Update Monday Morning! 4 Tornadoes in Tampa Area Confirmed by NWS. Election Day Mother Nature Voting so ... IF You Didn't Vote Early Watch Your Weather Apps For Timing on Storms. Mike Covers Tornadoes in Tampa on Facebook Live.... Watch as it Moves On Shore and Mike Goes in Search of His Umbrella That Was Gone With the Wind. Storm Chasing in Florida... Gets Hairy and Crazy Fast!

Watches for today above.

Watch the rest of the South go into Warning mode tomorrow.

Say it ain't so....

Bad weather on Election Day?

Yup. 

I voted early... 

I'll update this later on Monday afternoon.

I want to see how a few models play out.

Watch the satellite loops and get a better feel for timing.

Note the presence of deep moisture in the GOM

As it lines up and connects with the front.

Provides more fuel.

Warm, tropical energy meeting a cold front.

Could have power outages.

Severe weather.

Again NWS updates watches and warnings in real time.

So go to your most trusted source for local weather.

Find your city in the link below.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/localweather

www.spaghettimodels.com has a huge array of graphics.

If you are voting tomorrow you might want to start there.

He does more than just Tropical Weather.

Speaking of tropical weather...

I'll write more on that soon.

Models last week kept showing weak development.

That feature does show up...

..however the NHC is not going with it.

When weather ramps up...

..it tends to ramp up across the board.

There MIGHT be something to watch.

Time will tell.

Either way...

If you didn't do the deed...

DO IT!

Go Vote Tuesday!!

Now a look at Storm Chasing ...

..and Mike's Tornado in Oldsmar in Tampa Bay area.

The tornado that chased Mike!

In the beginning of Mike's video...

...you have your typical squall line.

The water turns this green gray color.

That's never good.

Then the colors become deeper.

There's this point when the sky turns purple...

...the water is frothy grayish green.

When things are about to pop.

Note the waves further out from shore.

After a nice chit chat with a neighbor...

..who heard the weather siren go off...

And decided to also go take a look.

Mike begins to run for cover.

You can see the "cloud" changing shape here.

Basically it's turning into a waterspout...

Funnel Cloud... 

Transforming....

'

Then all hell breaks loose live on Facebook Live.

That's why they call it Facebook Live.. duh.

Then the signal got messy.

So did Mike...

Though he handled it very well.

Scared but streaming as long as he could.

Note below the mess afterwards.

Trees down here and there.

Trash cans went flying in the wind.

So did Mike's shoes and umbrella.

Lord knows what happened to his energy drink...

And there's his tornado.

Mike being a bit of a practical joker...

..probably some people didn't believe him.

Here's the warning... 

... put up in real time.

http://www.fox13news.com/news/local-news/cleanup-begins-after-storms-

cause-damage-down-trees

And here's Mike's Facebook Live link to the coverage from beginning to end.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/videos/770634906612153/

Absolutely love it. Video Mike took on Friday when a squall line was coming into the Oldsmar area in a park where he is used to chasing storms. This is obviously the first time a storm chased Mike and he recorded it live on air or about as live on air as you can get on Facebook Live. There's got to be a way to get that on Youtube.

See the news coverage of the tornadoes. At least four tornadoes touched down.



It would be easy to say fast forward to about ten minutes in, but without watching the weather slowly coming in and advance towards land it's hard to really appreciate how fast things can get crazy when you are out there waiting for it to ... well ...get crazy. Been there...done that ...though not in Oldsmar. I'd take a good guess that one of my Great Uncles has been there as my family moved from Key West in the 1800s to Tampa around the turn of the last century to the Miami area in the 1930s My Uncle helped develop Anna Maria Island and parts of Holmes Beach and loved life on the water and watching storms. Some things are genetic and karmic at the same time, but let's get back to Mike. Smiling, love it really. I've been down in the Keys with my brother chasing storms and seen squall lines that looked uglier than that or from my perspective more beautiful but didn't produce a tornado and we usually got to safe cover before the line washed over us. That's really the only way to describe that sort of rain storm as it washes over you like one big wave and you feel as if you have been tossed into a drive through car wash but without the car...

When things got crazy Mike was actually lifted up and his flip flops went flying in the wind. I'm pretty sure Jimmy Buffett needs to write a song about this... Anyone round here know Jimmy Buffett? That would make one fun, heck of a song to write. His umbrella took off faster than the wicked witch of the west went swirling up into the Twister and now that I'm thinking on it... how did stay on that bike in a Twister pedaling along ... oh right......Hollywood.

This was the middle of the afternoon in July.

When weather gets nasty everything gets dark fast.

2014 Hurricane Arthur offshore Long Island.

When a strong band came through..

So know that when you are chasing things like this can really happen. Good to have a safe spot when you see hail moving in on you...which my daughter and I did not have when we were in New York in the bands of Hurricane Arthur. We walked down through a park on a spit of land that looks across at JFL where the planes were grounded and suddenly something got "funny" in the water and Dina being quick realized it was hail whereas I was taking pictures in awe of the dark clouds obscuring the view of Manhattan. She insisted we leave as in "NOW" and we did and we sort of raced back through the park to the car where we chased the squall line a bit more down near Long Beach where she grabbed some great pictures and we walked around inspecting some post Hurricane Sandy construction. Turns out later we heard there was severe hail in the area. I really would liked to have gotten those pictures... but I digress.

We were here...........before we had to relocate because of the large hail coming down in the bay.

The plane is by JFK, it was grounded.

The discoloration in the water near land...

...was hail falling, bouncing in the water.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayswater_Point_State_Park

There's nothing like weather. Really nothing like it and it's unpredictable in that tornadoes can spin up without any watches or warnings especially in Florida where a sudden waterspout decides to become a landlubber and tears up a park or a house or anything it wants to on it's way somewhere else.

So yeah that happened. Funny as I'm going to be in New York this coming weekend with Dina who is chasing her 3 year old son more these days than weather, though she took some incredible video driving through the back roads colored with fall foliage ablaze in the sunshine.

Below is a pic I took with my brother and one my brother took of me. I'm wearing a Hurricane City tee shirt :)

Actually I remember that line.

We were oceanside and took cover near a hotel.

Lots of funnel clouds that day.

Some Asian tourists stood with us...

..we were excited, they were terrified.

This picture was taken from just under an overhang.

At the tip that juts out past the pool near the ocean.

That's Florida for you.......

One minute it's all aqua, turquoise and sunny.

Twenty minutes later it can be black and white and stormy.

And dark........very dark as the storm moves in.

I think I'm going to leave this up as a stand alone blog, easier to find and more fun to look back on.

Up late watching the clock turn back. Seriously, I had a horrible headache Saturday afternoon and I ended up sleeping for about five hours. I didn't sleep the headache off but I got my evening sleep a bit early. Going to sleep again now, now that the headache is gone and I'm smiling. I just might watch the video again just to laugh. And speaking of weather......the weather has turned cold again in Raleigh and though we missed the wild weather both New York and Florida had today (including a storm that took apart an Amazon building under construction in Maryland) we are headed into peak of the season leaf watching so I don't mind missing a storm for once. Hopefully later today on Sunday I'll get some nice pictures and do a full post on this week's weather and my thoughts on the tropics later on Sunday evening. For now I have a small fake fire going in little heater and the AC is off and so is the ceiling fan tonight! Brrr... Florida girls up north in NORTH Carolina get cold fast :)

Hope y'all turned your clocks back if you still have one or two of those great old radio clocks that my father loved and I still use. Amazingly everything breaks excepts those clocks.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... And a big thank you to Mike for being Mike!

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/videos/770634906612153/

Tropical Storm Gordon Forms... No Longer Just PTC7. SEVEN HOVERING OVER MIAMI & SOUTH FL.. NHC & PTC7 ... Long Range Discussion on Florence and How the Fish Menu May Be Pulled For BBQ. East Coast Long Range Threat. Nola & GOM Has Watches but... Miami Does Not. NWS Watches & Warnings UP

This is why we love Mike.

He's always on top of it.

Hypocrisy never looks good on Gov. Officials.

You can name a storm without recon when you want to..

...but not over Miami??

Will update with full package.

Leaving this up as it needed to be said.

Please refer to new blog post with more info.

*** 

BREAKING NEWS

Tropical Storm Gordon.

NHC made a call.......

Will update with complete package soon.

Please read why waiting at 8 was ... silly.

Close by no cigar.

Still PTC7 at 8 AM.

They need recon.............

Stand out on the balcony at AOML

Hard to see currently in Biscayne Bay.

Make a call.

I'll make a call.

I'm just gonna call it SEVEN today.

Most Miami Mets could make that call...

Waiting on recon............

But not the NHC.

Yet they upgrade often w/o recon.

It's something about Miami.

Really.

For some reason out of an abundance of caution they hoist watches for Louisiana when a system isn't even present and it's so far out many models don't even support the development of a named storm. However if a tropical depression is hovering over Miami the NHC holds off and waits until it is officially past Miami before putting an name on it. Now days we have "Potential Tropical Cyclone 7" as a name and if anyone can't figure out what that means they obviously don't know how to speak English and don't know how to put that into a Google Translator. It may look stupid PTC7 (being honest) but when you say Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 it is as clear as... the circulation that is closing off and coming into South Florida on it's way to the Gulf of Mexico where watches are already posted. But we have watches and warnings up from the NWS so it's okay. Thank God really for the local mets that cover the coverage area and explain the dangers present even without an official watch or warning.

There's the Green Turtle View.

The Miami Teal Blue View.

There's the STAY INSIDE TODAY view.

Let's just call it what it is.

Tropical Depression 7.

Drop the initials.

It should be Gordon soon.

For now let's call it SEVEN

Where is SEVEN going?

Today's Blog is a matter of perspective.

IF I was in Miami right now I'd probably be nuts.

I'd probably be ranting.

I'd be pointing out the banding.

I'm just pointing out the obvious.

And then there's Earthnull.

The circular bands on radar.

What seems to be a closed system on Earthnull.

Do we really have to have the forecast justify?

NHC says it forms further West.

Later today.

Seriously you need to send recon into this?

Stick out your thumb on a beach in Key Biscayne.

I'm pretty sure this isn't that hard to figure.

But the forecast says later today.

Looks closed to me.

Never scare the tourists.

Unless they are five days away in New Orleans.

NHC will stick by it's forecast.

Miamians are used to rain....

...what's the big deal?

As for Florence.

I'm watching it carefully.

It's where I said it would be days ago.

I never bought the Fish Menu.

Fish is still on the Menu..

...put it's beginning to look like BBQ

These are long range models.

Things change often.

The EURO has been very consistent with this scenario.

Well after the early FISH discussion.

It's been meat and potatoes ever since.

East Carolina or VA BBQ?

Hurricane Tracker App is great.

They show the models.

But they are careful with their words.

This is the "ensemble" model.

Basically Florence could go anywhere...

...but if she stays weak she most likely will continue West.

Now would be a good time for a cold front.

No strong front and no lock on "out to sea"

Florence is your classic late bloomer.

Gets to warmer water and she can explode.

Everything is heating up online now.

You can smell the napalm in the air this morning...

...on the Internet.

Anyone who has ever been burned by a Cane Forecast...

...is watching intently.

In truth today's a new day, yet the EURO is showing what everyone knew it would show. A possible landfall or glancing blow along the East Coast. You can only extrapolate so much with a hurricane trapped under a ridge heading for coast in the long term models. To add o the confusion there is a parade of wanna be hurricanes, many remaining weak yet remaining on some of the models keeping us all in suspense along the hurricane coast. Looks a lot like a carousel in motion. But remember when one horse goes up, one goes down while some don't go anywhere. Energy needs to flow, only in 2017 did they all develop, so take those multiple storms on the models with lots of grains of salt and wait to see which ones pan out. Kind of like trying to choose which horse you want to sit on at the carousel.

This was where we left off...

The above image was in yesterday's post.

Now we are here.

More than a week away.

EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT.

You can't add 8 + 1 and not get 9.

The math needs to change in the short term first.

As long as FLO keeps going WNW steady... 

..and the ridge is there.

We end up here.

Official NHC Track at 5 AM.

What do we do?

Keep watching.

Publix has good buy 1 get 1 specials.

Many items good for hurricane supplies.

Of course if you are in Miami....

...just hunker down and wait it out.

But there are more coming behind this one...

http://weeklyad.publix.com/publix

www.spaghettimodels.com

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

I'll update later today...

...when the NHC has more to say.