Updated Tropics Friday Evening.. 8 PM Yellow Circle Over Florida. Watching Models and Loops... Waves That are Silent Runners and Close In Areas for Possible Development.

Late breaking as expected NHC put up a yellow X over N FL

Putting this up fast before going off for the night.

As I pointed out earlier the potential was there.

As I expected the NHC put up a Yellow X over FL

Low chances for now.

Let's see what it's got going for it.

Somewhere off the SE coast a storm could form.

Tropical Depression or Tropical Disturbance?

Either way it's Tropical Rain.

Could it get a name?

Stay tuned.

Please go to www.spaghettimodels.com for updates.

I'm off for the Jewish Sabbath til tomorrow evening.

Have a blessed, beautiful weekend!

Official bottom line from the NHC.

Please keep reading as I wrote this earlier.

In anticipation of the 8PM update.

Note written earlier around 6 PM my thoughts...

NHC still has their nothing happening sign up.
Other signs point to possible development.
But as the song goes... time will tell.

Will the NHC respond soon with a small yellow circle?

Only the NHC knows..

(adding in here... yes they did...)

So I'm going to put this out here as sometimes things change rapidly close in, however nothing is expected to form or develop, it's a lot of moisture congregating around North Florida in the Gulf of Mexico. Some models play at concentrating the moisture into stronger areas of convection but they refrain from developing a named storm. Everyone is talking, complaining and bitching about the rain in parts of Florida and for good reason; it's been a whole lot of rain.

Most of social media has showed this one...

I feel their pain but it's no name rain for now.

Kind of looks like there's some spin.

Or it wants to spin.

But it's parked there.

Note there is another area off the Carolinas.

Down in the Caribbean there's more rain.

What's a bigger story than the rain?

The shear.....

If you thought SAL was bad....

...you haven't seen the shear maps.

Red means No.

Green means Go.

There's a sliver of where there isn't much shear.

And where there is less shear in the Atlantic....

...there's SAL.

Tho the set up with SAL may be slowly waning.

Things will be changing the next week or so a bit.

But unless something spins up fast close in...

...where there's warm water and green on the shear map.

It's rain.

Lots and lots of rain.

Mike has dubbed it a blob.

He's right on some levels.

The blob may shift around a bit.

But it's a blob of rain.

As for me I keep wondering if the NHC...

...is gonna put up a yellow circle over Arkansas.

Post traumatic Stress from the Yellow Circle over Tennessee

I guess ;)

Every day that blob forms...

...the new purple blob on Planet Earth.

Hang in there.... keep reading.

If models show some support.

The NHC could put up a yellow area.

But either way it's still rain.

Keep watching.

Trust me I will be.

Til we get something official from the NHC...

... just keep watching.

It's like when you used to wait for the phone to ring.

Remember that? 

Some of you do...

...some don't.

Now days we get nervous when the phone rings.

Change is the one constant in our world.

If the phone doesn't ring it's me....

(keep reading if you didn't read Friday morning)

Some great links to loops you might want to save.

Or just save my blog ;)

I'd like to be out in the eye of the storm.

Bet some one here would like to be...

...in the eye of the storm.

Or at least at the beach in a storm.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Can show it to you in Color too!

Not the strongest Atlantic waves today.

But they keep hanging in there...

...or trying to anyway.

Indian Ocean lit up.

But our wave train should depart the station soon.

Sometimes trains are late...

...if you use Amtrak you'll know what I mean.

So that's the wide view of the tropics above.

A wave that left Africa in the MDR.

MDR = Main Development Region for newbies.

Cluster of Convection in the NE GOM

Later with the heat of the day it will fire up more.

A weak Caribbean wave moving Westbound.

Why do we watch weak Caribbean waves you ask?

@DaDaBuh has a rule.

Okay he has LOTS of rules....

But he explains this well.

They move along like silent runners.

Barely there and then hit the 50 yard line.

Often waves can flare up in the Caribbean ....

...down near the Yucatan.

Sometimes the North end of a wave flares up....

...near PR and suddenly close to Florida.

Until the Atlantic Waves begin doing their thing.

