UPDATED! Yellow Circle Off Florida 0% From NHC - Tropical Rains Florida and Hawaiian Volcano - Kentucky Derby... Do You Have a Horse in The Race?

So I got back from the store.

The NHC has spoken.

Yellow circle - 0%

I know this makes people's hearts race a little faster today in South Florida where many homes still have blue tarps up on their rooftops. My brother sent me a WhatsApp message asking what the heck was going on. As I said below in the blog from earlier today at some point the NHC may make note of it but explain why they are giving it a zero percent chance of developing. So far... that is what they did at 10:45 AM putting out a Special Tropical Weather Outlook. It's a complicated set up yet very common this time of year and sometimes it leads to Subtropical Storm designation and other times long explanations why they are not naming the area and why they gave it a zero percent chance of development. It's always worth mentioning that sometimes things change so stay tuned and pay attention to your favorite reliable weather sources either on Facebook, Twitter or the TV news. John Morales tweeted this earlier today quoting the discussion from the NHC.

You can find that discussion here.

Or hover your mouse over the yellow X.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Stay tuned . . .

The wrapping up of this tropical rain maker is mesmerizing to watch. It's a process as old as time, especially this time of year, yet it always transfixes us with wonder as we move deeper into May and closer to the Hurricane Season. 

Phil explains it well on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/PhilFerro7

The atmosphere heats up day by day as moisture latent air wets up the atmosphere and down below the ocean gets warmer day by day. At some point the point is reached where these two parameters peak to the point that something tropical could start spinning and get designation in some form be it a name or an explanation of why advisories were initiated. This time of year it is more likely to get a long explanation of why they were not initiated but a warning that there will be heavy tropical rains. Time will tell and as this time of year is an odd time when they can either become huge washouts that put Miami on the National News showing flooding streets or they can wrap up into very small cyclonic entities with subtropical designation and slide up along the edge of the East Coast of Florida and then linger around the Outer Bank kicking up the surf even more than normal. Time will tell. 

We are all watching. I'm starting my day now by watching www.spaghettimodels.com as I slowly wake up trying to focus in on the many grids of satellite imagery and maps until I get the right feel for what is going on in the tropical world. Zeroing in on what catches my attention the most and then surfing around the web for more details to fill in my overall general picture. The window is there but it is narrow and hard to fit through so keep watching. 

Then @DaDaBuh provides the musical backdrop for my day which is wonderful as I think I finally have the Savage Garden song out of my mind! He's also not afraid to step out on a ledge and take a look at the various possibilities there be they high surf or a slim shot of getting the name Alberto but I'm guessing My Boy Jack probably has better odds of winning the Kentucky Derby. You pick your odds, you go with your gut, you place your bets and sit back and watch what happens on any given Saturday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/04/sports/kentucky-derby-odds-picks.html

On the larger scale TWC is watching the area of tropical rain that is moving en masse towards South Florida after dumping copious amounts of rain on Hispaniola and Cuba. See the definition below and the tweet from TWC as Hurricane Season gets closer day by day.

We can talk on the odds of this getting a name all night long but in the end it's the NHC that makes that call. But we talk, we watch and we wait and we are still crazy after all these years. Crazy about weather ;) and music and tropical discussion.

As for Ye Olde Kentucky Derby....

Rain is in the forecast.

As for Hawaii somethings gotta give as the heat builds up and then when the ground shakes, rattles and rolls the lava starts to flow. Hawaii is in the zone for Earthquakes and Miami and WPB stick out into the Tropical Atlantic almost daring some named storm to come and blow them away. One way or the other you better start preparing for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Do NOT be misled by discussion online about the waters being cooler than normal in the MDR and worry more about how warm the water is close in along the SE coast as Mike will always remind you online that home grown action can spin up fast when you live in Florida so don't get confused by the sound bites or click bait!

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps. Looks a lot like Clark Kent stalking Lois Lane here or is Lois Lane doing what she does on purpose to get Clark Kent's attention? Hmnnn Hard to say. Happy May 4th or #Maythe4thBeWithYouDay

Time to Spice Up the Hurricane Name List with Names like Mateo and Morgan! May I Suggest Gender Neutral Names!

WINTER STORM MATEO

Up North moving East

Dipping just a drop South but not much.

Taking a short break from tracking the Stock Market and sharing a random thought here with y'all this morning. Somewhere between dueling memos and hype on the Olympics I decided to check out The Weather Channel. I know it is hard to believe I don't watch TWC all day. Let's face it and admit winter is here for a little while longer and then we start hearing about early Spring Storms and then we move towards whispered discussion on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Winter Storm Mateo is having it's day as snow is causing pile ups on major highways, some travel delays and it's bringing winter weather to places where there should be winter weather. I looked up at the screen and thought, "wow, Mateo... that's a great name! A real waste on a winter storm"

I've got to be honest without Googling I'm not sure who all these people are but they definitely have me smiling. Of course to the rest of the world that doesn't live or die by TWC and their naming winter storms this would just basically be called "another bout of winter weather" nothing expected to make the record books or take attention away from memos, the Stock Market or the Winter Olympics.

My husband walks into the room and hears TWC talking about Mateo and he says, "wouldn't that be a better name for a hurricane?" and I laughed as basically I was just thinking the same thing. So what is in a name?

Perhaps if we deviated from the overly anal way the Hurricane Center does their naming system we could move away from Mindy and Michael and move on to some way different names for hurricanes. The list below shows the following M Hurricane names in rotation and as there are storms as mean and violent as Maria was they get stuck there way too long. Michael is a great name and Melissa is one of my favorites, Marco is iconic from One Life to Live a show the NHC seems to have watched considering many of their names were famous characters on the show. Moving on we have Mindy and Martin waiting in the wings and at some point they will add a name to replace Maria that will be retired. May I suggest Mateo?

I'm pretty sure a name like Mateo would attain Cat 5 Status late in the season and not slam into Central America like Mitch nor would it want to do San Juan like Maria. An ocean spinner perhaps to end the season? 

The problem with recycling the names forever is you get a name like Hurricane Emily that produces multiple memorable storms but which one were you referring to? When someone says Donna or Katrina or Andrew we know. But then there are those ongoing repeat offenders with minor crimes coming back over and over confusing those of us that like to talk about Hurricanes. "Oh that Emily? Yeah I was talking about the one that drew Alfred Hitchcock's face in the Atlantic" to which someone goes "yeah that was crazy" and well you get the idea.

Perhaps the NHC should update their list a bit to get more interest on Snapchat. How about making the list a neutral gender names? We can use names like Morgan and Marley which is actually a great name for  Hurricane. Can't you see the headlines and graphics if it got into the Caribbean?

So yeah it's time the name list gets an update from it's early 1950s names and the forever wonderful One Life to Live names (Katrina, Larry, Marco, Karen, Victor, Vickie, Wanda) perhaps they should spice up the list a bit more with some new names to make things more interesting and less confusing. Some great gender neutral names are shown below. 

https://closeronline.co.uk/family/news/unisex-baby-name-gender-neutral-meaning/

Just something to think on while waiting for the Winter Olympics to begin and before we worry on what the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will bring as we move on through Alberto and Beryl once again.............

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Severe Weather & When We Started Naming Hurricanes - Hurricane History Lesson of the Week

Danger Danger ... 

Severe Weather Continues.

It's not over til it's over..

..and then comes Hurricane Season.

Not much to say tropically today, but I want to point a few things out so you can better understand the weather threats this week.

This is a static image.

Like a painting in black and white.

Put it in motion and you see the evolution.

Note something tries to get going down by the Yucatan.
But, it's too early as the action is to the North.

The energy from the Yucatan transfers towards the main stage.

You can see a dry line setting up.

A cone like active zone sets up.

This is weather art in motion.

From high up it's beautiful to watch.

On the ground it's dangerous.

With lots of moving parts.

All moving East and up the coast.

And further West is another system waiting.

Coming in from the West... Eastbound.

This is what is called Spring Weather.

Severe Weather Season

This will go on and on and on...

For the next week at least.

A cold front is draped across the Country.

But it won't do all that much.

Well if you are up in the Southern Appalachians...

Might see some snow flakes.

High up there.

Chilly Night on the old AT.

As for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season ...

I want to say this about that:

Got this great graphic from Ye Olde Almanac

http://www.almanac.com/content/list-names-2017-hurricane-season

You know the Baby Boomer's version of Buzz Feed.

A few points of trivia apparently needed.

Years ago storms were named after the fact.

Towns trashed, people died.

They named it for the Saint's Day.

San Felipe Hurricane.

Santa Ana Hurricane.

It was a different world back then.

We studied their aftermath.

We didn't forecast their path.

Fast forward to the 1950s.

Previously they just had numbers.

See 1949 Hurricane Season....

Fast Forward to 1950.

Names were applied to the storms in real time.

Miamians remember this as Hurricane King arrived.

Marched up Biscayne Blvd like a tropical float.

Old timers will get that... 

Sadly kids today don't understand the concept.

It's sort of like Snapchat meets a Pub Crawl.

Moving along now.

1953

Women had the honor of having their names used.

1979 Men got antsy and wanted their name fame day!

A few male storms stole the show.

Hurricane David tried to march up the Florida Coast.

Scared everyone from Miami North.... 

Made landfall. 

Compare and contrast to Hurricane King.

So that's my lesson in Hurricane History for today.

So the next time some good old boys get together.

And start talking about when they started naming hurricanes.......

Remember Able, Baker, Charlie 1950

1953 Women's Names.

1979 Men and Women Names.

A long, long time ago Saint's Names of that Day it made Landfall.

Hope this clears up that little problem.

Everyone hang tight this week.

Watch your local weather.

http://www.weather.gov/

Or as I tell everyone.

Google the following

Your City NWS 

Your City Weather

 Example: Atlanta Weather

Or if you see it trending on Twitter...

...it may be too late to prepare.

If you see it on SnapChat it was already there..

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Hope this hit the spot!