Caribbean Area 20% in 5 Day Say NHC. The Hype Begins. Models Give Us Clues. Convection is Strong. Shear Weakening. Spaghetti Models All Over It... I'm Making Spaghetti for Dinner. Is this Beryl? Stay Tuned.

20% Yellow Chances.

5 day.

10% in 2 Day.

Satellite images below.

Now we wait and watch.

Watch for any kinks in the wind barbs.

https://earth.nullschool.net

Shear is obviously decreasing.

Shear was forecast to decrease.

So we are right on time here.

Bud is still spinning in the EPAC

Watching Carib for any kink in wind flow.

Watch this loop for any signs...

...of it trying to wrap up in anyway.

Everyone's watching.

There is talk that MJO is on the way.

Providing a supportive set up.

Shear is lessening.

ULL vs High to it's North.

A similar set up as Alberto.

But different ....

It's a concentrated area of convection.

Look behind the system.

It's like it's carrying it's own moisture feed.

Shear is present or we'd worry.

My bottom line on this is it's a watch and wait situation that can produce a number of different sort of systems each with their own possible problems. If it forms close to land, crosses the Yucatan or is inhibited by land for formation until after he moves off the Yucatan that would be a different system than one that forms slowly and slides through the Yucatan Channel. A poorly developed system scurrying up along the coast of Mexico and Texas produces one sort of storm. One that forms further to the East over water longer produces a different sort of storm. The water to the North of the Yucatan Channel is warmer than where this 20% area to watch is currently trying to maintain convection this afternoon. Note the tongue of warmer water stretching South towards our area that is up for consideration to be the next named system in the Atlantic. 

Location of formation is everything.

Cranky made some salient comments in his blog that reads like the Great American Meteorological Novel making my blog seem more like Cliff Notes on the Great American Meteorological Novel. Cranky likes to give the impression he's "cranky" and well I do come across a bit perky or bubbly at times but in reality I'm pretty jaded. His concerns are well articulated and concurrent with my own reasoning with regard to this area of interesting convection. I really could care less this afternoon if the GFS or EURO weigh in differently in their next model run. The problem with models is that they show us many things and they can be translated and read differently and often something important is ignored as the person viewing the model is only looking for support of their own idea. When you begin a scientific experiment with a stubborn point of view you ignore the evidence that may be in front of you because it doesn't support your hypothesis. I'm not a model hugger but I do love to watch them curiously. "Through it all model interpretation is important"  said Cranky and he is 100% accurate. 

The 7 Day Loop that is visible on www.spaghettimodels.com as well as some other helpful long range graphics show that this system is already drawn onto the US maps as a closed Low making landfall in Texas. That may or may not happen but it's an early indication which way the wind is blowing and worth keeping in the back of your mind as you go about life today and tomorrow. In about 36 to 48 hours we should have a better idea of what is really going to happen. An image from that loop is shown below. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Lastly there's been much talk on SAL.

SAL is a feature that holds center stage in June and July.

Bursts of SAL are projected across the ocean.

SAL makes it to Key West, South Beach and beyond

Note it oozes into Texas and up to the Carolinas.

It hovers over South Florida often.

Asthmatics deal with it.

Photographers get tropical sunsets.

My son in Walnut Creek Florida took this picture.

Last night the sky suddenly turned hot pink.

That's because SAL is present.

Stay tuned.

I said to count 7 to 10 days after Aletta formed.

Add in Bud's presence so count a week from there.

Bud is moving rapidly towards Baja.

Shear is lessening in the Carib.

The MJO is moving into the Carib.

Climo adds a vote for development.

I'd say we could definitely get a TD at the least.

Possibly even Beryl will develop.

Either way the rain could be epic.

They do need rain.

But no one wants that much at once.

Hype will be evident all week.

Take those Tweets with a grain of salt.

Tweet Margaritas so to speak.

Another good site is www.crownweather.com

It's a pay site but worth it if you need to know...

https://www.bonfire.com/spaghetti-lover/

I'm making Spaghetti tonight.

The idea came to me while on Mike's site today.

My husband loves Spaghetti.

I love Spaghetti Models.

Dinner is a compromise ;)

Stay tuned, 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter