Tropical Storm Gordon Set to Make Landfall. Tropical Storm Florence Still Cruising WNW. Is Helene in the Wings? Up to 70% Red Invest 92L

Color view below:

This is Tropical Storm Gordon.

You can see the brighter white....

...kind of it's core.

But remember there is weather across a wide area.

Real winds in a small area.

Rainfall across a wider area.

What also concerns me is where the rain goes later.

Far to the North ....

Have watch that.

The lead area with the white area is the core...

..the fast moving core.

The rest is the strong punch of gusty winds.

Not your classic looking Tropical Storm.

While searching for the right words to describe Tropical Storm Gordon I hear Jim Cantore say "convective blob" and I smiled. Yes, that pretty much describes Gordon today. It is a right sided "convective blob" carrying strong weather and winds higher than it's satellite appearance would lead us to believe.   Gulf of Mexico storms in that region in particular are prone to being right sided, lop sided and yet they carry a wicked punch at the beach and then move inland across a region filled with tall coastal pines that snap in strong tropical winds. When tall pines snap they crash down onto people's homes and disrupt their lives; sometimes falling pines can take lives. Palms are really more tropical friendly than pines and oaks.

Gordon is what Gordon is and it is possible that the main convective blob will intensify upon landfall as many similar tropical storms have done and once again come out of stealth mode and slam those Gulf of Mexico coastal beaches with the same conditions people in Miami saw YESTERDAY morning at this time. Talk about a fast mover. The GOM has had watches and warnings up for days so they know it's coming. People in Miami were a bit taken back and not much phases them when it comes to strong, severe weather. Often Tropical Storms in this area make landfall looking crappy on satellite imagery and yet show up beautiful on radar.

There are watches and warnings up. Follow the advice of the professionals. You have nothing to lose but a few hours of time and much to gain should the worst case scenario play out in your particular area. Speaking of "particular area" did I mention that Gordon's strongest winds are over a very small area .... however... it's weather mass is pretty much everywhere. Hunker down a bit, take some selfies, enjoy Mother Nature's show and it should be gone and out of the area fast.

Flooding risks shown below.

Time of arrival ....

If I hear someone remind people what Opal did...

....or Katrina did...

I may lose it.

This is not Opal.

This is not Katrina.

This is Tropical Storm Gordon.

Closing off again.

Moving in towards landfall.

Best signature since yesterday morning ... 

..when it made landfall near Key Largo.

Now it's poised for a second landfall.

I'll update later today on this.

For now follow the show on TWC.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Note on Twitter there are the skeptics and the hypsters.

The muses and the masters.

You may want to follow along.

#tropicalstormgordon

We so love to talk about the weather :)

As for Florence.

Relatively good news this morning.

The EURO has halted it's Doomsday Scenarios.

The EURO has basically copied the GFS.

But the GFS shows a ridge and a slow moving FLO now.

You can't make this stuff up.

Why we watch the models.

Stay with the official sources.

Glad we have products like this...

...but never forget the disclaimer.

Great product really.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Before going I want to point out a few things not mentioned much with regard to the Tropical Atlantic as everyone is singing the September Remember song currently. There is still a good amount of SAL out in the Atlantic, nothing like what it was, but enough to have an impact. I prefer not to make fun of the GFS or hype the EURO, they both show variables and they pick which variable they see the strongest and run with it extrapolating a future that may or may not happen down the road. They can change drastically every six hours or they stay the same for days, change, then change back and often like today the EURO sniffs out the ridge and then ignores it and then the GFS pumps up the ridge more than it did yesterday. That is why the NHC watches them, uses them and blends the final product into a smoother forecast with less jagged edges.

There's a lot of SAL out there.

Still .... FLO is wrapped in SAL.

That polka dot blue is SAL.

And she keeps punching WNW into Dry Air.

And there are more behind her.

Invest 92L is up to 70% Red.

Helene?

EURO sees more storms.

EURO develops two storms behind her.

Those two stay small but LOW.

As in cruising towards the Islands.

Caribbean and our side of the world.

The GFS isn't impressed much.

I'll update in the early afternoon ...

..if not earlier.

Stay tuned.

Do what you got to do...

...don't obsess on what isn't threatening.

Have a beautiful day.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter