Hurricane Harbor

Sunday, March 03, 2019

UPDATED! Tornadoes in the South - Snow Storms - Winter Storms - Snow Threatens Peach Trees Hit by Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas. Women in Meteorology.

Our power lines are under these two massive trees... debris is basically everywhere. Sirensare still blaring everywhere. The cliche of it sounds like a freight train coming is no joke. #tornado pic.twitter.com/lXJZX6Lrsz
— Scott Fillmer (@scottfillmer) March 3, 2019

http://www.wsfa.com/2019/03/03/fatalities-reported-after-tornadoes-hit-lee-county/

Good video close up of storms exploding on this loop.

1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector #GOES16 Visible images + SPC storm reports over #ALwx and #GAwx: https://t.co/TTGPNo3pT1 pic.twitter.com/C4IsKceLTs
— Scott Bachmeier (@CIMSS_Satellite) March 3, 2019

The death toll could climb as they are still looking for people who are missing and going through the debris. This evening is far from over as for wicked weather and even more wicked cold will arrive later this week. I've said it over and over because the pattern seems to be stuck and severe weather keeps training over the same area in the Florida Panhandle that was slammed by Hurricane Michael up into areas that flooded from Florence. This does not bode well for early season development this hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE coast when Subtropicals are prone to form close to the coast. Just saying it's something to remember.

I've been following on Twitter all afternoon.

Out shopping, raining but not heavy.

But the heavy weather is on the way.

Currently down in the Deep South.

The same area affected by Hurricanes Michael and Florence...

That flash of color is the latest lightning data.

It should move into NC later tonight.

NC is prone to night time tornadoes.

Stay tuned and pay attention to your Weather Apps

Any watches or warnings take seriously!

Wild action tonight.

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30

Mother Nature is kicking off Tornado Season in the South today!

Mother Nature isn't taking any prisoners tonight.

Cell phone towers down.

Saloons ripped apart.

From the Twitter feed on SpaghettiModels

Showing this as it's a great place to go to get instant weather news.

If you aren't on Twitter and are old school...

...it's a great resource.

This is as typical as it gets when Spring comes early.

And then Winter sneaks back in...

Cold diving air mixing with warm humid air.

Bamn! Twisters form.

look at that flow of moisture...

Gulf of Mexico Moisture.

Keep reading.

I'll update later in real time.

* * *

I posted this picture on February 17th....

... a beautiful pink array of blossoms on a nearby tree.

Below is out my window this morning.

Note the gray, white skies are a constant.

The maple tree has new baby red leaves on it.

Signs of Spring but it feels like Winter.

Where we are today with regard to weather.

Winter Weather to be exact!

Note how low the snow dips down into Arkansas.

All sliding East.

And there's another system behind it!

A lot of weather warnings there.

Red alert day for many places.

Being honest here, trying to watch national weather is at times hard when you are between seasons in the Carolinas and only really want to know one or two things.

What time is it going to start to rain today?
Is there any chance for snow flakes on the tail end of the next system?

Extra Credit: Is this going to mess up the fruit trees that started to bloom already?

Cantore brought it up also on TWC.

It's worth remembering those trees will be wet from rain.

Then cold, cold temperatures blow in on a strong wind.

Perhaps there is even a chance of a drop of snow?

Who knows?

Mother Nature seems to work in real time this year.

GFS may be beating the EURO with this one.

The local weather people have been talking on this or more so worrying on this as a possibility. Trees they be a blooming. My maple tree is unfurling it's leaves inch by inch, day by day, still in the red mode and it always amazes me it turns bright green eventually; kind of like those blonde hair little boys I had whose hair turned almost black as they got in their twenties.

Wednesday morning we have a forecast low of 21 and that's going to take a bite out of some of those early blooming trees. When people plant early and are told it's too soon they were warned. But the blooming of trees early after warm weather is something that cannot be controlled and it has happened this year after a very warm February and now with a cold March coming into areas already hit hard by Hurricane Florence may be hit again by Mother Nature on the rampage with freezing temperatures hurting the peach crop. It's not just the peace crop but areas under the gun for severe weather today and freezing temperatures this week are in peach country.

Again it's not all about whether New York City gets snow or if Boston is snow satisfied ... it's a big country we live in and every place has their own wishes for the weather they want and concerns they will get the weather they don't want. My daughter wants the snow to stop and for things to warm up however moving up to Pomona Heights area vs living down in Bayswater on the water has changed her weather watching from watching the high tides that flooded her street to "how much snow am I getting?" and this girl has been watching weather for years and years. So obviously I watch her and whoever she likes weather wise... https://www.instagram.com/dinadeehoops/

So Dina said I have to follow Amy Freeze...

...so I did as Dina knows weather.

No we cannot cancel the weather.

The EURO may lose to the GFS.

This may get interesting.

(Wow some huge bird just flew past my window..

...it was white and huge, hold on.

remember to wear coat when going outside...)

Good link to Bernie Rayno on models and forecasts.

Frustration and honesty.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1PlKQyNlWZNKE

Oddly I have not spoken to Cranky this morning.

And yet he's tweeting on what I'm thinking about.

So who is this incredible woman below?

This is a must read article about a woman who went into meteorology early on and had to balance family needs and her own need for a degree in meteorology. Motherhood is wonderful, really, but it ends up always being a balancing act trying to be a good mother and following your own dreams. Women like her rarely get movies made about them and rarely does anyone hear about them but they were brave, stubborn and followed their dreams. We should hear more about them.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/the-untold-story-of-june-bacon-bercey-the-first-american-women-to-become-a-tv-meteorologist/70007375

My daughter Dina who I've mentioned watches different women meteorologists I rarely hear about and she of course watches them on Instagram. My daughter had dyslexia when young that she did overcome and eventually attained a Bachelors Degree from Touro University with her younger sister back in 2012. They are both awesome, but no teacher in elementary school or middle school ever expected Dina to go to college let alone graduate and she did so with great grades. She had a dream, but more so she had a goal and she didn't give up. How many people reading this have a dream but don't even try pursuing it or make only lists of reasons they could never do that? I never broke her spirit for good or bad. She dropped out of high school in the 9th grade and went to work for the principal's wife as a teacher's aid in her preschool. She traveled the world, the country to music festivals and went to Venice on her 25th birthday with her best friend because she wanted to.... and she went back to college after getting an online high school degree because her mother (me) begged her to and I may have tricked her into it but hey she's got a diploma! To be honest I thought she'd switch schools and maybe go to Art School, but no she stayed with college studying psychology and art getting one of the first degrees from Touro with an emphasis on multi-media art. My kids, all of them, always inspire me and trying to explain how during the quiet off season when no tropical waves are rolling across the Atlantic and forecast to get a name and become hurricanes. Welcome to my "off season" here...

And because I did follow Amy Freeze

In a serendipity kind of way I learned more today.

What a story.

I cannot believe anyone birthed 16 children.

And I've birthed many so for me to be shocked...

...and yet despite the large family she kept going.

What a story really.

Please follow Amy Freeze.

My daughter Dina is right indeed.

Down in Carolina watching snow forecasts for up the coast.

How close will it get.

I said the other day I expect Roxboro will get snow flakes.

Watching the models and the loops.

Women can do anything.

I bought my granddaughter Olivia a tee shirt that says that.

But mothers have to work twice as hard at least.

Life is balance in ways.

I'm sure it's hard for men too...

But they don't have to go to college ...

with a baby kicking in their tummy.

Men don't have to fight off morning sickness...

...men don't have to deal with postpartum depression.

Another weather person Dina loves below.

And I saw this today about a young woman...

...following her dream.

Happy to he the "weekend meteorologist" in Panama City.

Panama City got Hurricane Michael.

It also got rain all winter.

Wondering on what this hurricane season will bring.

Someone to follow as she follows her dream.

https://twitter.com/BrittneyBwx

What's my dream?

