UPDATED! Tropics .... Kirk Exits Stage Left, Subtropical Leslie Got Her Name Back. Rosa Off Broadway Coming to a Desert in the SW USA Soon. Where Does Her Moisture Go? Tsunami in Indonesia, Hurricane in Mediterranean? Earthquake in Caribbean on Island Dealing With Kirk.

The long awaited for Subtropical Storm Leslie is back.

Officially.

Updating the blog for the upgraded status of  Subtropical Storm Leslie at 5 PM. You can see how it began to really fill in and convection wrap around the center in images I posted on Twitter while talking to friends about her and her potential drama. You can read the discussion on the logic of the NHC but the image below tells the tale.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282047.shtml

Convection totally wrapped around the center.

Currently Bermuda might watch Leslie carefully.

We will talk on Leslie more down the road.

I think it's very possible she becomes a hurricane...

...later after transitioning to a tropical system.

As for Kirk....

...he's on borrowed time.

Some interesting news from the Caribbean.

The same island dealing with Kirk...

...just had a fairly strong earthquake.

As Jim reminded me.

He has a link on webpage with news from affected islands.

Duly noted and sharing that information.

I was on the phone with one of my kids.

I do have a life besides weather you know....

Another interesting story comes from the Mediterranean.

Crazy surf.

Look how neatly that fits in the Mediterranean.

How impressive is that?

Further away but just as interesting.
There was a Tsunami in Indonesia...
.... after a strong Earthquake.
Mike posted this on his webpage.

Video found online. 

Been passed around on Twitter all day.

Seems there's a lot going on.

Tropics are active geologically and meteorologically. 

Stay tuned....

Should get more interesting over the next week.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

* * *

Tropical Games.

Late September of 2018.

Cooler water temperatures initially.

Strong, long lived Saharan Dust.

MDR shut down for huge Canes.

So what happens?

Mother Nature turns things around.

Shakes things up.

Plays by her rules.

Tropical energy goes elsewhere.

Tropical energy finds a way.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

Watch that loop.

What was Leslie and will be again...

...is encapsulated by SAL.

Florence was as well.

And yet Florence found a way.

She took the far North path ....

...she went where few have ever gone.

If you loop that loop.

You will see the way shear...

..cleared out the Caribbean.

SAL not getting in there.

Neither have been hurricanes.

But they may form somewhere there soon.

The long term models show lowered pressures.

The pattern as we move into October hints at it.

Good Tweet from a good friend.

It's not locked in.

But most likely something will develop.

October and November...

Are about the Caribbean and GOM.

Often storms that fall apart....

...come back to life or more so..

Their moisture goes elsewhere.

Weather is about flow.

Look at the flow between Kirk & X Leslie.

You wonder where Leslie is getting that moisture?

In a sea of SAL?

Look at that long leash.

And Leslie is whipping the leash.

Slowly a center is filling in.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf

Long tentacles of moisture being sucked up...

Into the huge vortex that was Leslie.

That is being tracked by the ....

High Seas Forecasts.

Please refer to the NWS.

The new methodology of the NHC...

...is an extension of the NWS it seems.

That's my thought.

The culture there seems to have changed.

More people from the NWS move into place.

It's their way of doing things.

It's their call.

Jokingly I told a friend...

..they won't name Leslie...

..until they kill off Kirk :)

We joke a lot in meteorology.

We compare things to football....

...or movies or science fiction shows.

So where do we stand now regarding Kirk?

Still there moving WNW now.

Movement has been erratic for last day or so.

Generally West into the Caribbean.

Cone shown below.

Models show:

Truth is Kirk will battle shear as he tries to move Westward. He will fall apart, his movement will slow down and his convection will be displaced. The problem with Kirk really is that his convection is constantly being displaced and that convection will cause flooding over a longer period of time for some of the islands. A fast moving, small well wrapped storm would have whipped it's moisture with it deep into the Caribbean... but that is not happening. So there has been some minor flooding that could become worse in the Islands. That IS Kirk. That IS WEATHER and that is what this is all about. It's not all about finding the one wave that will become a Killer Category 5 Storm remembered for all time, though that does happen, it's about weather and in this case tropical weather. So all jokes aside and I do love the jokes... Kirk is causing trouble in the Caribbean Islands now. XLeslie is slowly building back to being Leslie and another cyclone in the EPAC named Rosa will move up towards Mexico and her moisture will move deep into the desert SE causing more flooding and then her moisture will mingle with westbound frontal systems and that is what weather is all about. You can Google it or look it up on Twitter but it's not being shown much on the news today. Remember the Islands have elevation so water runs downhill there often so you have flooding and more flooding and it's not as bad as North and South Carolina from Florence but much troubling weather from a minimal tropical storm.

We will possibly revisit Kirk down the road.

