UPDATED THURSDAY!! Tropical Waves Coming Off Africa... Flooding Summer Rain Closer to Home. Could Anything Develop? Officially NHC Says No But Lot's to Watch.

Quick late night update.......

Long link but go for it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-ntmicro-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

Remember those late night radio shows?

They'd talk on alien abductions and conspiracies?

My aunt used to listen to them after her husband died young.

Late night talk hosts talking on numerous things.

Kept her company alone in her empty room.

Sometimes it was politics.....

.......she'd turn off the alien abductions ;)

But seriously......

I sure hope the NHC doesn't have subtropical on their brain.

Oh wait is that an Alien?

Saturn like storm possibilities.

What could be out there.

Check that loop out.

Odd......more oddness.

For now everything is feeding into it.

Far to the right.....

See below.

Hoping this slides away and Barry is a real tropical storm.

Just my thoughts.

Keep reading.

Felt it was worth pointing out ....

As for the African Tropical Waves.......

.........they are becoming South America Waves Crashing on shore.

Making it across the Atlantic... low but low as they go they go.

Thursday Morning Update.

Strong African Tropical Waves Westbound still.....

South of the High.

Beneath the SAL

Moving towards South America and the Caribbean.

An updated version of the picture below.

Check out those waves they are making it across the pond.

Please read the blog below

And know......

Now is the time to prepare for Hurricane Season.

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Publix has a lot of good buy one get one free specials today.

Juices. Baby Wipes. 

Things you will need during hurricane season.

With strong waves such as these above...

...and stalled out fronts near North Florida....

You should be shopping now!

Making lists.

What do you need to do if a hurricane comes your way?

Or pops up off shore from a dead cold front?

I'll update later today about record heat and rain...

...and why this should concern you.

ciao for now...

be back later.

Please read if you have not done so already.

Thanks!

Today's post is regarding waves over Africa.

And much action close in that I'll discuss later.

There has been much discussion on early African Waves.

You can see our latest pair coming off today.

There is African Dust known as SAL to the North.

A huge high more discernible on Water Vapor Imagery.

What you also see in the above image is the shear from the Caribbean...

East bound towards the Atlantic.

So if there is shear and there's SAL why are we watching the wave?

Honestly it's a kick ass wave for any time of year.

And though it's too soon in June this June has felt more like Mid July.

It's not totally impossible for a wave to find a way to stay together.

It happens.

It happens rarely.

I was asked online if it's a a "frightening glimpse of things September has in store?" from a good writer and a long time online friend. I'd agree except that this June has been like July in many ways so I'd say it's a glimpse of what August may bring. Yes, we do exaggerate early waves (his words) but my response is two fold. 

There is always some wrench that crops up in the tropics regarding what seems to be perfect, positive conditions for tropical development. This time of year we have shear coming out of the entrance to the Caribbean that blows apart kick ass waves. We have a strong high that sometimes propels them too fast yet this year they have made it across the Atlantic and washed up onto the shores of South America still noticeably held together enough to have been able to track a wave's progress the whole trip from Africa. This is something we do and something we enjoy tremendously this time of year and when you get bonus waves so well formed and nicely spaced apart it's more enjoyable. Especially enjoyable knowing nothing is going to slam into the Islands protected by the Shear Zone and the water is not warm enough to support real formation so it's just a fun thing to do and on some level yes it shows how patterns are developing.  The reason nicely spaced waves is important is that some years they come off too close together and rob each other of moisture competing for supremacy and they all equally lose and have problems developing. The well spaced waves are more prone to each have their own zone, their pocket to develop in if the other conditions are favorable. And, how they look early in the season is usually how they look and come off in another month down the road closer to East Atlantic development as they roll off of Africa over a beach in Senegal with a low pressure system attached. Again that is what it means to watch the patterns.

So we are wave watching. What I am also watching is the consistent, persistent congregation of moisture off the SE coast on both sides of Florida and close to Georgia as fronts keep on coming and then falling apart into a stationary front and linger too long with nothing to push them out to sea totally. The water off the Florida peninsular is warm and along areas of the Georgia and Carolina coasts it's warming up fast. Sometimes things "pop up" as I wrote in my previous blog.

Note that blob of rain that moved from GA to SC.

And now is off shore.

Every day Miami is getting slammed with storms.

And check out the mess that came off of Texas.

These are your usual regions to watch in mid June.

I'm watching.

But right now they are all just clouds.

Clouds and convection.

Blasts of shear shooting across the ocean.

Moisture in motion.

Note yesterday.........

Up to 7½" of rain and flash flooding in south #gawx from this circulating cluster of nearly stationary regenerating thunderstorms pic.twitter.com/gxYpVSJHDB

— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) June 12, 2019

Massive rain training over the same area.