Oh I keep my dreams and secrets private.

Maybe I'll spend this week reviewing my dreams.

What are your dreams?

Take care, be happy and be wise.

Choose wisely and never give up.

Or as Reed Timmer says never stop chasing.

I'll add never stop doing ....

dreaming is good but doing is better ;)

Looks like Brittney is going to busy this Sunday.

Besos BobbiStorm

Still have tropical dreams.....

but wish I could see some snow flakes!

Ps... For my gal Sue :) who taught me to ... go to the beach talk to the waves.

To suspend reality and just be silly.

To be strong, tough and do what you got to do...

Labels: college, countrymusic, daughters, dreams, EURO, forecasts, GFS, meteorologists, meteorology, snow, spring, Touro, weather, winter, women

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Friday Third Look at Snow Storms and Weather and a Cold, Cold Start to March.

Went out last night for drinks with friends.

Whiskey Kitchen in Downtown Raleigh.

The Capital of North Carolina.

Filled with big beautiful public squares.

And in the spring they burst forth with color.

Beneath the Oaks in the City of Oaks.

At dusk it was almost warm.

But the forecast as 22 on Wednesday.

Which season is it already?

Woke up this morning and it's March...

...go figure.

March 5th is Fat Tuesday.

March 26th is Purim.

Busy month.

Make the calendar your own :)

Happy March!
Yes that means 3 months til the Hurricane Season.
For some it's considered Spring today.
Meteorological Spring begins March 1st :)
Why you ask?

https://t.co/yVDNv9jEUP
— Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013) March 1, 2019

So you can decide if you go with today...
...or wait til the Spring Equinox.

We're still waiting on the real winter storm to stand up.
This is an older tweet but I love it.
Because it's kind of how I feel as well.

Trends: A story of love, hate, and misunderstanding pic.twitter.com/Bc2C7gsK9a
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) March 1, 2019

Check back later this afternoon.
I'll talk on this weekend's storm.
And what will be will be with the next.

I'm still holding with Roxboro gets snow.
Doubtful on Raleigh.
A sliver of a chance it doesn't rain this Saturday here.
Sunday shows thunder.
Do I count ten days because it's winter?
Or go with March 1st being Spring?

Check back later.
Til then.... much here to think on.
And still relevant.

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

Posting this image from yesterday's blog.

It shows a messy mix of systems trying to come together.

Models have been doing the two step.

An old Virginia Reel ....

Did you ever have to learn this in school?

I did.

If only Mother Nature would come together like this.

But they they kind of then they move back.

Mother Nature doesn't want to dance this year.

She's doing her own thing.

Bi Polar personality maybe?

Or 2 Faces of Mother Nature.

Northern Jet Stream.

Southern Jet Stream.

Will these two ever hook up again for a winter storm?

Not likely but possible.

DaBuh shows these possibilities here above.

Who do you believe?

Whether it's the hurricane season or winter....

... The EURO and the GFS can't agree on the weather.

It's like that dance above.

We take a few steps to come together and then...

... things fall apart and we slide away.

Move on down the line.

EURO says NO.

GFS promises YES.

When you love the weather there are always consequences and moodiness sets in if the snow storm gets yanked away by the Yankees and Southerners dream of one last chance to see snow flurries flying about. Boring weather is boring for weather people. We all have those memories we love to remember and wish we could get a set up like that again. A few thunderbolts that came down fast nearby frightening us out of the pool and running for cover. A day when tornadoes were predicted and hit nearby and the sky turned more colors than Jacob's coat of many colors but they were all turbulent and in motion as they raced across the sky to a touchdown nearby just beyond the horizon. Standing on the protected porch with my brother watching things flying down the street.... roof shingles, branches, small trees in what was not a strong breeze but a real hurricane. Santa Ana winds in California snapping electric wires, starting fires and killing the flowers in the garden as if a dragon just exhaled with his dangerous breath as LA was melting under it's relentless presence. Weather memories dance in our heads the way scenes from Twister make us laugh and we love songs that talk about the weather. Loving weather has consequences.

