Rainy Mother's Day Likely in Miami. Hurricane Preparation. Caribbean Could Spawn the 1st Atlantic System of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Invest 9OE Missing it's Chance for Development.

Round up of Thursday tropical information.

In the EPAC Invest 90E is losing it's opportunity for upgrade to designated status. Really far West to even be talking about tropical development, but we have such great tools today to analyze systems not making waves on the beaches of Honduras.

The models show the possibilities, the satellite imagery shows us what is going on and time will tell whether a wave or an Invest grabs that opportunity. As I said yesterday and the day before it had a small window of opportunity. And that window is slip, slip, slipping away.

As for the Atlantic side of the Basin...

Hmnnn.....

The models they be spinning tales. 

Tropical tales 9 or 10 days away.

Mike keeps it simple.

Most of the reliable models (yeah I said that...) show development coming up out of the Caribbean moving towards Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are reliable in that it's better working with them than without them; more often right than wrong. The models in fact are only showing in movement frame by frame what we are currently seeing watching on the satellite imagery. At the very tail end of what seems like a long thin frontal boundary (more an axis) an impulse is stuck like glue in the deep Caribbean being fed by tropical energy coming off of South America. That's a common set up this time of year and often what starts there forms near the Yucatan heading into the Gulf of Mexico in late May or early June.  The reason we go on and on and on about watching the tail end of frontal boundaries is they are hugely responsible for most May and early June tropical systems. If you look through this very long list for May development you will see the pattern of storms forming in the Bahamas near Florida or South near Cuba and Jamaica moving North towards Florida.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off-season_Atlantic_hurricanes

Nothing there to see specifically.

It's the pattern supported by models.

Putting the above in motion below:

Watch that loop above a bit.

You see the pattern evolving.

And, when I say evolving, I mean it's an evolution in real time slowly over the next week to ten days. First the rains begin in South Florida as a mix of tropical energy and then the annual start of the rainy season aka May Monsoons begin as some cosmic joke on Mother's Day this year. May Monsoons only need heat and with climo locked in they will show up every afternoon around 3 PM in the Miami area as children are trying to get to their carpool while deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes are happening all around them. Life in Miami in May... no one ever said it would be easy. This isn't a what do the models say this is what happens in May in Miami and most of South Florida.

As for something really developing in the tropics Phil Ferro says it best in that it needs to be monitored. Nothing may actually form and get a name, however the conditions are ripe for development. Moisture is there and will remain there, all you need is for pressures to lower and that will happen as moisture lingers over time. Much depends on shear forecasts and actual development or lessening of wind shear in the area that allows for those storms to build, maintain and begin to wrap into cyclonic development. Less wind shear and chances for development go up. More wind shear and chances for development go down. We just keep watching and while we watch the models will continue to spew forth information that will be assessed and discussed until the next model run comes out and we do it all over again.

As he so eloquently and playfully says you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see this pattern and the flow. Where we go from here no one really knows but we are monitoring the area for possible early season development. Usually May storms are weak and good for ramping up attention to the start of the Hurricane Season, but on rare occasions in the past hurricanes have happened. I can't promise you a rose or a rainbow but I can promise you that you will see rain.

Keep monitoring.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @BobbiStorm 

Ps. A storms happen. Keep monitoring. Keep working on your preparation. You might want to go shopping to Walmart on Sunday in Miami as it may be an indoor kind of day if the rain forecast verifies. Think Hurricane Supplies.