Stationary...

...then it moved up over South Carolina.

Part of it is off the coast.

Part is moving towards North Carolina.

It's a messy time of year.

Hopefully just rain and summer storms.

But sometimes tropical storms can form....

... from waves that make it past the dust...

...when shear relaxes on any given day...

Not expecting much but it's a good loop to use

If you want to watch tropical waves.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/wavetrakmain.php?&prod=wind&basin=natl&time

Just don't expect anything to develop.

Yet always leave the door for more.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Let's hope we just see summer rain.

But not so much rain that it floods.

All summer long we watch waves.

Some years the calendar doesn't connect to reality.

Put "summer rain" into a YouTube search and...

...came up with this one.

So going with it.

UPDATED 7 PM It Begins Early - 2019 Hurricane Season. Area of Interest. Code Yellow. Off South Florida in Bahamas. Florida Tropical Rains

7 PM Update

Will update if anything changes later.

Some May Tropical Storm History...

Andrea of 2007 formed near here.

It's a popular breeding ground for May and June systems.

So the question here Wednesday Evening is...

Why do we watch this early in May?

Because May storms do form and often in this region.

Subtropical Storm Andrea is an example.

Look how nicely formed Andrea was in 2007

Same name, different year.

Subtropical Storm formed on May 9th near Daytona Beach.

Andrea didn't last long, but it made it's mark on tropical history.

Originally it was a non tropical low then became subtropical.

Looking at other years you will see many A B C named storms...

..form early in these same breeding grounds.

2012 above show 1, 2, 3 and 4 all formed close in.

Check out 2015 below... 

Storm #1 starts where our disturbance is now.

So you can't count out some kind of development.

But the big weather news today is tornado warnings elsewhere.

That time of year.......

Now back to our Disturbance 1

It's holding it's own.

Staring at Florida.....

...but not really a threat.

A reminder that Hurricane Season is almost here!

Seems Andrea in 2007 found it's groove.

Jury is out on Disturbance 1.

More details below.

***

What? Still there at 0% 2 days and 20% in the 5 day.

Who? Where?

Just ESE of Miami - WPB area.

When might it develop? 3 to 5 days...

Down the road as it slides up along the coast.. 

... a cold front is moving towards it to pick it up.

(in theory...)

What can you do?

https://wsvn.com/weather/

My choice of info in South Florida.

Miami.........

Many good links to info on Spaghetti Models as well.

Learn and educate yourself about Hurricane Season.

Not for this Bahama Blob...

...but for the next one that cruises into those waters.

Or the one after that........

May and June usually mean weak systems.

(though not always)

July and August things really heat up.

September Remember.

Just think of the song...

I'll update later.

For now we are just all watching.

Oh the models........

(remember it's May and currently no real center)

Models show weather.

Weather kicking up it's heels.

Windy, wet day along the coast.

NAM shows something further up the coast...

Euro shows WEATHER concentrated around the same spot.

Here's the real area to watch.....

I'll update if anything pops up...

20% chance over 5 days time.

The longer it sits the longer it festers.

As we have talked about online this was expected.

Actual discussion from NHC

What does this really mean?

For now some Florida rain....

...maybe it will get gusty.

It means the pattern is in place and setting up.

Currently there is shear there....

but the longer it sits the better it gets.

It's had "that look" for days.

Increased moisture for Florida, GA & Coastal Carolinas.

The loop below shows heavy rain along the Florida East Coast.

The front moving down towards the disturbance.

Again the graphic below shows the area being watched.

Zero percent today.

So when it rains in Miami today...

...stay calm, enjoy the rain.

Look for it to slide up along the coast and maybe find a sweet spot.

If it has a chance at all it needs to find that sweet spot.

Somewhere between Ormond Beach and Wrightsville Beach...

...it could find a sweet spot with lower shear and better conditions.

Meanwhile it will rain in Miami and along the Florida East Coast.

Bahamas Blob (as Mike calls it) will make Bahamas messy.

This was not unexpected.

I tweeted this yesterday.

But what will happen tomorrow?

Remember though we are not 1 month away til Hurricane Season.

And Mother Nature doesn't always follow the rules.

I'll be back with a full update this evening.

This was yesterday.

Been watching this for days.

It's tenacity has been admirable.

It's easy to talk models ....

... it's too early.

Models this time of year spit out crazy solutions...

Well to be honest models often do...

What you need to know is something is there.

And it has a small chance of developing a bit.

We are officially tracking an an area of interest.

Yellow colored.

Might develop some.

Keep watching.

Check back soon....

And yes I bought my 2019 tee shirt.

No not the Donkey but maybe....

I like palm trees bending in the wind.

