Rainy Mother's Day Likely in Miami. Hurricane Preparation. Caribbean Could Spawn the 1st Atlantic System of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Invest 9OE Missing it's Chance for Development.

Round up of Thursday tropical information.

In the EPAC Invest 90E is losing it's opportunity for upgrade to designated status. Really far West to even be talking about tropical development, but we have such great tools today to analyze systems not making waves on the beaches of Honduras.

The models show the possibilities, the satellite imagery shows us what is going on and time will tell whether a wave or an Invest grabs that opportunity. As I said yesterday and the day before it had a small window of opportunity. And that window is slip, slip, slipping away.

As for the Atlantic side of the Basin...

Hmnnn.....

The models they be spinning tales. 

Tropical tales 9 or 10 days away.

Mike keeps it simple.

Most of the reliable models (yeah I said that...) show development coming up out of the Caribbean moving towards Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are reliable in that it's better working with them than without them; more often right than wrong. The models in fact are only showing in movement frame by frame what we are currently seeing watching on the satellite imagery. At the very tail end of what seems like a long thin frontal boundary (more an axis) an impulse is stuck like glue in the deep Caribbean being fed by tropical energy coming off of South America. That's a common set up this time of year and often what starts there forms near the Yucatan heading into the Gulf of Mexico in late May or early June.  The reason we go on and on and on about watching the tail end of frontal boundaries is they are hugely responsible for most May and early June tropical systems. If you look through this very long list for May development you will see the pattern of storms forming in the Bahamas near Florida or South near Cuba and Jamaica moving North towards Florida.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off-season_Atlantic_hurricanes

Nothing there to see specifically.

It's the pattern supported by models.

Putting the above in motion below:

Watch that loop above a bit.

You see the pattern evolving.

And, when I say evolving, I mean it's an evolution in real time slowly over the next week to ten days. First the rains begin in South Florida as a mix of tropical energy and then the annual start of the rainy season aka May Monsoons begin as some cosmic joke on Mother's Day this year. May Monsoons only need heat and with climo locked in they will show up every afternoon around 3 PM in the Miami area as children are trying to get to their carpool while deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes are happening all around them. Life in Miami in May... no one ever said it would be easy. This isn't a what do the models say this is what happens in May in Miami and most of South Florida.

As for something really developing in the tropics Phil Ferro says it best in that it needs to be monitored. Nothing may actually form and get a name, however the conditions are ripe for development. Moisture is there and will remain there, all you need is for pressures to lower and that will happen as moisture lingers over time. Much depends on shear forecasts and actual development or lessening of wind shear in the area that allows for those storms to build, maintain and begin to wrap into cyclonic development. Less wind shear and chances for development go up. More wind shear and chances for development go down. We just keep watching and while we watch the models will continue to spew forth information that will be assessed and discussed until the next model run comes out and we do it all over again.

As he so eloquently and playfully says you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see this pattern and the flow. Where we go from here no one really knows but we are monitoring the area for possible early season development. Usually May storms are weak and good for ramping up attention to the start of the Hurricane Season, but on rare occasions in the past hurricanes have happened. I can't promise you a rose or a rainbow but I can promise you that you will see rain.

Keep monitoring.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @BobbiStorm 

Ps. A storms happen. Keep monitoring. Keep working on your preparation. You might want to go shopping to Walmart on Sunday in Miami as it may be an indoor kind of day if the rain forecast verifies. Think Hurricane Supplies.

UPDATED.. LANDFALL Lower FL Keys Near FAT ALBERT BLIMP LOCATION CUDJOE, SUGARLOAF, RAMROD KEY IRMA CAT 4 MAJOR HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL IN LOWER KEYS

LANDFALL CUDJOE KEY

Will explain more about Cudjoe later.

Not dense population.

Less than Marathon or KW

Those beautiful Keys you see 

Old video but cloudy day.

Much discussion in the Keys why it's called that.

Some say "cousin Joe" was farming there.

Years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cudjoe_Key,_Florida

http://www.radomes.org/museum/showsite.php?site=Cudjoe+Key+AFS,+FL

It's near the blimp known as Fat Albert.

You see tethered as you drive to Key West.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/wVBOXUvpxMw

GREAT VIDEO CLICK ON LINK ABOVE

That's where Irma made landfall.

Where does Irma go next.

Note the EYE moves NNW

The EYE WOBBLES

So the wobble can be NE or N temporarily.

Why it's so hard to track the eye perfectly.

Note saying they got lucky.

But the more heavily populated areas got lucky

Keep reading below.

I showed before where Cudjoe was..

My kids are getting slammed hard in the bands.

Far to the N of Irma.

Just a brush with Irma.

But a brush with a cat 4 is stronger

Than a brush with a cat 1 ..trust me.

See the map for coordinates above.

Cudjoe Key

Sugarloaf Key getting eye.

Generally least populated Keys.

Note the map above.

Click on it.

Red mark IRMA

Making landfall clearly.

Looks like landfall to me

Making landfall as I type.

As Dave Schwartz used to say...

When the air goes down.

Other side bounces UP.

Watch Irma go NNW soon N

As dry air pushing down on left side.

Very easy to see here.

Radar View.

spaghettimodels.com

As daylight moved over Irma.

Wide view.

Cone less important right now.

It will move within the cone.

Note the eye moving above.

Erratically.

More impt info from the Discussion.

The eye can be erratic.

It moves smooth over time.

But the eye wobbles within.

Impossible to say who gets it later.

Let's focus on NOW.

Florida Keys.

Impt part of NHC discussion.

I want people to pass this link around.

PLEASE.

nhc.noaa.gov

Not 1 person I spoke to last night...

..goes to the NHC page.

They find every page online... 

...for food, games, nonsense.

But they don't go there ...

Frustrating.

Go to that page.

There is so much information.

From storm surge to wind arrival.

See info below.

I know I'm preaching to the choir if you are here.

Make sure your friends and family have it.

Please.

Hard to keep up with the reports coming in. Most my friends in North Miami Beach that had power lost it after a strong band came through and knocked out whatever power they had and many lost earlier. So the hurricane has arrived bringing with variations of destruction depending on how far North and East you live from the Lower Florida Keys. Further up you have trees down, some debris but power. Then more trees down, less power. Goes like that in increments the whole way across Key South Florida. Here and there extreme debris and then light debris. Down in the Florida Keys this is another whole ballgame.

Florida Keys from Marathon to Key West is currently taking the brunt of this Major Hurricane. From the 7 Mile Bridge (for those of you lucky enough to do the drive) down to Key West they are getting battered in slow motion. As of 8 PM it's still hasn't picked up speed.

Key West on the edge of the worst; still getting a lashing.  Eye will soon be across the Florida Keys. Understand a lot of small homes, apartment buildings on the lower keys. Snowbirds, people who live there all year and a lot of people who work in Key West but cannot live in Key West. Those places are really going to get battered and I hope people got out to safety. I know many stayed and those areas will be awash in storm surge. Some homes built up high for that reason but this is a slow moving strong hurricane and those homes will be battered a long time by waves in the storm surge. This is not a fast moving hurricane. I  have said this before and I'll say it again it's a matter of degrees of direction and the forward speed or lack of it is the real story.. the real problem here.

Most my kids are under a Tornado Warning. It expires soon but may be replaced by another. They are safe from the hurricane or in their case Tropical Storm. As bad, noisy as it sounds now this is basically what we call in Miami a "tree trimmer" hurricane and other than erratic damage there should be no structural damage. When I say Miami I mean all the way up into Pembroke Pines, Walnut Creek and up though Broward. Some localized flooding near water; but as noisy as it sounds and even with the power out this is nothing compared to what is going on in the Florida Keys and could go on in West and Southwest Florida.

The Florida Keys will have heavy damage. I'll write

Phil Ferro just said it well, it's a wall of water moving through the air; he is right as even the winds are as fluid as the water coming down from the bands. The air has so much latent energy, moisture and it's a moving river of air I'll add at high speeds. You add the high forward speed to the actual wind speed and it makes it stronger and seem more dramatic. My grandchildren have stopped asking "when is it getting here" cause now they can hear it.

I'll be updating later at the 11 AM advisory and I'll be adding information all day. But, telling you the best thing you can do is watch live online the coverage with the two channels below. I have TWC mostly on mute unless something I want to know is being talked about. The real story, the local story is online live and anyone who evacuated and everyone who has loved ones there can watch it unfold live. Most of your friends and family cannot, as they have lost power. But you can... and it's live on radios there as well. That's how we listened to Bryan Norcross. Remember as bad as it is there... the hurricane is in the Florida Keys far away.

TAMPA
http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/watch-live.html

Miami and Keys
http://wsvn.com/on-air-live-stream/

I'll be updating off and on nonstop so check back often. Truth is now is the time to breathe, watch, hunker down, pray, keep your phone plugged in if you have power and if power goes out don't talk but text. Keep the phones as powered as you can as its going to be a long, long time before you get power again.

Besos BobbiStorm
Back again soon...

PS Again those in Miami ... you are getting a brush with a hurricane. You are getting Tropical Storm force winds and hurricane gusts. Down in the Florida Keys it is a LIFE and DEATH drama. And that drama will move up the coast of SW Florida. Let's hope Irma stays West of the coastline after ripping through the Florida Keys.  Mike from Spaghetti Models lives in Oldsmar ... he's hoping, praying and watching carefully.