Tropics on Mother's Day. A 2 Part Discussion on Possible Tropical Development and Rain Over Florida.

I want to explain something here on Mother's Day before I head out in search of what really makes me smile and looking forward to that as my husband said the other day "find a place by the Beach for Mother's Day" and I did..

There are two issues here going on and it's important not to be distracted by what seems like the details. There is a blob of rain over the SE GOM spreading up over most of Florida. A room by the beach in the Florida Keys or Miami Beach today would be only a day a storm chaser would love. But you grab the sunshine while you can and there's always lots to do inside. Spread the money around in restaurants, stores and bars and help the economy a long a bit today while making mother happy.  If your mother has passed on or wasn't a stellar mother then go out and celebrate the day, because without her you would not be here. One thing we all have in common is a mother or a mother surrogate of some kind who nurtured us or didn't. This blog is not going the way I wanted it go to. Let's go back to the weather.

1. An area of disturbed weather that is harassing Floridians today. The area looks almost organized yet it is not it is mostly a blob. As it moves North it has a window of opportunity where it could develop close in to the Florida coast somewhere between the Big Bend and the Panhandle Beaches. Time will tell. Today is a good day to listen to Jimmy Buffet. There are models I could show you but I won't as I'm waiting to hit the road and still trying to figure out which make up to bring. Really. Models come and models go and in the end when dealing with a possible May GOM system it's best to watch the system. See the map below. If you do not live in that part of Florida this system is all about rain and not a name or designation.

This is the story below in 3 parts.

1. A long frontal boundary is hovering over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits. The front is dead in the water and has lingered too long and something could develop at the tail end of the front. The area is highlighted on one of our guides below, but the NHC has not yet blinked and put up a yellow circle anywhere.

2. Note the area down by Panama (which my son says is a great place to visit) has a small purple swatch of color. No one pays attention to it because they are all watching the the blob over South Florida. In fact the stronger chance of development comes later this week in the Caribbean. Now, this area could float West into the EPAC (Eastern Pacific for Newbies) and develop there as often happens this time of year. It's kind of a crap shoot at this point what happens, but the only certain thing is we will be all be watching and trying to provide you with the best information while keeping it simple and/or trying to entertain you and ourselves a bit.

Again Part 1

Part 2

A shout out to Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com fame as he complained a while back that TWC was getting too preachy and sounding too much like a science class. What he means (I'm good at being his translator) it's getting boring and depressing. Enough already. Every time I turn it on they are either trying to teach me how clouds rise up in the sky or showing horrible stories about babies being left in a hot car. One of the reasons I used to LOVE TWC is that I didn't have to watch depressing local news stories on the news or 24 hour cable news. It showed a progression of fronts and storms and they talked about weather all the time. I don't want to hear every sad story out there and there are many great outlets available to teach people how to keep their dogs water bowl filled and to get an APP to remind them their crying child finally fell asleep or that their mother fell down and needs a necklace she does NOT want to wear to call the paramedics that she fell down. I have also had enough of the pillow guy (that one is for Jim at www.hurricanecity.com) TWC was NOT supposed to be the Home Shopping Club. And, spoiler alert if you are sitting at home watching The Weather Channel you probably know how clouds form and that's why you are watching cause you want to see what the WEATHER is, will be or might be. Just do the fricking weather report; play some good music and feel free to do great chit chat like Dave Schwartz used to do WHILE showing us the WEATHER.

As for my mother and those who mothered me properly it seems to have taken a village. I was raised living next door to my Grandma Mary and my Aunt Ada and I don't have to tell you how there was something special about my Grandma Mary ... as we have spoken on that enough. They each in their way imparted lessons to me in life about giving the dog water, walking the dog and worrying to death over leaving the baby in a parked car or the shopping cart in Publix (a reoccurring dream I used to have when I was a young mother) and they gave me a love for weather, the South, the beach and family. So here's to you Mother, Aunt Ada and Grandma Mary I am who I am from your joint efforts. Thank you. Sadly they are only here in memories and pictures. That's me as a very young mother obviously too clueless and tired to put some make up on or brush my hair for a picture but the issue that day was my oldest child and being together as family.

Happy Mother's Day and enjoy the day whether you have good memories or bad ones ... whether you have kids or you don't and weather you like the pillow guy or are also annoyed with TWC as I had put actually put on News this morning rather than watch TWC because there wasn't any weather going on today...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... as a special present to me I am not editing this today and may I suggest as a nation we stop fighting because we have different political views. Spoiler Alert that is why we have multiple parties and people who are Independents. Get back to the way it was when you could sit out on the porch and smoke a cigar or have a good drink while talking weather and politics with people you don't always vote the same as but who you like anyway!

Watching the GOM for a TD or TS Alberto Could Form in the Eastern GOM This Weekend Going Into Early Next Week. Mother's Day Weekend.

A brief update that is more foreshadowing than anything else as something may be developing over the weekend in the tropics. A combination of an Upper Level Feature and a dangling, decaying frontal boundary provide the recipe for tropical trouble this time of year as it may not be too soon to get a named storm. I'm not sure this will get a name vs designation in the way of Invest or a Tropical Depression. You can see these features above that we are watching and the models are spitting out various, similar solutions.

It's hard to see but there is a very small closed low that comes ashore on the Florida Panhandle in the model above. What is more compelling in the long run is the HUGE High off the coast of Florida that takes up much of the Atlantic. ANYTHING and EVERYTHING that forms will be propelled West towards the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and of course Florida. For now this is the pattern and as long as we have old frontal boundaries dangling around Florida we have the potential for tropical trouble be it a wander Upper Level Low or a westbound tropical wave. The satellite is below.

Currently there is no Yellow X.

No box to watch .... 

But it's coming.

I'm pretty sure when I am done with the Jewish Sabbath Saturday Night I'll go online and find a yellow X and if not a yellow X it will be so close I'll be able to smell the yellow color on the map. Unless all the models pull back out immediately and pretend they never said nothing about something happening the set up is there for a tropical scenario. And, rain... copious amounts of rain and local flooding will happen with or without a name in Florida. My gut feeling is if this develops the rain may be quite heavy far from the actual small closed low so know wherever you are in Florida you will be dealing with rain.

And what happens in Florida....

...moves up into Georgia.

I'll be back Saturday Night.

Til then www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike has all the info you need.

Also check out his Twitter feed on that page.

Lots of great information.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Have a wonderful Mother's Day Weekend!

May storms are not uncommon.

The last Alberto formed the same time period in May.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/19/us/tropical-weather/index.html