Have you bought yours?

Are you ready for the Hurricane Season?

I was in Miami for two weeks.

Trust me the heat is on...the water is warm.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for updates in real time.

Travel Trouble. Tornado Warnings Now Florida. Give Back to Those Who Give You So Much Weather Info... Spread the Holiday Cheer and Charity.

The over advertised storm system that was forecast to swing through Florida is delivering the punch it was expected to pack and more. I woke up this morning to three different tornado warnings as the trouble began early today. Any travel from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona should be done with extreme caution and that basically means the I-40 and most of the Turnpike is currently cloaked in wicked weather. In the old days we used to call this an "E" ride at Disney weatherwise today but if that went whoosh over your head just know it will be a continuing mess until this clears the state later tonight. And, it will clear the state so you can keep those boots and sherpa jackets handy. The drama continues up the coast as the front continues to push across the general I-95 area. A crappy day to travel and a good day to stay on top of the weather in your local area. The best way to stay on top of the weather is to check your local NWS office.

https://www.weather.gov/

Put your cityin and find your exact info.

The map below is from that site.

You can see if you are driving ...

..from Miami to NY today.

You might want to wait a day if you can.

Travel is going to be a big mess.

Florida is dressed in Red for the Holidays.

Mike living on the West Coast gets it first.

Radar grabs are all the same.

Only the colors will change during the day.

With the heating of the day it gets worse.

This is a strong front.

Look at that front go through.

Check out those watches and warnings.

My brother is already at the beach....

Taking pictures.

He's a good photographer.

Photography runs in the family.

I had a Great Uncle who was....

..a photographer for the Ziegfeld Follies!

More to that story but staying focused here.

If you live in Florida PLEASE take this seriously.

And this is the set up for the Winter of 2018.

So far anyway.

The last one swung through.

This one will too.

There will be more.

As the weather pushes through GA...

South and North Carolina.

There are chances to see tornadoes..

..and wicked weather.

But that's for tomorrow...

Today it's mostly about Florida.

Carolinas will see a rainy day.

The severe weather threat is for Thursday.

This is what we call Apocalypse Weather.

Usually we see it in May and June.

Monsoons Gone Crazy.

But this Winter is a real Winter.

And Cold Fronts are on the move.

Watch your radars.

Pay attention to your Apps.

Don't say I didn't warn ya..

Everyone warned you...

The "hype" was a warning not "hype"

Weather evolves.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps A big PS here in that there are those online who work hard to bring you fast, timely weather warnings and information. In this time of GIVING make sure you GIVE and show your thanks. Mike for example provides information in a entertaining way yet he never takes his eye off the approaching weather. He may lose his umbrella in a tornado but he gives his all throughout the Hurricane Season and keeps chugging along throughout the year. Others such as Rob from Crown Weather has a paid for view service and he's almost always on the money so he's well worth the money if you live in an area and have weather concerns that go beyond waiting to see if TWC talks about it in real time. If you have problems separating the hype from the danger he is worth the money... and he has another site for New England. If you have a site and it has a button feel free to send them some holiday cheer. It's always good to know that people appreciate the work you put in.

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

https://dabuh.com/

www.crownweather.com

https://www.route20weather.com/  Western & Central Massachusetts 

Description

Description

As for me I don't have a button but until 12:59 PM this site is active, my grandchildren go there and it's one of the best schools I know in one of the most beautiful places in the world. The children are taught in a way to bring out their own individuality and at least in my family I know that's a good thing as they are creative, bright and real individuals. They have a special fundraiser going on that quadruples every donation so for every dollar you donate you are actually giving four dollars. Can't get that much bang out of your buck when you donate and it's better than most the website sales of the day. So while shopping.... give a little cheer, give a little charity, be a part of the change in the world you want to see. If you do give... feel free to tell them BobbiStorm sent you :) That could be your gift to me for the holidays! They are always a good place to give to, high up on my list of charities and incredible schools.

https://www.charidy.com/MJM?fbclid=IwAR0PIRLuIfdJweN3Dc0tsR_CMeu8KN3OnHy2CPpSw1ITXMWJoChbWq9CLIM

Mike makes jokes but there is often a kernel of real truth in what he says. I thought on this jokingly the day before to myself. The "dipping low pressure areas" that are the reason for this season of Severe Weather in December....  There have been so many of these systems shown on modeling I was wondering if TWC was going to give them a special name. Mike went out on that limb but the point is this is not a one time set up, we will continue to get them for a while this winter and at some point deeper into January the pattern changes, the Polar Vortex does it's part but the Southern Jet being enhanced by the nameless El Nino will be pumping up the South and filling it with wet weather until that lazy ole Polar Vortex Does it's thing.