UPDATED. 5 PM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ---- Invest 99L Doing It's Thing. TS Ernesto Moving Towards Ireland. Areas in the Atlantic Being Watched and Discussed. It's August. Find a Beach, Dance to the Music But Pay Attention to Your Weather Apps and Alerts.

Ernesto is now a Tropical Storm.

Short lived but a TS never the less.

I feel like it earned it's wings.

Maybe became legitimate.

Like finding who you are on Ancestry.

Okay...seriously.

Discussion explains it below.

Tightened up.

Visible on Earthnull.

Images below.

Much better signature below.

Tropical Storm.

No longer Subtropical.

As for Invest 99L

Models still playing with it.

Has a narrow window over the next few days.

Maybe it it located to the North Atlantic...

Always does it's best late in the day.

Another view of 99L

Close up view of 99L

If it has a "center" trying to form.

It's in that larger white mass.

Keep watching.

You can see 99L moving towards the Caribbean.

Worth noting the old wave is to the West of it.

The one that dumped flooding rain on Trinidad and Tobago 

Stay tuned....

Again it's a long term process.

It's an interesting process.

No Killer Cane there...

... weather moving Westbound.

With a chance it may intensity.

Keep reading if you did not read this blog earlier.

Or to review what I said.

This is the State of the Tropics Thursday Morning.

Ernesto doing it's thing up in the N Atlantic.

Invest 99L doing it's thing.

What is 99L's thing you ask?

It's being a tropical wave.

A tropical wave being "investigated" . . .

. . . that means it's being watched basically.

https://earth.nullschool.net

Close up of that part of the Atlantic shown below.

Using the site above...

You see Ernesto tightly wound up.

Down below you do not see 99L tightly wound up.

There is a "disturbance" in the force...

Kinks in the wind barbs.

Far from organized

So why are we watching it?

Models like it.

And it put on quite a show yesterday.

Still there this morning. 

Note intensity modeling likes it.

Models could be very off.

We watch, we wait, we go on with life.

And Invest 99L keeps doing it's thing.

Model illustrations courtesy of Levi Cowan

He is always visually exacting.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

So what is the big deal here exactly? It's a large wave with several areas that could fire up and become the main center ..........if a center develops........and where it develops (if it develops) would tell the story track wise. If it doesn't develop it just limps into the Caribbean fighting shear and trying to possibly develop later. That later for people along the cities of the Gulf of Mexico catches their attention. The lead part of the wave that is higher catches the attention of the people in PR who are still recovering from last year. The NHC is watching the area further to the rear and remember their graphic is not a track or a cone but an an area where it can develop if it develops. 

John Morales out of Miami isn't a believer.

He's a voice well respected in Miami and S Florida.

He gives it 2 days.

"Not a concern"

Many people in the Islands are praying on that.

If 2018 is the Year of the Subtropical Storm in the North Atlantic it gives the Islands a chance to continue recovering from last year's historic hurricane season. Note again as I have said many people in South Florida still have blue tarps on their rooftops. And a bad roof during the hurricane season always adds stress. Even when there is no Invest there is always a weak tropical wave passing through the Florida Straits, over Cuba and across South Florida.

Let's keep them weak....

Interestingly some mets are watching other features..

..features not officially an Invest.

Possibly because of systems like Debby and Ernesto...

..any ULL in the Atlantic with moisture is watched this year?

Flip sides of a coin.

You can see above 99L 

You can also see the convection they are watching.

Below you see the WV Image.

The ULL comes out of hiding in the WV Image.

Located to the NW of 99L

Upper Level Lows tickle the environment.

On a very simplistic level.

They enhance convection in tropical waves.

Bottom Line...

Keep watching.

And if you live in the Mid Atlantic or NE...

...stay tuned to your local weather sources.

The NWS alerts...

..Weather Radio.

Weather Apps.

Flooding has been a persistent problem.

Flooding "Up North" has been this summer's big threat.

Flash Floods happen fast.

Knowledge is power.

Stay abreast of fast moving weather changes in your area.

Worry less on tropical waves in the tropics.

(Unless you're in the Islands... 

... worrying is locational afterall.

www.windy.com

As for me in North Carolina ...

..I'm watching the slow progression of a front.

The passage of summer into fall.

As always Spaghetti Models covers it all!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Bottom right - there is a Twitter Feed.

In the quiet times it goes off topic.

Mets love sports ... 

Mets travel and watch sunsets.

But during weather events it comes alive...

...with very good information.

So check it out as needed ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. I'll update as needed throughout the day.

But mostly today is a day to just watch and wait.

Tropics become more active as August progresses.

Mike is selling a tee shirt he designed.

Good graphic.

Seasons have prime time vs June 1st to Nov 30th.

August 15th shows a peak of activity.

Without a MJO or Kelvin Wave.

Just plain old Climo.

August 16th!

Typically shows an increase in tropical activity.

As always be yourself.

"If you don't like my story...

.... go write your own."

The always incomparable Camila Cabello 

(A sense of humor always is good!)

The music matches the make up today :)

UPDATED! Yellow Circle Off Florida 0% From NHC - Tropical Rains Florida and Hawaiian Volcano - Kentucky Derby... Do You Have a Horse in The Race?

So I got back from the store.

The NHC has spoken.

Yellow circle - 0%

I know this makes people's hearts race a little faster today in South Florida where many homes still have blue tarps up on their rooftops. My brother sent me a WhatsApp message asking what the heck was going on. As I said below in the blog from earlier today at some point the NHC may make note of it but explain why they are giving it a zero percent chance of developing. So far... that is what they did at 10:45 AM putting out a Special Tropical Weather Outlook. It's a complicated set up yet very common this time of year and sometimes it leads to Subtropical Storm designation and other times long explanations why they are not naming the area and why they gave it a zero percent chance of development. It's always worth mentioning that sometimes things change so stay tuned and pay attention to your favorite reliable weather sources either on Facebook, Twitter or the TV news. John Morales tweeted this earlier today quoting the discussion from the NHC.

You can find that discussion here.

Or hover your mouse over the yellow X.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Stay tuned . . .

The wrapping up of this tropical rain maker is mesmerizing to watch. It's a process as old as time, especially this time of year, yet it always transfixes us with wonder as we move deeper into May and closer to the Hurricane Season. 

Phil explains it well on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/PhilFerro7

The atmosphere heats up day by day as moisture latent air wets up the atmosphere and down below the ocean gets warmer day by day. At some point the point is reached where these two parameters peak to the point that something tropical could start spinning and get designation in some form be it a name or an explanation of why advisories were initiated. This time of year it is more likely to get a long explanation of why they were not initiated but a warning that there will be heavy tropical rains. Time will tell and as this time of year is an odd time when they can either become huge washouts that put Miami on the National News showing flooding streets or they can wrap up into very small cyclonic entities with subtropical designation and slide up along the edge of the East Coast of Florida and then linger around the Outer Bank kicking up the surf even more than normal. Time will tell. 

We are all watching. I'm starting my day now by watching www.spaghettimodels.com as I slowly wake up trying to focus in on the many grids of satellite imagery and maps until I get the right feel for what is going on in the tropical world. Zeroing in on what catches my attention the most and then surfing around the web for more details to fill in my overall general picture. The window is there but it is narrow and hard to fit through so keep watching. 

Then @DaDaBuh provides the musical backdrop for my day which is wonderful as I think I finally have the Savage Garden song out of my mind! He's also not afraid to step out on a ledge and take a look at the various possibilities there be they high surf or a slim shot of getting the name Alberto but I'm guessing My Boy Jack probably has better odds of winning the Kentucky Derby. You pick your odds, you go with your gut, you place your bets and sit back and watch what happens on any given Saturday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/04/sports/kentucky-derby-odds-picks.html

On the larger scale TWC is watching the area of tropical rain that is moving en masse towards South Florida after dumping copious amounts of rain on Hispaniola and Cuba. See the definition below and the tweet from TWC as Hurricane Season gets closer day by day.

We can talk on the odds of this getting a name all night long but in the end it's the NHC that makes that call. But we talk, we watch and we wait and we are still crazy after all these years. Crazy about weather ;) and music and tropical discussion.

As for Ye Olde Kentucky Derby....

Rain is in the forecast.

As for Hawaii somethings gotta give as the heat builds up and then when the ground shakes, rattles and rolls the lava starts to flow. Hawaii is in the zone for Earthquakes and Miami and WPB stick out into the Tropical Atlantic almost daring some named storm to come and blow them away. One way or the other you better start preparing for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Do NOT be misled by discussion online about the waters being cooler than normal in the MDR and worry more about how warm the water is close in along the SE coast as Mike will always remind you online that home grown action can spin up fast when you live in Florida so don't get confused by the sound bites or click bait!

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps. Looks a lot like Clark Kent stalking Lois Lane here or is Lois Lane doing what she does on purpose to get Clark Kent's attention? Hmnnn Hard to say. Happy May 4th or #Maythe4thBeWithYouDay

Hurricane Season 4 Months Away. School in PR JUST Got Electric Back While Much of PR is STILL in the DARK. Lunar Eclipse Photos.

