Watching Caribbean. Buying Cheesecake. Rainy Weekend. Long Term Models Show Tropical Problems for Memorial Day Weekend. Take Them With Mucho Grains of Salt Until Something Forms. But Something to Think On...
The loop above shows today and the near future.
It's a reliable forecast.
What is and what will be.
Everything else is conjecture.
Speaking of conjecture and his cousin innuendo there is much discussion about possible development in the tropics Memorial Day Weekend. We are getting closer to the point where we can say "expected" development as Memorial Day Weekend gets closer to the 7 day time frame for forecasting. The flow of moisture coming out of the Caribbean zooming up into the Eastern half of the continental United States will continue unabated for a few days.
Memorial Day Weekend is the official start of Summer for many, at least in the fashion world, where people change over their wardrobes and feel they are allowed to turn on the AC. I never get that AC thing as in my world black sandals work anytime and if it's hot I turn on the AC or as we used to say growing up in Miami the "life support system" cause you really can't live easily in Florida all year round without AC. But this Spring after an unusually long winter we skipped Spring and dove right into Summer. Meteorological Summer for those with no patience to wait for the Summer Solstice begins June 1st in tandem with the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And, right on time we have a system in the Caribbean that may develop just on time for networks to hype up the season and kick people in the ass to get out there and go shopping for much needed hurricane supplies. Mind you I'm talking about people not in Florida or the general Houston area who know the drill really well this particular year. If you live in the the rest of the Gulf of Mexico or the Mid Atlantic you may want to dust off those To Do Lists and Shopping Lists.
Use this list: http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics
In the South Florida area there was much publicized flooding from locally heavy rains as the Monsoon Season kicked into gear. Understand places like Davie and Parkland were built far out into what was for most of Planet Earth's time history the EVERGLADES aka Swamp Land. And the better communities are built up a bit and have drainage ditches and drains that make the situation better. Poorer areas where the trailer parks are situated often do not have such luxuries. Note even with the luxuries when it rains that hard (it's called MONSOON for a reason) it floods briefly. I am concerned if something does develop in the Caribbean and moves up over Florida over an area that has been dealing with localized flooding for days we could see a much larger flooding problem even with a weak tropical system. Further up the coast areas in the Appalachia or the soggy Southeast they could also have long term flooding concerns if the current models continue showing a tropical system coming up out of the Caribbean making landfall and moving inland. May storms out of the Caribbean are often weak, however they are filled with tons of tropical moisture. Cold fronts this time of year show up but sometimes they don't grab the storm and slide it out to sea so fast. It could be a tricky set up.
That's not a dress rehearsal though it is a pretty dress she's wearing. TWC is dusting off their Tropical Update early while discussing all that moisture down in the Caribbean. So where do we stand today regarding the tropics. The moist tropical flow is zooming North bringing rain. The Atlantic is still too cold. Nice waves coming off of Africa early and too low, tho some of them make it across and add moisture to areas of moisture already in the Caribbean.
You can watch the flow below.
I just don't want to talk models currently as the models are long range and they vary, however they are coming together showing something trying to develop as moisture wraps together and moves towards South Florida, up over Cuba somewhere near the Yucatan and where it goes no body knows for sure. We also don't know what it's strength will be if it develops it's Northbound with some variation to the left or right in it's track. But although it may be raining this weekend in South Florida I'd enjoy the rain, do your thing and have fun because next weekend could be a real rain out if you were planning a BBQ at the beach. As Mike says you can swim in the pool in the rain anytime, so backyard parties are good as long as you are cranking up the AC inside and have a covered patio to lay out the food and beer.
As I said yesterday when all the models are screaming "SHARK!" you can figure there is some sort of big fish in the water. Time will tell how big, how strong and if it gets the name Alberto or not.
Here are some relevant Tweets posted online as they leave you with something to think about. If you follow Dabuh over time on Twitter or at his website you learn the method in his musical madness. Works for me.
As for me I'll be offline this weekend for a long but fun Jewish Holiday known as Shavous or as my friends like to tease me "oh that's your holiday where you eat cheesecake!" and that's true too. Lots of new fruits, desserts and a heavy emphasis on dairy and cheese dishes mixed in with your regular chicken and meat dishes at different meals. We also will be surviving Ice Cream over Cherry Pie and my daughter is bringing chocolate and cinnamon cake that is like a long, danish cake basically. I keep it simple with Greek Salad, Blitzes, Turkey, Chicken and Rice, Lox and Bagels for various meals. I may be making Fake Bacon (beef, it's good) Gourmet Burgers and fancy potato salad for a meal. Time will tell much like the modeling for the big Memorial Day Tropical ??? as things evolve in real time. I go shopping, I buy the ingredients, some show up from far away and then we'll see what mood I'm in Sunday Morning to see what I actually make or bake!
So until I'm back on Monday please refer to Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com for all your tropical needs and be aware if you like NASCAR he's there too so he's really got you covered. Again I'll be back online blogging sometime late Monday well rested and ready to rock and roll with the punches for whatever may develop down in the tropics. http://www.spaghettimodels.com/raceday
Also much of what may or may not develop down in the Caribbean will depend on what happens with regard to the shear. If the shear lessens as it is forecast to do so then something begins to wrap up into a designated system more than just models fantasizing as they often do this time of year. There are great shear maps on Spaghetti Models so make sure you move around throughout the site to fully actualize all the information he put there for you to utilize!
The models are up at the top on the left.
Take them with a lot of salt.
Like margaritas ;)
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps. Should I make a Margarita Cheesecake? Hmnn. Again I'll be back at my particular harbor sometime late on Monday and until then keep listening to the music and watching the tropics. There's a Key Lime Cheesecake there. Works for me.
Labels: bobbistorm, Caribbean, cheesecake, Cuba, flooding, Florida, holiday, keylime, Margaritaville, models, rain, Shavous, Shavout, spaghettimodels, tropics, weather, yucatan
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:51 AM
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