Tropical Trouble for Memorial Day Weekend in Florida? Possible. When's It Gonna Stop Raining? Rain Coming Up From Tropics All the Way to NE.

Going to keep this morning simple. Feel free to read the last few blogs if you want a longer read. People from Florida to New England keep asking me when it's going to stop raining. Everyone wants rain until the rain doesn't stop after a half an hour. The truth is that until something develops in the tropics or something comes along to shut off the moisture valve out of the tropics the flow will continue and every day brings the chance of heavy rain and often heavier in the late afternoon after the sun added her part into the juiced up atmosphere and with low shear the thunderstorms are going to climb and climb until they burst. See this is the issue here with weather, unless some strong front pushes through or the moisture in the Caribbean wraps into a specific entity the valve is open and allowing summertime like humidity into our atmosphere on the East Coast.

My WhatsApp feed yesterday was one long feed filled with shots of clouds and thunderstorms yet I was in Raleigh and my kids are in South Florida but we were under the same blanket of severe storms and dramatic, dark imagery. If you look at the loop below you will see where all of this wild weather is coming from and why we will continue being in that hot, juicy flow for a while.

Follow the yellow brick road.

Or in this case the bright orange road.

East Coast is lit up like the Emerald City below.

Note the 5 Day bottom right gride.

Rain, heavy rain.

Localized flooding probable.

I do want to add here IF a tropical system develops as the GFS and Euro indicate it might than someone could get a good dose of flooding sort of rain on top of already soggy soil from days of rain before the actual arrival of a possible Tropical Storm Alberto. I don't really see a hurricane forming here, though some models indicate that but the development of a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm is very likely. When you get that many models consistently showing something you have to take it seriously. When the moisture is visible and the impulse "down there" doesn't shut off and die out but continues to pump moisture into an area where the water is warm enough and shear may be lessening as indicated by the models.  Look at the models this way ... if they scream "SHARK" you can be sure there is definitely a big fish in the water. Just because a model screams hurricane doesn't mean you will get a hurricane but you will most likely get something.

Note the darker more dramatic picture was taken in Miami, but those summertime rain clouds in Raleigh yesterday were nothing to laugh at as the rain came down wild and crazy and I love it.

Where's it all coming from?

Down below.

Keep this loop below in mind.

As you continue to read.

Larry Cosgrove rarely screams shark and rarely does he go out on a limb, however he does show long term trends in his incredibly wonderful discussion. Woke up this morning to this and even without coffee I knew things were heating up today in tropical discussion. I've learned over time to trust him greatly and time tells it really does.

You can follow Larry on Facebook and sign up for his weekly emails. He's awesome. And, speaking of awesome you can follow Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com has a Facebook Page and this morning he went live with discussion of a possible Memorial Day Weekend Tropical Something. I say "something" because he made it clear the models are showing many solutions and time will tell just what we do get. As for me I'm planning on being in South Florida around Memorial Day Weekend and the start of the Hurricane Season so that works for me. Stay tuned.

Gotta tell you lying here in bed with the laptop up resting on my knees writing, looping and listening to Mike's voice as he goes on and on insisting he's going off while looking at more loops is better than coffee. Love listening to Mike's voice while he chats. He "keeps it real" and is not boring. Have a wonderful day and keep that rain coat or umbrella handy unless you like to dance in the rain like I do.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter