UPDATED! Yellow Circle Off Florida 0% From NHC - Tropical Rains Florida and Hawaiian Volcano - Kentucky Derby... Do You Have a Horse in The Race?

So I got back from the store.

The NHC has spoken.

Yellow circle - 0%

I know this makes people's hearts race a little faster today in South Florida where many homes still have blue tarps up on their rooftops. My brother sent me a WhatsApp message asking what the heck was going on. As I said below in the blog from earlier today at some point the NHC may make note of it but explain why they are giving it a zero percent chance of developing. So far... that is what they did at 10:45 AM putting out a Special Tropical Weather Outlook. It's a complicated set up yet very common this time of year and sometimes it leads to Subtropical Storm designation and other times long explanations why they are not naming the area and why they gave it a zero percent chance of development. It's always worth mentioning that sometimes things change so stay tuned and pay attention to your favorite reliable weather sources either on Facebook, Twitter or the TV news. John Morales tweeted this earlier today quoting the discussion from the NHC.

You can find that discussion here.

Or hover your mouse over the yellow X.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Stay tuned . . .

The wrapping up of this tropical rain maker is mesmerizing to watch. It's a process as old as time, especially this time of year, yet it always transfixes us with wonder as we move deeper into May and closer to the Hurricane Season. 

Phil explains it well on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/PhilFerro7

The atmosphere heats up day by day as moisture latent air wets up the atmosphere and down below the ocean gets warmer day by day. At some point the point is reached where these two parameters peak to the point that something tropical could start spinning and get designation in some form be it a name or an explanation of why advisories were initiated. This time of year it is more likely to get a long explanation of why they were not initiated but a warning that there will be heavy tropical rains. Time will tell and as this time of year is an odd time when they can either become huge washouts that put Miami on the National News showing flooding streets or they can wrap up into very small cyclonic entities with subtropical designation and slide up along the edge of the East Coast of Florida and then linger around the Outer Bank kicking up the surf even more than normal. Time will tell. 

We are all watching. I'm starting my day now by watching www.spaghettimodels.com as I slowly wake up trying to focus in on the many grids of satellite imagery and maps until I get the right feel for what is going on in the tropical world. Zeroing in on what catches my attention the most and then surfing around the web for more details to fill in my overall general picture. The window is there but it is narrow and hard to fit through so keep watching. 

Then @DaDaBuh provides the musical backdrop for my day which is wonderful as I think I finally have the Savage Garden song out of my mind! He's also not afraid to step out on a ledge and take a look at the various possibilities there be they high surf or a slim shot of getting the name Alberto but I'm guessing My Boy Jack probably has better odds of winning the Kentucky Derby. You pick your odds, you go with your gut, you place your bets and sit back and watch what happens on any given Saturday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/04/sports/kentucky-derby-odds-picks.html

On the larger scale TWC is watching the area of tropical rain that is moving en masse towards South Florida after dumping copious amounts of rain on Hispaniola and Cuba. See the definition below and the tweet from TWC as Hurricane Season gets closer day by day.

We can talk on the odds of this getting a name all night long but in the end it's the NHC that makes that call. But we talk, we watch and we wait and we are still crazy after all these years. Crazy about weather ;) and music and tropical discussion.

As for Ye Olde Kentucky Derby....

Rain is in the forecast.

As for Hawaii somethings gotta give as the heat builds up and then when the ground shakes, rattles and rolls the lava starts to flow. Hawaii is in the zone for Earthquakes and Miami and WPB stick out into the Tropical Atlantic almost daring some named storm to come and blow them away. One way or the other you better start preparing for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Do NOT be misled by discussion online about the waters being cooler than normal in the MDR and worry more about how warm the water is close in along the SE coast as Mike will always remind you online that home grown action can spin up fast when you live in Florida so don't get confused by the sound bites or click bait!

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps. Looks a lot like Clark Kent stalking Lois Lane here or is Lois Lane doing what she does on purpose to get Clark Kent's attention? Hmnnn Hard to say. Happy May 4th or #Maythe4thBeWithYouDay