Updated! Olga & Pablo Form! Short Lived Olga & Small Pablo Within Huge Gale

We found OLGA...

Where we expected.

TD 17 now Olga...

Well...briefly.

Maybe longer than Imelda existed.

Pablo is my old N Atlantic Gale 98L

Don't they kind of look like bookends.

Opposite mirror like images.

Olga's adjacent Frontal System...

Takes up half of the USA

Pablo's signature takes up half the Atlantic.

NHC continues the editorializing ...

...funny headlines.

"during the next few hours"

(that long?)

"small tropical storm forms"

Um... yeah inside a huge system.

Track for OLGA below..

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT2+shtml/252035.shtml

Discussion from NHC above.

Below we have PABLO

Where ya gonna go Pablo....

Cities in the path of Pablo...

A strategic place in WW 1 I believe.

Google it ...

That's it.

I'm not going to discuss this further.

Danger with Olga is flooding and rain.

Cold weather coming.

I am becoming a believer on next week's storm.

We'll talk on that next week.

As for the N Atlantic.

Busy times up there this year.

Next name up is Rebekah.

Personally I thought we would hit that name.

Maybe Sebastien.. 

Hey at this rate we could get to Tanya.

November really does bring oddities in the tropics.

This whole season has felt a bit odd for sure.

But wayward wrong way storms.

Caribbean systems.. 

If any form and a front is near South Florida.

It might give them a scare.

Or cross over Cuba... 

Or who knows.

Welcome to 2019.

Olga and Pablo.

Scratch them off the list.

2 beautiful romantic type of names.

Why they upgraded computer info on Pablo 1st?

Who knows.

I no longer care.

My job here is to provide information.

Hopefully a bit of entertainment.

A bit of tropical discussion....

...history and geography.

Have a great weekend!

If you didn't read the blog already...

...please keep reading.

Theres's our world on Friday afternoon.

Oh did I mention this?

Hmnnnnn 

Yellow in Atlantic.

Next week might be interesting.

*****

Discussion from NHC below:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT3+shtml/252036.shtml?

Real time blogs are funny.
This is definitely the case of the missing Olga.
But as it's a live real time blog.
We will solve this mystery soon!



Note both our systems.

One looks like a large...well Pablo

Or Olga.

But 17 looks like a Cold front suddenly. 

Perhaps it's just in comparison...

From outer space on Earthunll...
...up above at the top.
You can see the real Tropical System.
The one deserving of a name.

 

Up to 80%
Can I get a name at 5 PM?
Pretty please?



Do we really have to wait til morning visible?

Check this out.

How odd.

Tropical Tidbits has it as Pablo.

Did I miss this while being off for an hour?

But let's look at it up close.

Kind of looked like it had an eye briefly.

M N O P

NRL has it as Pablo.

What happened to O?

Olga?

Maybe it's in the wind ....

Whether 17 is Olga or not soon.

Regardless....

Flooding and Heavy Rain remain the threat

Compare and contrast below.

Our 2 systems on both sides of the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression 17 

Cities in the path of TD 17 

Possibly Olga later today.

Good discussion as always.

Explains the behind the scenes thinking.

TD Discussion from NHC

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT2+shtml/251432.shtml?

1 thing to mention ...

... don't laugh it off as a weather maker.

Tornadoes... Water Spouts.

Severe Weather Rushing in North.

Tornado Warning in Gulfport MS

Currently.

Most likely waterspout on shore.

#tropicaldepression #TD17 not #Olga (oh...could #98L be Olga?) what a day... tropically speaking kind of like a new reality TV show... #weather #drama https://t.co/vEWhwZSiWe

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) October 25, 2019

Fast Summary of today's Blog.

Explanation of the discussion on yesterday's blog.

My fascination with the North Atlantic Gale.

Now Invest 98L raised to 50% chances.

Invest 97L now at 100% chances.

Introducing Invest 98L

GOM at 100%

TD 17... 

So which gets the name of Olga?

Such weather drama today.

Yesterday's blog.

Why would I lead with a N ATL Gale?

Because I knew it was coming.

(Cheerwine beat the PSL ones... just saying)

A look back at yesterday's blog.

Where do your eyes go.

Mine went to the N ATL Gale.

