A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, November 15, 2019
Coastal Low with Tropical Energy ... Feels Like Winter... November. What Will This Winter Bring I Wonder...
Monday. New Week. New Models. Possible Snow Storm in the Wings. Keep Watching for it to ... Come Together
Quick post on the upcoming week and the week that was and how it's all connected. It's been warm and mild (though rainy) in the Carolinas this January despite every person who predicted a colder than normal winter we have yet to see it really take control. In November we had an early winter storm that much like an early May hurricane got everyone excited while many know that early May storms happen in slow hurricane seasons. Time will tell as always. There's a lot to deal with as there are two Jet Streams and they need to come together and hook up with Arctic Air to really get us there.
Yesterday it was hot, sunny and flirting with a high of 70 degrees so being the good Capricorn I am I figure if life gives you lemons make pink lemonade and enjoy it. So we went to the beach, Wrightsville Beach in particular as it's the closest beach to Raleigh and there's much to do in Wilmington while there. There is nothing like a Carolina Beach really and I've seen a lot of beaches from Seattle to LA to Maine to Miami. They are peaceful, family oriented more than most and filled with a sense of peace and a beauty all their own. The beach in the off season is always preferable to the busiest days of summer. Except for a spattering of blue tarps (not many) and the sea oats being thinned out you couldn't tell Florence had ever been there.... go figure. Florence was more a stuck rain storm and flooding event than Michael that sandblasted North Florida beaches leaving them looking as if a nuclear bomb went off in places from storm surge and wicked winds. It will take North Florida a long time to look as if Michael had never been there. I will say I noticed the hanging moss took quite a hit in Wilmington much the way Matthew pruned the hanging moss in Savannah. Life goes on at the beach.
There I am looking for a shell I liked.
Planted there, not moving til I found it.
I took off the leggings and put them back on.
Wrapped a sweater around me in case I needed it.
The pier is windier and colder than the beach.
Nuff said. It was warm but the wind was chilly.
The water was cold but not as cold as usual in January.
I walked barefoot in and out of the water.
It was glorious.
On Twitter people argued a lot it seems.
I missed it as I was at the beach.......
When there is no winter in winter...
...weather people get a little nuts.
When it's hurricane season and it's slow...
... people get very nasty and fight.
Weather people need weather like....
...I seem to need to see the ocean.
Luckily the models are tossing us possibilities.
It's going to be Mid January this weekend.
If not now when?
A voice I trust very much.
Before I lived here I followed him for hurricanes.
He's good, very good.
Further North you go the better chance of snow.
As always Raleigh is on the edge.
Always and forever ...
...seriously!
So I look to see what Allan Huffman has to say..
And Cranky brings it all together as usual.
He knows winter storms.
Does well with hurricanes but well...
...he is more in the heart of the winter world than me.
It's a winter thing you buy eggs and bread and milk.
French Toast for Snow Storms in the Carolinas.
Will it all come together?
Keep watching.
Time will tell.
Til then keep watching the models, enjoy real weather discussion on Twitter for a change and the possibility that we may be able to wear any new winter clothes or boots before we have to put them away for summer.
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps....and until then another Allan is right we will be watching the models and what all of our favorite weather people have to say. Speaking of models I'll be spending a whole lot of time on www.spaghettimodels.com
For one of my favorite people round here.... Yeah I want weather, I want weather bad and this winter has been a bit crazy and the crazier the better when it comes to weather so yeah... I want a crazy, Carolina winter snow storm and to talk endlessly about it online. And, I'll be in NYC in late January so figure I can see snow either way then .... (seen long range models) and early February in Florida so need winter weather NOW in January but either way...... grateful for short sleeves weather in January and the beautiful beach... but love a good ending with snow falling ;) Got home in time to collapse into bed under the covers cause when the sun goes down in the Carolinas in Winter it does get cold and watch the Golden Globes. Yay! :)
Showing this image below as it shows how close the storm is positioned now and where her hurricane force winds are (dark muddy red) just touching the coast and the wider mustard of Tropical Storm force winds. The Hurricane Warnings go SC to the border of NC/VA. In truth it's a map drawn to give you an idea and understand hurricane force winds do not stop at a border and often extend North into VA along the beaches in squalls. Florence has always been top heavy and her bottom Southern side has always had difficulties maintaining itself. Even the eye wall on the Southern side last night was breached by dry air, but it mixed the dry air out and bounced back. Note in the short term the coast between NC and VA is getting pounded, in the long term she is forecast to crawl across the lower part of NC and through the upper parts of SC (or possibly jaunt down the coast a bit to see Myrtle Beach) and weather will go EVERYWHERE. So the map is a guide it is not a set in stone deity to believe beyond anything else. And, it changes in real time so if you go to sleep at 10 PM because you saw the cone at 5 PM you may miss any changes in strength or direction at 11 PM when they make major changes. Don't wake up and act upset you didn't think that was happening because you missed the 11 PM. Weather happens in real time and the NHC adjusts by degrees as needed. She can speed up suddenly or come to a grinding halt and move tediously slow dumping rain over the same spot for over 24 hours.
