Wednesday, Day 17 Since Being Home Since My Son Grounded Me ;) Florida Gov Finally Issues Shelter in Place. What Is Normal Anymore?

True Confessions Time.

Yes, I watch him every morning.

I had issues with him in the beginning.

He definitely got with the program.

He's been a calm, reasonable voice.

"No one knows for sure when this will be over"

So true.

People hate the unknown....

...people hate living in limbo.

I've been home for 17 days.

And, honestly I'm fine.

I can deal with reading and being online.

Love researching, writing, cooking.

My oldest son grounded me.

I suffer from asthma....

...I'm prone to bronchitis.

So I have to be more careful.

Otherwise.. I'm fine.

Glad my last trip was Seattle... 

It was a beautiful trip.

But now I'm home, staying in.

Doing my thing.

We all have to do what we have to do...

That's the reality of right now.

This minute, this day, this week.

As for me I'm blogging...

...blogging as in writing a long blog.

Note shortly I will talk on the tropics again.

We are 2 months until Hurricane Season.

Hate to mention that but you can't hide forever.

As I'm typing I'm multi-tasking obviously as I'm watching the Governor with the sound down turning it up here and there when he says something very compelling; his images and graphs kind of tell the story without the sound. I'm listening and trying to pay attention to a class I have on the phone with friends in Crown Heights on Chassidus and we are saying prayers for people we know who are in the hospital battling the most severe effects of Covid-19. And we are staying connected as best as we can during a time that isn't an easy time yet it's a time that as long as we have our health we can cope with not running around to all the places we are so used to running around to when living a normal life. And, yet this has become slowly normal too even though it's not a normal we wished for but we are stuck with for the time being. 

I have a friend that posted this on Facebook the other day and he's not one to post very often, but when he has something to say he always nails it. This is so true and it's something really worth thinking on while we are secluded from our normal routine to realize that my ex-husband mentioned recently that despite living in busy NYC he can suddenly hear the sounds of birds and Spring vs the sounds of traffic that drown out the beauty of the world that hear often in Raleigh.  And, yet even here in Raleigh on my quiet street I can still here some traffic off in the distance usually but not anymore. Some people like the sound of traffic but when you realize you don't hear it suddenly it somehow hits home. In Wuhan the ever present smog and pollution disappeared and blue skies were seen for the first time in no one can remember when after they shut down the area to fight the illness that has traveled around the world.

Things I've learned or remembered or thought on over the last month or so.

When Romaine Lettuce begins to go bad... you can cut the darker part off and it lasts longer.

When you cook a huge turkey breast, you can save the large bones and use them to make soup.

Old Coffee in the Coffeemaker makes great Iced Coffee once put in the fridge.

Pick up the phone and call a friend and hear her voice rather than type fighting with auto correct.*

Plan out my day carefully because time lately moves fast and when you look up it's 2 PM... 

We've thought back on our lives and remembered the good and made lists of what we'd like to fix.

I really can't wait to go to Myrtle Beach again or sit and talk with a friend at Starbucks.

The list goes on and on.

*My friend and I raised our kids while talking on the phone nonstop all day on a phone with a long cord that was 25 feet long and got caught on dining room chairs, children and toys often. Our kids got used to the fact that we were on the phone nonstop talking about "the school" or hurricanes or projects we were working on for a group called Neshei Chabad that was a Women's Organization. Somehow with all our kids and work responsibilities we were responsible for putting on all the programs in South Florida from classes, trips to visit old people in nursing homes to fundraising fashion shows in mansions on the water with backdrops you see in fashion magazines to cooking for older people who were shut in recently released from the hospital but their children who lived far away called some Rabbi on Miami Beach who called us to ask us if we could send over broth every day because they could not eat solid food yet and yes we did and to be honest looking back I'm proud of the good things we did... while talking on the telephone all day on long corded phones while raising our children. Seems I was born to multi-task. 

