical that him remnants can come back a second time until the last rainstorm dries up and his remnants can no longer be found. We are too ready to jump in and write off systems that have a history of pulsing up and down. I'm not hyping him, I'm being honest it just is what it is and that is how this works.

That is a HUGE area of moisture moving towards the islands.

We had flooding in the Carolinas from a similar set up.

A once powerful hurricane downgraded.

Falling apart....

...the huge pocket of moisture remained.

The rains came and followed.

So as always this is what I say.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm is more than it's center.

It's more than the cone that tracks the center.

It's more than how strong the winds in the center are...

...when stronger winds around found far to it's East.

The storm is one system moving intact across a region.

You have to view the whole system as a threat.

The Islands are threatened.

It's huge compared to the Islands.

So it will affect many areas with many problems.

Let's hope and pray it's just a strong few rainy days.

But knowing the problems of mudslides and flooding..

..we need to be concerned about those.

Not whether it's 40 mph or 50 mph.

Not whether it's running "naked"... 

... convection sheared to it's East of the center.

The whole mass is moving WEST.

Or specifically WNW at 14 MPH.

These are the facts.

Yes Kirk's between a rock and a hard place.

That does not diminish the threat to the Islands.

Luckily it's a tropical storm and not a Cat 5.

Still it holds a threat of severe weather.

So when you see Tweets such as this...

...remember the weather is the problem not the center.

We should have learned that from Florence.

Good graphic.

It doesn't diminish the weather the Islands will see.

That's a lot of weather.

Down the road?

Time will tell.

Kirk has often found ways to escape....

... death and destruction.

Keep watching.

As for Leslie..........

She has a name from the past.

The blast from the past is coming back.

90% Chances at 2 PM.

Another big, huge system compelling.

Hard not to stare.

People are staring.

People are talking.

Everyone is talking Leslie.

Except the NHC.

Imagine at 5 or 11 that will change.

It's not threatening the islands.

It's not trapped in the GOM.

It's not threatening NYC.

So they can bide their time.

Figure out how to handle Leslie again.

What your take away should be here is this.

There's a new wave coming off of Africa.

The hurricane season is far from over.

It's not 2017. 

MDR is a foreign, unfriendly place.

But as we move into October...

..we begin to look at the Caribbean and GOM.

Or the Florida Straits and dying cold fronts.

And cold fronts are on the move.

Models for Leslie show it out there.

The old cone showed it moving West.

I know scares people who just dealt with Florence.

Take it with Sea Salt.

This is a Sargasso Sea Storm for now.

And what is different now from Florence?

We have stronger cold fronts.

And it should eventually go away.

When I can't say.

For sure?

I can't say anything for sure now.

We need to watch it.

IT as in the system.

Not the models.

Models are fun.

I love models.

But I look first at satellite loops.

Then the models.

Then wait a day or so ....

Note the two images below.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Bottom Line.

1. A large (size wise) tropical storm with winds stronger than just in the center of 50 mph is moving en masse towards the islands and people will be dealing with it. Kirk is forecast to die from shear in the Caribbean, but we have seen many a storm do this and then come back to life. This is NOT Harvey, this is Kirk but Harvey was counted out about this time in it's track while many whispered on worries down the line. I heard many people laugh it off. Never laugh off a storm that has come back to life stronger than it was in warm tropical waters. This is not 2017 this is not Harvey but the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are littered with storms that made landfall that were downgraded or fell apart or reborn from remnants of a storm in the same exact place that gave it up to shear and then came back. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey

Read the link.

Look at the track.

Not all that different.

Except the pattern today is not what it was in 2017.

But it's a lesson or should be.

2. Leslie is far out to sea fun to watch but nothing to worry about today. Yes it has been an odd year. Do we get a Subtropical Storm or a Gale Center or a Subtropical Hurricane or directed to some other division that handles storms at sea that the NHC doesn't want to deal with ??? Time will tell.

3. It's that time of year that we watch any convection that moves into areas where fronts die out and collide and that can become players down the tropical road.

Here are the fronts and the weather across the USA.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Nothing is threatening the US for the next 7 days.

People are threatened in the Islands from Kirk.

What was Leslie and probably will be again..

..is a beautiful system to watch on satellite imagery.

Should something develop.......

...it will all be about timing and the fronts.

Fronts and the placement of the High.

Now....

7 days from now.

Have a great day.

It was nice feeling a drop of fall in Maryland.

Wednesday it evaporated and I took the leggings off.

The cowboy boots I haven't worn in months were fun.

Just wait it out and it cools off.

Between now and then....

I think there will be an October Hurricane.

Somewhere... where?

Keep watching.

The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel is awesome.

So is that one by Kent Island.

You put the windows down.

Open the sunroof.

Feel the wind... the breeze.

Watch the pelicans flying about.

The ships gliding about.

If you haven't ever done it.

Do it.

Way better than the 7 Mile Bridge.

And I love the 7 mile bridge.

Watched the sun setting over it yesterday.

No reason to "chase" 98L

OBX had 1 mph winds out of the West.

Warm in the 80s.

No thanks.

I like wind, real wind.

And a great sunset.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...the restaurant store was closed :(

Love that place.

Nice place to sit, get coffee and stare at the water and ships and birds.

A way better view during the storm.

Sandy.... now that's wild.

Driven it in quiet weather and real weather.

Windows down.... wild

Imagine if we had a bridge like that to Cuba..

...from Key West.

Just imagine.

Updated! CARIBBEAN GETS A YELLOW CIRCLE. NORMAN IN PACIFIC GOES MAJOR IN A BIG WAY. PTC6 Forms. Potential Tropical Storm. Forecast to be a TS in 24 Hrs or Less, Hurricane Down the Road. Name Will Be Florence. Tropical Wave Closer to SE Coast Being Watched. More Updates Later Today.

7 PM Update.

Things worth thinking on.

The X is where the area is currently.

The circle is where it is expected to form.

Remember this is a forecast it's not set in stone.

Expected is the key word.

Anywhere in that bigger circle.

The long awaited yellow circle in the Carib is here.

So now what? 

We watch it.

Again it will go where there is low pressure.

It will stay away from high pressure.

If shear is weak, it develops more.

Let us look at the two pictures below.

Picasso couldn't do better than Mother Nature.

Note the large area of convection in the GOM

Near where the current yellow circle is....

...note the large wave bottom right.

It has a look the wave... just saying.

I wouldn't be surprised if it develops.

Again note the closeness of the convection to it's NW.

There is a high aloft.

It only has one place to go.

High pressure to the North.

It goes WNW towards the Low Pressure.

I'm not saying it's super low pressure there now..

(Jim... talking comparatively, where there's convection... 

... the pressures are lower than to the North)

So keep watching.

Note there are already heavy rains in PR.

You don't need a name to get dangerous amounts of rain.

Note everyone's watching the shear charts.

As lowered shear will tell much of the story.

Now as for PTC6 

(almost rhymes...

PEE TEE CEE 6 ..see?)

To be clear what a PTC6 is I've shown Phil's post.

Phil is a friend. He is a good man.

A very good meteorologist.

Good explanation....

..as it can be confusing.

Now why am I talking about Norman?

I say all the time the Pacific is not my ocean...

It's a good lesson in how fast things can change.

Norman was expected to develop some...

But nowhere near as strong as it is..

Note the following discussion.

Yesterday... 

Expected to top out at 125 MPH.

Your regular run of the mill discussion.

Later Wednesday.
SHIPS model mentioned.

Rapid Intensification very high.

Talk on the ridge, direction, etc.

Expected to top out at 130 MPH.

Tonight.

150 MPH.

20 MPH more than forecast.

Now they are forecasting 155 MPH...

How high can it go?

My goodness.

I don't really mean to be sarcastic.
I mean to educate that hurricanes are unpredictable.

Even in today's age with good modeling.

Luckily Norman isn't threatening land.

Now replace Norman with the Labor Day Hurricane.

Wilma when she exploded... 

Katrina in the GOM

Never believe a forecast 100%

In the 24 hour it's solid.

3 Day forecast is very good usually.

5 Day is often good.

But when someone tells you:

"It's a fish storm"

"Stick a fork in it.. it's all over"

Do not believe it until you see it.

The NHC corrects in real time ...

...responding to what the storm does.

Models correct to reality as well.

If a hurricane is out there somewhere near you...

...or way to the South of you or SE..

Watch it.

If a strong tropical wave is forecast to develop some..

... pay attention.

Check back often.

Andrew was supposed to catch the trof to the Carolinas.

Andrew was supposed to die and was on life support.

Then something changed.

Remember that.

I'll update as needed.

If you haven't read this earlier...

...continue reading.

If not... 

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

* * *

Guess we can call today a day of Live Blogging. Not making a new post for a Potential Tropical Cyclone though the name is a good call as it's still crawling off the coast of Africa as seen below on images I've posted. Forecast discussion shows their solid belief that this becomes the 3rd Hurricane of the 2018 Hurricane Season (if you are keeping track) so not such a slow season number wise even if many were Subtropical Storms or short lived storms.

Kind of an "in abundance of caution"

They need to designate it to put up watches and warnings.

Government agencies have rules you know.

Rules are often good to have.

Guidelines.

Something I want you to think on as in "notice" in that it is a common signature as the tropics heat up. You can see where our undeveloped Tropical Wave in the Caribbean is on a thin leash of moisture to the ITCZ in the Atlantic that goes all the way back to what will be Florence. This is how storms connect and stay alive. They need moisture. Often there is a hand off of energy from one area to the other as the tropical waves progress West. Note how it sucks up the "orange energy" from the ITCZ in the MDR (Main Development Region of the Atlantic) and then starts to suck up energy from moisture down near South America. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

The link is above if this doesn't work well.

You never know with this site so posting the link as well.

Stay tuned.

More updates later as information is updated.

From earlier today.

Note the discussion on the Tropical Wave in the Carib below.

And it's something to watch.

NWS New Orleans is watching it.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=LIX

DaBuh posted it earlier today.

He's good.

He knows where to look ....

...especially when it comes to waves.

(he's a surfer... it's a joke....smile)

Miami NWS is watching it also.

You don't need a yellow circle from the NHC..

...to know something's out there.

See Miami discussion below.

NOT in the Long Term though.

Let's call it the Labor Day Tropical Wave for now.

* * *

We went from a wave to PTC6 in hours ...

...after it rolled off of Africa.

How bout those water temps now?

We are heading into tropical trouble now.

September Remember

All the basics are up on Spaghetti Models.

Models in the short term show a Fish Storm.

F for Florence the Fish Storm.

But down the road things might change.

Is the strong high really opening up wide?

Could it snap back shut?

We will know soon enough.

NRL has the page up but few images yet.

We have just begun studying it.

That will change.

Well that's a done deal. You can see the circulation tightly wound up below. Watches and warnings will need to be hoisted it seems for the Cabo Verde Islands. Expect a Tropical Depression to form soon from the short lived Invest 90L that is being studied. I'll update this later today as watches and warnings are posted and there is more actual discussion on Invest 90L that will become Florence it seems soon. Doubtful the tropical wave in the Caribbean could develop that fast to steal that name from what is already a done deal.

https://earth.nullschool.net

Mike has the link always on his site.

Great produce.

www.spaghettimodels.com

You don't have to ask why they need to put out a package.

Often the CV Islands are the first to see the storm.

The product above tells the story.

The story's name is Florence.

You can see her clearly shown below.

This has been forecast for days to be a "Fish Storm"

Though again I have low confidence

Track is set for the next 3 to 5 days.

Beyond that I'll wait to see what develops.

I'll update later as information comes in.

As for the tropical wave close to the US that everyone is watching, but the NHC has not yet designated in tropical update as of 8 AM. That could change, but the wave itself has to change or get into a better place int he atmosphere to allow development. What concerns me is that South Florida has been plagued daily by strong thunderstorms as one tropical wave after another has crossed over that area for the last few months. They are just waves and they amp up the already unstable air into huge colorful displays of monsoonal masterpieces as people try to navigate through the traffic on I95 while taking pictures of what seems like end of the world storms. My daughter was stuck in flooding on I95 in one of those storms as the water on the highway rose fast and luckily she was able to get where she is going and drain out the car.......  

So should anything develop and get into that sweet spot where low pressure is more available and the shear is low, the tropical wave could go from nothing much to something really fast. That happens often as the waters that surround the Florida peninsular are close to 90 degrees this time of year. So while there is nothing there currently we have to watch carefully when we see a strong "robust" tropical wave that stubbornly made it across the Atlantic despite SAL and lower water temperatures and strong shear there as well. Keep watching. 

You know it's September in Miami when you wake up to "Morning Rain" and that's a sign the pattern has changed, the calendar page is about to be turned and we remember it's prime time in the tropics.

People from North Carolina to Texas this time of year begin evaluating each storm from their perspective as well as their own excellent knowledge of the hurricane history in their own part of the world. No one has to remind New Orleans as www.nola.com knows as they re dealing with the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina this week. 

Stay tuned.......it's that time of year when those tropical waves begin to Twist and Shout even if they are screaming "Fish Storms" we always have to watch them as they are prone to do some unexpected things.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter