Hurricane History - Early Season Gulf of Mexico Storms - Subtropical Storms - Alberto in Historical Perspective.

Alberto.

Looking more tropical than yesterday.

Navy Cone from NRL site.

Note it shows the track so far. 

Models as of late Saturday Night.

NAM (for fun)

GFS

EURO

Note these models have been changing SLIGHTLY all day in correlation with the actual movement or reformation of the center of Alberto. Alberto had several centers and the NHC was forced all day to try and play keep up with the ebb and flow of energy from one center to another until they relocated Alberto to it's new position near the stronger center. This is very common with storms such as Alberto in this part of the Gulf of Mexico. If they do not come into the GOM like a bull charging towards the Louisiana coast but are trying to form with early season shear and dry air over marginal water the formation process is slow, ugly yet productive. It usually produces a storm in the 50 to 60 MPH range that makes landfall sooner rather than later; on rare occasions they suddenly strengthen to hurricane force. There were several models earlier that showed that possibility so again they erred on the side of caution and that's a good thing. In today's fast paced world people are alerted immediately of changes in forecasts.  The 3 models shown above all have the same basic destination somewhere near Destin Florida ... some further West towards Mobile Bay and others closer to Pensacola Bay with a few outliers further East. Currently Alberto is moving NNE but he is forecast to swing back some towards the left and it's hard to say exactly which beach gets his participation on Memorial Day Weekend. Add in the actual angle of the coast on the Panhandle and every degree can mean a big difference down the road.

The point of this post is to take a look at some Hurricane History and to see how Alberto compares and contrasts to similar storms. I looked at the first storm of the season in years that had Tropical Storms or Hurricanes that approached this part of the coast from Mobile Bay to the Big Bend of Florida. Granted most the storms were later in the year even though they were the first storm of the year. Adding in Earl as an Extra Credit sort of storm as he was one of the first storms that I can remember that was named when the presentation looked so bad and that had more multiple center's then Alberto.

I'm offline on Saturday as I keep the Jewish Sabbath in my own way and take a break from trying to keep up with Twitter, models, satellite imagery and updating the blog as well as just the every day hustle and bustle of life; it works for me. One of the things I enjoy is that I have time to think and go through some of the many books I have on hurricane history as well as history of Florida and it's many cities in general. My specialty is history and specifically Hurricane History. There is something different about going through a book, holding it and turning the pages; turning back and forth, feeling the pages between your fingers and not being distracted by Tweeting or being on WhatsApp or SnapChat or getting a phone call from one my kids asking why I didn't respond to a WhatsApp message. Holding a book on Florida Hurricanes or a compilation of Hurricane Historic Tracks and being in a bubble where no one is going to disturb you is heaven like in ways.

Before I show the years with similar storms may I add that back when in the not so distant past we did not name Subtropical Storms and it took more than a modeling consensus to upgrade a tropical disturbance the way Alberto was upgraded suddenly Friday morning by the NHC. I get it in that it's a holiday weekend, people are headed for the beach in many instances storms such as this one have historical presidents and have been known to spin up fast just as they make landfall. Several years back I went to a program in Miami at a AMS meeting for a presentation where Bill Read would be as he was the new Director at the Hurricane Center. I was early and ended up setting up the food with Neal Dorst and while there I got into an interesting conversation with Bill Read. As he was from that neck of the woods most familiar with those GOM Hurricanes I barely paid attention to growing up in Miami he gave me a different perspective. In reality there is not enough time to properly warn small beach towns along the long coast of the Central Gulf of Mexico to the Panhandle of Florida the way there is time to warn Miami and Key West of an approaching CV Hurricane. Long tracking Hurricanes spend days moving towards our side of the world. In places along the Texas coast and the Panhandle of Florida a weak, disorganized system with multiple centers can suddenly wrap up, just off shore over very warm water and there is little time to warn the local population.  Alberto is a case in point and an illustration of why the NHC has upped their game plan when dealing with such systems especially on a 3 day Memorial Day Weekend.

1901 shown above.

Mid June. 

1902 shown below.

Mid June.

Deja Vu back to back landfalls.

1919

1919 would be a good analog storm if we pretended Alberto JUST formed where it is now. Slightly different orientation but I'm looking at landfall location and again this was the first storm in early July of the 1919 Hurricane Season.

Late May 1953

Now that's a Looper.

The always memorable Hurricane Alma

1966

1994 Alberto.

Almost the same track.

What is in a name really?

Early in Sept 1998

Earl Above.

Alberto Below.

Earl was one of the first storms that I remember such discussion, out right slander and accusations leveled at the NHC for upgrading what seemed to be a big, amorphous mess with too many multiple centers to count. Earl took it's time forming, later in the year in September, in the same way that Alberto is doing. Earl was a September storm with much warmer water and different steering currents, however they both had multiple centers and no real clarity as far a center of circulation. There have been many more since Earl but Earl always stands out in my mind. Being September Earl actually reached Hurricane Status (Cat 2) without a clear cut eye or picture perfect structure at any time, yet it was a Hurricane and caused problems, 3 people died in connection with Hurricane Earl. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(1998)

The truth is the Hurricane History books are filled with complex systems such as Alberto that while not pretty carried with them the inherent dangers of a property destruction, beach erosion and worst of all loss of life. In 1972 Hurricane Agnes an early season storm ended up causing one of the worst floods in our history as the immense amount of moisture got pulled North across a good part of the Eastern US. 

A very similar track later in June.

Note Alpha has been added to the records.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/rpibook-final04.pdf

There has been an ongoing reanalysis of past hurricane seasons where storms are sometimes added in or deleted with knowledge we have now to try and get the best accuracy we can for analog storms and history we can learn from when forecasting today's storms and future storms.  You can Google a bit and look for whatever years you are most interested in. Personally, I'm interested in the 1835 Hurricane that did epic damage to the Miami shoreline, mangroves and was said to be responsible for Norris Cut near Virginia Key near where the HRD building is and other related NOAA offices are as well as where I heard Dr. Bill Read and William Gray speak often. I miss Bill Gray; we all miss him. There was no one like him. You can read back to my early days of blogging where I was mostly writing for myself and a few close friends. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2004/09/hurricane-ivan-and-1835-hurricanes.html

I want more information on the 1835 Hurricane. Today Miami has expanded it's business and economic base to the South Side of the Miami River and the area most severely impacted by the 1835 Hurricane that being a direct hit from the South near the Miami River and South Bayshore Drive would deal a severe blow to Miami and endanger way more people than were there in 1835 during the Seminole Indian Wars.

Interesting day looking through my Hurricane Stuff.

While I was sitting home reading through my old Hurricane Books and various Hurricane trivial things others were doing this online as they sifted through history looking for analog storms to Alberto. You can see how on the money Anthony Siciliano @AMSweather on Twitter was pointing to the recent Tropical Storm Colin in 2016 and Barry on 2007. Compare and contrast is what we do when studying hurricanes from the past with storms of the present. Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. We have learned so much and our models have gotten way better than when they were originally sure a weak Andrew was going to catch the weak late August cold front in 1992 and head away from South Florida. But as good as we get, we learn from out mistakes and we get better and we keep trying to get to the point where people do not die in hurricanes or tropical storms on Memorial Day Weekend and have the most time available to them to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... A point of reference here regarding Hurricane Alma is that after Miami dealt with Hurricane Donna in 1960 and again in 1964 we had Cleo and then in 1965 we had Betsy....  to a small obsessed student of weather it seemed Miami would get a hurricane every year. That's not how it works and alas Alma got away. I was a very little girl who was very annoyed that we were not getting Alma. I know kids... My father tried to cheer me up and told me he'd take me to the Drive In to see a new movie he thought I'd like. I liked Haley Mills and she was in a movie called The Trouble with Angels. I think he wanted to go more than I did and probably wanted any excuse to get out of the house. My mother was in prime "Hurricane Mode" and they got into a big fight and he insisted I'd be fine just a few blocks from the house at the local Drive In Movie Theater. For the younger set that's like sitting out in your car watching a movie on Netflix. I digress. The point is that I was very excited we were going to the movies in a Hurricane ... I think we had a Tropical Storm Watch or earlier in the day we may have had a Tropical Storm Warning. This was as close to changing a storm as I was getting at that age. I don't remember much about the movie to be honest, but I remember watching THROUGH REALLY HEAVY SHEETS OF RAIN and the tall Australian Pine Trees swaying with the wind. Who cares if we could barely see the screen or the sound from the speaker was crappy? I was out in stormy conditions watching a movie and whatever effects we were getting from strong feeder bands. Eventually a few years later I watched it on TV and saw the parts I must have missed or maybe I was watching the pine trees sway and sheets of rain go flying sideways past the windshield of our car. 

Funny I don't remember this scene... you'd think they'd have had a better trailer. But oh I remember the rain and the wind, it was wonderful!