Don't get me wrong we were not Saints but we did good deeds and we had a lot of fun laughing at things that happened while trying to get things done as life sometimes just gets in the way in the craziest of ways when you live in Miami. We had planned a large program for the World Premier of a book just being released by an author that many wanted to read with a large meet and greet at a local Synagogue and then a smaller breakfast to discuss raising children to be held outside at a beautiful home someone always lent us by the Bay with a huge lawn to set up chairs and tables and........while arranging this.... after paying for all the things needed Channel 7 News put out a bulletin that there was an Encephalitis Alert and people should wear dark clothes and stay indoors. I think it was 1990... who remembers? We looked at each other in terror than laughed hysterically until we had tears in our eyes. What else could possibly happen next?  Spoiler alert... it was lifted before the night of the large program with 300 people attending and luckily it wasn't hurricane season; life in tropical Miami.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/health/fl-zika-encephalitis-outbreaks-florida-20160812-story.html

I was once sitting at the water's edge in the Florida Keys at a small motel my friend owned watching an Ibis wander through the mangroves, dangling my feet in the water and this huge old plane appeared out of nowhere flying low... very low over where I was sitting enjoying the quiet moment in nature and then I realized it wasn't a scene in some old TV show I used to watch but ... they were spraying mosquito poison everywhere the way they did when I was a little girl before they stopped spraying for mosquitoes all the time because they found out it wasn't much healthier for humans than it was for the mosquitoes that seemed immune to it anyway. When the cars were not covered in mosquito spray with ingredients now outlawed from use they were covered in gritty red African Dust aka SAL and no the Chamber of Commerce in Miami never advertised that when Jackie Gleason said Miami was the Greatest Place on Earth. Life went on..

But we haven't seen anything like this in many moons and generally only seen in the movies. Jim Williams was talking the other day on how similar this is to the movie Contagion. Many online have mentioned that and wondered how that could be. It's easy in that whether you realize it or not people are always and forever researching how to battle Germ Warfare or the accidental release of a germ that is being studied into the general population that is prone to mutating. Really I took two different classes in college on Germ Warfare for my degree in International Relations; one was a compare and contrast on the reality of that occurring vs the release of nuclear materials or a nuclear accident and the other class was in description of the most deadly designed viruses and how it would impact the public both financially and politically. Expanding on that last class the most dangerous was one that would impact the lungs and attack older people thereby taking out the structure and fabric of society both economically and more so politically. Basic classes for people in various fields of study such as International Relations. Haven't seen the movie, it's on my short to do list though my husband did a while back when I was out of town as normally I hate scary movies but this is one I do want to watch.

So my friend who was going shopping anyway bought some groceries for me carefully... brought it here leaving it outside. I watched as she sprayed all the paper bags with disinfectant and we talked from a distance me inside her way outside wearing her mask and gloves and it was good to see her and as she left she said "can't wait for us to be able to just go out to Starbucks and sit and talk" and yeah that would be normal and nice. Then I put the stuff out onto the balcony as it's cool today and tonight, carefully washed down a few products to put away for Passover and there's some lettuce drying on the counter on a towel for my husband's salad. I'm pretty sure I got all the soap off the various produce. Hmnnn Is this normal?

My friend in the hospital went home last night, actually I was friends with her mother and my aunt but now I follow her on Instagram account Busy in Brooklyn where she shares incredible recipes. My friend Devorah Leah who lives in Crown Heights who usually teaches our phone class is still in the hospital but said to be stronger today and hopefully she will be home for Shabbos before Friday Night. Then my daughter sent a message that our friend Yudi's mother in Crown Heights was taken to the hospital and the list goes on. I spoke to my best friend at 2 PM or 2:45 after I got done disinfecting everything and taking a shower and we talked on life and compared notes and well no more long 25 foot cords but still laughing and talking and being honest with each other and that's good.

