Tropical Disturbance 1 and Tornado Warnings Continue... Flooding Will Persist. Enjoy the Weekend!

Let's look at the satellite image first to get perspective.

You can watch as the Disturbance slides up the Florida Coast.

Out over water and kicking up showers in the Carolinas.

Travel today on I95 in that region will be impacted by weather.

To the West is the front that is moving slowly East for a rendezvous ...

The disturbance grabs a ride out of town with the front.

But timing is always difficult as things are fluid. 

Especially in May.

Fronts are not as strong and don't sweep down.

This system has been lingering for a while.

Below you can see how it looked down near South Florida

It's rain spread out across Florida.

Yesterday Mike went Live as the West Coast of FL was impacted.

Why? In truth there is a strong high to it's East.

That pushes it further West and so all of Florida was in it

We officially call it Tropical Disturbance.
It's basically a trough of bad weather.

With a chance, a small chance, for some development.

Tampa yesterday.

When Mike was doing a Facebook Live.

Stormy.

This morning it has moved up the coast.

The X is near Florida but the weather along the trough is moving North.

There is no real organization.

Weather is everywhere

It's going to continue crawling up the coast.

Eventually meeting up with the front.

You get the idea.

Rain everywhere.

A reminder you need to prepare for Hurricane Season.

Patterns persist in the short term.

Sometimes patterns persist over time.

Tornadoes on the Southern Plains will continue.

Flooding in the general Mississippi River Valley will continue.

It's that time of year.

Wishing you all a happy and blessed weekend.

May you have love, happiness and the weather you love.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... As for me going to my local Chabad House on Shabbos.  Sunday either the beach or Pittsboro First Sunday... will see which calls the most but probably a fun Street Fair with friends.

Spread the love and kindness...

UPDATED 7 PM It Begins Early - 2019 Hurricane Season. Area of Interest. Code Yellow. Off South Florida in Bahamas. Florida Tropical Rains

7 PM Update

Will update if anything changes later.

Some May Tropical Storm History...

Andrea of 2007 formed near here.

It's a popular breeding ground for May and June systems.

So the question here Wednesday Evening is...

Why do we watch this early in May?

Because May storms do form and often in this region.

Subtropical Storm Andrea is an example.

Look how nicely formed Andrea was in 2007

Same name, different year.

Subtropical Storm formed on May 9th near Daytona Beach.

Andrea didn't last long, but it made it's mark on tropical history.

Originally it was a non tropical low then became subtropical.

Looking at other years you will see many A B C named storms...

..form early in these same breeding grounds.

2012 above show 1, 2, 3 and 4 all formed close in.

Check out 2015 below... 

Storm #1 starts where our disturbance is now.

So you can't count out some kind of development.

But the big weather news today is tornado warnings elsewhere.

That time of year.......

Now back to our Disturbance 1

It's holding it's own.

Staring at Florida.....

...but not really a threat.

A reminder that Hurricane Season is almost here!

Seems Andrea in 2007 found it's groove.

Jury is out on Disturbance 1.

More details below.

***

What? Still there at 0% 2 days and 20% in the 5 day.

Who? Where?

Just ESE of Miami - WPB area.

When might it develop? 3 to 5 days...

Down the road as it slides up along the coast.. 

... a cold front is moving towards it to pick it up.

(in theory...)

What can you do?

https://wsvn.com/weather/

My choice of info in South Florida.

Miami.........

Many good links to info on Spaghetti Models as well.

Learn and educate yourself about Hurricane Season.

Not for this Bahama Blob...

...but for the next one that cruises into those waters.

Or the one after that........

May and June usually mean weak systems.

(though not always)

July and August things really heat up.

September Remember.

Just think of the song...

I'll update later.

For now we are just all watching.

Oh the models........

(remember it's May and currently no real center)

Models show weather.

Weather kicking up it's heels.

Windy, wet day along the coast.

NAM shows something further up the coast...

Euro shows WEATHER concentrated around the same spot.

Here's the real area to watch.....

I'll update if anything pops up...

20% chance over 5 days time.

The longer it sits the longer it festers.

As we have talked about online this was expected.

Actual discussion from NHC

What does this really mean?

For now some Florida rain....

...maybe it will get gusty.

It means the pattern is in place and setting up.

Currently there is shear there....

but the longer it sits the better it gets.

It's had "that look" for days.

Increased moisture for Florida, GA & Coastal Carolinas.

The loop below shows heavy rain along the Florida East Coast.

The front moving down towards the disturbance.

Again the graphic below shows the area being watched.

Zero percent today.

So when it rains in Miami today...

...stay calm, enjoy the rain.

Look for it to slide up along the coast and maybe find a sweet spot.

If it has a chance at all it needs to find that sweet spot.

Somewhere between Ormond Beach and Wrightsville Beach...

...it could find a sweet spot with lower shear and better conditions.

Meanwhile it will rain in Miami and along the Florida East Coast.

Bahamas Blob (as Mike calls it) will make Bahamas messy.

This was not unexpected.

I tweeted this yesterday.

But what will happen tomorrow?

Remember though we are not 1 month away til Hurricane Season.

And Mother Nature doesn't always follow the rules.

I'll be back with a full update this evening.

This was yesterday.

Been watching this for days.

It's tenacity has been admirable.

