UPDATED 11 PM Gordon 60 MPH -- Florence 70 MPH ... Invest 92L Orange Area in Atlantic Could Become Helene. Hurricane Warnings UP for GOM Coast. EURO Plays Chicken with East Coast and Florence. GFS Takes it Out to Sea
Quick update for positions tonight.
Waiting for Gordon's center to close off tonight.
In the Atlantic to the East...
Florence hovers near Hurricane Strength.
She looks far better on Earthnull than in the advisory,
As for the MIMIC it looked like she's trying to clear out an eye.
Loop the Loop.
Anyway it's a long term system.
Models take it further West than previously expected.
However it could make that turn and find...
...a break in the ridge.
Spoiler Alert..
EURO says there is no break in the ridge.
Hmnnn
Back to Gordon.
Recon has been in there...
....gathering data.
Kind of amazing isn't it?
They are 20 MPH apart.
Florence looks as if she has an eye developing.
Gordon is trying to close off the center.
The "storm" in general is producing strong weather.
Gordon that is..
If you live in an area where there are warnings.
Take them seriously.
This could ramp up before landfall.
Tides would be high.
Many areas near landfall have tall pines...
...prone to fall down and crash through homes.
Falling pines take out power ...
Barrier Islands have roads that can be flooded.
Radar and various views of Gordon.
I'll update early in the morning Tuesday.
Stay tuned.
We are busy as we expected to be in September
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Besos Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
This is where we stand at 5 PM.
Florence is out in the Atlantic moving West.
An Orange Area has 40% chances
92L has been designated as an Invest.
5 PM Advisory for TS Gordon
Tropical Storm Gordon has 50 MPH winds.
Hurricane Warnings are in place ...
...for the GOM coast.
Understand Gordon is a difficult system to actually write discussion for as people either love it or hate it, they see it as a major threat that could surprise everyone as many other hurricanes have along the Gulf of Mexico Coast and others insist it's barely there and not really a closed system. Anyone in Miami today would give a piece of their mind to anyone suggesting it's not really a tropical storm. But it is a small system, like Beryl, but unlike Beryl you can't even see it on Earthnull. Note Earthnull image below. Nothing nada.... and yet it's packing a huge punch with intense squalls with gusts up in the 60 mph range.
I have said this before and I'll say it again.
A system is measured by the actual weather.
The weather is there and it's strong.
And it has a history of intensifying fast.
I'm not a scientist I'm a writer.
I'm a historian.
Many times this issue comes up and I believe you view the system as a whole, you record the data and inform people of what to expect. The GOM has hosted many irregular looking tropical storms that looked like the Hindenburg with multiple centers yet the NHC hung with it and wrote long expressive discussion trying to explain how they were staying with one center vs the other that seemed stronger. There is something in consistency when warning the general public who doesn't want an academic discussion over technicalities. The NHC reviews each storm at the end of the season and someone will get Gordon and review it, analyze it and either make changes to the record or leave it the way it is. It is what it is. It came out of stealth mode today and many people in Miami and the nearby suburbs were upset and annoyed they were given no notice of how bad conditions were going to be until after it formed. Many online last night felt it was wrapping up when I fell asleep and easily they could have posted a Tropical Storm Watch at 5 AM but they did not. It's their call. Yet, seems odd they had a watch for New Orleans and nothing .. nada for Miami which was closer. What can I say? It is what it is.
Gordon is a fast moving system paralleling the Florida coast moving up into the Gulf of Mexico over very hot water and low shear or low enough shear as not to write it off. It also may be dealing with land interaction ans as it moves further up and out into the GOM it may show it's face again, it's eye and intensify. And history has shown that storms like this can ramp up fast before landfall... just as they are making landfall along the coast from Louisiana to Mississippi to Alabama to the Florida Panhandle and those areas need to be properly warned and so they have been warned. Now the rest is up to Gordon. Storms don't do what the models say they will but they often do what the models infer they may do. The EURO has stuck with Gordon since it was a weak tropical wave wandering along moving towards the Caribbean.
NHC discussion.
Note the use of the words "life threatening storm surge"
Gordon is carrying much strong weather.
And depending on when it makes landfall...
...tides will run high.
It may not show up on Earthnull but it shows up on radar.
There is a Hurricane Warning up...
...there are Tropical Storm Warnings up.
Take them seriously!
Nuff Said.
Better safe than sorry.
We can Monday Morning QB this on Thursday.
As for Florence.
Note they did not forecast it to be at 70 MPH by now.
So it out performed it's expectations today.
Going back to the Earthnull discussion.
I noticed earlier today that Florence looked stronger.
I'm not very surprised.
Florence has been tenacious and stubborn.
She's a fighter.
Now what?
GFS stands by their out to sea forecast.
A weakening of the strong ridge.
Could that happen?
Maybe, perhaps.
Note the moisture on the image below...
Between Florence and the East Coast is an area of moisture.
Perhaps...........this is what the GFS sees.
It's visible below as well.
However, the EURO, doesn't see that happening.
The Euro presents a stubborn solution of it moving more to the West.
The ridge builds in according to the EURO.
Note the EURO nailed Gordon.
The GFS didn't.
This is the EURO from the Tropical Tidbits website that everyone uses. I'm not going to pretend that it doesn't exist. It has been consistent and the trend is towards a strong ridge building in above Florence that pushes Florence West... even WSW possibly. Some of the ensemble members show it not being a threat and others (Jaws music) are making people from Jacksonville Florida to the VA border worry on Florence even though Florence is so far away.
Last frame very far out shows it cradled there by the coast.
A hurricane off the East Coast.
Trapped under a huge ridge.
Is it looping at that point?
Could this happen?
Maybe...
I'm showing this with the caveat that......
ITS A VERY LONG RANGE MODEL.
and with a reminder that the GFS is laughing...
The GFS has it up in the North Atlantic at that point.
What is more concerning is the EURO sees storms everywhere.
The GFS does not.
The GFS shows this........
Busting up into a weakness in the ridge.
So long FLO... nice knowing you.
The EURO shows FLO STUCK.
Trapped.
With a bevy of friends to her SE.
Who do you believe?
You watch and you wait ....
...you always be prepared.
At some point the truth will show itself.
In the same way that Gordon came out of hiding this morning...
...and sand blasted the Miami area that had no watch even.
Models infer, suggest and change their minds often.
You watch the trend.
You watch the storm.
And you pay attention to the NHC.
Right now it's just moving along to the West.
Forecast to climb later in the forecast period.
You watch Spaghetti Models.
Listen to Mike talk on Facebook Live.
Breathe in..
..Breathe out.
Florence Spaghetti Models above.
Maybe it's not a Fish Storm...
...or a BBQ Beef Storm.
Maybe it wants to serve Pasta?
Perhaps it' is going to move W to WNW..
Then stall, then loop...
Then find a path to the North eventually?
Could happen.
Has happened often in the past.
Invest 92L is shown below.
I'm not going to pretend the models aren't there.
I'm going to tell you to always be prepared.
And stay on top of late breaking changes.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm
Labels: Bobbistorm., EURO, Florence, forecasts, GFS, Gordon, Helene, hurricane, Invest92L, life, models, spaghettimodels, tropicalstorm, tropics, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:48 PM
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