So from my house to yours... I wish you bananas and strawberry jam and apples and candy and that you and your loved ones live through this and we all get back to sitting at Starbucks talking on life and complaining we don't like the new straws :)

Wednesday, April 1st. 60 days until the hurricane season and I will talk on that soon as I have much to say but I don't want to yell "FIRE!" in a crowded theater which I do feel like talking on how bad the hurricane season could be. Hopefully, by then the curve will have flattened and medication will be found that is 100% effective and we can find a vaccine and we can all get back to hugging and going to parties and sitting at Starbucks taking pictures of our favorite new drink.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Life does go on, it evolves... what's normal changes and then something else become normal. Having to talk holding a phone with a cord (even a 25 foot cord...) kind of tied you down. Then we were online on AOL and we never left the computer because you couldn't take the IM with you. Then we were able to talk on Text Messages so we were able to go to the store and have a more normal life and then.......our phones became our computers and then ...well you get the idea. What is normal changes often but still here typing, writing, thinking out loud and talking to my friends here, there and everywhere.

Good old movie... watched it on TV when I was little on one of those channels that showed old movies over and over and I bet it was great on Broadway. But we can stay home and watch old movies and songs and scenes and plays online while hiding from the world while staying home and staying safe. 

Updated......Monday Morning Flooding in the Mid Atlantic Again. 98L in the North Atlantic... the Hotter than Normal Hot Atlantic ... Models Take it South a Bit...

Satellite image

Monday Morning.

Compare and contrast ....

Tropics are there quietly.

Waiting perhaps...

Or not.

Time will tell.

Everyone speculates.

Time will tell.

Michael Ventrice explains Invest 98L

And some thoughts on the 2018 season.

DaBuh dances to his own tunes.

Where would something go if it developed.

Climo and models are our guide.

Edge goes to Climo always.

Especially in odd years such as this.

Odd you ask?

Twisters at high latitudes not Oklahoma.

Flooding in Mid Atlantic on a regular basis.

Subtropical Storms on the Rampage.

Cranky keeps his priorities straight.

Rather than wonder too much on the tropics..

...or how soon winter will be here.

He lives in today.

Not a James Thurber type it seems...

While we wonder on the tropics.

NJ is flooding.

Pennsylvania often floods.

Maryland watches carefully.

Car dealerships.

Gotta move those cars.

Why are they always located in areas prone to flooding.

Raleigh has this problem as well.

Though they move them fast.

What I want to point out today is really what Cranky is pointing out more than anything else. Mother Nature as we like to call her always finds a way. Air flows from the equator to the poles and other times of year the air flows from the Poles South and sometimes it moves West to East and on some days it moves about so frantically that it looks like it's dancing at a rave with a light show and a pounding techno beat and when air moves that fast like a long run on sentence it's hard for anything in the tropics to get going. And, yet misery goes on and happens around the globe be it from a HaBoob or a Flash Flood or a wild Summer Storm on a dark humid evening. I95 floods just like that...1 2 3 and you can't get out of the left lane and high water is seeping into your car. Sometimes an idyllic afternoon outing on a lake in North Carolina can turn deadly when a storm blows up faster than you can get to shore. Misery is always blamed in hurricanes and natural disasters but it took a year for Ellicott City to rebuild and get halfway back to normal and then Mother Nature did it again.

Many years hurricanes form and go everywhere in the Atlantic but rarely make landfall. Wet tropical storms lumber towards the Gulf Coast causing more havoc than a well developed, small, compact Hurricane would have done. A compact Major Hurricane comes ashore in a nature sanctuary in Texas and everyone jokes that Bret was nothing at all. Other times a tropical depression drowns Houston the way Harvey did last year but on a smaller scale. 

So watch that loop below and note how everything is a bit chaotic this year and surprises will happen while we watch the North Atlantic to see if Ernesto forms there or it's just a Subtropical Depression dancing in circles until some weather feature picks it up and slings it out to sea towards Europe.

Best song to watch this loop by below.

Song of the day.

