CAT 3 MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE Newest Models Show A Possible East Coast Landfall Threat...

All the links for the models are here.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Links top left

Okay I'm going to just do this in real time.

While writing the discussion below....

...when I was about to finish and hit "post"

The NHC at 8:35 released the statement above.

It was obvious this morning that FLO was a Cat 3.

As I explain below.

I'm not changing the discussion.

I'll write a post on models for FLO soon.

You can even see that from far away.

And up close.

Really perfection.

Continue reading.

See the logic.

Read about the models........

........the models showing an East Coast Landfall.

Remember a Cat 3 can sometimes make it's own steering currents. The new intensity of Florence will have to be figured in to the next model run. So WARNING ...when you see images like this for a landfalling Hurricane Florence take them with many grains of salt. KNOW it CAN happen but it also most likely won't happen as models rarely are accurate that far out. What they do show us is a pattern........... a trend..... and when we get within the five day if we see an East Coast landfall we will take them more seriously. Usually the best place to be is where a long term model makes landfall as it will change and slide up to Wilmington (a popular landfall destination) and the Outer Banks and Virginia maybe and some models will show it veering away from the coast after driving us nuts. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE WHAT IT WILL DO. The NHC can't even keep up with it's rapid intensification so.... let's all breathe and take it slow and appreciate it's beauty and admire it's tenacity while it's far out in the ocean not immediately threatening anyone.

New discussion here...  Full update around Noon.

12 hours ago above.

NOW below

Note FlO is size wise not huge.

Compact, intense.

Stubborn, tenacious.

Over achiever.

In remnants of SAL.... dry air.

LOW WATER TEMPS..

She intensified to Cat 3

Encapsulated by SAL...

...but didn't inhibit rapid intensification.

You have to worry on hurricanes like this.

Long link below.

Great link to play with.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-atlantic-08-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined Watch the top of the loop, where the flow comes and shows what may or may not happen. You can also see the moisture I spoke about yesterday filling up the Atlantic moistening up the High Pressure sort of fade away and the high gets stronger again. So that theory didn't pan out... Yes strong major hurricanes do tend to want to pull North but the problem with major hurricanes is that they tend to build a high pressure of their own aloft and carry it with them. So basically a strong Major Hurricane can make it's own steering currents vs going with the flow.. flow not FLO. Andrew and Georges are good examples of this as Georges was forecast by the NHC to make a turn to the North before the Virgin Islands and then before PR and then before Hispaniola not turning until he did ignoring all the normal logic for what it would do. And that is the problem with a Major Hurricane they are hard to second guess especially when they were forecast to struggle and they exploded. The question remains why did it explode? Why was the forecast so off? Why did it not become a Fish Storm? Why did it not fall apart with dust and shear and dry air over low water temperatures.

AGAIN lastly Florence is just NOW about to reach really warm water. So it can intensify further 

easily.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#06L

Okay let's do this and I'll update later today after the 11 AM advisory on Hurricane Florence (our real concern now) and Gordon made landfall as a strong Tropical Storm along the Mississippi/Alabama border. More on Gordon later, but it is worth noting a death was recorded in the Florida Panhandle when a large tree fell on a trailer and a child died. So easy for people to laugh off "just a tropical storm" but even strong tropical storms bring deadly consequences. Large hurricanes bring numerous types of consequences and the models show many possible solutions though most of them are getting closer to showing landfall options for Florence so this is what we are talking about today. There is also Invest 92L that may stay lower and get into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico unless Florence and the wave behind 92L impact the current modeling for that one. Behind "that one" is a huge wave that exited Africa and that is the wave that many meteorologists have been waiting for as it's sheer size is compelling.

This is Florence.

Looks like a Cat 2 going Cat 3

Note the roundness of the bulk.

Cat 2s are more photogenic.

Lots of banding.

Cat 3s bulk up.

Round buzz saw shape.

What's that down to the right up above?

Big large wave down there......

Current track from NRL for Florence.

Bermuda in the cross hairs for now.

Officially shows up in the wind probs.

Last night the NHC (Eric Blake in particular) wrote an excellent discussion outlining the problems the NHC has had (that I have mentioned) with their intensity forecasts for Florence. It is good to be conservative, I agree totally, but they were a bit too conservative and for good reasons. But watching the Water Vapor Loop yesterday and the day before it was apparent Florence was flirting with hurricane strength. Her flirtation became a fascination as she intensified rapidly despite optimal conditions into a 105 MPH hurricane this morning. Officially she is a Category 2 but I would not be surprised to see her become a Cat 3 Major Hurricane later today. Note that is NOT in the official forecast, I am just giving my thoughts.

Why I said it was such an excellent discussion is that the NHC laid out an honest appraisal of the situation as it was and admitted that she exceeded expectations without a lot of defensive discussion that sometimes they are known to do when a hurricane out performs or under performs the official forecast. A very honest "It is what it is" and this is how we got here and mentioning uncertainty with regard to changes in the next few forecasts if necessary and while explaining the contradictory conditions it is expecting and yet ignoring at the same time.

So far Florence keeps plowing WNW.

Into dry air.

Into remnants of SAL.

And now shear is thrown into the mix.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al06/al062018.discus.023.shtml? You can read last night's discussion there and this morning's discussion below.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/050848.shtml

So this is my warning for today.

Understand this is more than a week away.

There is a plethora of images on Twitter...

..and other social media today.

All showing East Coast Landfall Maps for Flo.

And it's possible that's how it can go.

Can a hurricane do that?

Of course it can.

And it has in the past.

As seen below.

I mentioned the Chesapeake hurricane of 1933 last night.

Below is a good image of it up close.

I'll explain the JEBI reference later today.

Yes a hurricane can do that.

Hurricanes also do odd things as shown below.

www.crownweather.com

In fact 2 different hurricanes did that track.

And hurricanes have looped eternally off the East Coast.

Sometimes they loop and make landfall.

Sometimes they loop and skirt away.

They can go in any direction...

..if the steering currents get wonky enough.

Beautiful picture below.

Beautiful wide eye.

Yes you will see this online.

Yes it could happen.

Odds are it won't.

But odds are moving in favor of a threat to the East Coast.

And not to forget about Bermuda.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter

PS ...updating soon with exact model information.