Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, May 25, 2018

UPDATED! SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS From Invest 90L- Trying to Reason With Hurricane Season on Memorial Day Weekend.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Has Formed.
Officially at 11 AM
NHC will issue advisories.
Closed circulation shown below.

Subtropical Storm Alberto will be officially on the maps as of 11 AM with cones and other relevant information. Refer to their site for all the official information. I'll update this blog early in the afternoon after the next model runs and hopefully after getting information from recon.  Note the morning visible of Alberto below.

Wider view below.

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Again this is a lop sided system.
Subtropical = oblong 
Currently the wxr is off to the right
NW to be exact.

Note the image below screen shot from Mike's Facebook Live where he showed possible points of landfall as per the models. Note the stronger colors to the right of the point of landfall. This may make landfall give or take around Mobile Bay, but the weather in the Florida Panhandle is going to be memorable on Memorial Day Weekend. If you can get some partying in tomorrow go for it as the weather will go downhill closer to Monday.

I'll be back with all the cones and whistles later.
Again refer to the NHC and Spaghetti Models.

I'm out and about shopping and doing things so I can be back here in a little while with updated information. For now they are now hoisting their flag early and it's a good call and it was time to do it. Let's see what Recon finds when they fly down into Alberto. 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun whether you are ready for it or not!

Feel free to keep reading as the information is still timely. We just officially have what was already being called Alberto by most of us. 

* * *

Holding at 90% over the next 2 days.
The 5 day has now become the 2 day.

Note that the winds are beginning to tighten up.
Stronger winds closer to strongest convection.

INVEST 90L (note I shaded that in the picture above in blue) is slowly setting sail leaving land behind. Once out over land the Hurricane Hunters will fly down and try to gather more information about Invest 90L to see what is really going on with it. That data they will gather will be added into the next few model runs and in theory... the models should get a better handle on where it's ultimate destination is in the end game. It's obvious it's North bound into the Gulf of Mexico but will it sail steadily North or will it hook a bit to the left as most models indicate it will? Is it possible it will loop or stall? That is a possibility too. When watching a deep, diving cold front it is easier to forecast how a storm will be influenced by it, but when you are watching a digging upper level feature that will clash with a developing subtropical or tropical system it's harder to analyze the battle going on between the two as the set up is fluid and not carved in stone. 

Again as I wrote yesterday, "Alberto" is like a pirate and often a pirate ship would hoist several different flags but whichever flag it was flying it was still a pirate. Invest 90L aka Alberto aka "huge gale system" is still an area of stormy weather with strong winds, high waves, much convection and it will bring with it high tides as well as beach and boating dangers. Flooding is a definite possibility as the area it is traveling towards has been inundated with rain for the last week or more depending on the particular area. You know the saying... "when it rains it pours" and that applies here. We don't name "huge Gale systems" so the NHC will probably upgrade it to "Subtropical Storm" and no not even TWC names Gale Systems.  Sorry it's going to wash out many people's Memorial Day Plans. Always good to have a Plan B or options. 

There is something about Memorial Day and Labor Day that brings out both the crazy people and tropical storms that threaten to throw a wet blanket on people hoping to party at the beach. Usually Memorial Day in Miami (for example) is a messy mix of Monsoon Weather and Weak Tropical Waves adding to the drama of the daily tropical down bursts and added tourists looking to party. Cities along the Gulf Coast are used to dealing with systems that are weak but a pain in the proverbial ass.  I feel bad for those losing money either on vacation deals they can't cancel and also the local beach vendors who are usually the back bone of America's Mom and Pop stores that service the beach goers. But it's not that uncommon and this is the time of year that if it's going to happen it will happen in this area. 

Today the beaches are beautiful and the weather tomorrow will be beautiful, but day by day the weather will degrade and people will be dealing with whatever Alberto becomes. Today is that day to try and figure out what you will do this weekend and early into next weekend if the moisture from what should be Alberto comes your way. Check out the movies and indoor events, binge on Netflix or make a Netflix Party with your friends and binge together. Shop for school supplies or hurricane supplies or finish your Spring Cleaning. Yes it is still officially Spring.

I will update the blog later today after the next model run and after recon goes in (which it will probably do unless they bail out and try again tomorrow morning) and update this blog with actual model data and deeper discussion. What I want to leave with you this morning is the slow, tenuous birth of what most likely will be Alberto is in the end stages, Mother Nature is cranky and really does not want to hear you ask one more time "so how are we doing? is today the day?" because she's tired but Alberto should appear over the next 2 days as we are at a 90% chance already for the next 24 chances. I'm not much of a gambler, but I'd take those odds.  Note the paragraph below and read it over a few times as it is the best advice anyone can give you. Check with your local authorities about the weather associated with Invest 90L aka "Alberto" and plan accordingly. Check with your local authorities often as these type of storms change often in development; multiple centers battle each other for control of the storm as well as the distant squalls far from the actual coordinates as "subtropical storms" have weather far removed from the center... think of them like equal opportunity employers in that everyone gets to go to work to deal with wild weather.

If you want to run the models.
They are on the top left hand below.

See most of the models are coming together.
NHC waits like a sly fox.
Waiting until they have the cone drawn for them.
You can almost draw the cone yourself.

The only real problem with Subtropical Storms is the cone for movement of the center is drawn, but the weather goes everywhere. The local National Weather Service offices are tasked with providing up to the minute watches and warnings for their local coverage areas. That means every town along the coast (and it's a lotta coast) is receiving information sent out over multiple sources be they online, on air or through social media. But like the proverbial tree in the forest ... someone needs to tune in and pay attention to hear the watches and warnings.  In today's world there is no reason for people to not know bad weather is coming unless they have totally ignored it as your phone beeps, your television screen shows it and your WhatsApp groups go crazy. Two young boys were killed in Hurricane Andrew when they took their small but nice boat out as early forecasts showed Hurricane Andrew catching a front and missing South Florida. Things changed fast and at the same time Andrew changed directions Andrew went through rapid development and it was too late for those two young boys. This is not Hurricane Andrew but it is a storm and all storms carry inherent dangers especially going into a 3 day weekend and especially when many may not understand the dangers of a large, tilted, messy subtropical storm that seems far out in the Gulf of Mexico away from your particular harbor.  Please plan accordingly and check with them often. Like produce that is best when it is grown locally in season.... no one covers your local weather better than the NWS. Those dangers at the beach include rip tides that come out of nowhere so please watch the watches and warnings carefully and again they change in real time. 

I suggest you follow and read posts written by Cranky Weatherman on Twitter. He explains the many factors affecting the development of Invest 90L into Alberto. It's a long read I warn you but a great read. Note there are many online holding out the possibility Alberto finds a sweet spot close in to the coast with minimal shear and extremely warm water and allows Alberto to flirt with hurricane strength. There are also opinions online that Alberto could start swimming loops in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and as Alberto did not watch the segment on TWC on how to survive in a flood and falls apart in the GOM a victim to rapidly changing, unfavorable conditions. Understand both are possible, but only the NHC makes that call so when reading various discussion know it's possible but too soon to tell. Know the difference between shooting the breeze online and a map that the NHC will put out with directions on how to read the map in the longer discussion. Do not just go to the NHC for the pictures!

I just want to point out the bigger problem here is the weather that we already have going on that exacerbates the set up for the landfall of Alberto. There are flooding watches out now for #rain today in parts of Alabama far inland and this has nothing to do with Invest 90L down by the Yucatan. But, it's also that rain and associated low pressure that will help suck Alberto North towards that part of the Gulf of Mexico.

Stay tuned.

Currently Invest 90L is still battling shear and dry air to it's West and NW and the only real steering current is a weak, slowly diving trough. Your usual suspects of Upper Level Lows are out there as well as dry air, shear and marginal water temperatures until you get close in off shore some of the most beautiful beaches and coastline in the country. Please read below the many ways Alberto will be much like a pirate flying different flags but just remember it's a storm and it will have much stormy weather.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Thanks for your patience and please read the previous post where I explain why we should view Invest 90L as a pirate of sorts and again go to the movies.... this is Memorial Day Weekend and Lord knows the movies are dying for some of your attention...or watch Netfllix ;) and remember the beach isn't going anywhere and you have the rest of the summer to enjoy the beach or the pool or the lake. And a vacation at the beach on a cloudy day is still a vacation at the beach... enjoy the breeze, the view and keep checking with your local NWS. 

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