Monday Morning ... Tropical Update. Discussion on Possibility of Tropical Formation in the Atlantic Later This Week? Next Week Closer to the E Coast? Are Florence and Gordon Out There?
Newest waves off of Africa.
Low but nicely holding together.
More where those came from...
In the Gulf of Mexico and off the Carolina Coast...
...convection continues to bubble up and not fade away.
Even though NHC doesn't yet have a yellow circle.
Models are showing possibilities.
You can watch the flow of moisture westward.
Current wave interesting.
Models actually play with it down the road.
They play with the wave behind it.
Lots of "play" and not nothing more for now.
But as each model run shows lowered pressures.
At some point we will see a yellow circle way out there.
Yet we need to know it's possible it will develop closer in.
Or will it develop on it's way west?
This is a long term process.
The mean season is because it isn't easy.
Kind of a tease.
People get mean.
Testy.
It's hot.
It's humid.
It "feels like" tropical weather.
People worry....
"it only takes one...."
Stuck in their head.
Florence and Gordon.
Sounds a bit like a sitcom.
Two meteorologists maybe.
Arguing over models.
How many runs of the EURO model does the NHC need...
... because we can't just assess satellite imagery anymore?
Models come and go changing their mind.
EURO hot to trot then it's not.
Then GFS jumps onto a wave.
Then GFS backs off...
..then EURO looks back.
Who is in charge these days?
The models or the meteorologists?
Something to think on.
One reason so many people love Mike.
He tells it like it is.
He doesn't pretend to be sure.
People want people.
People want people they can trust...
Models should be guides.
Not the bar we judge a wave by.
Stay tuned.
Keep reading.
What Mike said................
Long range models see possibilities.
Keeping this short for now...
...planning an update later in the day.
Model discussion, etc.
Beautiful view below.
Smooth sailing in the tropics today.
(Steve Lyons used to say that...)
Noticeable strong wave that rolled off Africa.
Some convectional clutter in the GOM.
DaBuh is watching it for us.
And Miriam in the Pacific.
Yes they are on the M storm.
And the beat goes on.
In the world of the weird.
It looks like King Neptune staring ...
...at the newest wave coming off of Africa.
Eyes nose...
Oh wait...
Almost looks like a women's face there...
...staring back.
Hmnnn
Stay tuned.
Check back later today.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
PS
PS
If that girl had to wait to get confirmation from models or a Ouija Board...
....some other girl would catch him.
Labels: atlantic, discussion, meteorologists, models, Remember, September, spinning, tropical, tropics, Waves, weather, westbound
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:44 AM
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