I heard Aretha Franklin is extremely ill, possibly gravely, and I was going to put up I say a little prayer for you as a song but I really couldn't as I am so not there this morning. I really don't listen to "old" music much and when I do I only think to myself "so I used to listen to this all the time huh?" I may be crazy but I love how music evolves over time. I'm in love with the shape of you... and you in this case means weather, maps and music. Okay I'm also in love with a few people who mean the world to me. So I'll say a little prayer for Aretha and anyone else out there who needs it. But when I hear this song come on above it washes over me like a gentle rain allowing me to enjoy every drop, every beat at one with the world. 

Compare today to last night below.......

Besos BobbiStorm

@Bobbistorm on Twitter if you want to follow me and join in the discussion.

Ps...Oh Philly is flooding. Never count out a hurricane season until late November. Mother Nature usually finds a way to catch our attention at some point and this year it could be at a higher than normal latitude.

Putting this here for a compare and contrast for tomorrow morning.

Note the anomalously warmer than normal water in N Atlantic.

Also note the MDR region is warming up.

So I'll talk on this tomorrow.

You might be reading this Monday.

If so... it's tomorrow.

It will be updated in real time.

It dips down down down...

...then boomerangs back!

Never trust early models.

Then below you can see...

...there's always that one that breaks with the pack.

Let's look at a sat image of 98L

Yes that puff of clouds in the Middle of the N Atlantic is it.

I want you to notice convection in the Caribbean.

Shear remains high but if shear weakens...

Low pressure could form near Florida somewhere.

As they are having tropical downpours every day.

Also note the ITCZ is maintaining convection.

Change is in the air.

Good close ups on satellite imagery below of 98L

I just want to say that you can't really judge what the end result of the Hurricane Season will be from the flurry of high latitude Subtropical Storms going on at present. Even last year during the abundance of MDR hurricanes holding together as they traversed the Atlantic in search of landfall we had Gert up in the Atlantic spinning about. Years ago the NHC did not bother with these storms unless they were intense and on those occasions they tended to be real weather makers. They did not publicly track strong tropical waves or areas of low pressure in the atmosphere and not every small closed low in the MDR (Beryl) nor Upper Level Low was named as was Debby. So to compare now with then is not a level playing field. Often storms were added after the season during a reanalysis of the hurricane season and we never tracked them.

But now days with the tools we have available (see image above) we can track their movement from the NHC or even some bedroom of some kid who has an early obsession with weather and Apps on his iPhone. You really can't compare now and then. It is what it is. Let's see what it is on Monday afternoon.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Mid Atlantic Under the Gun This Year from Wicked Weather. Will A Hurricane Come It's Way Too? Too Soon to Say But Signs From the Past Point to Tropical Trouble.

This is where we are this morning. A big, colorful tropical wave prepares to leave Africa. A suspect area of convection will flare up as the sun gets higher in the sky in the Gulf of Mexico. A long trail of deep tropical moisture runs from Florida up to Canada. The area most under the gun is the Mid Atlantic northward including a good part of the Carolinas. Florida will get more rain than usual from the GOM as it moves about in tandem in flow with the whole shebang that is messy and busy and everyone wants it to go away. It will go away, but it will be replaced with stronger waves and developing storms so are you ready for the Hurricane Season? I'm guessing if you are reading this you are more ready than the Average Joe. Note the white area of convection ahead of the new wave that loops like a leaping dolphin. That will allow this wave to stay alive longer than the last strong wave that tried to flare up just before it rolled onto the coast of South America. 

