Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 25, 2019

Updated! Olga & Pablo Form! Short Lived Olga & Small Pablo Within Huge Gale



We found OLGA...
Where we expected.
TD 17 now Olga...
Well...briefly.
Maybe longer than Imelda existed.
Pablo is my old N Atlantic Gale 98L


Don't they kind of look like bookends.
Opposite mirror like images.
Olga's adjacent Frontal System...
Takes up half of the USA
Pablo's signature takes up half the Atlantic.


NHC continues the editorializing ...
...funny headlines.
"during the next few hours"
(that long?)
"small tropical storm forms"
Um... yeah inside a huge system.

Track for OLGA below..


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT2+shtml/252035.shtml

Discussion from NHC above.

Below we have PABLO
Where ya gonna go Pablo....


Cities in the path of Pablo...



A strategic place in WW 1 I believe.
Google it ...

That's it.
I'm not going to discuss this further.
Danger with Olga is flooding and rain.
Cold weather coming.
I am becoming a believer on next week's storm.
We'll talk on that next week.

As for the N Atlantic.
Busy times up there this year.

Next name up is Rebekah.

Personally I thought we would hit that name.
Maybe Sebastien.. 
Hey at this rate we could get to Tanya.

November really does bring oddities in the tropics.
This whole season has felt a bit odd for sure.
But wayward wrong way storms.
Caribbean systems.. 
If any form and a front is near South Florida.
It might give them a scare.
Or cross over Cuba... 
Or who knows.
Welcome to 2019.
Olga and Pablo.
Scratch them off the list.
2 beautiful romantic type of names.

Why they upgraded computer info on Pablo 1st?
Who knows.
I no longer care.
My job here is to provide information.
Hopefully a bit of entertainment.
A bit of tropical discussion....
...history and geography.
Have a great weekend!
If you didn't read the blog already...
...please keep reading.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Theres's our world on Friday afternoon.
Oh did I mention this?


Hmnnnnn 
Yellow in Atlantic.
Next week might be interesting.

*****

Discussion from NHC below:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT3+shtml/252036.shtml?



Real time blogs are funny.
This is definitely the case of the missing Olga.
But as it's a live real time blog.
We will solve this mystery soon!



Note both our systems.


One looks like a large...well Pablo
Or Olga.
But 17 looks like a Cold front suddenly. 
Perhaps it's just in comparison...

From outer space on Earthunll...
...up above at the top.
You can see the real Tropical System.
The one deserving of a name.

 

Up to 80%
Can I get a name at 5 PM?
Pretty please?



Do we really have to wait til morning visible?

Check this out.


How odd.
Tropical Tidbits has it as Pablo.
Did I miss this while being off for an hour?
But let's look at it up close.
Kind of looked like it had an eye briefly.


M N O P
NRL has it as Pablo.
What happened to O?
Olga?

Maybe it's in the wind ....


Whether 17 is Olga or not soon.
Regardless....
Flooding and Heavy Rain remain the threat












Compare and contrast below.







Our 2 systems on both sides of the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression 17 


Cities in the path of TD 17 
Possibly Olga later today.


Good discussion as always.
Explains the behind the scenes thinking.
TD Discussion from NHC


1 thing to mention ...
... don't laugh it off as a weather maker.
Tornadoes... Water Spouts.
Severe Weather Rushing in North.

Tornado Warning in Gulfport MS
Currently.
Most likely waterspout on shore.

LIX_loop.gif (600×550)



Fast Summary of today's Blog.
Explanation of the discussion on yesterday's blog.
My fascination with the North Atlantic Gale.
Now Invest 98L raised to 50% chances.
Invest 97L now at 100% chances.

Introducing Invest 98L


GOM at 100%
TD 17... 

So which gets the name of Olga?
Such weather drama today.



Yesterday's blog.
Why would I lead with a N ATL Gale?
Because I knew it was coming.


(Cheerwine beat the PSL ones... just saying)

A look back at yesterday's blog.
Where do your eyes go.
Mine went to the N ATL Gale.
Tho the GOM gets high marks.
Weather wise high marks.
Location wise much closer to us.
But oh wow look at that Gale.
Takes up 1/3 of the Atlantic.



Today is the day weather people wait for at the end of the hurricane season when basically anything and everything goes and everything and anything is game to be named in the tropics. North Atlantic Gales out near the Azores get sudden upgraded attention and Gulf of Mexico Hybrid Systems hooking up with a cold front get named in some way as they head to important ports of call such as Nola and suddenly ride up the Mississippi River Valley vs taking yesterday's "carved in stone track" that leaned NE towards Georgia, North Florida and the Carolinas. Am I the only one who will admit or talk on how they totally pulled the model track for 97L to the West (left) and changed the orientation as it's moving fast, forming fast, falling into the pattern that the Cold Front is forcing as it merges into some wild weather maker. And.... as that pushes more to the North it whispers problems with the next system that may be colder, stronger and diving down deeper. As Dave Schwartz, of blessed memory, used to say... when something goes UP... something else comes down. The Atmosphere is like a wild ride at the fair, it's never stagnant it keeps on spinning.

Today is one Crazy Weather Day.
And next week (coming soon)
Going to be Crazy too!

Weather...
Greatest Show on Earth.


Again a real weather maker.



Things I wonder on...
Did anyone but me notice?
Or admit?
That they changed the track drastically.
Yesterday it went over me in NC
Now it's straight up the Mississippi River Valley
Because the front was stronger.
Diving fast... grabbing 97L
Next front dives deeper ... 

And below ... beautiful.
Our beautiful systems.
97L now TD 17
N ATL Gale now 98L
But look how it's all connected.






Look how it's all connected.
I'll live update today.
It's going to be a crazy weather day.
Note next week will be crazy too!

I'll correct any typos later.
Special thanks to Bulletproof Coffee
and... my asthma meds.
The State Fair was good..
...not as good as last year.
But a bit much for me.
But oh my gosh so much fun.

Quick look at Earthnull.
Understand October storms ..
..are rarely perfect.


From outer space it's all about 98L
But.. when something is near Nola..
It's all about Nola and Louisiana 
Not perfect.
Packing TS Winds...
...but just TD 17


98L wow... 
Azores. 
Big military base there..
Hmnnn




Much Love,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps...and they play country music.
Heard this song often.
So leaving it here now.
Great song.
Many great songs.


Or this song also is good............


First time I went to the NC State Fair.
They were playing Carolina Girls.
As I entered the gate...
...and I smiled.
Because the Southern Girl I was raised to be..
...finally found a real Southern Town.


Do you remember your first kiss?
Your REAL first kiss?
Your first hurricane?
Your first REAL HURRICANE?
Do you remember your first Fair?
Do you remember your first Circus?





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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:50 AM 0 comments

Sunday, August 25, 2019

UPDATED 11 PM Tropical Storm Dorian. Invest 98 Drama. A Look at Hurricanes Haiti Didn't Kill and the 1893 Sea Isle Hurricane in Georgia.

50 MPH
Still moving Westbound.




So far very steady at 14 MPH Westbound.
Maybe tomorrow things will change.
But I'd think this will stay this way for a bit.
50 MPH... definitely looks stronger.


Earliest arrival of winds...
...find your favorite location.


I know if you live in Florida that looks scary.



Has to battle shear and Haiti when it gets there
Dominican Republic....
Could it stay South of Hispaniola?
It's small.... 

Don't blink.....
Let's see how Dorian is in the morning.
And as for Invest 98L ...
I'll talk on it when it gets a name.
For now it's not bothering anyone.
Though down the road...
Could this be Chantal the Remake?

I went to watch the sunset today...
...outside Savannah by the marsh.
Peaceful, beautiful


Dorian's doing it's thing.
I'm going to sleep.
Let's start over in the morning.
Sweet Tropical Dreams.






This image above really says it all.
Top left near Florida we have Invest 98L
It shape shifted it's way North out over the Gulfstream.
Spoiler Alert the warm waters of there didn't help it much.
It's got convection today.
But it still lacks a closed signature.


Hard to find on the big earthnull image.
You can see the small system that is Dorian.
But you can barely make out Invest 98L



Remember the other day?
I posted an image and said it looked like the Loch Ness Monster.
It still does.


Lines up quite fine doesn't it?

I'm in Savannah.
I'm going to go over to the ocean.
Tybee Island... as close as I can get.
It may be a quiet trip or I'll take a ton of pics.
The reality is... until it does something it is what it is.
I think it is possible for it to develop.
And it's also possible it could bring strong weather far to the North.
Remember we talked on Newfoundland ... time will tell.
Strange things happen in the North Atlantic.
Chantal being a recent example.

Speaking of Canada.
On their big green IR satellite image below.
We see 98L yet....
...the moisture over Mississippi and Alabama.
Is stronger in ways.
Somewhere in that deep moisture plume....
....off the East Coast.
Erin may form.


As for Dorian their map is below.
A great map really.
So much info.




I just want to say a few things here. Everyone likes to look at Haiti and the Dominican Republic as if they were put there by Mother Nature to be a wind break for South Florida. That's really not the way it works and yes the tall mountains there break apart a strong hurricane, but often they reform into enough energy to slam into the Florida Keys or the Florida coast or be pulled North up towards the Carolinas. They are not a guarantee and in this case Dorian is a nice storm but a weak storm and it wouldn't take much to take it apart. We've been to this tropical rodeo before and yet many storms manage to regroup or keep going as if they weren't aware they hit road kill on their way WNW. Georges below is that hurricane that ignored every discussion explaining how it was soon going to pull more to the NW and kept going WNW all the way into Key West, the Gulf of Mexico and the GOM coast so don't tell people hit hard by Georges in Key West not to worry because the mountains in Haiti are high and strong and will kill the storm. They usually do but in this case strong shear might kill it before it gets close enough to slam into the mountains. 



Then there was Jeanne.
A hurricane that looked as if it was on the ropes.
Dying, gasping, looping around in the Atlantic.
Then it found it's groove again and turned WEST.
And slammed into the Florida coast.
Just after Frances slammed into the same part of the coast.



These are just examples.
Dorian isn't Beryl but similar.
Dorian isn't Donna or Georges or Jeanne.
But showing you some weather history.

Not much more I can add.
I have to be somewhere soon.
I have a date with sunset somewhere...
...and visiting some people.

And keep this in mind.... 
... some small storms fall apart and then come back together.





There's a track for Harvey.
It was there then it wasn't there....
....then it was there again.
Weak storms go West often.
Sometimes waiting for their swan song.
It was one hell of a swan song....

I may update later tonight if something happens.

The weather here is almost cool and beautiful.
I was here a few weeks ago.
I thought I was going to pass out.
It was the hottest I can remember it in ages.
But now a cooler wind is blowing.
The sunshine is warm.
Barely any humidity.
Yet storms are off to the East..


Nice.... good to get away and play.
Went to a beautiful program that was set up today.
Good food, nice people, music, dancing.

Gotta go before the sunsets without me.
Thanks for your patience and keep watching ....

Not every storm that forms is meant to be a Cat 4.
Not every storm that forms is a deadly storm.
Each storm is different.
Each storm is beautiful in it's way.
Especially far out over the Atlantic....
...where it can't hurt anyone.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time information.

Ps... Since I'm here it's a good time to remind you of this storm.
Sorry for any typos... 
... will fix them later.
Truly on a bit of a vacation.


My Ancestors looked a lot like this ...
...they lived in Key West.
They were battling Yellow Fever in 1893...
And often the ship that went to Key West...
...put into port in Savannah.
There was no Miami then...


The damage was severe....
Many died.
Epic bad storm.


Note how similar that track is to Georges...
...except higher up.
Tracing around the high pressure.


Something to think on ... 
...enjoy those weak storms like Dorian.
This is why my Grandma said....
...worry on the storms that go up over the Islands.







Okay, I'm back in my hotel room resting up a bit before going out later. Visiting friends in Savannah and taking a one last "summer vacation" of sorts and figured Invest 9L not doing much yet and with Dorian moving steadily West at 14 MPH today was a good day to get away and check out other things besides the visual imagery.


98L seems bonded to the trough reminding me very much of the other Inves that didn't make it beyond merging with the frontal boundary. Again this is a pattern we have going on and in some ways we are lucky, but as we move towards September we may run out of luck.




As the sun goes down on 98L it is still not a named entity.

You can see it's weak symbol below on the water vapor loop.
Pale Green off the Florida Georgia coast.


Dorian on the other hand has a visible signature.
It basically says "I'm a Tropical Storm!"
King Neptune seems to be staring down at it...
I can hear Neptune saying "it is what it is"



As for Dorian... it's really amazing that Dorian exists as she has been traveling the whole way through a dusty environment. It's a fighter that's for sure. One one level it's weak and small and yet again on another level in theory it wasn't expected to be there. The GFS loved it early on, the EURO ignored it and then they took turns liking it or unfriending it. So much weather drama here. Shear has been just low enough that it has been able to maintain it's balance.


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posted by BobbiStorm @ 4:06 PM 0 comments