UPDATED 7 PM It Begins Early - 2019 Hurricane Season. Area of Interest. Code Yellow. Off South Florida in Bahamas. Florida Tropical Rains

7 PM Update

Will update if anything changes later.

Some May Tropical Storm History...

Andrea of 2007 formed near here.

It's a popular breeding ground for May and June systems.

So the question here Wednesday Evening is...

Why do we watch this early in May?

Because May storms do form and often in this region.

Subtropical Storm Andrea is an example.

Look how nicely formed Andrea was in 2007

Same name, different year.

Subtropical Storm formed on May 9th near Daytona Beach.

Andrea didn't last long, but it made it's mark on tropical history.

Originally it was a non tropical low then became subtropical.

Looking at other years you will see many A B C named storms...

..form early in these same breeding grounds.

2012 above show 1, 2, 3 and 4 all formed close in.

Check out 2015 below... 

Storm #1 starts where our disturbance is now.

So you can't count out some kind of development.

But the big weather news today is tornado warnings elsewhere.

That time of year.......

Now back to our Disturbance 1

It's holding it's own.

Staring at Florida.....

...but not really a threat.

A reminder that Hurricane Season is almost here!

Seems Andrea in 2007 found it's groove.

Jury is out on Disturbance 1.

More details below.

***

What? Still there at 0% 2 days and 20% in the 5 day.

Who? Where?

Just ESE of Miami - WPB area.

When might it develop? 3 to 5 days...

Down the road as it slides up along the coast.. 

... a cold front is moving towards it to pick it up.

(in theory...)

What can you do?

https://wsvn.com/weather/

My choice of info in South Florida.

Miami.........

Many good links to info on Spaghetti Models as well.

Learn and educate yourself about Hurricane Season.

Not for this Bahama Blob...

...but for the next one that cruises into those waters.

Or the one after that........

May and June usually mean weak systems.

(though not always)

July and August things really heat up.

September Remember.

Just think of the song...

I'll update later.

For now we are just all watching.

Oh the models........

(remember it's May and currently no real center)

Models show weather.

Weather kicking up it's heels.

Windy, wet day along the coast.

NAM shows something further up the coast...

Euro shows WEATHER concentrated around the same spot.

Here's the real area to watch.....

I'll update if anything pops up...

20% chance over 5 days time.

The longer it sits the longer it festers.

As we have talked about online this was expected.

Actual discussion from NHC

What does this really mean?

For now some Florida rain....

...maybe it will get gusty.

It means the pattern is in place and setting up.

Currently there is shear there....

but the longer it sits the better it gets.

It's had "that look" for days.

Increased moisture for Florida, GA & Coastal Carolinas.

The loop below shows heavy rain along the Florida East Coast.

The front moving down towards the disturbance.

Again the graphic below shows the area being watched.

Zero percent today.

So when it rains in Miami today...

...stay calm, enjoy the rain.

Look for it to slide up along the coast and maybe find a sweet spot.

If it has a chance at all it needs to find that sweet spot.

Somewhere between Ormond Beach and Wrightsville Beach...

...it could find a sweet spot with lower shear and better conditions.

Meanwhile it will rain in Miami and along the Florida East Coast.

Bahamas Blob (as Mike calls it) will make Bahamas messy.

This was not unexpected.

I tweeted this yesterday.

But what will happen tomorrow?

Remember though we are not 1 month away til Hurricane Season.

And Mother Nature doesn't always follow the rules.

I'll be back with a full update this evening.

This was yesterday.

Been watching this for days.

It's tenacity has been admirable.

It's easy to talk models ....

... it's too early.

Models this time of year spit out crazy solutions...

Well to be honest models often do...

What you need to know is something is there.

And it has a small chance of developing a bit.

We are officially tracking an an area of interest.

Yellow colored.

Might develop some.

Keep watching.

Check back soon....

And yes I bought my 2019 tee shirt.

No not the Donkey but maybe....

I like palm trees bending in the wind.

Have you bought yours?

Are you ready for the Hurricane Season?

I was in Miami for two weeks.

Trust me the heat is on...the water is warm.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for updates in real time.