The rains in Pennsylvania and New York will create havoc and when I say havoc I mean water rescues and property under water and the water is going to keep rolling downstream to the lowest point and then it may keep rolling. Rivers will rise. What starts in PA often ends downstream in DC, Maryland and parts of Virginia. The Mid Atlantic really is in a set up going into the hurricane season that isn't pretty and way too welcoming for any tropical system pushed westward too close to the coast by a large persistent Atlantic High. Note the map below by Cranky of the current set up. The current set up is waiting for a system from Canada to finally move in and rearrange the flow. The problem with this set up is if it hangs around in any way and you throw a tropical marble into that pattern it only brings more trouble to the Mid Atlantic. When I harp on the Mid Atlantic it is because it's not a good set up for them this year, but anywhere along the coast from the GOM to Florida has to watch carefully when the Bermuda High breathes, expanding in then out then in again. Highs do that they remain anchored but they float around a bit near that anchor and every degree it pushes West or East means escape or landfall for a hurricane.

Nothing stays the same though there are commonalities. In the same way that we are young and then we get older, some of us get wiser and some of us don't... the story is in the telling. A young hot looking guy who enjoyed playing sports turns into a fat slob from drinking too much beer and eating too many chips while watching sports and is too tired to get up to go to the fridge to get another beer. His wife who was a hot young thing before she had 3 kids and cut her long blonde hair short because it was easier has to shop at a large size store and wanders in and out of Weight Watchers trying to lose that extra fifty pounds. She gets him the beer, she plays Candy Crush and nibbles on M & Ms which is a far cry from what she used to nibble on back when they met. Life's not bad for the aging happy couple but it's not what it was and neither are they. You think I'm depressed right? Nah.. being playful.

So you have this set up with the High Pressure and Cousin SAL is the hottest guy in town. He blows out hot Saharan Dust lighting up the sunsets in tropical hues and everyone thinks he's their hero. Lord knows we all need heroes. After the 2017 Hurricane Season people will take any hero they can get to go through that again. We grasp at heroes named SAL or "Cooler Water Temps" (It's just a bit cooler? No problem we'll take it!!) or the always popular EL Nino. But no matter how bulked up Cousin SAL is at some point he begins to get tired of dealing with the incessant, insidious tropical waves and he's not getting as much support from his friend "cooler waters" like he did earlier in the season and by late August Cousin Sal becomes a really big sloppy mess. El Nino comes in like the Trojan Horse ready to save the day (a dollar short and way too late by the way) and delivers what could be crappy weather to many parts of the country that will then be blamed on El Nino that goes fast from friend to foe. 

I'm pretty sure that old Homer was probably pretty hot when he was young, I mean his wife is still pretty hot in a Smurfy kind of way with the blue hairdo. But I think you get where I'm going with this in that things evolve and what is on the weather maps today evolves into a bigger problem during late August and early September. I do think in fact we will have something to talk about the first week of August in the Atlantic but either way the area close in that gives us Home Grown could produce a named system or a pain in the rear end no name storm that brings strong weather and more flooding rains to some area along the coast. Keep watching. For now SAL is strong and so is the moisture feed running out of control until some Canadian front pushes down and it being July doesn't help much as it's a bit early for that, however I have leaves on my Maple tree in Raleigh that are beginning to turn yellow so I'm guessing we are just running fast and furious towards Fall this year.

Mid Atlantic. 

Keep it mind.

Today and down the road.

In Raleigh this big beautiful pecan tree came down.

Beautiful house.

Beautiful tree.

Withstood many a hurricane.

But it came down from a strong storm.

Maybe it was tired.

Maybe just the storm was strong.

https://www.wral.com/blast-of-wind-damages-historic-house/17716149/

What is it about people that makes them get crazy hysterical about some one online or leads to road rage when cut off but we cry when we see such a beautiful old tree that came crashing down. Anyway... I suggest you learn the differences in the Flood Watches and Warnings that the NWS puts out so linking to an article below that is worth you taking the time to read. Do you really know what an AREAL FLOOD is or do you think it means it's a real flood? Wrong. Please read especially if you live near a stream that is high or in an area already water logged from recent rains.

http://www.weatherboy.com/different-flood-types-advisories/

Do you really know the differences? Now would be a good time to learn them and be aware of the specifics your area might be dealing with during the next few days while tropical convection keeps being pumped up over a good swath of the East Coast. That said, places out West had flooding today also so it's a lesson everyone needs to learn because even in a desert there is sometimes rain.

Knowledge is power. I say that all the time here and in person and it's true.

I'll be back when there is something to report or to make an update. I'm in pre travel mode as I'm preparing to go back to Florida for a little while for some family happenings and I'm sure the photos in my blog will reflect that change of scenery. Keep smiling, stay alert and enjoy the quiet times if you are not under the gun from wicked rain storms.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Not proofing this so if I made a mistake... sorry and I'll fix it later.

https://www.npr.org/2014/09/19/349621429/the-song-that-never-ends-why-earth-wind-fires-september-sustains Interesting article about a song about the 21st of September... the peak of the Hurricane Season. Will we be tracking??

Ps Using that knowledge you have to know that the Saharan Dust will eventually give it up to moist, tropical waves and the shear zone gives way to kinder aspects for those tropical waves trudging Westbound. 1985 and 2012 had similar set ups and they both had impacting hurricanes along the Mid Atlantic. If you aren't familiar with hurricane history then look up the names Gloria and Sandy. That is why I worry as our set up this year mirrors similar set ups, however the monkey wrench is that every hurricane season is just a little bit different from the analog one.

Caribbean Area 20% in 5 Day Say NHC. The Hype Begins. Models Give Us Clues. Convection is Strong. Shear Weakening. Spaghetti Models All Over It... I'm Making Spaghetti for Dinner. Is this Beryl? Stay Tuned.

20% Yellow Chances.

5 day.

10% in 2 Day.

Satellite images below.

Now we wait and watch.

Watch for any kinks in the wind barbs.

https://earth.nullschool.net

Shear is obviously decreasing.

Shear was forecast to decrease.

So we are right on time here.

Bud is still spinning in the EPAC

Watching Carib for any kink in wind flow.

Watch this loop for any signs...

...of it trying to wrap up in anyway.

Everyone's watching.

There is talk that MJO is on the way.

Providing a supportive set up.

Shear is lessening.

ULL vs High to it's North.

A similar set up as Alberto.

But different ....

It's a concentrated area of convection.

Look behind the system.

It's like it's carrying it's own moisture feed.

Shear is present or we'd worry.

My bottom line on this is it's a watch and wait situation that can produce a number of different sort of systems each with their own possible problems. If it forms close to land, crosses the Yucatan or is inhibited by land for formation until after he moves off the Yucatan that would be a different system than one that forms slowly and slides through the Yucatan Channel. A poorly developed system scurrying up along the coast of Mexico and Texas produces one sort of storm. One that forms further to the East over water longer produces a different sort of storm. The water to the North of the Yucatan Channel is warmer than where this 20% area to watch is currently trying to maintain convection this afternoon. Note the tongue of warmer water stretching South towards our area that is up for consideration to be the next named system in the Atlantic. 

Location of formation is everything.

Cranky made some salient comments in his blog that reads like the Great American Meteorological Novel making my blog seem more like Cliff Notes on the Great American Meteorological Novel. Cranky likes to give the impression he's "cranky" and well I do come across a bit perky or bubbly at times but in reality I'm pretty jaded. His concerns are well articulated and concurrent with my own reasoning with regard to this area of interesting convection. I really could care less this afternoon if the GFS or EURO weigh in differently in their next model run. The problem with models is that they show us many things and they can be translated and read differently and often something important is ignored as the person viewing the model is only looking for support of their own idea. When you begin a scientific experiment with a stubborn point of view you ignore the evidence that may be in front of you because it doesn't support your hypothesis. I'm not a model hugger but I do love to watch them curiously. "Through it all model interpretation is important"  said Cranky and he is 100% accurate. 

The 7 Day Loop that is visible on www.spaghettimodels.com as well as some other helpful long range graphics show that this system is already drawn onto the US maps as a closed Low making landfall in Texas. That may or may not happen but it's an early indication which way the wind is blowing and worth keeping in the back of your mind as you go about life today and tomorrow. In about 36 to 48 hours we should have a better idea of what is really going to happen. An image from that loop is shown below. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Lastly there's been much talk on SAL.