Or the moisture remaining from X Kirk.

Now let's talk about Rosa.

Nice name.. I know.

Rosa becomes part of USA weather.

Weather flows always.

He makes great maps.

Models shown below.

PLEASE... be aware of the FLOODING threat.

Please know campers in the desert southwest...

May deal with strong, flash floods.

Tropical rain in the desert is never a good thing.

But rain falling over farmland is...

It's all about timing and location.

Rain is a blessing...

...it can be a curse too.

Cranky has maps he makes.

I write. I write and describe.

I'll show this map and remind you.

It's not over til the end of October.

The ap below shows where systems may form.

Atlantic has candy stripes.

North Atlantic has dark red.

Then our eyes turn to SW Carib....

..and the Yucatan area.

I'll talk more on this another time.

By Sunday Kirk should be gone....

... Leslie should get her  name back.

This is the time between Florence.........

...and the next big storm.

It's about Pumpkin Spice Lattes.

Football.

Politics.

Changing leaves, falling leaves.

Stalled cold fronts in the Carolinas.

Then stronger ones that push through.

And the Earth is always moving.

Earthquakes... 

Meteorologists love geology.

Geologists love meteorology.

My advice in this turbulent time in which we live.

Find some music you love ....

..and enjoy it alone or with someone you love.

Whatever rocks your boat.

I love weather and I love my friends.

I love my family.

I love.

I love the water vapor loop :)

I love the way everything flows.... 

My taste in music evolves.

Always evolve.

Always find your flow...

..and go with it.

(love love love this song)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter..

Ps... special thanks ... 

Kirk. Leslie. Storms ... Take Them as WEATHER Not Just About the Center or the Wind Strength. Kirk is a Huge Mass of Convection and Wind Moving Towards the Islands. New Wave Off Africa. Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Beat's Out OBX on a Windless Day.

Ok, I am back home and watching the tropics along with all the breaking news of the day. So excuse me for not posting earlier. I slept very late and am watching the news like everyone while looping loops and trying to think just what to say here. I want to point out the reality vs the sublime, academic meteorological discussion that takes away from it the reality of life and what people are dealing with when facing any tropical entity. There are two huge systems below, both different and yet both similar in that they are easily recognized and compelling.

A storm by any name and in this case Kirk needs to be taken for what it is and not simply picked apart by academics living far away from the islands in it's path. The fact that it is a Tropical Storm vs a Category 1 Hurricane or God Forbid a Cat 5 is true, but this particular tropical storm carries with it strong winds far from it's center and huge amounts of tropical moisture. The center as always out runs the moisture but the problem with that this time is that where the center goes the moisture is going to follow. Out in the Atlantic it simply fell apart and then intensified again when it found warmer water and less wind shear. That's worth remembering as everyone is glad to stick a fork in Kirk and proclaim him dead as we had done that before and he's back again. I'm not saying he will come back if he falls apart as forecast but I am saying it's logical that him remnants can come back a second time until the last rainstorm dries up and his remnants can no longer be found. We are too ready to jump in and write off systems that have a history of pulsing up and down. I'm not hyping him, I'm being honest it just is what it is and that is how this works.

That is a HUGE area of moisture moving towards the islands.

We had flooding in the Carolinas from a similar set up.

A once powerful hurricane downgraded.

Falling apart....

...the huge pocket of moisture remained.

The rains came and followed.

So as always this is what I say.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm is more than it's center.

It's more than the cone that tracks the center.

It's more than how strong the winds in the center are...

...when stronger winds around found far to it's East.

The storm is one system moving intact across a region.

You have to view the whole system as a threat.

The Islands are threatened.

It's huge compared to the Islands.

So it will affect many areas with many problems.

Let's hope and pray it's just a strong few rainy days.

But knowing the problems of mudslides and flooding..

..we need to be concerned about those.

Not whether it's 40 mph or 50 mph.

Not whether it's running "naked"... 

... convection sheared to it's East of the center.

The whole mass is moving WEST.

Or specifically WNW at 14 MPH.

These are the facts.

Yes Kirk's between a rock and a hard place.

That does not diminish the threat to the Islands.

Luckily it's a tropical storm and not a Cat 5.

Still it holds a threat of severe weather.

So when you see Tweets such as this...

...remember the weather is the problem not the center.

We should have learned that from Florence.

Good graphic.

It doesn't diminish the weather the Islands will see.

That's a lot of weather.

Down the road?

Time will tell.

Kirk has often found ways to escape....

... death and destruction.

Keep watching.

As for Leslie..........

She has a name from the past.

The blast from the past is coming back.

90% Chances at 2 PM.

Another big, huge system compelling.

Hard not to stare.

People are staring.

People are talking.

Everyone is talking Leslie.

Except the NHC.

Imagine at 5 or 11 that will change.

It's not threatening the islands.

It's not trapped in the GOM.

It's not threatening NYC.

So they can bide their time.

Figure out how to handle Leslie again.

What your take away should be here is this.

There's a new wave coming off of Africa.

The hurricane season is far from over.

It's not 2017. 

MDR is a foreign, unfriendly place.

But as we move into October...

..we begin to look at the Caribbean and GOM.

Or the Florida Straits and dying cold fronts.

And cold fronts are on the move.

Models for Leslie show it out there.

The old cone showed it moving West.

I know scares people who just dealt with Florence.

Take it with Sea Salt.

This is a Sargasso Sea Storm for now.

And what is different now from Florence?

We have stronger cold fronts.

And it should eventually go away.

When I can't say.

For sure?

I can't say anything for sure now.

We need to watch it.

IT as in the system.

Not the models.

Models are fun.

I love models.

But I look first at satellite loops.

Then the models.

Then wait a day or so ....

Note the two images below.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Bottom Line.

1. A large (size wise) tropical storm with winds stronger than just in the center of 50 mph is moving en masse towards the islands and people will be dealing with it. Kirk is forecast to die from shear in the Caribbean, but we have seen many a storm do this and then come back to life. This is NOT Harvey, this is Kirk but Harvey was counted out about this time in it's track while many whispered on worries down the line. I heard many people laugh it off. Never laugh off a storm that has come back to life stronger than it was in warm tropical waters. This is not 2017 this is not Harvey but the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are littered with storms that made landfall that were downgraded or fell apart or reborn from remnants of a storm in the same exact place that gave it up to shear and then came back. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey

Read the link.

Look at the track.

Not all that different.

Except the pattern today is not what it was in 2017.

But it's a lesson or should be.

2. Leslie is far out to sea fun to watch but nothing to worry about today. Yes it has been an odd year. Do we get a Subtropical Storm or a Gale Center or a Subtropical Hurricane or directed to some other division that handles storms at sea that the NHC doesn't want to deal with ??? Time will tell.

3. It's that time of year that we watch any convection that moves into areas where fronts die out and collide and that can become players down the tropical road.

Here are the fronts and the weather across the USA.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Nothing is threatening the US for the next 7 days.

People are threatened in the Islands from Kirk.

What was Leslie and probably will be again..

..is a beautiful system to watch on satellite imagery.

Should something develop.......

...it will all be about timing and the fronts.

Fronts and the placement of the High.

Now....

7 days from now.

Have a great day.

It was nice feeling a drop of fall in Maryland.

Wednesday it evaporated and I took the leggings off.

The cowboy boots I haven't worn in months were fun.

Just wait it out and it cools off.

Between now and then....

I think there will be an October Hurricane.

Somewhere... where?

Keep watching.

The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel is awesome.

So is that one by Kent Island.

You put the windows down.

Open the sunroof.

Feel the wind... the breeze.

Watch the pelicans flying about.

The ships gliding about.

If you haven't ever done it.

Do it.

Way better than the 7 Mile Bridge.

And I love the 7 mile bridge.

Watched the sun setting over it yesterday.

No reason to "chase" 98L

OBX had 1 mph winds out of the West.

Warm in the 80s.

No thanks.

I like wind, real wind.

And a great sunset.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...the restaurant store was closed :(

Love that place.

Nice place to sit, get coffee and stare at the water and ships and birds.

A way better view during the storm.

Sandy.... now that's wild.

Driven it in quiet weather and real weather.

Windows down.... wild

Imagine if we had a bridge like that to Cuba..

...from Key West.

Just imagine.

Kirk Energized... Beamed Back to Life Just Before the Islands. Watches and Warnings Up. Leslie Want's Her Chance Again Too! Stay Tuned. OBX Wild Card or a Gremlin?

The timeline of Kirk's Resurrection is shown below.

Officially a Tropical Storm Again.

That was late last night above.

Solid core of convection.

Nicely centered.

Twisting in motion across the ocean.

Trying to catch up on the tropics and everything else going on last night wasn't easy. I went online to find what looked like a well developed TD or TS that had less chances than the system in the middle of the Atlantic with better odds which seemed odd.. Kirk or XKirk was all the rage last night discussion wise as meteorologists compared notes on ASCAT passes and wind barbs and convection and made great cases for an upgrade as Kirk nears the Islands and in theory the Islands need to be warned. Oh ... and there were a lot of jokes being made as everyone seems to enjoy having the name Kirk around to use. According to the official forecast from the NHC Kirk will stay on the list as they have upgraded it and announced it most likely won't last much longer than to warn the islands. Time will tell on that one and I think Kirk is going to stay on Island Time as in doing things his own way as he has so far since he rolled off of Africa.