We watch close in areas for development.

When the Atlantic Waves begin to kick in.

You'll know as everyone goes crazy.

Those dotted lines in the Atlantic....

...show the Saharan Dust.

There is a wave there way South of the SAL.

But the SAL sucks moisture out like a vacuum cleaner.

Kind of like this.

And everyone watching the tropics falls asleep.....

Not easy for people who wake up and check the NHC.

What else can you check? 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

When things are slow in the tropics, as they usually are this time of year, it's good to read the NHC discussion on the Atlantic Basin. They have something to say about everything and often the amount of attention they give an area of the exact words they use show what they are watching for down the road development or by contrast areas they believe are shut down due to unfavorable conditions.

That's our area close in connected to constant convection and watching for any possibility of low pressure that could spin up. This front has become a semi permanent feature kicking up convection from the Carolinas to Florida and out into the Gulf of Mexico. The models have spit out small lows off the Carolinas and some believe models are indicating that low pressure could become an issue in the Central Gulf of Mexico. I'm a big believer if anything forms in the Gulf of Mexico that remains weak it will hook right to the NE or NNE with the flow. But eventually things can change so you can't judge next week by this week, but it's been a very persistent problem. And, until cooler air dives down and shoves these fronts out to sea each front replaces the previous front and where we had a large High Pressure System parked over the SE we now have a frontal boundary that doesn't want to leave. Often.... it's something big.... from up above or down below that kicks that pattern out. Could that kicker be a tropical storm or hurricane down the road? Probably faster than an Arctic front. Mother Nature generally finds a way to get it done.

Currently here's the picture.

Frontal Boundary.

Little orange dot is the current Caribbean Wave.

Moving along West bound.

Under a layer of shear that's there.

Will something develop?

Maybe. 

But the location of it developing tells the story.

There is the chance it can develop near Louisiana..

(for example)

And crawl along the coastal boundary....

Visiting all the beach cities along the way.

Weak development means everyone gets weather.

Loops to watch and ponder on as we wait for the tropics to heat up and conditions to become favorable to where something could form close in or far away.

The wider view.

Big wave rolls off of Africa.

Goes poof in the water.

Does it flare up again?

That time of year that feels as if nothing will form ever.

And then it does.

Now look close in at Florida.

Always raining somewhere.

The sun goes up....

...the sun goes down.

August Climo.

Where do storms most likely form?

As for some Hurricane History?

1999 after a fast start was slow.

Then as usual it began to get busy.

Note how the switch was flipped.

A strong high and SAL owned the Atlantic.

And then it did not.

A look back at the beginning of Floyd.

I'll be back later this weekend...

...or if something pops up.

But for now...

Enjoy the summer.

What's left of the summer.

Go to the movies.

Go to the beach (but watch the weather)

Take the boat out if the weather is somewhere else.

Go shopping.

Lord knows there's a Mall somewhere that needs ya.

And as always.... enjoy life.

But buy hurricane supplies when you see them.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

As for me.......... you know what I'll be doing.

Making Sangria to go with dinner tonight.

Sunday Night Update Tropics .... GOM System Chances Keep Rising.

Putting this up here to compare and contrast Monday AM.

NHC religiously upping percentage it seems.

To quote a song poorly...

They must be a believer.

3 images below.

Note the system that lights the fuse is in GA now.

Cruising down the Interstate... 

...looking for a beach somewhere.

Maybe ti stays in Atlanta.

I was conceived in Atlanta.

I know... too much information.

But true.

See the round sort of circle around Florida.

It's as if Florida is in a huge circle.

Note they moved back to Miami because pregnant.

Mother wanted to be closer to her Momma.

Yes I call my mother Mother.

I call my father Daddy... 

Don't even try and psychoanalyze me.

Put this all in motion.

I know nice littler weak, Westbound wave.

High pressure aloft.... 

Shear decreasing in GOM

Feature descending down into the GOM.

Play in 3 Acts below.

Act 1

Close to my July 10th date (give or take a day or so)

A Low forms in the GOM.

Close to land... close to Florida.

Ups the moisture feed.

Thunderstorms.

