Updated! 2 AM Orange Circle up to 60% for GOM Trouble. September TS Florence - Caribbean Area Up to 50% - EURO Sticks by her Man w Landfall Near Louisiana. Florence Hugs the South Side of the NHC Forecast Cone.

60% odds in the 5 day.

You can see the early semblance of it trying to...

...pull itself together.

There's more there going on than yesterday.

Unfortunately can't say the same for Florence.

Looks weaker tonight.

Convection waning.

Dry air to her NW hampering her.

We'd like her to intensify.

Ups the odds of her staying lower...

...and getting further to the West.

Note convection in the wave behind Flo.

Over time that dry air is being drawn down.

Towards Flo... 

Image on the top the beginning of the loop.

Picture at the bottom.. end of loop.

*  *  *

She's not exactly a ridge buster currently.

We will see down the road how it goes.

I think she looked better earlier as seen below.

Tropical Storm Florence.

I like the night time image of her.

You can see better down into her core.

Structure.

Compact inside a larger envelope of moisture.

What might be Gordon off the N coast of Cuba.

If Gordon doesn't form in the Atlantic ...

...and this just becomes a TD.

Seems only the EURO knows for sure.

Euro model consistent in it's support

And the cone for Florence.

Understand where Florence is on Thursday is important.

Is it down near 20 N (current bottom of the cone)

Or up near 26 N (current top of the cone)

You can extrapolate movement from that point.

We won't know for a while.

As I said on Friday....

...they keep inching the cone to the left..

Or actually more to the South.

More westward movement ....

It's a complicated set up in that when the wind shear is low the water is not that warm. Where the water is warmer the wind shear is higher. This is not forecast to be a Hurricane. I'm pretty sure she'd rather be a hurricane and if she was a hurricane than busting into the High Pressure Ridge would be more believable. Alas Florence remains a runner up, a nice looking tropical storm so far.

Brief Saturday evening update on Tropical Storm Florence and the wave in the Caribbean with a 50% chance of developing and moving up into the Gulf of Mexico making landfall around Louisiana as a weak, wet system that moves West into Texas moving very slowly and dumping much rain. There are also a group of possible storms developing later in the forecast period as strong, viable waves move off of Africa into a friendlier environment than the earlier waves found. I'll do a long update Sunday morning. Just marking time. For those who celebrate the Jewish Sabbath as I do it's worth noting Saturday Night is some extra day in the calendar, very awake and refreshed in ways and ready to start the day again but it's late at night in the summertime. Raleigh is not Miami where restaurants stay open late, kosher ones, and there's a plethora to do so I'm looping loops of Florence and wondering on what the next few days may bring.

Here's Florence cruising along above.

Give it a few days and you get here...

This coming Wednesday IF the EURO is correct.

Florence below the high.

A small closed low by Louisiana

Below is Florence as a stronger system.

You can see a weakness in the high develops.

Florence on Saturday reaches the edge of the high.

Note the high is fluid between now and then...

...much can happen.

This is only a model.

Note the waves behind Florence....

The question remains how strong is the high at that point.

Does it snap back into place.

Does it open up a wider path for Florence to take.

The difference is Flo being an out to sea storm.

Or a possible problem along the East Coat.

Maybe just a surf maker ... 

Now if Flo was a hurricane....

...I'd be a bigger believer in a Fish Storm.

Flo might have some tricks up it's sleeve.

Note also following the EURO here.

Whatever hits Louisiana....

... lingers around the Texas coastline.

A real rainmaker is possible

That's a lot of rain.

Even as a wet Tropical Depression.

A lot of rain.

Long range models above

All signs point to a busy time in the tropics.

Hello September.

I'll update Sunday Morning.

September 1st, 2018

Hurricane Season comes to life...

... as per Climo.

A "normal" year in ways.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

(did you really think I was going to do EWF

Times have changed.....)