Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 05, 2018

11 PM.. UPDATED....... 65 MPH TROPICAL STORM BERYL in the Atlantic. Still Forecast to Briefly Be a Hurricane.




This is Beryl at 11 PM
65 MPH winds.
Small circulation.
Headed towards the Islands.
But many questions remain.



Discussion below tells the story.
A 5 Nautical Mile Diameter eye.
Solid CDO
Battling Westbound.
Models disagree (big surprise)
Some keeping it more to the South.
Others more to the North.
What else is new?
I mean it's not stalling out.
NHC forecasts it briefly becomes a hurricane.
That would be a neat trick.


It is so small we are using microwave imagery to see it.
It's too far to the East for Recon.


Poor Beryl.
Everyone's making fun of it.
It's small. 
No denying that.
But it exists on a cooler than normal ocean...
...in a sea of SAL.
Impressive none the less.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Close up... you can see the swirl that is Beryl.


There see. 

Being honest here Beryl existing at all is a neat trick and it's something that should be studied more in that the way it is able to stay alive has happened many times in the past as small circulations insulate themselves from the negative environmental features around it. I'll give the example of small well built one story homes that usually have less damage than large sprawling homes with decorative features that catch the wind in a hurricane. In a hurricane you hunker down way low somewhere safe. You don't go driving a 18 wheeler down the highway as if nothing is out there. You hunker down in a bathtub with a mattress over you and try to ride out the storm. Beryl is in ways laying low and protecting her circulation as much as she can but to be honest there is strong shear and dry air everywhere. And, yet she managed to become a 65 MPH Tropical Storm. Really "tiny" storms like this need to be analyzed more and yet we would prefer to watch big picture perfect intense cyclones like Maria in the Pacific looking as intense as Maria did last year in the Atlantic. Speaking of Maria another one intensified today in the Pacific headed towards China; possibly Shanghai. 

jsl-animated.gif (720×480)

Yeah that happened today.


Maria is headed towards China.
Hoping that changes over the next few days.
For now Beryl is headed towards the Islands.
They will most likely get some rain out of it.
Could the Atlantic Basin see a hurricane of this size?
Yes, possibly (even this year) but not now.
Late in the summer as we move towards Fall.
The East Coast and other areas need to be on guard.

And in the Carolinas........
we are waiting for this cold front to drop down.
I'm waiting. 


Point of historical reference. The last intense storm to hit Shanghai (which happens rarely) was in 2012. Again there are similarities this year to that year and my fears for hurricane problems on the East Coast later in the hurricane season have not mitigated in any way. So stay informed. Stay aware and stay hurricane strong in all ways.

Please keep reading if you have not done so today you can see the evolution of how Invest 95L became Tropical Depression #2 and then became the 2nd Tropical Storm of the 2018 Hurricane Season.  June and July usually are filled with "junk storms" or mediocre mess that form close in along the coast or are large messy subtropical systems in the Atlantic. This is officially the season but.... it's like watching a Pre Season football game. It's fun, it's interesting, it's something to watch at least but everyone knows what matters happens later in the season. The same with the Hurricane Season.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter



5 PM
Advisory out of NHC


50 Mph.


Now forecast to attain HURRICANE Status

First the cone.



Discussion points out what I said before.
Beryl is a bit of a QUANDARY 
Good word.
I chose it for a reason.
From my blog yesterday.


Beryl still remains a quandary.
Note discussion from NHC below.


As I have said over and over.
Small cyclones are hard to forecast.
Hard to read and evaluate.
Prone to flaring up fast.
Fading away fast.
Hard to forecast.


New discussion uses the H word.
Hurricane.

Key points below:


Note I often show the "wind probs"
Previously there were none expected.
Now they are there albeit low.


Intensity models show this possibility.
Not all models kill it off before the islands.


Strength shown below


Again models offer suggestions.
Possibilities for what will be.
We forecast with them in mind.
But models are historically bad with small cyclones.
Beryl is small currently.

Keep watching.


96L up left.
Beryl lower right.


More updates later tonight

Keep reading the thoughts expressed ...
...are still valid and explain the Beryl
And what could be a TD off the East Coast next.
Hard to see but it's definitely there.


****





Fast moving times we live in.
As I said it would earlier....
... Tropical Storm Beryl forms in the Atlantic.
Honesty it was a TS earlier today.
But let's get back to the official facts.


#Selfie above.
Map grid below.


Good thoughts below.
True that too.


Understand that very small tropical cyclones can spin up rapidly, they can intensify rapidly and they can also fall apart just as rapidly. We are dealing with Tropical Storm Beryl one day at a time. It doesn't need to hit Portland Maine as a rare Category 2 after plowing through SAL, shear and a strong High Pressure Ridge. It makes history by being Tropical Storm Beryl on July 5th after forming despite a strong Saharan Dust outbreak in ocean waters marginally warm enough to support development. Where it goes from here is the rest of the story. It can possibly, briefly intensify fast and become stronger than forecast currently. I'll update later today.

Oh and Invest 96L was tagged also.
Off the East Coast.
You can see OBX in the far right.
Getting busy........


It's a small comment but it needs to be said.
The "area of formation" for 96L ....
...keeps creeping West.
It's now just West of 75W.
It should be watched just in case...
...things don't play out as forecast.
And it is being watched as it is not an Invest.


I'll update later.
Signing off at 3 PM.
Most likely I'll do a full update later tonight.
After the 5 PM advisory package ho TS Beryl.

Oh and know there is another strong wave behind Beryl.
I told you... 
SAL is ferocious this year.
But so are the tropical waves coming off of Africa.



What Beryl must be singing now...


* * *








Tropical Depression #2



Salient part of the Discussion.


Note the use of the term "small"
Size matters in this case.
Small systems are better able to form in SAL.
They kill off what will be TS Beryl before the Islands.



Decent signature.


Old NHC Home Page.
Compare and Contrast over time.
Leaving it here.


As soon as I saw this map I knew.


When the Navy map gets a grid.
An upgrade is forthcoming.
By the time you read this ....
...it will be TD 2

Our small stubborn tropical wave now known as Tropical Depression #2  that is consistently kicking up convection with what seems overall good structure albeit a small structure has high odds of becoming a named storm at any time; that name would be Tropical Storm Beryl if it is further upgraded. Understand this is a small TD and small systems can flare up fast and fade away just as fast. Small systems are also hard for the models to grab onto and therefore notoriously bad when it comes to busted forecasts based on models. The models did sniff this system out so that's impressive as it came together in a part of the Atlantic Basin that seems to have had a huge "NO FISHING" sign stuck up as being "CLOSED FOR BUSINESS" and just it's very existence as a Tropical Depression, a contender for the name Beryl shows how seriously we need to always take the Hurricane Season. Luckily it's far out at sea and forecast to fall apart as it moves further West. Some models show it intensifying at some point so until it forms I'll hold off on making any real predictions. Suffice it say moisture from this wave may make it's way up towards Florida later down the road. In odd picture below. The blue is the wave in a sea of Saharan Dust. I suppose where there's a will there really is a way.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Again our MDR TD2 is small.
Embedded in a region of moisture.
South of the region of SAL
Note the sudden flare up over Pittsburgh 

Worth noting the area off the East Coast is still there and I believe what ever could form is on a delayed time schedule as we wait for other weather events to happen. I will discuss that later on when something really starts to come together. But it's worth remembering while wondering on when and if and when Tropical Depression 2 becomes Tropical Storm Beryl.



Black and white visible below.
Nice structure.


Before the sun actually rose.
I love these shots.
You can see the actual system better.


Models


And there was the map grid up at the NRL site.
Usually a prelude to upgrade.
Note the center bright white ball of convection.
Note the CENTER
Closed Center.
Tropical Depression #2


Thoughts to think on....


It is not rare for a random tropical wave bust through the Saharan Dust and become a Tropical Depression or a named Tropical Storm. This happens often and usually it ends about the same. And, when they form in SAL they often have a very similar look. Check out the satellite image and track below. Above Chantal is on the left and TD2 on the right. Very similar. 


To me TD2  looks a bit like Woody the Woodpecker.

Note how similar TD 2 forecast to be Beryl is below.
This is yesterday not today.
Note SAL in both storms.
Yet they both formed.



I'll update later as events unfold.


Some of those models take off in intensity.
So it has some potential.


No one is expecting this Tropical Depression to turn into something that goes the distance many rounds in the ring and make it to Texas as a Category 3 or to slam into the Outer Banks as a Cat 2. The story is that we are tracking it despite negative conditions. The take away lesson is in any given week any tropical wave could make a break for it and stay alive in hostile conditions. Better far out at sea than close in under our nose being ignored. Weather happens fast be it a flash flood or the rapid intensification of what hitherto seemed a nothing westbound wave. Not expecting anything like that to happen, but again weather happens and climate is a look back at the history of weather over time. 





Lastly Pittsburgh has flooding again. Pittsburgh is a river city and any football fan knows that as everyone knows 3 River Stadium; it's called that because Pittsburgh is a river city that was built in a region with hilly elevation and a history of floods. This year in particular it has been under siege from Mother Nature. Again I'm wondering on the Mid Atlantic and the inland areas associated with it as we move towards the heart of Hurricane Season. History has a way of repeating as we can see from Chantal and Invest 95L aka TD2. The story is always a bit different, but the basic story line is similar. 


Models are wonderful but it's good to know what's actually there and to know hurricane history. 

Stay tuned.....

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
https://www.facebook.com/bobbistorm.5

Ps... Again history repeats. A look back at Chantal.

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1 Comments:

At 3:29 PM, Blogger jr33305 said...

Is there any possibility that even if Beryl degenerates east of 60W she may find a 2nd life and regenerate near the Bahamas or Cuba? I live in east fort Lauderdale and recall such a storm's less famous early days being called a 'bahama bomber when it makes a name for itself later in life

 

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