Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, May 27, 2018

UPDATED!! Noon Alberto .. Coming Together? Problem with Subtropical Storms. They NEED Their OWN CONE. Tornado Warnings over Miami. Multiple Centers.

Note the immense rainfall on the East side.
Note Alberto trying to consolidate.
Cone below.

72 Hour Rainfall Product 

Okay let me say this about that. IF the NHC is going to name and put out advisories for Subtropical Storms than they need to make a DIFFERENT Cone for this sort of storm. They need a Cone that is specific for SUBTROPICAL STORMS. I'm in agreement that they are worth upgrading to even when they are messy, huge swaths of one sided rain shields delivering Tornado Warnings far from the quiet beaches directly in the path of the center. Subtropical Storms do not have the same "CDO" signature so why should they have the same CONE vs their own different cone that shows where the "center" will go and where the actual severe weather will go? It's something that is needed that would better explain these storms and better warn people anywhere near the weather, wind or tides from a Subtropical Storm.  Better the NHC do it than to hand it off to the NWS and hope people check their local NWS site for local information. If the NHC is going to name it... the NHC should make a cone specific to it's Subtropical status.

Note the NHC Discussion below. They say it's getting more organized, stronger and soon could even be a Tropical Storm. 

Keep reading.

NHC has it as a Tropical Storm  in 12 HRS.
This is a done deal basically.
Come hell or very high water.
Their forecast is going to verify.

In truth it's common Subtropical Storms often ramp up and get a tighter circulation in the NE Gulf of Mexico on approach to landfall and become a Tropical Storm... as forecast in their advisory packages.
Nuff said..

What is upsetting is that someone has already died this Memorial Day Weekend in the Florida Panhandle. A 31 year old man died yesterday in Panama City Beach swimming in the surf and while the skies are blue the surf is stronger than usual. We owe it to the public to find a better way of communicating the real dangers of a Subtropical Storm including Rip Tides, Tornadoes far from the Cone as well as the possibility of it being upgraded at any time to a true Tropical Storm. I'll update later when Alberto becomes Tropical which seems a done deal.

 * * *

Center of Alberto to the left.                             
                Severe Weather to the right.

Tampa Radar shows Alberto

Miami Radar Shows Alberto's Weather.

Alberto's "Other" Side so to speak
Great picture from Twitter below.
Key West....

There was a Tornado Warning for Miami this AM

Close up Twister Warning...

Wide view.
Note darkest convection to the East
As forecast... Bahamas even!

Officially Alberto stronger... a bit.

Wrapping up as forecast.

Nothing much to add currently as this is what we expected. The center is far to the left and even the NHC admits there are multiple centers and the exact movement is unsure as the dynamics are very fluid within the storm and changes in the location of the center are possible. Official wording from the discussion is shown below. 

 Bottom Line Cone

I cannot say this enough do not focus on where the "center" goes as the stronger weather is far removed currently from the center and throughout the day pop up Tornado Warnings will happen over all of Florida. I'm going out to breakfast. I'll be back later with updates. Please the previous post on similar analog tropical storms. If I was a betting girl I'd bet on the NHC upgrading Alberto before landfall to Tropical Storm status. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


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