Tropical Storm Gordon Forms... No Longer Just PTC7. SEVEN HOVERING OVER MIAMI & SOUTH FL.. NHC & PTC7 ... Long Range Discussion on Florence and How the Fish Menu May Be Pulled For BBQ. East Coast Long Range Threat. Nola & GOM Has Watches but... Miami Does Not. NWS Watches & Warnings UP

This is why we love Mike.

He's always on top of it.

Hypocrisy never looks good on Gov. Officials.

You can name a storm without recon when you want to..

...but not over Miami??

Will update with full package.

Leaving this up as it needed to be said.

Please refer to new blog post with more info.

*** 

BREAKING NEWS

Tropical Storm Gordon.

NHC made a call.......

Will update with complete package soon.

Please read why waiting at 8 was ... silly.

Close by no cigar.

Still PTC7 at 8 AM.

They need recon.............

Stand out on the balcony at AOML

Hard to see currently in Biscayne Bay.

Make a call.

I'll make a call.

I'm just gonna call it SEVEN today.

Most Miami Mets could make that call...

Waiting on recon............

But not the NHC.

Yet they upgrade often w/o recon.

It's something about Miami.

Really.

For some reason out of an abundance of caution they hoist watches for Louisiana when a system isn't even present and it's so far out many models don't even support the development of a named storm. However if a tropical depression is hovering over Miami the NHC holds off and waits until it is officially past Miami before putting an name on it. Now days we have "Potential Tropical Cyclone 7" as a name and if anyone can't figure out what that means they obviously don't know how to speak English and don't know how to put that into a Google Translator. It may look stupid PTC7 (being honest) but when you say Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 it is as clear as... the circulation that is closing off and coming into South Florida on it's way to the Gulf of Mexico where watches are already posted. But we have watches and warnings up from the NWS so it's okay. Thank God really for the local mets that cover the coverage area and explain the dangers present even without an official watch or warning.

There's the Green Turtle View.

The Miami Teal Blue View.

There's the STAY INSIDE TODAY view.

Let's just call it what it is.

Tropical Depression 7.

Drop the initials.

It should be Gordon soon.

For now let's call it SEVEN

Where is SEVEN going?

Today's Blog is a matter of perspective.

IF I was in Miami right now I'd probably be nuts.

I'd probably be ranting.

I'd be pointing out the banding.

I'm just pointing out the obvious.

And then there's Earthnull.

The circular bands on radar.

What seems to be a closed system on Earthnull.

Do we really have to have the forecast justify?

NHC says it forms further West.

Later today.

Seriously you need to send recon into this?

Stick out your thumb on a beach in Key Biscayne.

I'm pretty sure this isn't that hard to figure.

But the forecast says later today.

Looks closed to me.

Never scare the tourists.

Unless they are five days away in New Orleans.

NHC will stick by it's forecast.

Miamians are used to rain....

...what's the big deal?

As for Florence.

I'm watching it carefully.

It's where I said it would be days ago.

I never bought the Fish Menu.

Fish is still on the Menu..

...put it's beginning to look like BBQ

These are long range models.

Things change often.

The EURO has been very consistent with this scenario.

Well after the early FISH discussion.

It's been meat and potatoes ever since.

East Carolina or VA BBQ?

Hurricane Tracker App is great.

They show the models.

But they are careful with their words.

This is the "ensemble" model.

Basically Florence could go anywhere...

...but if she stays weak she most likely will continue West.

Now would be a good time for a cold front.

No strong front and no lock on "out to sea"

Florence is your classic late bloomer.

Gets to warmer water and she can explode.

Everything is heating up online now.

You can smell the napalm in the air this morning...

...on the Internet.

Anyone who has ever been burned by a Cane Forecast...

...is watching intently.

In truth today's a new day, yet the EURO is showing what everyone knew it would show. A possible landfall or glancing blow along the East Coast. You can only extrapolate so much with a hurricane trapped under a ridge heading for coast in the long term models. To add o the confusion there is a parade of wanna be hurricanes, many remaining weak yet remaining on some of the models keeping us all in suspense along the hurricane coast. Looks a lot like a carousel in motion. But remember when one horse goes up, one goes down while some don't go anywhere. Energy needs to flow, only in 2017 did they all develop, so take those multiple storms on the models with lots of grains of salt and wait to see which ones pan out. Kind of like trying to choose which horse you want to sit on at the carousel.

This was where we left off...

The above image was in yesterday's post.

Now we are here.

More than a week away.

EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT.

You can't add 8 + 1 and not get 9.

The math needs to change in the short term first.

As long as FLO keeps going WNW steady... 

..and the ridge is there.

We end up here.

Official NHC Track at 5 AM.

What do we do?

Keep watching.

Publix has good buy 1 get 1 specials.

Many items good for hurricane supplies.

Of course if you are in Miami....

...just hunker down and wait it out.

But there are more coming behind this one...

http://weeklyad.publix.com/publix

www.spaghettimodels.com

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

I'll update later today...

...when the NHC has more to say.