UPDATED. 5 PM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ---- Invest 99L Doing It's Thing. TS Ernesto Moving Towards Ireland. Areas in the Atlantic Being Watched and Discussed. It's August. Find a Beach, Dance to the Music But Pay Attention to Your Weather Apps and Alerts.
Ernesto is now a Tropical Storm.
Short lived but a TS never the less.
I feel like it earned it's wings.
Maybe became legitimate.
Like finding who you are on Ancestry.
Okay...seriously.
Discussion explains it below.
Tightened up.
Visible on Earthnull.
Images below.
Much better signature below.
Tropical Storm.
No longer Subtropical.
As for Invest 99L
Models still playing with it.
Has a narrow window over the next few days.
Maybe it it located to the North Atlantic...
Always does it's best late in the day.
Another view of 99L
Close up view of 99L
If it has a "center" trying to form.
It's in that larger white mass.
Keep watching.
You can see 99L moving towards the Caribbean.
Worth noting the old wave is to the West of it.
The one that dumped flooding rain on Trinidad and Tobago
Stay tuned....
Again it's a long term process.
It's an interesting process.
No Killer Cane there...
... weather moving Westbound.
With a chance it may intensity.
Keep reading if you did not read this blog earlier.
Or to review what I said.
This is the State of the Tropics Thursday Morning.
Ernesto doing it's thing up in the N Atlantic.
Invest 99L doing it's thing.
What is 99L's thing you ask?
It's being a tropical wave.
A tropical wave being "investigated" . . .
. . . that means it's being watched basically.
Close up of that part of the Atlantic shown below.
Using the site above...
You see Ernesto tightly wound up.
Down below you do not see 99L tightly wound up.
There is a "disturbance" in the force...
Kinks in the wind barbs.
Far from organized
So why are we watching it?
Models like it.
And it put on quite a show yesterday.
Still there this morning.
Note intensity modeling likes it.
Models could be very off.
We watch, we wait, we go on with life.
And Invest 99L keeps doing it's thing.
Model illustrations courtesy of Levi Cowan
He is always visually exacting.
So what is the big deal here exactly? It's a large wave with several areas that could fire up and become the main center ..........if a center develops........and where it develops (if it develops) would tell the story track wise. If it doesn't develop it just limps into the Caribbean fighting shear and trying to possibly develop later. That later for people along the cities of the Gulf of Mexico catches their attention. The lead part of the wave that is higher catches the attention of the people in PR who are still recovering from last year. The NHC is watching the area further to the rear and remember their graphic is not a track or a cone but an an area where it can develop if it develops.
John Morales out of Miami isn't a believer.
He's a voice well respected in Miami and S Florida.
He gives it 2 days.
"Not a concern"
Many people in the Islands are praying on that.
If 2018 is the Year of the Subtropical Storm in the North Atlantic it gives the Islands a chance to continue recovering from last year's historic hurricane season. Note again as I have said many people in South Florida still have blue tarps on their rooftops. And a bad roof during the hurricane season always adds stress. Even when there is no Invest there is always a weak tropical wave passing through the Florida Straits, over Cuba and across South Florida.
Let's keep them weak....
Interestingly some mets are watching other features..
..features not officially an Invest.
Possibly because of systems like Debby and Ernesto...
..any ULL in the Atlantic with moisture is watched this year?
Flip sides of a coin.
You can see above 99L
You can also see the convection they are watching.
Below you see the WV Image.
The ULL comes out of hiding in the WV Image.
Located to the NW of 99L
Upper Level Lows tickle the environment.
On a very simplistic level.
They enhance convection in tropical waves.
Bottom Line...
Keep watching.
And if you live in the Mid Atlantic or NE...
...stay tuned to your local weather sources.
The NWS alerts...
..Weather Radio.
Weather Apps.
Flooding has been a persistent problem.
Flooding "Up North" has been this summer's big threat.
Flash Floods happen fast.
Knowledge is power.
Stay abreast of fast moving weather changes in your area.
Worry less on tropical waves in the tropics.
(Unless you're in the Islands...
... worrying is locational afterall.
As for me in North Carolina ...
..I'm watching the slow progression of a front.
The passage of summer into fall.
As always Spaghetti Models covers it all!
Bottom right - there is a Twitter Feed.
In the quiet times it goes off topic.
Mets love sports ...
Mets travel and watch sunsets.
But during weather events it comes alive...
...with very good information.
So check it out as needed ;)
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. I'll update as needed throughout the day.
But mostly today is a day to just watch and wait.
Tropics become more active as August progresses.
Mike is selling a tee shirt he designed.
Good graphic.
Seasons have prime time vs June 1st to Nov 30th.
August 15th shows a peak of activity.
Without a MJO or Kelvin Wave.
Just plain old Climo.
August 16th!
Typically shows an increase in tropical activity.
As always be yourself.
"If you don't like my story...
.... go write your own."
The always incomparable Camila Cabello
(A sense of humor always is good!)
The music matches the make up today :)
Labels: 99L, eastcoast, ernesto, flooding, Florida, Havana, invest, makeup, maps, music, PR, rain, tropicalstorm, tropics, ULLs, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:21 AM
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