As for me I'm organizing (something Capricorns do often) and putting things in places I can find them in case the power goes out. It's possible, I have to know that, but I'm hoping we don't lose power. I cooked dinner for Friday night today in case I don't have power tomorrow or time. I cleaned, did laundry and moved some things away from windows in case I have a problem... But I'm not expecting a problem. But you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I'm giving you an example. Keep your phones plugged in as much as possible at full power in case your power goes out and keep your power sticks full and somewhere you can find them. Flashlights, candles, medications all should be somewhere in an interior room where everyone can easily find them. Those are the basics if you live inland vs down at the coast where the tide has already risen and is flooding towns, beaches, stores and 2/3 of Emerald Isle is already out of power. Emerald Isle is a thin sliver of land South of Morehead.. it has a rough hurricane history and after Hazel and then after Fran in the quiet years people built homes like they never thought a hurricane would make landfall that strong again. I have friends who have homes there, it's their favorite place in the world. To me I prefer Morehead, Atlantic Beach and New Bern...and walking on the beach in Wrightsville and then going into Wilmington for dinner and to walk along the river and watch the sunset over the Cape Fear River. This storm is a watershed moment in my life as it shows me how much of a Carolinian I have become over the last ten years. Go Panthers!
Close up maps of the two areas currently under assault from Hurricane Florence.
This is what you need the battery operated radio for..
..to stay in touch with the world
Some thoughts from Twitter.
Always curious on what Cranky has to say..
So true what he said below.
The rest is mostly thoughts on my life in Raleigh today.
I'll be busy today preparing for what may be tomorrow.
I'll update later today after the 5 PM advisory package.
Dark and beautiful in Raleigh today.
Hurricane Florence now visible on our local radar and noticeable in ways in the air via the clouds, beautiful steady breeze and depending on where you live rain or drizzle, and rising water from the bays and inlets here that we call "sound" or "bouge" along the coast. To be clear I do not live by the coast, I live inland in the "Piedmont" where the land begins to rise but not near the mountains. Raleigh is the "in between" land, you can drive down to the coast for the day or up to the mountains though both can be a long drive depending on where you are going. In Raleigh this morning it's apparent the Hurricane is knocking on the door of North Carolina as the sky is heavily cloaked in dark gray clouds streaming in from the East and Southeast. There is a steady, beautiful breeze but not strong yet and drizzle is often seen in the air. I'm not used to that as in Miami you get heavy bands early on out in front of the storm, but here there is drizzle in the air and it looks as if it is about to rain but it just keeps fine mist drizzling.
So my thoughts are on past storms and communities of people who lived here in the 1800s and woke up to this weather and knowing it's not a normal pattern as cold fronts come in from the North and West and summer rain comes in dark and steady with thunder and lightning they had to know there was a big blow down by the coast somewhere. It must have been scary and worrisome as many people in Raleigh had family and business contacts in New Bern (the original capital of NC) and without cellphones or phones they had no way of knowing if their loved ones were safe. They also had no way of knowing how bad it was going to get in Raleigh as sometimes inland bound hurricanes came and tore trees out by their roots and knocked down fences, ruined crops and destroyed businesses; usually they don't make it up to this part of the state but when they do it's a long term mess. What did old settlers really know I wonder?