NRL imagery showed a well defined Tropical Storm.

Winds too strong to be a Tropical Depression.

Map grid up in place.

ASCAT PASS

Good discussion from Morales.

I posted the picture below.

Powerful.

If that's wasn't a Tropical Storm.

It was the best looking tropical wave I'd ever seen.

You probably missed the 2 AM.....

It was upgraded to 90%

It was obvious where this was going.

And then at 5 AM

The NHC officially weighed in.

Kirk Again.

Watches and warnings up now.

(In theory all is right with the world again now)

The cone is similar to it's original cone.

Tone from the NHC is the same as well.

As in "don't expect much here"

In truth they are not really sure. The wind speed is there, it's hard to find the exact location of the center according to the NHC so they are sending in recon (logical) and we will keep watching it on satellite imagery. Mets will get some cat naps today to catch up on their sleep from watching the drama late last night.  NHC has it "post tropical" or a remnant low in 96 hours. There are some that feel it has a chance to be stronger than the suggested 50 MPH storm (which is only 5 more mph than it is currently) and it could linger around in some form or another and become a problem again later. Time will tell.

Reality has been that Kirk came off Africa with an impressively large mass of convection and a spin as well as some banding features. There were great expectations. It was supposed to plod along and be too close to the feature to it's North that should have finished it off, however it took off like a rocket ship (seriously) West bound on the South side of the forecast cone outrunning the feature that should have wiped it out and is still a contender to bring mischief to the Caribbean. It seems to have a desire to stay alive or more so have found ways to stay alive. Movement that fast hurt it as much as any "dry air" that the NHC wrote about in their discussion as a system moving that fast often out runs itself, leaving part of it behind and ending up not being properly stacked. I'd venture to say that it is closed off enough now for them to do what they did and hoist watches and warnings for the islands. It will either tighten up or continue along containing Tropical Storm force conditions over a large area. The models that matter have never loved it but it's consistently shown up and is back again. For how long remains the question.

Close up. 

Closed-ish.

Below you see the larger thumbprint.

The question as to what is going on remains.

But this is what it looks like today shown below.

One large strong blob of convection at it's center.

Amidst a larger pocket of convection around it.

Looking very similar to how it looked originally.

It's a system that bears watching carefully.

As for Leslie it too wants a second chance.

90% is basically a coming attraction.

It is coming soon back to life.

Gale force winds there.

Murky circulation.

Seems the signature currently for systems.

Models keep it around a while.

Models get odd with it.

Until we know what it does...

...we won't know.

Systems like this are less predictable.

Than your average westbound wave.

Actually X Leslie makes Kirk look good.

Speaking of unpredictable.

The gremlin off the Carolina coast is still there.

Hovering off shore.

Small area...

...kicking up again today a bit.

Most of the weather is off shore.

Strong weather to it's East.

Kind of an unknown.

An unknown with 20% chances.

NHC is tired of it...

..in my opinion.

It looked stronger the other day.

Yet they did not upgrade.

Imagine if the weather was left sided..

..maybe they might have.

Recon went in while I was offline.

They didn't find anything worth upgrading.

These are the players.

98L off of OBX

XKIRK back to being Kirk again.

Leslie about to get her name back.

A tropical wave behind Kirk.

Another about to come off of Africa.

We are moving towards the end of the CV season.

I am still expecting a system to form in the West Carib.

Or West Carib near GOM.

What lights the wick on this system is the question.

IF Kirk falls totally apart...

...sputters about and lingers maybe.

The system behind maybe.

There are things here that have yet to play their hand.

Kirk has always been straight forward.

In truth... large, moving west steadily. 

It's an interesting question if that changes.

Where's Dr. Spock when you need him?

I had a really nice holiday, rested probably too much as I could barely sleep last night. Good food, good conversation and weather cool enough to wear leggings and breathe cooler fresh air ...however it's warming up fast today. I'll be traveling today and will update later in the afternoon.... after we know more hard data on Kirk. Taking a scenic route back to North Carolina from Maryland. I had thought on going to the Outer Banks but not sure it's worth it today if 98L doesn't want to play or if the surf and wind isn't there. Lot's of nice places to go near where I am and on the way back so playing it by ear. Somewhere between here and there I'll figure that out. As for Kirk...stay tuned. As for Leslie... hard to get excited about her though she may put on a pretty show spinning in the Atlantic.

Big grid from www.spaghettimodels.com

Apparently Leslie is going to do figure 8s.

That will pretty much shut down that region.

But the region we are watching....

...is the Carib and GOM.

Oh and Kirk.

The wonderful adventures of Capt Kirk.

Always has to be so dramatic....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... Just want to add here. Think there's a bit of Bandit here with Kirk.

Either way he's Westbound and down.

Like an 18 wheeler rolling