Hurricane Harbor: Watching the GOM for a TD or TS Alberto Could Form in the Eastern GOM This Weekend Going Into Early Next Week. Mother's Day Weekend.

A brief update that is more foreshadowing than anything else as something may be developing over the weekend in the tropics. A combination of an Upper Level Feature and a dangling, decaying frontal boundary provide the recipe for tropical trouble this time of year as it may not be too soon to get a named storm. I'm not sure this will get a name vs designation in the way of Invest or a Tropical Depression. You can see these features above that we are watching and the models are spitting out various, similar solutions.

It's hard to see but there is a very small closed low that comes ashore on the Florida Panhandle in the model above. What is more compelling in the long run is the HUGE High off the coast of Florida that takes up much of the Atlantic. ANYTHING and EVERYTHING that forms will be propelled West towards the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and of course Florida. For now this is the pattern and as long as we have old frontal boundaries dangling around Florida we have the potential for tropical trouble be it a wander Upper Level Low or a westbound tropical wave. The satellite is below.

Currently there is no Yellow X.

No box to watch ....

But it's coming.

I'm pretty sure when I am done with the Jewish Sabbath Saturday Night I'll go online and find a yellow X and if not a yellow X it will be so close I'll be able to smell the yellow color on the map. Unless all the models pull back out immediately and pretend they never said nothing about something happening the set up is there for a tropical scenario. And, rain... copious amounts of rain and local flooding will happen with or without a name in Florida. My gut feeling is if this develops the rain may be quite heavy far from the actual small closed low so know wherever you are in Florida you will be dealing with rain.