SAL is a feature that holds center stage in June and July.

Bursts of SAL are projected across the ocean.

SAL makes it to Key West, South Beach and beyond

Note it oozes into Texas and up to the Carolinas.

It hovers over South Florida often.

Asthmatics deal with it.

Photographers get tropical sunsets.

My son in Walnut Creek Florida took this picture.

Last night the sky suddenly turned hot pink.

That's because SAL is present.

Stay tuned.

I said to count 7 to 10 days after Aletta formed.

Add in Bud's presence so count a week from there.

Bud is moving rapidly towards Baja.

Shear is lessening in the Carib.

The MJO is moving into the Carib.

Climo adds a vote for development.

I'd say we could definitely get a TD at the least.

Possibly even Beryl will develop.

Either way the rain could be epic.

They do need rain.

But no one wants that much at once.

Hype will be evident all week.

Take those Tweets with a grain of salt.

Tweet Margaritas so to speak.

Another good site is www.crownweather.com

It's a pay site but worth it if you need to know...

https://www.bonfire.com/spaghetti-lover/

I'm making Spaghetti tonight.

The idea came to me while on Mike's site today.

My husband loves Spaghetti.

I love Spaghetti Models.

Dinner is a compromise ;)

Stay tuned, 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Hurricane Aletta in EPAC Cat 4. Surprising Rapid Intensification. Suicide of Anthony Bourdain Surprising and Sad. Surprise Tornado in Wyoming & Volcanoes Erupting. Been a Surprising Few Weeks.

Today's weather surprise.

Rapid intensification of Aletta.

Oh look Bud is about to form also.

Hurricane Aletta.

Eastern Pacific.

South of Baja.

Cat 4

Track and visible below.

Another view below.

Very impressive.

Surprising.

Very surprising.

Rapid Intensification.

Few saw that coming....

I said it a month or so ago and I meant it when I said that this Hurricane Season will continue to surprise us in ways. A surprise is something unexpected and often happens fast the way flash flooding brought torrents of water racing down into Ellicott City last month. Surprising in the way some volcanoes suddenly blow their top and rearrange the landscape in different, often deadly ways. One flows in intense orange and red shades down into once suburban paradises and the other covers everything in it's path in deadly ash. 

Good article. 

Explains the why behind the death toll.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/08/science/volcano-guatemala-hawaii.html

Speaking of deadly it's been a horrible week for surprising, shocking, sad news stories about suicides of individuals who seemed much loved and living the dream on top of the world. I say "seems" as we really don't know what is below the surface in someone's life in the same way we don't always know when a volcano is about to blow or the ground is about to shake. These sort of "events" leave us shaken to our core as it's not normal to feel the ground shake, rattle and roll and it's not normal to see someone who "seemed" to be so happy and alive take what seems to be his incredibly, beautiful life. 

About 6 years ago my daughter-in-law insisted I sit with her through the last few weeks of her pregnancy and watch one documentary after another on TV. We learned how they made jelly beans and candy canes and then we watched episode after episode of Anthony Bourdain living the dream. For me in reality it was a dream show as he found a way to combine geography, history and politics into episodes where he ate Oxtail Stew or Scotch Eggs. Whether he was in Vietnam or Peru or New Jersey he brought the flavor of the place as alive as he did the dish he was sampling. I have to be honest I always got Kate Spade mixed up with Kate Landry, so it took me a minute to figure out who took her life before I began to wonder what could cause a mother to bring such horror into her child's life. I know suicide is a short term solution to a long term problem and people who kill themselves rarely are thinking clearly. Sometimes a person at the end of a horrible disease chooses to pick the time they will die, but usually it's related to an overdose of drugs or an overdose of emotion. I was so stunned when my husband walked into the room this morning just a few minutes after Buzz Feed sent me a text of "Breaking News" that I couldn't say the words as it seemed incomprehensible that such a thing could happen. I simply showed him my phone unable to say Anthony Bourdain committed suicide.