In Raleigh people are trying to squeeze work in today before we know for sure what tomorrow will be like. Parents are out with kids at parks especially near rivers doing what parents do before the storm... sharing a memory with their children of going out before the storm comes in.
The father walked the grandmother slowly down to the river.
The mother and the two little girls ran ahead.
And then they unpacked some food and sat a bit.
Raleigh is and always was a river city.
I was upset we didn't drive down to the ocean. I like to see the ocean before a storm to know what the storm is really like but I didn't want to get in the way of evacuation routes. When you have seen as many hurricanes as I have you can tell from the waves, surf and "the feel" exactly how strong the storm really is or how bad or easy it may be. Trust me on this... Sandy passed by Miami but it had a mean, cruel look and Floyd was one of the wildest oceans I have ever seen in Miami as it slid by us well forecast to by the NHC on it's way to creaming North Carolina. Andrew on Miami Beach was powerful, the sound of the ocean roaring like a jet's engine left on and without waver. So we went up to the Neuse River where we often go especially to do Tashlich a custom Jews have during this High Holiday period; any running water with fish it will do but we like to go up to the dam by the river where we often have picnics. Yes, we have enough gas for the short trip and yes it was worth it as it was very inspiring to me. Raleigh is here because of the river and on a quiet, gray day I could almost picture it as it looked years ago near where the mill was and where people lived before they dammed up the river creating Falls Lake. We could not drive up to the top for the view as the park was closed however people were walking up there around the closed signs. I had priorities, not hiking uphill for a long walk today. So we stayed here a bit.
So now I'm home.
This blog is powered by a Pumpkin Spice Soy Milk Frappe.
Sweet, delicious and perfect for the moment.
Note Starbucks is closing at 6 PM in Raleigh today.
They will assess the situation for tomorrow...
...later today.
The Dollar Store and Harris Teeter are open..
I'm home organizing, watching TWC where on air meteorologists are standing by my beaches and places we spend our time at often. Local news is on as well and I've got things to do. I'll be on Twitter all day but will do a long update tonight after the 5 PM Advisory package comes in and the next set of model runs come out. It's an odd feeling on air mets I know...at my beaches I love, watching from afar. I used to chase storms with others in Florida where we stood near the networks did their live shots before the storm... they often get moved up and down the coast depending on where the storm goes. Chasers move around a lot obviously chasing the storm, sharing important valuable data and taking video that is often studied after the storm for evaluation purposes.
So far not much has changed. Florence is weaker in strength, though still wide in size and still moving NW a bit slower but steady at 10 MPH. Will she stall? Where will she stall? Where will she make landfall? We know the 'who" we aren't sure on the when or where. Journalism 101 never goes totally away. Then does she decide to go for a jaunt down to Charleston as many up here do after spending the night in Myrtle Beach? People are prone to say "you wanna drive on down to Charleston?" and that's what we are wondering today regarding Florence's future track will she go West or slide south of West a bit? I'm not set on her going that far South but time will tell. Either way her storm surge spreads out like a huge fan in all directions as it approaches the coast so up in Virginia the tide is high and down in Myrtle Beach the water is rising as well. New Bern at the juncture of two rivers (one of my favorite cities) in the path of storm surge and they are prepared and waiting for it. Fayetteville may see more of the storm than many thought and I mean a good amount of wind not just rising water and evacuees filling up the motels from Down East. Down East is what we in North Carolina call the beach and bogue communities down east there by the beach. Core Sound and Bouge Banks.. inlets, bays with odd historical names familiar now to me and others who live in North Carolina.
Good graphic from a wise meteorologist.
Followed him for more years than I want to say.
Note all the tracks take this along the NC/SC border.
Most tracks avoid inland NC..
Time will tell.
We are waiting to see and prepared.
This is more realistic than the last few days.
Less of a dip and more of a due Westward movement.
If you read previous blogs you know I spoke on this often.
I think it's more likely it will go due West...
...vs SW but Florence will show us her end game soon.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
