New Yellow Area Between New Orleans and Mobile Bay Expected to Slide West Along the GOM Coastal Region. Something from Nothing. Boom Boom Boom. Stay Tuned.

Note the time stamp.

3 hours ago we were talking about this.

Now there is a "yellow x"

Well that was fast. We went from nothing to "something" with a vague 10% yellow area along the Central Gulf of Mexico Coastline so close that it could smell the coffee brewing at the French Market in New Orleans. Earlier today I spoke about the need to watch the GOM even though there was nothing marked there as the actual satellite imagery and radar imagery showed much convection and some signs of spin as evidenced by radar and various satellite sites. Poof there's a yellow X and so there should be as this area paralleling the coast can bring much rain and some flooding in the typical bayou like low lying areas.  Compare and contrast how fast they can react to fast changing weather.

Earlier this morning. Nothing.

Now. Look there's a purple dot. 

This is a perfect example of how things are covered here in this blog that don't yet show up on official source maps shown on the home page of the NHC nhc.noaa.gov a good example of nothing is forming unless of course something pops up that compels the NHC to put up a yellow area with low level percentages. Sometimes things pop up and look stronger than any model has shown and things change. I cover all areas in the tropics that need to be watched, many of which will not develop but could develop. Sometimes art imitates life and other times life imitates art. The satellite image below combined with information from radar and local NWS offices compels things to change fast. Things changing fast is what tropical weather is all about. 

No that's not a hurricane with an eye.

It's a yellow area with 10% chances to form.

Basically the low that has been there.....

... finally made it out over warm water.

Note the Low on the weather maps below.

Remember when we kept saying High Pressure to the North..

...often shows lowering pressures to the South.
Happens over time.

I mentioned it several times recently.

Now what?

Let's go straight to the official source.

Satellite loop shows more of the story.

As expected the Low made it out over warm water.

The water is between 84 and 85 degrees.

Obviously warm enough for development.

A small spin has begun visible above.

Very close in.

Again this time of year worry less on Africa...

...worry more what's in your backyard.

It's forecast to slide West along the coast.

Keep watching.

Currently this area is expected to move along the coastline bringing rain where ever it goes. Currently we are not worried on high winds but that could change. Being honest the NHC didn't highlight it this morning at 8 AM but at 2 PM every weather source in the area and from Miami to Maine now has it up on their maps, promos and it's the new star of the Twitter. Something to talk about besides the huge heat ridge and hot weather. 

Please read this morning's post where I spoke about this area as well as others that are being monitored. And, read up on some hurricane history. I explain why Saharan Dust AKA SAL is often prominent this time of year in the East Atlantic and when it's very strong such as it has been recently it keeps the water temperatures down. Later in the summer the SAL wanes, the water temperatures bounce back and we get some form of tropical development usually; even in years when SAL had been a huge problem. There are several reports peer reviewed that explain, compare and contrast why one year has more intense hurricanes and other years have less. It's also worth reminding people again and again that Hurricane Katrina, Sandy and the Great Labor Day Hurricane all formed close in not "out by Africa" in the East Atlantic. Again for now focus less on the water temperatures by Africa and worry more on what's in your own backyard. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/07/july-1st-sal-is-in-charge-of-east.html

Besos BobbiStorm

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