Updated 10 PM! Models Invest 91L Forms. Tropics Still 20% - Thoughts on Tropical Development, Advertising and How Wendy's Became Prom Queen
Just adding in here some models.
Each new model run shows a new layer.
In reality this is most likely a BOC player.
Grid above on the home page from Spaghetti Models.
Up close view of the new Yellow Circle.
Newest graphics from NHC show the small yellow circle in the BOC and that's perfectly in line with CLIMO and June systems. Again a disorganized system means that IF a center develops the center will be tracked but the weather may be far from the center. So even if this system gets a name and flirts with Tex Mex or some city along the Texas coast the rain may be a wide shield of tropical moisture. And, it's possible some odd things will happen between here and there. Stay tuned.
Invest 91L has formed.
NHC now runs models officially.
1st model run below.
Eventually it goes left.
Even the track towards Florida turns back.
Well as far as the first run goes...
Basically nothing has changed today.
10% in the 2 day.
20% in the 5 day.
Really nothing new to say.
Did want to show the wide view.
Convection has been consistent with 91L
Also note Westbound tropical wave.
The tropical wave is low....
...but despite SAL and cool water.
The wave made it across the Atlantic.
Why worry on 91L ?
Even if it struggles to be a Tropical Storm?
Tropical Storms have a history of sometimes stalling.
Tropical Storm Allison is one such storms.
This is NOT Allison.
But it's worth remembering.
Good blog above.
Formed close in...
...sat and dumped rain.
Flooding happened.
Then moisture continued to cause mischief.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison
Also you will hear people online talking.
They talk of MJO and Kelvin Waves.
Where such waves go tropical trouble follows.
One in the Epac is responsible for Aletta and Bud
Or more so for their intensity.
As the wave moves East...
tropical development is favored.
Or let's say a factor in enhanced tropical development.
Now let's look at Invest 91L
2 Satellites are needed to show this area.
There is a blob of convection in the Caribbean.
A flow of moisture moving N towards Cuba and Florida.
Really just enhancing the set up for rain this time of year.
GOM satellite shows shear to the West in the BOC.
An ULL and a cold front on the move are players.
Note further up in the GOM is the ULL
And purple splotches along the coastline.
Close to land.
BOC and Carib.
It's common for multiple centers to set up shop a bit.
Think of them like "pop up shops"
When the set up is murky like this...
Shear and marginal water temperatures.
Not ready for brick and mortar store.
Just a cute "Pop Up Shop"
If you wait it's too late.
The POPUP shop is gone.
An example being a while back I went with my daughter to Aventura Mall and my daughter showed me the new wing of the mall with the new TOPSHOP in it and she was looking at the make up. I bought her some Kylie Jenner Lipsticks from the store. When I went back to the store the Make up display was gone because... it was a POP UP store. You can see in the middle on display in the picture below. Later another POP UP store appeared elsewhere in the store for another product. It's a fast paced world these days you got to be ready for something to pop up anywhere be it eyeliners or tropical development. Often areas such as this develop multiple centers that pop up and disappear just as fast.
Dabuh discusses that online today.
And that is the problem with Invest 91L . . . a center can POP UP anywhere in that yellow grid and it's possible that multiple areas of interest could evolve out of this broad, large, messy area of consistent convection. Something could develop far from what seems to be the burst of convection the NHC is hinting at that would develop. It could be nothing happens until the convection pushed West by the strong High to the East oozes into the BOC and then as it scurries towards the coast the NHC pin points a center, issues a TD or TS watch in an abundance of caution and then we get a designated system. Eventually one center wins out. Don't believe any one model run until a true center has formed. The truth is the real issue here is the WEATHER and steering currents that are not strong and could allow rains to sit over Texas maintaining long term rainfall and some localized flooding. We have seen this set up before. It's common for this time of year. It's a very common but complicated set up. Note well drawn illustrations by Cranky shown below.
Also note moisture from BUD will spread into US.
Enhancing weather in the SW.
Can that have a hand here as well?
Something to think on.
Check back later to see if the odds have changed.
One thing I do want to say is it's depressing watching TWC these days as their advertisers are obviously targeting the aging Baby Boom population that still pays for Cable TV. I get that you really need.... I suppose to preach to the choir but I'm tired of hearing how no one can sleep and they need a way better pillow or medication to help them get a good night's sleep. They are sort of shooting themselves in the foot by looking at the short term game here. IF people can really sleep with that pillow and the meds then their audience will be snoring during their nonstop barrage of how to survive in the jungle and what it's like to chase a killer tornado. Seems like they should pay younger advertisers to be involved in their broadcast of weather to a new generation who might watch them on HULU and ROKU. They need to find out who is in charge or Wendy's and Burger King (now going with the handle Pancake King) who stole the thunder from IHOP/IHOB yesterday with their tongue in cheek flirtation that stole the show on Twitter. I said stole twice and that was on purpose. If you are going to sell your message than get it right and don't make a new logo that looks like a box of tampons. Perhaps IHOP needs to get way better coffee or smell the roses cause it seems they will not have a date to the prom this year. Really no women were involved in this decision as any woman would know their new logo looks like a box of tampons...
Best read all day:
And Wendy's Sassy Tweets were the best.
Pancake King not bad... funny.
So lastly taking this back to tropical weather as how you tell the story is important. Too much hype online, too much jumping the gate at times with advertised graphics and too much concern on if cool water near Africa will lessen the total number of ACE this year when in fact it's storms that spin up or develop close in that are bigger concerns than FISH storms that form fast by Africa and curve out to sea. As for the Caribbean and the BOC it's time for a sacrificial weak TD to be sacrificed to the old Mayan powers that be by tossing a storm up towards the Tex Mex area hopefully away from Houston but I can't make any promises. The only thing I can promise you is adding @burgerking and @wendy's to your Twitter feed will brighten your day. Cranky's great discussion always makes my morning and Mike at www.spaghettimodels.com keeps me surfing along fast while out shopping at the old Brick and Mortar store (hey I am a Baby Boomer even if Facebook says I grew up in the 80s) :)
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbitsorm on Twitter
Labels: burgerking, Caribbean, GOM, insomnia, pillows, prom, tropics, TWC, weather, wendys
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:09 AM
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