It's easy to talk models ....

... it's too early.

Models this time of year spit out crazy solutions...

Well to be honest models often do...

What you need to know is something is there.

And it has a small chance of developing a bit.

We are officially tracking an an area of interest.

Yellow colored.

Might develop some.

Keep watching.

Check back soon....

And yes I bought my 2019 tee shirt.

No not the Donkey but maybe....

I like palm trees bending in the wind.

Have you bought yours?

Are you ready for the Hurricane Season?

I was in Miami for two weeks.

Trust me the heat is on...the water is warm.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for updates in real time.

Updated! Tropical Disturbance Over South Florida Brings Tornado Warnings ... Cantore in South Florida. Hmnn. Down the Road a 2nd System May Form in the Caribbean and Aim At South Florida from the South and Be Way Stronger Than Today's Disturbance.

It's now officially "Disturbance 1"

Ok....

I called it a tropical disturbance earlier this morning and that is what it is and currently nothing more. However, if you watch it on the radar and satellite imagery you will see it is beginning to get a more "tropical" presentation rather than just a blob. This could get a name even as a Subtropical Storm but it could just as easily become tropical very close in to landfall. Til then it is slowly cruising up the West coast of Florida dumping rain across the state.

Keep reading.

Keep watching.

No Invest yet but that may come.

Cantore is in place.

How long will it take...

...for the NHC to get it's act together?

Welcome to the 2018 Hurricane Season.

 And TWC is in South Florida.

Of course....

Reality bites a bit early this year.

WPB had what seems to have been a tornado and while they are debating based on the damage if it was or wasn't but this tropical disturbance has already brought flooding rains and tornado warnings. And, it's just getting started. Meanwhile I'm in Myrtle Beach watching from a beautiful hotel room taking turns looking out at the ocean and watching TWC. We got weather now...

Yes it's a beach sunrise.

But it's framed pretty here by sea oats.

I woke up this morning in Myrtle Beach and looked out the big wide open window at the sun beginning to rise over the ocean. Sweet. Just sat outside on the balcony and watched the sunrise slowly unfold before me. Okay, eventually I went downstairs with a cup of coffee and got my toes in the water and my feet in the sand or however that song goes and I smiled and thought "wow, life is good" and the beach will do that to me always. Not a hot blazing sun but a warm sun and a balmy breeze on the edge of cool as it's really May even though it feels more like late June in the Carolinas. What I love about a Carolina beach is it's different in it's own unique way as every beach is .... but watching a sunrise come up through the sea oats and watching them bend to the wind and the endless waves moving steadily onshore..... well it's different in Miami. But, you're not here to hear me rant on the sunrise....

And, what starts down in Florida may move up towards the Carolinas later in the week as the deep tropical moisture that brought tornadoes to WPB will be moving north sliding it's way over the length of Florida, into Georgia while grazing the Mobile Alabama area and then head up into the Appalachians with that moisture moving up towards the Carolinas. That's the pattern and for now it's pretty set in the sand ;)

For those looking for a fear factor or hurricane forecasting Fantasy Football style you can watch the "scary" long range run of the GFS. Let's see how well it does with the area that probably should be an Invest but is not yet an Invest as I type this morning's blog... before worrying on a Hurricane in a week or so coming up out of the Caribbean aiming at most of Florida. This Hurricane Season seems like a variation sequel to last year's hurricane season yet the aim at Florida may come from a different direction.

Ouch...

www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

I show this long range model that will change many times between here and there to mitigate it by reminding you of the reality that it will change much between now and there. There is some scary click bait going around social media on this possible named storm. What needs to be understood by these scary tropical scenarios that Floridians do not want to hear about..... you need to look at the High in the model link above. It's what I said the other day and it stays this way for while . . . for a long while. Anything that gets underneath it will follow the edge of the high and where anything makes landfall depends on the high on any given day.  Again look at this picture below but not at Jim Cantore in South Florida but the satellite image on the right. Note the curve of the clouds.... that's where this system is going to go in the short term. And, when I say "this system" I mean the one on the stage currently not the one waiting in the wings hiding in stealth mode down in the Caribbean

Up into Georgia and the Carolinas....

Moisture to end the drought.

Please read the previous blog post as it explains this two part scenario well.

There are 2 issues here:

1 is the disturbance near Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico we are currently watching that brought Jim down to South Florida.

2 is the area down in the Caribbean that is forecast by the various models to come together, shoot the Yucatan Channel and move up into the very warm waters of the Florida Straits and the SE Gulf of Mexico and form into some sort of named storm and move up over Florida. The current track takes it through the Keys and up over Florida as if it's a weaker Irma from a different direction. Tomorrow the models may take it straight up into the Panhandle and spare Miami and WPB. Who knows really? It's just a model and the one thing I can promise you about this hurricane season is the models will be wrong often.

Stay tuned.

It could be worse, you could be living in paradise with lava fissures opening up under your back patio and having it eat your mustang convertible along with the house and the neighbor's house spewing toxic gas. Life is better in Florida even if you have to wait and see which way the dice are going to roll out and if you do or don't get a tropical storm you can prepare for ...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me there for faster updates than here.

Ps.. I'll update this blog later today news permitting and depending on when I am or I am not in the water with or walking along the beach with my toes in the sand.