Loving weather has consequences.

For many of us it's the first thing we remember loving.

Staring out the windows at a hurricane blowing.

Palm trees bent over swaying in the wind.

Hanging out on the porch in a thunderstorm.

Playing in our first snow fall.

Seeing our first snow falling.

Seeing the trunk of a Twister forming in dark clouds...

... wondering where it will touch down.

We are stuck at the end of winter....

...with wicked cold about to descend.

And yet only promises of rain....

Even though we dream of snow falling.

Weather people don't play it safe.

I'll tell you that.

See when you film a video for a song named Perfect..

...you put snow into the video.

It makes everything more perfect.

In some places weather is happening.

The Tar River in NC is flirting with flood levels.

NC has had way too much rain this year.

Hurricanes and Winter Storms that brought cold, cold rain.

And rivers that flow downstream and well..

..Spring brings River Flooding doesn't it?

California also having problems with flooding.

Beautiful Sonoma County is washing away.

And in places like Canada......

......they have ice and snow.

Pulaski NY has snow and ice.

Up in those parts they are so over winter.

One of my daughters lives in upstate NY.

Some of her hoops have ice on them.

She has a lot of hoops.

Can't keep them all in the house.

Snow everywhere.

And I know she's dreaming of summer.

Blue skies and bright clothes.

Fountains and rainbows.

And hooping in the sunshine.

https://www.instagram.com/dinadeehoops/

In Florida and California where she grew up...

.... life was a different story.

In Miami winter is pretty much over.

Mango Season has taken over.

Mangos are so tasty.

The heavy scent of their blossoms baking in the sun is not.

The scent is musky and heavy and gives me headaches.

But oh the mangos are so delicious.

I had mangoes in a salad in Myrtle Beach.

A Key West salad.

Mangoes and Hearts of Palm.

Anyway.... maybe I'll get some snow flakes.

Not holding my breath.

They take the snowflakes out of the forecast.

They put in a wintry mix.

They take it out.

It's a dance weather people do...

...until a day or two before it comes through.

And then we will see what we will see.

I hope to see some snow.

If only wishes came true...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter.

Ps... Weather memories are forever.

Somewhere an old woman stares out the window of a Rest Home at snow falling.

And on the front porch an old man sits in a rocker watching the sky and wondering....

... if it will snow or rain and we are as we were when we were little kids. Looking out

the window and watching the weather. I've danced in rainstorms. I've stood on beaches

getting slammed by tropical winds in nameless hurricanes that all blur together.

I don't want to watch a movie about the snow I want to walk in it and feel it

and see it falling before we race ahead into the hurricane season which is coming soon.

Stay tuned.

Labels: EURO, floods, GFS, hooping, ice, life, love, march, memories, music, rain, SantaAna, snow, songs, spring, summer, thunderstorms, twisters, weather, wind

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

CAT 3 MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE Newest Models Show A Possible East Coast Landfall Threat...

All the links for the models are here.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Links top left

Okay I'm going to just do this in real time.

While writing the discussion below....

...when I was about to finish and hit "post"

The NHC at 8:35 released the statement above.

It was obvious this morning that FLO was a Cat 3.

As I explain below.

I'm not changing the discussion.

I'll write a post on models for FLO soon.

You can even see that from far away.

And up close.

Really perfection.

See the logic.

Read about the models........

........the models showing an East Coast Landfall.

Remember a Cat 3 can sometimes make it's own steering currents. The new intensity of Florence will have to be figured in to the next model run. So WARNING ...when you see images like this for a landfalling Hurricane Florence take them with many grains of salt. KNOW it CAN happen but it also most likely won't happen as models rarely are accurate that far out. What they do show us is a pattern........... a trend..... and when we get within the five day if we see an East Coast landfall we will take them more seriously. Usually the best place to be is where a long term model makes landfall as it will change and slide up to Wilmington (a popular landfall destination) and the Outer Banks and Virginia maybe and some models will show it veering away from the coast after driving us nuts. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE WHAT IT WILL DO. The NHC can't even keep up with it's rapid intensification so.... let's all breathe and take it slow and appreciate it's beauty and admire it's tenacity while it's far out in the ocean not immediately threatening anyone.

New discussion here... Full update around Noon.

12 hours ago above.

NOW below

Note FlO is size wise not huge.

Compact, intense.

Stubborn, tenacious.

Over achiever.

In remnants of SAL.... dry air.

LOW WATER TEMPS..

She intensified to Cat 3

Encapsulated by SAL...

...but didn't inhibit rapid intensification.

You have to worry on hurricanes like this.

Long link below.

Great link to play with.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-atlantic-08-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined Watch the top of the loop, where the flow comes and shows what may or may not happen. You can also see the moisture I spoke about yesterday filling up the Atlantic moistening up the High Pressure sort of fade away and the high gets stronger again. So that theory didn't pan out... Yes strong major hurricanes do tend to want to pull North but the problem with major hurricanes is that they tend to build a high pressure of their own aloft and carry it with them. So basically a strong Major Hurricane can make it's own steering currents vs going with the flow.. flow not FLO. Andrew and Georges are good examples of this as Georges was forecast by the NHC to make a turn to the North before the Virgin Islands and then before PR and then before Hispaniola not turning until he did ignoring all the normal logic for what it would do. And that is the problem with a Major Hurricane they are hard to second guess especially when they were forecast to struggle and they exploded. The question remains why did it explode? Why was the forecast so off? Why did it not become a Fish Storm? Why did it not fall apart with dust and shear and dry air over low water temperatures.

AGAIN lastly Florence is just NOW about to reach really warm water. So it can intensify further

easily.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#06L

Okay let's do this and I'll update later today after the 11 AM advisory on Hurricane Florence (our real concern now) and Gordon made landfall as a strong Tropical Storm along the Mississippi/Alabama border. More on Gordon later, but it is worth noting a death was recorded in the Florida Panhandle when a large tree fell on a trailer and a child died. So easy for people to laugh off "just a tropical storm" but even strong tropical storms bring deadly consequences. Large hurricanes bring numerous types of consequences and the models show many possible solutions though most of them are getting closer to showing landfall options for Florence so this is what we are talking about today. There is also Invest 92L that may stay lower and get into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico unless Florence and the wave behind 92L impact the current modeling for that one. Behind "that one" is a huge wave that exited Africa and that is the wave that many meteorologists have been waiting for as it's sheer size is compelling.

This is Florence.

Looks like a Cat 2 going Cat 3

Note the roundness of the bulk.

Cat 2s are more photogenic.

Lots of banding.

Cat 3s bulk up.

Round buzz saw shape.

What's that down to the right up above?

Big large wave down there......

Current track from NRL for Florence.

Bermuda in the cross hairs for now.

Officially shows up in the wind probs.

Last night the NHC (Eric Blake in particular) wrote an excellent discussion outlining the problems the NHC has had (that I have mentioned) with their intensity forecasts for Florence. It is good to be conservative, I agree totally, but they were a bit too conservative and for good reasons. But watching the Water Vapor Loop yesterday and the day before it was apparent Florence was flirting with hurricane strength. Her flirtation became a fascination as she intensified rapidly despite optimal conditions into a 105 MPH hurricane this morning. Officially she is a Category 2 but I would not be surprised to see her become a Cat 3 Major Hurricane later today. Note that is NOT in the official forecast, I am just giving my thoughts.

Why I said it was such an excellent discussion is that the NHC laid out an honest appraisal of the situation as it was and admitted that she exceeded expectations without a lot of defensive discussion that sometimes they are known to do when a hurricane out performs or under performs the official forecast. A very honest "It is what it is" and this is how we got here and mentioning uncertainty with regard to changes in the next few forecasts if necessary and while explaining the contradictory conditions it is expecting and yet ignoring at the same time.