Remember when?

The 2017 Hurricane Season seems like the past.

But in Puerto Rico it's an ongoing story.

It's an ongoing struggle.

Yesterday was one of the inspiring sort of days when images flood my feed from the Lunar Eclipse. Each image had it's own beauty; some taken with cellphones and others with expensive cameras. Each one caught a different angle. But the most inspiring moment yesterday came when the video of power being restored to a school in Puerto Rico was shown in those same social media feeds. Yesterday, 112 days after Hurricane  Maria slammed into Puerto Rico the power was turned back on in one school where children cheered. Mind you the children had been learning without the electric on as life goes on even without the use of lights or air conditioning and trust me Puerto Rico can be hot in September and October. It can be hot all year some years when cold fronts don't make it down that far into the Caribbean.



I remember after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 when a fleet of power trucks made it to my block everyone began gathering on the sidewalk, staring out of windows and watched and waited for that moment when the power came on. After word spread that they said they hoped to have it on my later in the day the wait began. People positioned themselves by their windows watching as if it was the Super Bowl. And, I have to tell you when the electric comes on the first thing you notice is the noise not the lights. There is this sudden burst of sounds you are used to every day running in the background but that were silent for weeks in 1992 on my street. People waved and cheered as if a battle had been won. That battle, that struggle is still going on today in February of 2018 as a good part of Puerto Rico is still without power. School by school they are trying to get back to normal. Normal will be much longer for small homes in villages that may wait until news of the new 2018 Hurricane Season is around the corner.

This really worries me as this season is forecast by many to be just as busy if not busier than the 2017 Hurricane Season. Much depends on how strong the tropical waves are and where the high sets up and where hurricanes will go once they formed.  Hopefully none will take aim directly at some place like Puerto Rico the way Maria did in September of 2017.

Yes this is a gentle reminder.

2018 Hurricane Season begins in 4 months!

As we battle the flu this winter.

The hurricane season is lurking out there.

No flu shot against the Hurricane Season.

But you can prepare.

Now is the time to think on what you need.

Moving to Wyoming really isn't an option...

So prepare. Please.

Now let's talk on the moon.

The Sunrise Eclipse.

Bloody Red.

Blue Blood.

This eclipse had so much hype.

And it seems to have lived up to the hype.

Enjoy the pic my brother took in Florida.

He's popular on Instagram for his photography.

Sweet and golden.

Ron Schwartz

@rgsappraisal on Twitter

My brother (in South Florida where it's warm) woke up early and went out in search of the beautiful moon. He lives near a lake, he has a nice view of the Western sky and it worked out perfectly for him. He took that dramatic picture shown above. If I could have watched from my yard I'm sure I'd been out there. 

I have to be honest I didn't bundle up and wander around any fields in NC looking for a good view of the eclipse that was low to the horizon just before dawn in my neck of the woods. I know where I probably could have gone but decided to pass on it. I've just gotten past the flu and I didn't want to risk a relapse. I did get a nice picture earlier in the evening the night before just as it was rising at dusk. Dusk is probably one of my favorite times of the day and it's always hard to get a good shot with my phone that tries to adjust the color; smart isn't always so smart it seems. But there the moon was hanging over North Hills in Raleigh looking spectacular. I figured after getting such a nice view I should call it a victory and watch the eclipse online from under the covers. Thanks for everyone who sent me awesome pictures. My picture below when the moon was rising hours before the actual eclipse.

Luckily Michael McGee took the picture below; an awesome, magical picture in Charleston that Shea Gibson shared on Twitter. Look at that... incredible.

Oddly another beautiful shot was in black and white of the International Space Station seen across the face of the moon. My brother in Greece used to follow the ISS years back, not sure if he still does and my local weather forecaster in Raleigh showed the image on TV as he's a fan. Many people enjoy trying to get a glimpse of the ISS. https://spotthestation.nasa.gov/sightings/ Many local weather people on the nightly news mention when it's going to be visible in their area. Great picture.

As for the weather forecast...

It's going to get rocky again soon.

There is much talk about a storm forming.

A winter storm.

See those swirls out West...

They be moving this way soon.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps For everyone battling the flu .... feel better, hang in there and lay low and take it slow and get healthy fast!

Enjoy the fun video with the beautiful song hidden inside :) You know when you are from Miami when everyone in this video looks so normal... and yeah I've broken a few flip flops throwing them :(