Tho the GOM gets high marks.

Weather wise high marks.

Location wise much closer to us.

But oh wow look at that Gale.

Takes up 1/3 of the Atlantic.

Today is the day weather people wait for at the end of the hurricane season when basically anything and everything goes and everything and anything is game to be named in the tropics. North Atlantic Gales out near the Azores get sudden upgraded attention and Gulf of Mexico Hybrid Systems hooking up with a cold front get named in some way as they head to important ports of call such as Nola and suddenly ride up the Mississippi River Valley vs taking yesterday's "carved in stone track" that leaned NE towards Georgia, North Florida and the Carolinas. Am I the only one who will admit or talk on how they totally pulled the model track for 97L to the West (left) and changed the orientation as it's moving fast, forming fast, falling into the pattern that the Cold Front is forcing as it merges into some wild weather maker. And.... as that pushes more to the North it whispers problems with the next system that may be colder, stronger and diving down deeper. As Dave Schwartz, of blessed memory, used to say... when something goes UP... something else comes down. The Atmosphere is like a wild ride at the fair, it's never stagnant it keeps on spinning.

Today is one Crazy Weather Day.

And next week (coming soon)

Going to be Crazy too!

Weather...

Greatest Show on Earth.

Again a real weather maker.

Things I wonder on...

Did anyone but me notice?

Or admit?

That they changed the track drastically.

Yesterday it went over me in NC

Now it's straight up the Mississippi River Valley

Because the front was stronger.

Diving fast... grabbing 97L

Next front dives deeper ... 

And below ... beautiful.

Our beautiful systems.

97L now TD 17

N ATL Gale now 98L

But look how it's all connected.

Greatest Show on Earth. #weather #tropics #Olga & North Atlantic Gale maybe system too https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS #writing pic.twitter.com/wYE3sJigtg

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) October 25, 2019

Look how it's all connected.

I'll live update today.

It's going to be a crazy weather day.

Note next week will be crazy too!

I'll correct any typos later.

Special thanks to Bulletproof Coffee

and... my asthma meds.

The State Fair was good..

...not as good as last year.

But a bit much for me.

But oh my gosh so much fun.

Quick look at Earthnull.

Understand October storms ..

..are rarely perfect.

From outer space it's all about 98L

But.. when something is near Nola..

It's all about Nola and Louisiana 

Not perfect.

Packing TS Winds...

...but just TD 17

98L wow... 

Azores. 

Big military base there..

Hmnnn

Much Love,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps...and they play country music.

Heard this song often.

So leaving it here now.

Great song.

Many great songs.

Or this song also is good............

First time I went to the NC State Fair.

They were playing Carolina Girls.

As I entered the gate...

...and I smiled.

Because the Southern Girl I was raised to be..

...finally found a real Southern Town.

Do you remember your first kiss?

Your REAL first kiss?

Your first hurricane?

Your first REAL HURRICANE?

Do you remember your first Fair?

Do you remember your first Circus?

11 PM.. UPDATED....... 65 MPH TROPICAL STORM BERYL in the Atlantic. Still Forecast to Briefly Be a Hurricane.

This is Beryl at 11 PM

65 MPH winds.

Small circulation.

Headed towards the Islands.

But many questions remain.

Discussion below tells the story.

A 5 Nautical Mile Diameter eye.

Solid CDO

Battling Westbound.

Models disagree (big surprise)

Some keeping it more to the South.

Others more to the North.

What else is new?

I mean it's not stalling out.

NHC forecasts it briefly becomes a hurricane.

That would be a neat trick.

It is so small we are using microwave imagery to see it.

It's too far to the East for Recon.

Poor Beryl.

Everyone's making fun of it.

It's small. 

No denying that.

But it exists on a cooler than normal ocean...

...in a sea of SAL.

Impressive none the less.

Close up... you can see the swirl that is Beryl.

There see. 

