A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, May 31, 2020
Will TS AMANDA in the EPAC Crossover into the Gulf of Mexico & Become Cristobal? Possibly... NHC Watching, We ALL Are Watching. Are You Ready for 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
This is the area we are all watching.
Tropical Storm Amanda.
And possibilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Invest 92L is in the Atlantic currently.
Chances low but there.
I don't want us to forget it.
While obsessing on Amanda.
These are areas being watched.
For an uptick in tropical trouble.
On May 31st, 20320.
Are you ready for the Hurricane Season?
Mother Nature is...
She's so ready she started early in May.
Next storm up in the Atlantic is Cristobal!
The image above shows Amanda in the EPAC.
Where Amanda goes trouble may follow.
Sometimes an oldie goldie satellite loop is what I need on a Sunday Morning when I stayed up til 4 AM and then woke up groggy at 9 AM. It's May 31st, 2020 and I decided why not track Amanda as it seems Amanda wants to do a crossover dance into the Gulf of Mexico and if it does it will identify at Cristobal. So 2020 right/ Right.
So what do you do when the coffee and the shower doesn't wake you up? I had one Reese's Chocolate Peanut Butter Cup for breakfast. Mike says chocolate helps a headache. Hmnn I digress. But it definitely did make me feel better!
This is our system below in the EPAC you can see Amanda down there flowing North with the flow and that's what storms do, they don't buck the wind or the trends they look for an easy path to take when deciding where to go.
So let's look at the 11 AM information and note the cone of possibilities and marginal errors.
I have 2 basic rules when watching models and the NHC.
1. My first rule is I dislike discussing Crossover Storms that begin in the Eastern Pacific and end up in the Gulf of Mexico and yet they do happen, there are exceptions to every rule. They are long shots, yet as we all know sometimes when a long shot pays off it pays off in a big way and often in a memorable way.
2. I hate when the NHC puts up these loops with the circular cone tracks they usually never quite work out. I'll say it again, Matthew did not turn back to hit Miami and Palm Beach so while odd things can happen I'd bet against it. Amanada could dawdle, create horrendous flooding, mudslides and possible loss of life in Central America and Mexico and then sit there and spin or die there. Something else pops up in the Gulf of Mexico as the models are hungry for trouble and it would still be Cristobal. The tropical ball gets picked up and Cristobal runs with it. Or.....Amanda does the crossover dance and heads up towards the general Houston area but I'd watch carefully all the way to the Sabine River with this one. Check out the rain forecast for the next 5 days and extrapolate that Northward.
If Cristobal forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Can't promise he is a fast mover.
Models from Mike's Weather Page below.
He is updating 5 PM on Facebook I believe.
So where do we go from here?
I'm watching loops, models and Amanda...
And I'll update this blog later today.
I've been working on a post on the Hurricane Season.
This morning the flip flop is aware for all to see.
GFS doesn't do much with 92L
It shows 92L has a huge rainmaker.
Spread out across the N rim of the GOM.
The EURO however intensifies it.
Some models intensify it well into hurricane.
GFS stubbornly sees no hurricane or tropical storm.
Blend the two that is what the NHC does often.
Outliers are out there.
After it has made "splash down" we can talk on it.
Currently it's up near the Florida Georgia Line.
You knew this was coming right?
Again this is the weak edge of the Atlantic High.
If the High was stronger the convection would be less.
Think of it as a Ring of Convection.
Oh opps that's Florida ... Cuba.
In about 3 weeks from now...
...remember this image above.
So let's look at 92L and other waves to wonder upon.
This loop will show you where 92L will appear.
Finally, eventually onto the scene.
Top left in the NE part of the GOM.
I want to say this fast about the ongoing discussion of how weird this set up is ... in that it's not that weird but it doesn't happen often. Note the NW coast of South America where thunderstorm complexes come off of Columbia regularly moving either West into the Epac or eventually up into the Caribbean Sea for possible formation. Over by Africa there is another large area or land and we watch tropical waves roll off into the Atlantic and over by the bump on the East Coast known as the Carolinas we see thunderstorm complexes that come off and often form into subtropical storms or North Atlantic hurricanes. It often happens that an upper, mid level low vortex in the summer enhanced by passing conditions blows up a large complex with an quasi sort of center and moves down into the Gulf of Mexico. Often they don't develop, sometimes they do. Especially when there has been a persistent High aloft as there has been clamped down over the Southeast low pressure can form to the South of said High Pressure. Yes, there is a huge Atlantic High Pressure area but that area is a bit weak on it's Western rim currently and it's very possible off the West Coast of Florida as the models have shown something thunderstorms will intensify, clump together like awkward salesmen at a Meet Up and try to get something going. The EURO seems potential cyclone activity and the GFS can't decide whether to go up to the cute guy and give him her business card .... it's a drama we expected because generally the GFS flip flops. It has been fine tuned not to flip flop as it's the new improved GFS that has been rebranded with a new logo of sorts and a new business card for the 2019 Hurricane Season but basically it's the same old GFS with a new hair cut and as hair usually does ...it grows out and goes back to the shape it best enjoys best. What can I tell you it is what it is and we know what it is so we take the flip flopping with grains of salt and perhaps that's good. Perhaps the GFS provides the balance we need for the King Euro that wasn't to intensify trouble and often swings back a bit to the GFS point of view. We know how this dance goes. So let's watch it today in real time. I'll update later today.
I want to point one thing out and that is if something forms it will stay away from High Pressures and move towards Lower Pressure and that is as basic as it gets. On any given day you can watch a high pressure map of the area around a system and note which way the system will move to take advantage of the best set up. A girl with high cheek bones and great eyes is going to play them up with make up and a girl with no cheek bones is going to try and make it look as if she has them. Sometimes you get a girl who refuses to put make up on and you find a guy who refuses to use his fanciest filter on a picture of the sunset and that's okay too. It is what it is and it will be what it will be. We are along basically for the ride so enjoy the ride!
Speaking of rides.
These July tropical waves have been going the distance.
You don't hear much about them as they have't developed yet.
If you have kids in Miami or Puerto Rico....
....you know they have reached their target.
My Family WhatsApp group looks like daily Armaggedon
Or as my daughter says the Mother Ship is back.
Sometimes they use humor to deal with the daily monsoons.
And those monsoons are upped in intensity.....
.... with every new passing wave.
You can also follow him on SrulyCooks.
He's kind of become famous on his own there.
My concern is that the Miami South Florida area...
...has been in the flow of each strong tropical wave so far.
Why?
Caribbean has strong shear this time of year.
So the Northern edge of the waves flare up by PR & Miami.
That could change as the shear in the Caribbean weakens.
Climo shows it weakening.
Shear in the GOM is weakening as witnessed by 92L
Miami has had a very hot, wet summer.
That also favors an October hurricane from the SW or S.
As this year is ahead of schedule I'd worry earlier.
The NHC puts out discussion every day.
No pictures, lots of words.
Informative words with clues.
First we have our lead wave.
Fired up near PR and Cuba.
Still firing after all this time.
Another wave approaches the Island.
It's got a bit of oomph there for July.
Another huge convective swatch (wave) Central Atlantic.
Wow check that beauty that came off of Africa.
Each wave juices up the atmosphere for the next.
Ever marinate steak?
It's priming the region for problems.
The SAL is to the North as always.
The waves enter Stage Right and eat up the SAL.
It's an incredible tropical ballet every year.
This year we are running ahead of schedule.
So soon those waves will temporarily develop.
DID YOU KNOW...
The EURO has been developing waves out there...
In July.
Eventually one does something worthy of the NHC to notice.
MJO is on it's way...
...so the MJO is watching.
I'm watching as are others.
But today we are obsessing over 92L
Because that's the player on the stage.
Let's look at Earthnull
92L above shows ... something near NE Florida.
Remember by the way we are nearing July 10th.
The date I said last month we would have something to watch.
July 10th has been my date for "things to watch"
And we are watching indeed.
Oh and by the way there's a small circulation off of Africa.
A bit too low for this time of year.
However it shouldn't really be there for this time of year.
Expect August to be Peak of the Season for CV waves this year.
It tightened up since last night if you were wondering.
And in the end if comes down to this.
Are the models handling this properly?
Which models has it down best?
What will 92L do?
Will the High Pressure did in from the East?
Will it push it West?
Will 92L find a place with weaker pressure and grab it.
Heading more to the North than West.
Think of this like Waze.
If the models see a traffic jam of High Pressure.
It reroutes 92L maybe Barry around the traffic jam.
It's that simple.
So again the models will be better tomorrow.
And if Recon goes in ...
...the data from the dropsonde will help the models.
Tropical Storm Gordon Set to Make Landfall. Tropical Storm Florence Still Cruising WNW. Is Helene in the Wings? Up to 70% Red Invest 92L
Color view below:
This is Tropical Storm Gordon.
You can see the brighter white....
...kind of it's core.
But remember there is weather across a wide area.
Real winds in a small area.
Rainfall across a wider area.
What also concerns me is where the rain goes later.
Far to the North ....
Have watch that.
The lead area with the white area is the core...
..the fast moving core.
The rest is the strong punch of gusty winds.
Not your classic looking Tropical Storm.
While searching for the right words to describe Tropical Storm Gordon I hear Jim Cantore say "convective blob" and I smiled. Yes, that pretty much describes Gordon today. It is a right sided "convective blob" carrying strong weather and winds higher than it's satellite appearance would lead us to believe. Gulf of Mexico storms in that region in particular are prone to being right sided, lop sided and yet they carry a wicked punch at the beach and then move inland across a region filled with tall coastal pines that snap in strong tropical winds. When tall pines snap they crash down onto people's homes and disrupt their lives; sometimes falling pines can take lives. Palms are really more tropical friendly than pines and oaks.
Gordon is what Gordon is and it is possible that the main convective blob will intensify upon landfall as many similar tropical storms have done and once again come out of stealth mode and slam those Gulf of Mexico coastal beaches with the same conditions people in Miami saw YESTERDAY morning at this time. Talk about a fast mover. The GOM has had watches and warnings up for days so they know it's coming. People in Miami were a bit taken back and not much phases them when it comes to strong, severe weather. Often Tropical Storms in this area make landfall looking crappy on satellite imagery and yet show up beautiful on radar.
There are watches and warnings up. Follow the advice of the professionals. You have nothing to lose but a few hours of time and much to gain should the worst case scenario play out in your particular area. Speaking of "particular area" did I mention that Gordon's strongest winds are over a very small area .... however... it's weather mass is pretty much everywhere. Hunker down a bit, take some selfies, enjoy Mother Nature's show and it should be gone and out of the area fast.
Before going I want to point out a few things not mentioned much with regard to the Tropical Atlantic as everyone is singing the September Remember song currently. There is still a good amount of SAL out in the Atlantic, nothing like what it was, but enough to have an impact. I prefer not to make fun of the GFS or hype the EURO, they both show variables and they pick which variable they see the strongest and run with it extrapolating a future that may or may not happen down the road. They can change drastically every six hours or they stay the same for days, change, then change back and often like today the EURO sniffs out the ridge and then ignores it and then the GFS pumps up the ridge more than it did yesterday. That is why the NHC watches them, uses them and blends the final product into a smoother forecast with less jagged edges.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