Act 2

Our Low... maybe Barry or a Depression.

Dances on stage...

...does a little tap dance.

A shuffle step... 

Cold front appears closer.

Antagonist and our hero shown below.

Act 3

Oh no.......... Cold front turns stationary.

Hmnn what happens?

Does Barry rain himself out?

Does Barry become Barry?

High to the North blocks him.

High to the East (kind of)

Does he go back into the GOM?

(Just kidding... kind of)

Fronts do look a bit flat after all that drama don't they?

The GFS that no one wants to go with shows the energy that might be Barry going up more to the right as a somewhat weaker system and note that can change on the next model run. The "King EURO" as it's called develops Barry deeper as in "can it reach hurricane status?" and takes it to New Orleans to ride a Streetcar and rains fall all across the area West of the Sabine River (according to Larry Cosgrove) and again this could change on the next model run. Larry was talking in general not any one model. Texas for now seems safe but who knows tomorrow.

Some thoughts online and good graphics are shown below:

And Dabuh has pinned a Tweet.

Mike was last seen in Daytona in a big pool.

I believe he said "best $70 ever spent"

He even takes great storm pics on vacation.

Okay living vicariously a bit through him.

He knows how to have fun.

That's a good thing.

Anyway... everyone should relax, watch the models as some sort of lava lamp always oozing about with new solutions and keep one eye on the real system up in Georgia or as some of us call it Jo-Ja and as it cruises past my family's old tobacco plantations in Quincy Florida on it's way to a beach somewhere we will have a better idea if it will be Barry or just a pissant depression annoying the hell out of all of us. Seriously until it arrives at it's destination (not to be confused with Destin) we won't know when for sure it arrives, how long it wants to stay and if the HUGE HIGH wants to push him West towards the MISSISSIPPI (never forget how to spell that) and or if it does the normal lunge towards the Big Bend of Florida. The NHC out of an abundance of caution because they have our backs will watch it carefully as historically systems arriving into the hot water of the Gulf of Mexico where a swirl already exists and shear is forecast to weaken and a high could build in aloft making this a fast changing situation and a set up from hell to forecast. So everyone CHILL OUT get some rest, relax a bit and enjoy the quiet Monday as we will be tracking SOMETHING later this week and it could get hairy... that's hairy not Harry because if it forms it will be Barry.

Breathe a bit and keep watching those California earthquakes.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram. Follow me there for faster updates in real time.

Ps... Went to see Yesterday today with my husband when it was so hot in Raleigh and humid it felt like Miami and it was good. Not as good as Green Book of course but cute... 

Tropical Disturbance 1 and Tornado Warnings Continue... Flooding Will Persist. Enjoy the Weekend!

Let's look at the satellite image first to get perspective.

You can watch as the Disturbance slides up the Florida Coast.

Out over water and kicking up showers in the Carolinas.

Travel today on I95 in that region will be impacted by weather.

To the West is the front that is moving slowly East for a rendezvous ...

The disturbance grabs a ride out of town with the front.

But timing is always difficult as things are fluid. 

Especially in May.

Fronts are not as strong and don't sweep down.

This system has been lingering for a while.

Below you can see how it looked down near South Florida

It's rain spread out across Florida.

Yesterday Mike went Live as the West Coast of FL was impacted.

Why? In truth there is a strong high to it's East.

That pushes it further West and so all of Florida was in it

We officially call it Tropical Disturbance.
It's basically a trough of bad weather.

With a chance, a small chance, for some development.

Tampa yesterday.

When Mike was doing a Facebook Live.

Stormy.

This morning it has moved up the coast.

The X is near Florida but the weather along the trough is moving North.

There is no real organization.

Weather is everywhere

It's going to continue crawling up the coast.

Eventually meeting up with the front.

You get the idea.

Rain everywhere.

A reminder you need to prepare for Hurricane Season.

Patterns persist in the short term.

Sometimes patterns persist over time.

Tornadoes on the Southern Plains will continue.

Flooding in the general Mississippi River Valley will continue.

It's that time of year.

Wishing you all a happy and blessed weekend.

May you have love, happiness and the weather you love.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... As for me going to my local Chabad House on Shabbos.  Sunday either the beach or Pittsboro First Sunday... will see which calls the most but probably a fun Street Fair with friends.

Spread the love and kindness...

Monday. New Week. New Models. Possible Snow Storm in the Wings. Keep Watching for it to ... Come Together

Quick post on the upcoming week and the week that was and how it's all connected. It's been warm and mild (though rainy) in the Carolinas this January despite every person who predicted a colder than normal winter we have yet to see it really take control. In November we had an early winter storm that much like an early May hurricane got everyone excited while many know that early May storms happen in slow hurricane seasons. Time will tell as always. There's a lot to deal with as there are two Jet Streams and they need to come together and hook up with Arctic Air to really get us there.

Yesterday it was hot, sunny and flirting with a high of 70 degrees so being the good Capricorn I am I figure if life gives you lemons make pink lemonade and enjoy it. So we went to the beach, Wrightsville Beach in particular as it's the closest beach to Raleigh and there's much to do in Wilmington while there. There is nothing like a Carolina Beach really and I've seen a lot of beaches from Seattle to LA to Maine to Miami. They are peaceful, family oriented more than most and filled with a sense of peace and a beauty all their own. The beach in the off season is always preferable to the busiest days of summer. Except for a spattering of blue tarps (not many) and the sea oats being thinned out you couldn't tell Florence had ever been there.... go figure. Florence was more a stuck rain storm and flooding event than Michael that sandblasted North Florida beaches leaving them looking as if a nuclear bomb went off in places from storm surge and wicked winds. It will take North Florida a long time to look as if Michael had never been there. I will say I noticed the hanging moss took quite a hit in Wilmington much the way Matthew pruned the hanging moss in Savannah. Life goes on at the beach.

There I am looking for a shell I liked.

Planted there, not moving til I found it.

I took off the leggings and put them back on.

Wrapped a sweater around me in case I needed it.

The pier is windier and colder than the beach.

Nuff said. It was warm but the wind was chilly.

The water was cold but not as cold as usual in January.

I walked barefoot in and out of the water.

It was glorious.

On Twitter people argued a lot it seems.

I missed it as I was at the beach.......

When there is no winter in winter...

...weather people get a little nuts.

When it's hurricane season and it's slow...

... people get very nasty and fight.

Weather people need weather like....

...I seem to need to see the ocean.

Luckily the models are tossing us possibilities.

It's going to be Mid January this weekend.

If not now when?

A voice I trust very much.

Before I lived here I followed him for hurricanes.

He's good, very good.

Further North you go the better chance of snow.

As always Raleigh is on the edge.

Always and forever ...

...seriously!

So I look to see what Allan Huffman has to say..

And Cranky brings it all together as usual.

He knows winter storms.

Does well with hurricanes but well...

...he is more in the heart of the winter world than me.

So you may want to read his blog.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e010719.htm

NY/NJ/NE do they get a real winter storm?

How about the Carolinas........

As always great folksy advice from Chick ;)

When I suggested bourbon in my French Toast...

It's a winter thing you buy eggs and bread and milk.

French Toast for Snow Storms in the Carolinas.

Will it all come together?

Keep watching.

Time will tell.



Til then keep watching the models, enjoy real weather discussion on Twitter for a change and the possibility that we may be able to wear any new winter clothes or boots before we have to put them away for summer.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps....and until then another Allan is right we will be watching the models and what all of our favorite weather people have to say. Speaking of models I'll be spending a whole lot of time on www.spaghettimodels.com

For one of my favorite people round here.... Yeah I want weather, I want weather bad and this winter has been a bit crazy and the crazier the better when it comes to weather so yeah... I want a crazy, Carolina winter snow storm and to talk endlessly about it online. And, I'll be in NYC in late January so figure I can see snow either way then .... (seen long range models) and early February in Florida so need winter weather NOW in January but either way...... grateful for short sleeves weather in January and the beautiful beach... but love a good ending with snow falling ;) Got home in time to collapse into bed under the covers cause when the sun goes down in the Carolinas in Winter it does get cold and watch the Golden Globes. Yay! :)