Tropical Storm Gordon Set to Make Landfall. Tropical Storm Florence Still Cruising WNW. Is Helene in the Wings? Up to 70% Red Invest 92L

Color view below:

This is Tropical Storm Gordon.

You can see the brighter white....

...kind of it's core.

But remember there is weather across a wide area.

Real winds in a small area.

Rainfall across a wider area.

What also concerns me is where the rain goes later.

Far to the North ....

Have watch that.

The lead area with the white area is the core...

..the fast moving core.

The rest is the strong punch of gusty winds.

Not your classic looking Tropical Storm.

While searching for the right words to describe Tropical Storm Gordon I hear Jim Cantore say "convective blob" and I smiled. Yes, that pretty much describes Gordon today. It is a right sided "convective blob" carrying strong weather and winds higher than it's satellite appearance would lead us to believe.   Gulf of Mexico storms in that region in particular are prone to being right sided, lop sided and yet they carry a wicked punch at the beach and then move inland across a region filled with tall coastal pines that snap in strong tropical winds. When tall pines snap they crash down onto people's homes and disrupt their lives; sometimes falling pines can take lives. Palms are really more tropical friendly than pines and oaks.

Gordon is what Gordon is and it is possible that the main convective blob will intensify upon landfall as many similar tropical storms have done and once again come out of stealth mode and slam those Gulf of Mexico coastal beaches with the same conditions people in Miami saw YESTERDAY morning at this time. Talk about a fast mover. The GOM has had watches and warnings up for days so they know it's coming. People in Miami were a bit taken back and not much phases them when it comes to strong, severe weather. Often Tropical Storms in this area make landfall looking crappy on satellite imagery and yet show up beautiful on radar.

There are watches and warnings up. Follow the advice of the professionals. You have nothing to lose but a few hours of time and much to gain should the worst case scenario play out in your particular area. Speaking of "particular area" did I mention that Gordon's strongest winds are over a very small area .... however... it's weather mass is pretty much everywhere. Hunker down a bit, take some selfies, enjoy Mother Nature's show and it should be gone and out of the area fast.

Flooding risks shown below.

Time of arrival ....

If I hear someone remind people what Opal did...

....or Katrina did...

I may lose it.

This is not Opal.

This is not Katrina.

This is Tropical Storm Gordon.

Closing off again.

Moving in towards landfall.

Best signature since yesterday morning ... 

..when it made landfall near Key Largo.

Now it's poised for a second landfall.

I'll update later today on this.

For now follow the show on TWC.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Note on Twitter there are the skeptics and the hypsters.

The muses and the masters.

You may want to follow along.

#tropicalstormgordon

We so love to talk about the weather :)

As for Florence.

Relatively good news this morning.

The EURO has halted it's Doomsday Scenarios.

The EURO has basically copied the GFS.

But the GFS shows a ridge and a slow moving FLO now.

You can't make this stuff up.

Why we watch the models.

Stay with the official sources.

Glad we have products like this...

...but never forget the disclaimer.

Great product really.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Before going I want to point out a few things not mentioned much with regard to the Tropical Atlantic as everyone is singing the September Remember song currently. There is still a good amount of SAL out in the Atlantic, nothing like what it was, but enough to have an impact. I prefer not to make fun of the GFS or hype the EURO, they both show variables and they pick which variable they see the strongest and run with it extrapolating a future that may or may not happen down the road. They can change drastically every six hours or they stay the same for days, change, then change back and often like today the EURO sniffs out the ridge and then ignores it and then the GFS pumps up the ridge more than it did yesterday. That is why the NHC watches them, uses them and blends the final product into a smoother forecast with less jagged edges.

There's a lot of SAL out there.

Still .... FLO is wrapped in SAL.

That polka dot blue is SAL.

And she keeps punching WNW into Dry Air.

And there are more behind her.

Invest 92L is up to 70% Red.

Helene?

EURO sees more storms.

EURO develops two storms behind her.

Those two stay small but LOW.

As in cruising towards the Islands.

Caribbean and our side of the world.

The GFS isn't impressed much.

I'll update in the early afternoon ...

..if not earlier.

Stay tuned.

Do what you got to do...

...don't obsess on what isn't threatening.

Have a beautiful day.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

UPDATED 11 PM Gordon 60 MPH -- Florence 70 MPH ... Invest 92L Orange Area in Atlantic Could Become Helene. Hurricane Warnings UP for GOM Coast. EURO Plays Chicken with East Coast and Florence. GFS Takes it Out to Sea

Quick update for positions tonight.

Waiting for Gordon's center to close off tonight.

In the Atlantic to the East...

Florence hovers near Hurricane Strength.

She looks far better on Earthnull than in the advisory,

As for the MIMIC it looked like she's trying to clear out an eye.

Loop the Loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Anyway it's a long term system.

Models take it further West than previously expected.

However it could make that turn and find...

...a break in the ridge.

Spoiler Alert.. 

EURO says there is no break in the ridge.

Hmnnn

Back to Gordon.

Recon has been in there...

....gathering data.

Kind of amazing isn't it?

They are 20 MPH apart.

Florence looks as if she has an eye developing.

Gordon is trying to close off the center.

The "storm" in general is producing strong weather.

Gordon that is..

If you live in an area where there are warnings.

Take them seriously.

This could ramp up before landfall.

Tides would be high.

Many areas near landfall have tall pines...

...prone to fall down and crash through homes.

Falling pines take out power ...

Barrier Islands have roads that can be flooded.

Radar and various views of Gordon.

I'll update early in the morning Tuesday.

Stay tuned.

We are busy as we expected to be in September

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

This is where we stand at 5 PM.

Florence is out in the Atlantic moving West.

An Orange Area has 40% chances

92L has been designated as an Invest.

5 PM Advisory for TS Gordon

Tropical Storm Gordon has 50 MPH winds.

Hurricane Warnings are in place ...

...for the GOM coast.

Understand Gordon is a difficult system to actually write discussion for as people either love it or hate it, they see it as a major threat that could surprise everyone as many other hurricanes have along the Gulf of Mexico Coast and others insist it's barely there and not really a closed system. Anyone in Miami today would give a piece of their mind to anyone suggesting it's not really a tropical storm. But it is a small system, like Beryl, but unlike Beryl you can't even see it on Earthnull. Note Earthnull image below. Nothing nada.... and yet it's packing a huge punch with intense squalls with gusts up in the 60 mph range.

I have said this before and I'll say it again.

A system is measured by the actual weather.

The weather is there and it's strong.

And it has a history of intensifying fast.

I'm not a scientist I'm a writer.

I'm a historian.

Many times this issue comes up and I believe you view the system as a whole, you record the data and inform people of what to expect. The GOM has hosted many irregular looking tropical storms that looked like the Hindenburg with multiple centers yet the NHC hung with it and wrote long expressive discussion trying to explain how they were staying with one center vs the other that seemed stronger. There is something in consistency when warning the general public who doesn't want an academic discussion over technicalities. The NHC reviews each storm at the end of the season and someone will get Gordon and review it, analyze it and either make changes to the record or leave it the way it is. It is what it is. It came out of stealth mode today and many people in Miami and the nearby suburbs were upset and annoyed they were given no notice of how bad conditions were going to be until after it formed. Many online last night felt it was wrapping up when I fell asleep and easily they could have posted a Tropical Storm Watch at 5 AM but they did not.  It's their call. Yet, seems odd they had a watch for New Orleans and nothing .. nada for Miami which was closer. What can I say? It is what it is.

Gordon is a fast moving system paralleling the Florida coast moving up into the Gulf of Mexico over very hot water and low shear or low enough shear as not to write it off. It also may be dealing with land interaction ans as it moves further up and out into the GOM it may show it's face again, it's eye and intensify. And history has shown that storms like this can ramp up fast before landfall... just as they are making landfall along the coast from Louisiana to Mississippi to Alabama to the Florida Panhandle and those areas need to be properly warned and so they have been warned. Now the rest is up to Gordon. Storms don't do what the models say they will but they often do what the models infer they may do. The EURO has stuck with Gordon since it was a weak tropical wave wandering along moving towards the Caribbean. 

NHC discussion.

Note the use of the words "life threatening storm surge"

Gordon is carrying much strong weather.

And depending on when it makes landfall...

...tides will run high.

It may not show up on Earthnull but it shows up on radar.

There is a Hurricane Warning up...

...there are Tropical Storm Warnings up.

Take them seriously!

Nuff Said.

Better safe than sorry.

We can Monday Morning QB this on Thursday.

As for Florence.

Note they did not forecast it to be at 70 MPH by now.

So it out performed it's expectations today.

Going back to the Earthnull discussion.

I noticed earlier today that Florence looked stronger.

I'm not very surprised.

Florence has been tenacious and stubborn.

She's a fighter.

Now what?

GFS stands by their out to sea forecast.

A weakening of the strong ridge.

Could that happen?

Maybe, perhaps.

Note the moisture on the image below...

Between Florence and the East Coast is an area of moisture.

Perhaps...........this is what the GFS sees.

It's visible below as well.

However, the EURO, doesn't see that happening.

The Euro presents a stubborn solution of it moving more to the West.

The ridge builds in according to the EURO.

Note the EURO nailed Gordon.

The GFS didn't.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

This is the EURO from the Tropical Tidbits website that everyone uses. I'm not going to pretend that it doesn't exist. It has been consistent and the trend is towards a strong ridge building in above Florence that pushes Florence West... even WSW possibly. Some of the ensemble members show it not being a threat and others (Jaws music) are making people from Jacksonville Florida to the VA border worry on Florence even though Florence is so far away.

Last frame very far out shows it cradled there by the coast.

A hurricane off the East Coast.

Trapped under a huge ridge.

Is it looping at that point?

Could this happen?

Maybe...

I'm showing this with the caveat that......

ITS A VERY LONG RANGE MODEL.

and with a reminder that the GFS is laughing...

The GFS has it up in the North Atlantic at that point.

What is more concerning is the EURO sees storms everywhere.

The GFS does not.

The GFS shows this........

Busting up into a weakness in the ridge.

So long FLO... nice knowing you.

The EURO shows FLO STUCK.

Trapped.

With a bevy of friends to her SE.

Who do you believe?

You watch and you wait ....

...you always be prepared.

At some point the truth will show itself.

In the same way that Gordon came out of hiding this morning...

...and sand blasted the Miami area that had no watch even.

Models infer, suggest and change their minds often.

You watch the trend.

You watch the storm.

And you pay attention to the NHC.

Right now it's just moving along to the West.

Forecast to climb later in the forecast period.

You watch Spaghetti Models.

Listen to Mike talk on Facebook Live.

Breathe in.. 

..Breathe out.

Florence Spaghetti Models above.

Maybe it's not a Fish Storm...

...or a BBQ Beef Storm.

Maybe it wants to serve Pasta?

Perhaps it' is going to move W to WNW..

Then stall, then loop...

Then find a path to the North eventually?

Could happen.

Has happened often in the past.

Invest 92L is shown below.

I'm not going to pretend the models aren't there.

I'm going to tell you to always be prepared.

And stay on top of late breaking changes.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm