Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Tropics Sunday. GFS HOT EURO NOT... or Simply NOT YET. Keep Watching. Are You Here For Computer Modeling or For Meteorology and Hurricanes? Wondering Which Moves You?

First the EPAC

Atlantic Side below.
Mike says it well.

What's there now?
Lot's of moisture.
Same as Pre Alberto Days.

Wind Shear is there as well.

Water temperatures not sooooo hot.

Looks like Pre Alberto days doesn't it?
Purple circle in SW Carib.
Hot spot always for June storms to form.
Well they form further North.
Incubated down there early on.

A High kind of protecting Florida for now.

I'm going to go with what Mike said and remind you all that the GFS is hot and the EURO is not. The EURO shows increased moisture surging into the area and again this is how the whole Alberto story began. Also I will remind you to count about 10 days from the EPAC being hot until the Atlantic side heats up with tropical action. This time of year we take turns development wise and this is a timing thing as development in the EPAC adds to shear in the Caribbean and shear is the enemy of tropical formation. 

Writing a longer post on Hurricane History of the Florida Keys as in way before Hurricane Irma that will be up later today sometime as a separate stand alone blog post that can be referenced for people to learn more about the Florida Keys and their hurricane history. Stay tuned....

Computer models are great, I love a few of them personally though I wouldn't bring them home to meet my parents.  I would stay up all night staring at their every whisper of tropical trouble as if I was lost in an online love affair. In truth models are inconstant lovers and erratic often. Consistency seems to be everything unless it's the GFS that is being consistent and as it doesn't have the sexy edge of the EURO everyone loves to hate it. But... everyone checks on it also so they know what to complain about online. Years ago I watched this with the very old MRF model and believe it or not back in the early days of being online people sat around all morning bitching about feed back issues with the MRF and how you couldn't trust it in early June and July. Then people began to complain about the "feedback issues" of the Canadian Model and well yeah seems the European Model likes the tropics as much as German Tourists love South Beach.

Nuff said.

Nothing much happening.

But if you don't watch and enjoy the process you are not here for the meteorology you are just a computer wizard using meteorology as your drug of choice. Some people like Gin and others like Rum and others enjoy Coca Cola while others swear by Pepsi Cola. Computer people are often obsessive compulsive by nature and very opinionated. You can argue that, fine go for it, but they are often argumentative and perfectionists lost in their own obsession. Meteorology and Computer Programming go together like Rum and Coke or Nespresso and sugar. But if you get lost in the computer programming part and or the big shoot out discussion arguing models vs watching the actual process of how storms form and how they have formed in the past you don't really get it. Climo is often King, El Nino comes on like Santa Claus who drank too much Egg Nog in those days after Halloween and before Thanksgiving when you start making your list of what to shop for first. El Nino = Christmas Child. The waters off of Africa are cool in June and moisture builds over South America and meets up with a westbound tropical wave and when wind shear takes a break and takes a nap the tropics come alive suddenly. Aletta goes from a weak storm to Cat 4 and surprises all the computer programmers who were already running models on what could become Bud and they missed the rapid intensification of Aletta. 

To be a GREAT meteorologist you need to really know HURRICANE HISTORY, Climo, oceanography, meteorology, geography and history just as much as you need to know how to create a new, better computer model that loads faster and shows the most contrast. It's about the Hurricane, the storm, the formation of the storm that often takes place in real time. And, when you live by the models you end up with Tropical Storm Julia forming OVER land in Florida because the models didn't like what became Tropical Storm Julia. Remember that and try and remember why you are here and that's the weather and love of weather plain and simple. Or are you in it for modeling and the computers?

The video is black and white but the story is the same even though we now live in a techno color world. They said it was going to hit Cuba or go through the Florida Straits but as hurricanes so often do when the High nudges away it turned a bit more and went through the Florida Keys. We can fly a drone now and get better images, but the images it sends back are the same no matter how good our satellite imagery is or how accurate our models are the end game is still the same; homes destroyed, boats tossed up into backyards or on the Overseas Highway and a need to get the warning out better the next time.

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Besos BobbiStorm

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At 11:28 PM, Anonymous Tom said...

I like the article. I like how you wrote about the pre-face of tropical systems and weather in general, and how weather is more than just models and computers. A prime example is to just look at the current satellite imagery, it definitely looks like there is some circulation around that broad low. It seems like it is better than something. What's your opinion on the matter? I think it will form into something with a name, just my guess.

Also, watch Bud, that hurricane could become trouble for the coast of Mexico, as it is in a precarious position with Aletta slowing up just enough to steer it slightly. I will give it 2 days before I believe in any model.
Thanks for the read, Tom


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