GOM Rainmaker Texas Bound on Father's Day. Trying to Pull Itself Together... And a Reminder to Prepare for Hurricane Season 2018. Do You Know How to Make a Perfect Poached Egg? X 91L Reminds me of a Messy Poached Egg.

20/20 chances over the next 2 to 5 days.

It's running out of days...

Mike puts it well.

Blob Alert.

Blob alert with wicked weather.

But no closed circulation.

No circulation = no name.

You can see it below here...

At 11 AM Sunday AM.

One part left for the coast...

Another part remained behind.

 Fantastic discussion by Cranky.

It's a gale.

Or rather it's producing gales.

But no closed circulation.

This hot potato been passed to the NWS.

Worth saying this is TX and LA

Not just a Texas mess.

https://www.weather.gov/lch/

Good graphics from "Cranky"

Note his placement of the ULL

And special extra credit...

Africa still producing tropical waves.

Come August the water will be warm enough.

Maybe late July....

Feels like July already!!

A brief update today on Father's Day. The remnants of 91L are still partially attached to the tip of the Yucatan and another part of it set sail for the coast. It reminds me of a Jimmy Buffett song A semi permanent feature of a temporary feeling or in this case a batch of strong convection that is rooted to the tip of the Yucatan and won't go away.. Every morning I wake up, look at the satellite loop and there is a part of what was 91L still attached to the Yucatan. That can be funny or a problem down the road. Part of it going towards the coast of Texas and another part of it remains. In the tropics we don't like to see semi permanent features that set up and wait until conditions get better way down the road. Keep watching. Sometimes they can evolve when conditions become suddenly favorable, much like an old dead and decayed front dangling across Florida that doesn't go completely away while it waits to find a chance to spin up into something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H2O4AX3EpI

Good song.
Good blog.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e061718.htm

Last night.
This morning.
Still there, still messy.

Somewhere under that mass of convection.

A low pressure center could be forming.

There is much discussion on this ....

... much convection has come and gone.

Yet the elusive hunt for a center goes on.

It is possible it will finally gel in some way.
Looked better last night...
Give it a few hours.
It flares up.
It falls apart.
It never goes away........

Note Cranky's Tweet's last night.

We went from this...

...earlier on Saturday

To this at Midnight on Sunday.

It flares up.

It falls apart.

In reality two areas are fighting for control.

Centers trying to form at different spots.

In different layers of the atmosphere.

With a center ...

...or without a center.

There will be rain.

And, probably wind and rain.

But to be a designated Tropical System.

Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm...

It needs to have a closed center.

Them's just the rules.

I didn't make them up.

Rules are important.

We will see what happens.

I feel like every meteorologist or weather person wants to be the one to scream "I see it!! It's forming! A new center is forming!!" and I feel like there is at least one meteorologist locked in the closet at the NHC yelling through the locked door "just make it 91L again, just tag it 91L again" and well only time will tell who wins that battle but in truth this really does come down to the area of convection once known as Invest 91L that was downgraded as it was not able to find it's true center. To be a Tropical Depression or TS Beryl it has to have a closed center otherwise it's just  strong, stormy weather.

Let me explain something that needs to be kept in mind over and over as the Hurricane Season progresses. Models are simply computer programs that put out a product that is only as good as the information put in and they are unable to create a Tropical Storm they can only show where one could develop and how strong it might be and where it might make landfall and they get another chance to do it every six to twelve hours. Life doesn't give us "do overs" as in the real world we mess up or we do a great job and if we mess up we try to do better the next time. The girl gets away and you don't not get a chance to see her again. Someone else lands the big job you wanted and you have to make do with what you got going or find another opportunity. Only on a Soap Opera One Life to Live could a pregnant woman go over the Brazilian Water Fall and show back up in Landview with the baby alive, well and try to get the baby's father back to become a Super Couple again! This is not Hollywood, it's tropical meteorology and until a closed, verified center develops and maintains itself and the models are run from that starting point do the models get to be as good as we hoped they would be when they were developed. Somewhere along the line we have raised models up to some Super Star status as if they were Divas on a Soap Opera or Super Heroes ready to leap tall buildings in a single bound or however that goes. Even the EURO on it's best day is not Superman.

Maybe you watched One Life to Live. I know a lot of meteorologists who did so... Check out the early names for Hurricanes and the list is littered with heroes and heroines beyond any coincidence. If you did here's the epic scene where an alive Tina (who they thought had died pregnant going over the falls in South America) showing up at her husband's second wedding ceremony. Not even a Rabbi, a Minister and the Mormon Tabernacle Choir could keep Tina from running in and handing the new groom his baby that survived going over the waterfall while in her womb. 

Cliff Notes:

Wow. 

If 91L was like Tina...

..she would turn into Wilma.

And intensify like crazy by the Yucatan.

But it's June of 2018.

Wilma doing her rapid intensification.

This is not Wilma... 

It's having some problems.

And that is what happens in June.

It's why the rhyme goes:

"June too soon"

Some years, rare years, June starts off with a bang in the tropics but usually a weak barely there area of convection battles shear and an Upper Level Low as well as outflow from EPAC systems in June and yet somehow, sometimes they battle their way towards land sometimes becoming a named storm just before landfall. Either way.... rain will be the name of the game. And, some in Texas could use the rain as long as it's not too much rain.

Ever play Chess? I'm not a huge Chess fan though I appreciate the brain power it takes to sit for hours trying to stay three steps ahead of your opponent. Personally I like Backgammon. But I used a Chess analogy on Friday to explain why 91L didn't form earlier in the week when the models were throwing their support behind formation of Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane. If you just looked at that the environment 91L was in you would see it was sheer folly to think it could pull itself together and wrap especially if you looked at the satellite imagery more than the models. 

Basically Aletta and Bud were the King and Queen pieces on the Chess board. When you are watching the Yucatan in June you have to take into account that the King and Queen are in the EPAC and in this case the Bishop Carlotta showed up to join them. It was not a favorable area for anything of substance to form from day one. But the models.... all hot and excited in June like Pre Teens out on their First Date were showing huge possibilities that did not make any sense when you saw an area with multiple centers with too much shear, dry air and interference from an active Epac. At some point you have to be able to know when the models are not reliable and when they are spot on. They were not spot on.  Models are not Superheroes and they are in fact only computer programs being run and being rerun over and over. Until there is a closed, verified circulation with good data from recon or ground observation the models are only taking their best guess estimate of what might happen and nothing more. They have become raised to personality status "EURO KING" "GFS BAD BAD GIRL" but they are just computer programs. Garbage in... Garbage Out. Plain and simple. And, when you get a lot of garbage it's best to take out the garbage and start over on the next run. 

Extremely well said.

Read that over and over please.

Again it's a crowded area.

Hard to develop.

It needs a closed center.

NHC giving it low odds.

It's got odds.

It's in the game.

But low odds.

One last thing I want to say about the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season here is that I don't want to hear how cool the water is by Africa and how El Nino most likely will develop, winter may start early and we won't have as many hurricanes in 2018 as we did in 2017 it will just be your average normal year. Be scared, be very scared of "normal, average hurricane years" and prepare rather than be scared. Nothing may develop that threatens your town, your home and your loved ones. But I am more worried that the water close in to the Continental United States in Hurricane Country is warm, red hot than I am about how cool the Atlantic out near Africa is... This is not a numbers game, it is about how one storm may find it's way to your home town. And, it's about preparing properly in case that happens. Should a center form suddenly . . . the water will be warm enough to get something going but again it needs a center before it can be more than heavy rain and strong winds affecting Texas.

A site that Mike highlights on www.spaghettimodels.com is from a local Florida News Station and they have really great maps. One shows how warm the water is as in available energy to produce a Hurricane or Tropical Storm and this map changes constantly in real time based upon current conditions. Currently the water is hot in parts of the Gulf of Mexico and off the Florida coast and up along the Carolina Coast as you can see up above. Worry on that more and less on how cool the water is in June near Africa as in August it will be warm enough and ready for a few great tropical waves to develop. IF they make it to our part of the world our water is very warm and will be very welcoming so even if they do not develop far out they can become Home Grown Problems.

My last thought today on this area in the GOM.

If you ever saw me try to make poached eggs...

...you'd understand.

Or maybe you have tried.

It's not so easy to get them to be perfect.

I've never learned how to make great poached eggs like Aunt Ada did, but my younger brother Ronnie kind of mastered it somehow. Maybe he got that gene... making the poached eggs properly gene if there is one. Mine really do come out all messy with strands going in every direction, a few trying desperately to warp around what appears like a yellow yolk in the bottom of a pan with threads of white everywhere not really coming together. After enough time elapses it begins to resemble a poached egg (if you scoop away all the strands floating everywhere) and with a slotted spoon place it onto the plate and pretend it's a "poached egg" but it ends up looking more like a badly formed soft boiled egg outside the shell. Why am I talking about poached eggs? Because when I looked at the satellite imagery tonight on a long loop that is what I saw was how my poached eggs look when they aren't really coming together. Not my Aunt Ada's perfect poached eggs that were like Cat 3 poached eggs but my failed attempts at me trying to make a normal poached egg.

I have bought poaching pots.

Tried them in the microwave.

Kind of comes together.......

But it's not picture perfect.

You try them...

....go for it.

Next time I want a poached egg...

I'll order it in a restaurant!
Best poached eggs ever are in Savannah
http://www.goosefeatherscafe.com/menu/

We are doing pizza and ice cream today.
Got my husband who is a father, stepfather and Grandpa breakfast.
Bagel place he likes that's "New York" style.
Tonight we be doing Pulled Brisket.
I'll leave the poached eggs to the experts.
Yup... X 91L a big messy poached egg gone wrong.
But the rain, the wind still remains.

Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps.... Here's to my youngest brother Ronnie. Happy Father's Day! He's here with my nephew Chaim and my youngest son who has been living with him since I moved to Raleigh. In truth I am in Miami constantly but over time he has been there for my son (and other members of the clan) when needed and as my brother says he is more a partner in crime to my son than an Uncle. But he is "Uncle Ronnie" and always there to go root the Marlins on when in town or go for a long ride or sneak away somewhere like the Keys or Naples on a Sunday Afternoon. My Uncle was a Gator and my father was a UM Hurricane so I root for both ;) and the Marlins of course!

Me and Ronnie.

As for the remnants of 91L

(you do see it coming together right....)