90L Up to RED 80% - The Name Alberto Is Waiting For It... It has to pull together, get away from land ..and shear needs to let up a bit. Keep Watching. Models Begin to Agree

Note the words "drifts North" in discussion

There must be some song that's ten by ten, I know there's one that's two by two but as I said previously as long as the models are bullish on development the NHC will keep edging their percentage up by 10% so you can do the math we will have a Tropical Depression at some point sooner rather than later. The problem with Invest 90L is that it's appearance going into the Memorial Day Weekend threatening a large part of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and it's adjacent beaches and attractions hypes the concern to carefully protect the lives of those people who live there and who travel there on vacation. Memorial Day Weekend is not just another day at the beach and people need to plan and they also need to take it seriously. They also have to use a measure of caution yet at the same time this is not a Hurricane nor is it even forecast to become a strong Tropical Storm. Note there are some models that show this could be stronger vs a minimal TS Alberto. Add to the confusion the tag Subtropical Alberto will most likely be used at least in the beginning and people don't really understand what the difference is and that's why I wrote about it yesterday. It means that the "area of strong rain" with "associated flooding" could be far, far away from the actual center unless it makes that transition to a Tropical Storm and wraps up tightly.

I'm going to begin this morning's discussion by asking you to read last night's post as much of what I wrote is still relevant and I will write a longer post this afternoon with more details.  So moving forward it's worth noting that the Euro and GFS are slowly coming into agreement on landfall and strength. The NAM, which is a different sort of model, lags behind and keeps it further South in the GOM whereas the EURO and GFS are targeting an area near Mobile Bay; it would be splitting hairs to say which city gets the "center" as everyone nearby will get the weather and even areas very far away in Florida could get strong squalls passing through causing localized problems.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/05/nhc-gives-invest-90l-60-chances-of.html

Currently not much of a Selfie for 90L

Not much of a wind signature yet

Euro

GFS

NAM

The problem the NHC has is to forecast and prepare people properly across a wide area of the Gulf of Mexico and as you know when something gets into the Gulf of Mexico there is an implied landfall as it's a bull in the china shop. Rain totals are high along the beaches of the Central and Eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Note it won't rain ALL day but it's a fluid situation which can change dramatically at any time during the next several days. If you are going to Tampa...there's a lot to do indoors in Tampa. If you are going hiking somewhere be very careful and make sure you have a good signal on your cellphone so you can get timely updates. If you are going boating... I wouldn't go too far out into the Gulf and perhaps put that trip off for another time. If you are going to the beach pray for rain, plan events indoors if it rains often and use spray tan ... as you may not get a great tan at the beach this Memorial Day Weekend. If you are the type that is afraid of bad weather, even if it's just strong thunderstorms, you might want to plan a Staycation rather than driving five or six hours there and back and being rained out and having the water too rough to let the kids go swim in. Then again most hotels have great pools and in Florida, unless there is lightning, we swim in the rain. 

So I'll update this blog or write a new post later today after some models come in and I totally wake up and shake off the allergy meds as I didn't get a lot of sleep last night. And, to be honest not much as changed other than the possibility of a stall somewhere near land as indicated yesterday by a few of the models. 

There is a strong High to the East of the forecast path of what will be Alberto and it's pushing West and as Alberto is a Low it will seek out the area of lowest pressure and try to avoid the High. There is a blocking high to the North so it won't barrel North at a high speed and there is no diving front to pick it up. There is a weak high to it's West so it won't be going WNW. It will drift Northish and look for a warm spot in the Gulf of Mexico to intensify. The NHC is not hyping it, but Alberto's appearance going into a beach themed weekend holiday amps up the need to be very careful with advance watches and warnings. At the same time Alberto has not formed yet and has been a slow poke so far so I don't see any thing on the weather map that tells me this will not change any time soon. 

Do not get lost in the title of Subtropical or Tropical other than this general rule.

Subtropical: Rain w strong weather can be far removed from the center of landfall.

Tropical: Stronger weather at the center closest to landfall.

Both can carry weather that is misplaced to the East and both can create squall lines far from the actual center. Bottom line... pay attention to the local NWS forecast for your specific area of concern and check back here often as well as at www.spaghettimodels.com and you may want to play a bit at www.windy.com

Again please read last night's update and yesterday's blog as the information there is still relevant today. Note the model no longer loops but it kinks so timing of arrival of Alberto is still a big question mark though the NHC will firm that up by Friday evening I'm sure. But much depends on Invest 90L and it's ability to fight off the current shear and move away from land to start doing it's forecast thing.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/05/nhc-gives-invest-90l-60-chances-of.html

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter