Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 01, 2020

Tropical Depression 3 Forms Forecast to Develop into Cristobal. Where Does It Go? All Depends on Timing.

Tropical Depression 3 Forms.


Expected to become Cristobal.
Slow Mover in the short term.
As per NHC new forecast cone.



Cristoball be sipping Cafecito and working out.
Check out that form...
Early signs of banding.
We may end up with a Hurricane...
...but for now let's talk Tropical Storm
They may go with TD first.


Note the placement of the X
when looking at the Earthnull below.


93L has moved out over water.
Will we get an upgrade at 5 PM?
Possibly.
Stay tuned.
Check back often!

Keep reading if you haven't already.
Well this is about as close to "go for liftoff" as we get.


This is an image of the tropics today.
June 1st, 2020.
So busy we are looking for the C storm to form.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

I want you to see the wide picture.
Something not being watched in Mid Atlantic.
Waves coming off of Africa.
And Invest 93L working it's way off the Yucatan.

Below is my fast CliffNotes version.
My longer discussion is below if you've got the time.



The video above shows my thinking currently on Invest 93 forecast by many to be Tropical Storm Cristobal down the tropical road; NHC at 8 am on the First Day of the Hurricane Season has given it a healthy, red 80% circle. I'm gonna leave the models to the Model Man that being Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com as he's good at getting that info out in a visual way. Next some discussion on the tropics today below. And, later today I'm posting a stand alone blog on the 2020 Hurricane Season but as I learned in Journalism 101 what is happening now is the news and takes precedence over a general public interest story.


Models do their generally Northbound movement.
Some then begin to veer off to the left or right.
Why is that?
Because it hasn't formed yet.
A grid Mike put up on Twitter.
Note the difference in TIMING
not just LANDFALL.



I don't usually quote Levi Cowan.
I respect him tremendously.
But his graphic shows what's in my mind.
To be fair in all our minds.
We are watching to see 93L make splashdown.


Until it does and until it forms and begins swimming.
Lots of options are on the table.

And I want you to remember this system has two parts.
This is a large envelope of mositure...
...circulating in a large complex 
We are tracking the part that gets into the GOM


Timing evolves in real time as this evolves.
That's true.
Models make guesses. 
I'll update model discussion later today.
Trying to keep this simple.




2 model images on www.windy.com
Know it always defaults to the Euro.
You can change settings and play with it.
It's a fabulous site and I use that word rarely.


EURO takes it into Texas.
A big swirl over Texas.
Much rain over Texas.
Yes, I know Texans hate to hear that.
When I say Texas I mean Houston area...
...in this particular case.
And what begins in Houston doesn't stay there.
It flows with the atmosphere.
I'm worried on the some what dead steering currents.


GFS shows a different evolution on THIS one run.
Pulls moisture further East.


And depending on what FORM this takes....
A sleek, small Tropical Storm 
OR
A huge, juggernaut Subtropical?
OR
A hurricane? Let's wait and see on that.

I will update this blog on 93L later today as models come in and Invest 93L puts it's feet in the water and it's toes in the sand and the next set of models come in...

And, I will put out a long Part 2 2020 Hurricane Season Forecast with my own thoughts, just mine though I know from speaking to a few of the better mets around here many have some of those same years in mind when thinking on this current Hurricane Season? Why? Not because we copy each other but because we are all looking at the same data and the same history and coming up with similar ideas where this hurricane season is going but again it evolves in real time.

Prepare NOW.
And not going political but adding in here that with the current unrest and protests that have turned violent in some places curfews are going into place. Seriously 2020 just seems like the year of Stay Home Stay Safe and take a Staycation for this Summer. If curfews are in place, check out your local information as it's totally possible some will limit portable gas sales. I haven't checked into the details yet but someone told me it would be wise to keep some extra gas around in a safe way if this situation may impact you. Yesterday we went out for the day to my favorite vacation spot in Raleigh and hung out at the Farmers Market. Colorful, fun, friendly and beach music playing while shoppers were socially distancing with colorful playful masks and friendly from a distance. I bought bright sunflowers in a mixed bouquet one almost the size of my head. I got a huge freshly made orange juice with berries and cherries thrown in and stopped at Ulta that was open for the first time and quickly bought a few things in case the store has to close again or is targeted by what has become looting riots vs a peaceful protest of the murder of George Floyd. Some stores in some places are going to close to the public again to try and protect their businesses and that could make it hard to find some products because to be honest I saw a lady grab the last of the 90 roll toilet paper and run out of the Target in Minnesota while others grabbed large screen TVs. I suppose we all have our own priorities in a Pandemic during a Protest.... I bring it up because what happens if that happens in Houston and then they close the Target you shop in because of the protest/looting and not because of Covid?

Video link of that bowling scenario if you can't picture it in your creative heads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQnphc6qeNs

There's a three prong problem here to work out and it's best to SHOP EARLY and STOCK UP for the Hurricane Seasson because Mother Nature don't care about protests or pandemics Mother Nature conjures up these storms and lets them rolle like a award winning bowler; except she's rolling a hurricane towards you not a bowling ball.

Stay tuned. Stay safe.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps...figure we could all use some "silly" right about now.





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posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:26 AM 0 comments

Sunday, May 31, 2020

Will TS AMANDA in the EPAC Crossover into the Gulf of Mexico & Become Cristobal? Possibly... NHC Watching, We ALL Are Watching. Are You Ready for 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season?



This is the area we are all watching.
Tropical Storm Amanda.
And possibilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 92L is in the Atlantic currently.
Chances low but there.


I don't want us to forget it.
While obsessing on Amanda.



These are areas being watched.
For an uptick in tropical trouble.
On May 31st, 20320.

Are you ready for the Hurricane Season?
Mother Nature is...
She's so ready she started early in May.
Next storm up in the Atlantic is Cristobal!
The image above shows Amanda in the EPAC.
Where Amanda goes trouble may follow.


hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Sometimes an oldie goldie satellite loop is what I need on a Sunday Morning when I stayed up til 4 AM and then woke up groggy at 9 AM. It's May 31st, 2020 and I decided why not track Amanda as it seems Amanda wants to do a crossover dance into the Gulf of Mexico and if it does it will identify at Cristobal. So 2020 right/ Right.

So what do you do when the coffee and the shower doesn't wake you up? I had one Reese's Chocolate Peanut Butter Cup for breakfast. Mike says chocolate helps a headache. Hmnn I digress. But it definitely did make me feel better!

This is our system below in the EPAC you can see Amanda down there flowing North with the flow and that's what storms do, they don't buck the wind or the trends they look for an easy path to take when deciding where to go.




So let's look at the 11 AM information and note the cone of possibilities and marginal errors.


I have 2 basic rules when watching models and the NHC. 

1. My first rule is I dislike discussing Crossover Storms that begin in the Eastern Pacific and end up in the Gulf of Mexico and yet they do happen, there are exceptions to every rule. They are long shots, yet as we all know sometimes when a long shot pays off it pays off in a big way and often in a memorable way.

2. I hate when the NHC puts up these loops with the circular cone tracks they usually never quite work out. I'll say it again, Matthew did not turn back to hit Miami and Palm Beach so while odd things can happen I'd bet against it. Amanada could dawdle, create horrendous flooding, mudslides and possible loss of life in Central America and Mexico and then sit there and spin or die there. Something else pops up in the Gulf of Mexico as the models are hungry for trouble and it would still be Cristobal. The tropical ball gets picked up and Cristobal runs with it. Or.....Amanda does the crossover dance and heads up towards the general Houston area but I'd watch carefully all the way to the Sabine River with this one. Check out the rain forecast for the next 5 days and extrapolate that Northward.


If Cristobal forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Can't promise he is a fast mover.
Models from Mike's Weather Page below.
He is updating 5 PM on Facebook I believe.



So where do we go from here?
I'm watching loops, models and Amanda...
And I'll update this blog later today.

I've been working on a post on the Hurricane Season.
But this is an issue that needs addressing now.

This is in the 7 day forecast.
That may change or evolve.
Weather evolves.
But when you see it here.
It's something to take seriously.


Oh and never forget Africa.
The early season wave train is real.


Check out those models tracks.



I'll update later.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:16 AM 0 comments