Being honest here Beryl existing at all is a neat trick and it's something that should be studied more in that the way it is able to stay alive has happened many times in the past as small circulations insulate themselves from the negative environmental features around it. I'll give the example of small well built one story homes that usually have less damage than large sprawling homes with decorative features that catch the wind in a hurricane. In a hurricane you hunker down way low somewhere safe. You don't go driving a 18 wheeler down the highway as if nothing is out there. You hunker down in a bathtub with a mattress over you and try to ride out the storm. Beryl is in ways laying low and protecting her circulation as much as she can but to be honest there is strong shear and dry air everywhere. And, yet she managed to become a 65 MPH Tropical Storm. Really "tiny" storms like this need to be analyzed more and yet we would prefer to watch big picture perfect intense cyclones like Maria in the Pacific looking as intense as Maria did last year in the Atlantic. Speaking of Maria another one intensified today in the Pacific headed towards China; possibly Shanghai. 

Yeah that happened today.

Maria is headed towards China.

Hoping that changes over the next few days.

For now Beryl is headed towards the Islands.

They will most likely get some rain out of it.

Could the Atlantic Basin see a hurricane of this size?

Yes, possibly (even this year) but not now.

Late in the summer as we move towards Fall.

The East Coast and other areas need to be on guard.

And in the Carolinas........

we are waiting for this cold front to drop down.

I'm waiting. 

Point of historical reference. The last intense storm to hit Shanghai (which happens rarely) was in 2012. Again there are similarities this year to that year and my fears for hurricane problems on the East Coast later in the hurricane season have not mitigated in any way. So stay informed. Stay aware and stay hurricane strong in all ways.

Please keep reading if you have not done so today you can see the evolution of how Invest 95L became Tropical Depression #2 and then became the 2nd Tropical Storm of the 2018 Hurricane Season.  June and July usually are filled with "junk storms" or mediocre mess that form close in along the coast or are large messy subtropical systems in the Atlantic. This is officially the season but.... it's like watching a Pre Season football game. It's fun, it's interesting, it's something to watch at least but everyone knows what matters happens later in the season. The same with the Hurricane Season.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

5 PM
Advisory out of NHC

50 Mph.

Now forecast to attain HURRICANE Status

First the cone.

Discussion points out what I said before.

Beryl is a bit of a QUANDARY 

Good word.

I chose it for a reason.

From my blog yesterday.

Beryl still remains a quandary.

Note discussion from NHC below.

As I have said over and over.

Small cyclones are hard to forecast.

Hard to read and evaluate.

Prone to flaring up fast.

Fading away fast.

Hard to forecast.

New discussion uses the H word.

Hurricane.

Key points below:

Note I often show the "wind probs"

Previously there were none expected.

Now they are there albeit low.

Intensity models show this possibility.

Not all models kill it off before the islands.

Strength shown below

Again models offer suggestions.

Possibilities for what will be.

We forecast with them in mind.

But models are historically bad with small cyclones.

Beryl is small currently.

Keep watching.

96L up left.

Beryl lower right.

More updates later tonight

Keep reading the thoughts expressed ...

...are still valid and explain the Beryl

And what could be a TD off the East Coast next.

Hard to see but it's definitely there.

****

Fast moving times we live in.
As I said it would earlier....
... Tropical Storm Beryl forms in the Atlantic.
Honesty it was a TS earlier today.
But let's get back to the official facts.

#Selfie above.
Map grid below.

Good thoughts below.

True that too.

Understand that very small tropical cyclones can spin up rapidly, they can intensify rapidly and they can also fall apart just as rapidly. We are dealing with Tropical Storm Beryl one day at a time. It doesn't need to hit Portland Maine as a rare Category 2 after plowing through SAL, shear and a strong High Pressure Ridge. It makes history by being Tropical Storm Beryl on July 5th after forming despite a strong Saharan Dust outbreak in ocean waters marginally warm enough to support development. Where it goes from here is the rest of the story. It can possibly, briefly intensify fast and become stronger than forecast currently. I'll update later today.

Oh and Invest 96L was tagged also.

Off the East Coast.

You can see OBX in the far right.

Getting busy........

It's a small comment but it needs to be said.
The "area of formation" for 96L ....
...keeps creeping West.
It's now just West of 75W.
It should be watched just in case...
...things don't play out as forecast.
And it is being watched as it is not an Invest.

I'll update later.

Signing off at 3 PM.

Most likely I'll do a full update later tonight.

After the 5 PM advisory package ho TS Beryl.

Oh and know there is another strong wave behind Beryl.

I told you... 

SAL is ferocious this year.

But so are the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

What Beryl must be singing now...

* * *

Tropical Depression #2

Salient part of the Discussion.

Note the use of the term "small"

Size matters in this case.

Small systems are better able to form in SAL.

They kill off what will be TS Beryl before the Islands.

Decent signature.

Old NHC Home Page.

Compare and Contrast over time.

Leaving it here.

As soon as I saw this map I knew.

When the Navy map gets a grid.

An upgrade is forthcoming.

By the time you read this ....

...it will be TD 2

Our small stubborn tropical wave now known as Tropical Depression #2  that is consistently kicking up convection with what seems overall good structure albeit a small structure has high odds of becoming a named storm at any time; that name would be Tropical Storm Beryl if it is further upgraded. Understand this is a small TD and small systems can flare up fast and fade away just as fast. Small systems are also hard for the models to grab onto and therefore notoriously bad when it comes to busted forecasts based on models. The models did sniff this system out so that's impressive as it came together in a part of the Atlantic Basin that seems to have had a huge "NO FISHING" sign stuck up as being "CLOSED FOR BUSINESS" and just it's very existence as a Tropical Depression, a contender for the name Beryl shows how seriously we need to always take the Hurricane Season. Luckily it's far out at sea and forecast to fall apart as it moves further West. Some models show it intensifying at some point so until it forms I'll hold off on making any real predictions. Suffice it say moisture from this wave may make it's way up towards Florida later down the road. In odd picture below. The blue is the wave in a sea of Saharan Dust. I suppose where there's a will there really is a way.

Again our MDR TD2 is small.

Embedded in a region of moisture.

South of the region of SAL

Note the sudden flare up over Pittsburgh 

Worth noting the area off the East Coast is still there and I believe what ever could form is on a delayed time schedule as we wait for other weather events to happen. I will discuss that later on when something really starts to come together. But it's worth remembering while wondering on when and if and when Tropical Depression 2 becomes Tropical Storm Beryl.

Black and white visible below.

Nice structure.

Before the sun actually rose.

I love these shots.

You can see the actual system better.

Models

And there was the map grid up at the NRL site.

Usually a prelude to upgrade.

Note the center bright white ball of convection.

Note the CENTER

Closed Center.

Tropical Depression #2

Thoughts to think on....

It is not rare for a random tropical wave bust through the Saharan Dust and become a Tropical Depression or a named Tropical Storm. This happens often and usually it ends about the same. And, when they form in SAL they often have a very similar look. Check out the satellite image and track below. Above Chantal is on the left and TD2 on the right. Very similar. 

To me TD2  looks a bit like Woody the Woodpecker.

Note how similar TD 2 forecast to be Beryl is below.

This is yesterday not today.

Note SAL in both storms.

Yet they both formed.

I'll update later as events unfold.

Some of those models take off in intensity.

So it has some potential.

No one is expecting this Tropical Depression to turn into something that goes the distance many rounds in the ring and make it to Texas as a Category 3 or to slam into the Outer Banks as a Cat 2. The story is that we are tracking it despite negative conditions. The take away lesson is in any given week any tropical wave could make a break for it and stay alive in hostile conditions. Better far out at sea than close in under our nose being ignored. Weather happens fast be it a flash flood or the rapid intensification of what hitherto seemed a nothing westbound wave. Not expecting anything like that to happen, but again weather happens and climate is a look back at the history of weather over time. 

http://www.heinzhistorycenter.org/detre-library-archives/collection-highlights/pittsburgh-floods

Lastly Pittsburgh has flooding again. Pittsburgh is a river city and any football fan knows that as everyone knows 3 River Stadium; it's called that because Pittsburgh is a river city that was built in a region with hilly elevation and a history of floods. This year in particular it has been under siege from Mother Nature. Again I'm wondering on the Mid Atlantic and the inland areas associated with it as we move towards the heart of Hurricane Season. History has a way of repeating as we can see from Chantal and Invest 95L aka TD2. The story is always a bit different, but the basic story line is similar. 

Models are wonderful but it's good to know what's actually there and to know hurricane history. 

Stay tuned.....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

https://www.facebook.com/bobbistorm.5

Ps... Again history repeats. A look back at Chantal.