A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Historic Flooding from IMELDA In Some Areas More than 30 inches... 43 Inches in Some Areas. 1 Death So Far. Jerry Going to Bermuda? Maybe. Copy Cat Following Humberto.
Still raining after all this time.
And the rain...the weather didn't move deep inland.
It's spreading into Louisiana.
The TX/LA border of the Sabine River.
Nice little towns. Bayous. Swamps.
I-10 is still closed.
Many roads are impassable.
Flooding worst than Allison...
... a real mini Harvey going on.
The scope of this disaster is heard to comprehend.
Kind of says it all as I was taught that how people treat their animals says a lot about them. And we have had a death during this horrible storm when a young man was hit by lightning.
He was out in his boat trying to help stranded people.
So sad. Very sad.
People were begging for help.
Looking for ways to help.
Twitter account for the Cajun Navy.
If you know anyone who needs help...
...or you want to help.
I was going to write about models.
I looped a lot models.
Nothing new to tell really.
I have a headache and the models make it worse.
I had the sound down on the TV while writing.
And had to turn the sound up to figure this one out.
They are begging people to say off the roads.
And this is the point here.
I knew something like this would happen.
And the system was easily identifiable on loops.
And there should have been....
...could have been more warning to people.
Slow moving rains causing slow motion tragedy.
I'm not interested in the "center" the NHC tracked inland.
And I'm not interested in them telling people to look elsewhere.
Image of the cute map from the site they are sending ppl to...
...see previous blog. I love maps but that doesn't cut it.
He's doing such a good job at TWC & he's able to talk in his words and he's begging people to shelter in place, stay inside & covering this #disaster from #Imelda better than he could at the NHC ... https://t.co/vteWce7Waf he knows, people should listen to him
Note also the high pressure over the SE (beautiful in Raleigh today) and both the #Carib#blob & #Jerry have no where to go but to follow #Humberto singing follow me. Turn sound up. No... I’m not singing. Looping and #writing lows move towards lows & away from high pressure pic.twitter.com/aFumQ3xQ3x
11 PM UPDATE - Tropical Storm Barry Forming From PTC2 in the GOM CLOSE TO LAND. Forecast to be Cat 1 Hurricane by NHC. Louisiana in the Cross Hairs for RAIN FLOODING. Recon going in later today. NHC Cone. Tropics NOW.
11 PM Update on PTC2
Maybe tomorrow.....
Still only 30 MPH
Broad center with multiple centers.
The center has not stacked yet.
Kind of a center but no cigar..
Note it's a very slow mover for a while.
At some point it picks up speed.
Develops close in over very warm waters.
Caveat here is IF a real center stacks up.
Models insist that will happen.
Note salient discussion points tonight from NHC
"multiple low level swirls associated with individual convective
cells were noted in the aircraft wind data"
Great product NHC puts out.
Flooding potential...
Will start over in the morning.
Maybe tomorrow..
Tomorrow is always a day away.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
Recon may have found a center........
........waiting to see what NHC says.
NHC said they found a broad center...........
and another smaller center and another.
Not there yet was the verdict.
Recon pulling pressures near 1005 mb with a LLC clearly defined. Likely to have a fully tropical system (TD or weak TS) very soon. #PTC2#Barrypic.twitter.com/LRkWYszW0s
We know it will be slow movement for the short term.
If someone asks you what category this Gulf system will be, tell them SLOW. That category of slow-moving storms of any intensity that can dump more than a foot of rain, and that can take more lives due to inland flooding than from any other hazard. #TurnAroundDontDrownpic.twitter.com/VAfILhB9du
The official NOAA forecast has it over LA thru Monday.
That could change.
But the flooding inland would be a problem.
My bottom line:
Let me explain how this goes. It's currently raining off and on in Louisiana and other places nearby. There was flooding this morning as well as a tornado. It floods easily there but more easily with heavy tropical rain. The river is already swollen... you know the Mississippi River and it's low lying filled with lots of bayous that flood. That water rises and the structures holding it will have problems with it and yes I'm talking about a slow moving minimal hurricane. Then it makes landfall and moves SLOWLY UP River... that is flooding.......then it moves further up into Texas, Mississippi and Arkansas not to let E Oklahoma off the hook. That adds more water to the River and where do you think that water goes? Well it tries to go downstream. This has the potential for a real, flooding mess that will impact many people's lives over a wide area and it's the beginning of the hurricane season so who knows what else will come there way later in the season.
Oh and the Atlantic is about to come alive.
As in 1-2-3 or rather 3-4-5
ABC .. that fast.
Until the steering currents open up the gates.
And let Barry leave....
... Barry is stuck as seen here.
And it's slowly coming together.
Some models show a stronger hurricane.
We can talk on that tomorrow.
You have a big bull in a China Shop.
A tea kettle full and spilling over everywhere.
Flooding.
This is the concern here........
As for me I'm going out tonight.
I'm going to wear my Drunk Donkey Tee Shirt
And wear a real short skirt ;)
(giggling)
And eat good Southern Food and drink Craft Beer.
And I'll be back to see what we see...
Thank you TREMENDOUSLY for your feedback ...
...and great discussion on Twitter and elsewhere.
Sweet Tropical Dreams...
BobbiStorm on Twitter & Instagram.
Follow me there for real time discusison.
Note it's raining all over the place...
N FL to LA/TX border.
Not a good set up before landfall.
Before we even knew it's name was Tropical Storm Barry..
Besos .........
I'm sure I'm part of that huge number of hits ;)
* * *
2 PM
Note NHC has this as HURRICANE BARRY at landfall.
What category depends on many things.
Note it's a developing cyclone.
Movement WSW currently.
That could also be part of center reforming.
We don't have a clear cut center.
High behind it is strong.
High to it's NW is strong and moving East.
You can use the loop and see this happening as well.
991 mb #EURO vs 986 mb #GFS one run, model runs vary from one run to another... watch the trend, prepare as told to by local authorities & nhc https://t.co/pexSaST2e2
Some of the latest model guidance is showing the upper trough over New England to be weaker each run, which allows the high pressure ridge over the rockies to steer the storm more west. #PTC2pic.twitter.com/dlpEybluZi
— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) July 10, 2019
Note the river flooding problem goes N up into Arkansas possibly.
The reason I was upset yesterday about the slowness of the NHC to put out their PTC2 product is because in this case it's not about LANDFALL today but about rain ahead of Barry while PTC2 tried to come together. You add in WARM WATER and localized rain and HOT weather and you have rain falling in flash flood proportions TODAY.. and I knew that would happen YESTERDAY. There is way too much obsession on what city will get to be landfall as if it's some contest. This is not a Cat 5 Hurricane with a small core of dangerous winds that people need to know where that tight Andrew like eye is going as much as WHERE IS THE WEATHER GOING and WHO WILL GET FLOODING and that area is a wide swath along the many populated cities that lie from the Mobile to Houston. Houston is not in the cone but does Barry wrap up or does it's weather go everywhere? It's a difficult forecast for the NHC as it's evolving and developing in real time. And time is of the essence to prepare both down by the Gulf of Mexico and up in the back woods prone to flooding along the Mississippi River, the Pearl River and the Sabine River. Lots of rivers and bayous there and they are all prone to flooding even far from the point of landfall.
I had to stop writing to take a picture of the TV.
Yes, how Old School.
Welcome to my world.
No time to play with webcams or searches.
TWC showing the webcam.
Duh...so ignore the "took a pic of tv" look.
The message is the thing here.
And yes I have a map on my wall.
Told you I love maps.
Note this TWEET 15 HOURS AGO.
This will need to be watched for potential river flooding in New Orleans due to Invest #92L, which will likely become #Barry --> https://t.co/bFwpvZvLEN
— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) July 9, 2019
Understand New Orleans and areas around it....
........do not need Harvey like rain totals to flood.
Actually Houston floods fast too.
It's BAYOU country.
It's a swamp basically.
This is the problem.
Barry won't be Camille.
This is not a wind event but a rain/flooding event.
NOTE... the models again.
Posting this twice.
The HWRF last night set the tropical world on fire.
It showed RI upon landfall and a strong hurricane.
Everyone went crazy on that one model run.
As they do every time the GFS agrees with the EURO.
HWRF had it's 15 minutes of fame.
IF that happens everyone will ask about the HWRF.
The next run pulled back a bit this morning.
Oh well.
Note the ICON is being watched by many.
So let's let RECON fly into the plane.
Let's let the NHC do it's official thing.
The GOVERNOR of LOUISIANA DIDN'T WAIT.
Nola is not playing wait and watch game.
Their mets know the story.
Check the loop out below.
Note this is an official GOV product
We have a Low by Louisiana.
NOTE the WHOLE LOOP it's under RAIN.
Rain is the name of the GAME.
Lastly IF Barry goes up into the Mississippi River Valley.
There will be more rain as it's been at Flood Stage since February.
It really can't handle that much rain.
So while no it's not Harvey sort of rain.
It's still way too much and a pain.
It's not that hard to see where the NHC will put the cone.
Louisiana for now.
Texas near the Sabine River COULD be in it.
It could move closer to Mississippi or Texas....
if something changes.
Things often change in real time.
So keep checking back.
Pay attention to your local weather sources.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