Sometimes a surprise is a birthday party that someone tries to pull off or a sudden trip to Charleston that wasn't planned. Good surprises are way better than terrifying ones like a tornado on a clear day with nothing in the forecast mentioning a possible tornado or a volcano blowing while you are on your dream vacation in Guatemala. 

Bourdain told it like it was whether you wanted to hear it or not. He did a segment on Jamaica that told it like it is in ways and in ways it's a similar reason that it bugs me when people go to Cuba and stay in a State owned resort while going on a State approved excursion, spend money, take selfies and are clueless how the average Cuban lives. Living in Miami in Overtown or Little Haiti is not the same as living in Bal Harbor or Coral Gables and few of the locals party on South Beach yet on Ocean Drive the party goes on and on all night. It's like those "GOING OUT OF BUSINESS" signs painted on the windows of stores for the tourists to race in and buy "Miami Vice" tee shirts for every relative they have back home because the "store is going out of business" but that painted sign gets touched up every few months as the tide of tourists goes on and on. 

I know I sound a bit down but really the double dose of sad is heartbreaking and you wonder whether things really do come in 3s and I hope anyone who is even considering such a sudden, impulsive act reaches out and gets help before rushing into what seems to be a way to stop the pain when in fact it creates endless pain for those left behind who loved them. I know a friend who lost someone very close to him from suicide and I know it colored their world in dark, shades of stormy gray for a long time until they found ways to bring back some color and life back into their world.

https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org

I'd rather deal with a rapidly developing hurricane any day (like Hurricane Andrew was) than deal with a sudden 7.0 Earthquake or a flash flood or the loss of a friend or relative by someone who thought there was no other way...  Someone told me recently I was "always a strong girl" and that's true but no one really knows the fears going on inside your head and heart in the darkest of moments. My children have always kept me grounded as well as several incredible friends, as well as a husband who tries to make me happy with a sudden trip to Charleston or Southern Pines. It's the little things in life really. My secret? I never want to leave a legacy like that to my children, I never want to totally lose it and be on the cover of the National Enquirer and when my son sends me a video to a new trailer like Bumblebee (as he did just now) I take it with a huge sense of humor............ 

Life goes on if you keep trying to pull yourself out of the deep holes we so often fall into and sometimes we have friends who reach down and try to help us out and back into life. I wish you all the pleasure of having someone who is there for you when you need it the most. 

As for weather..........this is typical of a normal hurricane season. Epac percolates in June and we wait our turn until the water gets warmer, the wind shear dies down and the waves get stronger. While waiting on those Westbound waves we watch the tail end of cold fronts that linger too long around on either coast of Florida. Right now the tropical news is in the Eastern Pacific where it should be the first week of June. I do believe this will be an Average Hurricane Season meaning we will have a good amount of tropical storms, hurricanes and some sudden rapid intensification in our basin. It's splitting hairs to say above average or below average because when a hurricane like Andrew suddenly goes from a weak, barely there Tropical Storm to a Cat 5 Hurricane taking aim at your town it's a huge hurricane season you remember forever. 

If you ever feel sad or bad or as if the only way out is suicide think again. No one, no amount of money lost or even just a crappy day is worth forgetting that tomorrow IS another day and you could be on top of the world just days after feeling down in the dumps. Turn off the sad love songs, turn off the scary news, go for a walk, smell a magnolia or go to sleep and tell yourself tomorrow will be better. Make it better. Reach out if you need to talk. 

https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. In retrospect while looking for happy, smiling pictures of Anthony Bourdain it was hard to find one to use. Some of the "happy faces" look forced and that wry grin where you can tell he has deep thoughts he is debating on saying remain on his face in most of the pictures online. He will be very missed. 

https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org