Invest 97L Hovering Over the NC VA Coast.... Could It Get a Name Out Over Water? How Bout the GOM? And, Oh My Gosh... a REAL WAVE Coming Off of Africa.

Radar 

This is Invest 97L that has a 30% chance at 8 AM Sunday.

Discussing 97L first as it has a designation.

It has a potential future.

The loop below shows it over the NC Coast.

And I do mean over the coast.

As in more inland than off.

Though it's moisture is everywhere.

And the end of the frontal complex is the area in the NE GOM.

More on that later.

There's a ground stop at Chicago O'Hare airport as another huge complex storms all colorful on satellite imagery races through. I'm wondering what they are feeding those storm complexes out over the Dakotas, down into Minnesota then aiming at either Chicago or Arkansas. It's been one after another like some pinball machine stuck on sending another ball out of the chute and doing the same musical dance down and out.

Yes stage upper left is our MidWest Monster Cell that's on some sort of energy drink that perhaps the Atlantic needs to think on switching over to as one tropical wave after another literally bites the dust; it could use one of those Bing or Bang drinks that's all the rage this summer. I saw one Cotton Candy flavored in the market at the local Harris Teeter but no I couldn't. I'm more a coffee girl as everyone knows and yes they have a grocery store here named Harris Teeter. Now you understand why Publix has moved into the general North Carolina area.

Speaking of things that moved into the general North Carolina area we would be discussing Invest 97L that was announced with low odds but in the right location close to the coast to deserve it's own Invest tag and set of model runs. It's out there and there is a strong possibility it could intensify once it moves off of land and is totally out over the Atlantic.  Models below.

Note last intensity runs showed it could get a name.

We currently have two small cells that popped up over their large stalled out frontal boundary anchoring both edges of the system that is starved for a real center or well possibly it needs some Pina Colada Energy Drink. But we are watching and wondering on possibilities in the Gulf of Mexico down the road and if 97L running out of road can develop into something that gets a name or Tropical Depression designation. Earthnull shows their sneaky presence hiding in some cove somewhere that pirates Blackbeard and Lafitte used to evade the authorities and rest up before venturing out again on the high seas.

I don't know what to say beyond this....

...we are watching close in until the real players show up.

You know Pre-Season NFL Football.

Let's see what some of those draft picks got for us?

As I said the other day.

With or without a name.

It's lots of tropical rain.

If it's flooding your yard or street....

....it's a real pain.

Out by Africa.

Far away is a new wave coming off the coast.

A nice looking wave.

I keep waiting for some to have a real center.

You know low pressure...

Nice. That's ...okay interesting.

No models don't do much with it yet.

Some long range models show the Atlantic waking up.

Let's wait a day or two before jumping on it.

And let's see what it looks like after jumping in the pond.

So for now, have a good weekend.

Enjoy this Sunday.

Labor Day is around the corner.

Fall is on everyone's minds.

Come September we will have some spin going on.

Both on the playing field and in the Atlantic.

Honestly if I took every Invest seriously....

...or every tropical wave.

I'd go stark raving crazy.

It's a short trip .... trust me ;)

But I really try to hide my crazy... 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Mid Atlantic Under the Gun This Year from Wicked Weather. Will A Hurricane Come It's Way Too? Too Soon to Say But Signs From the Past Point to Tropical Trouble.

This is where we are this morning. A big, colorful tropical wave prepares to leave Africa. A suspect area of convection will flare up as the sun gets higher in the sky in the Gulf of Mexico. A long trail of deep tropical moisture runs from Florida up to Canada. The area most under the gun is the Mid Atlantic northward including a good part of the Carolinas. Florida will get more rain than usual from the GOM as it moves about in tandem in flow with the whole shebang that is messy and busy and everyone wants it to go away. It will go away, but it will be replaced with stronger waves and developing storms so are you ready for the Hurricane Season? I'm guessing if you are reading this you are more ready than the Average Joe. Note the white area of convection ahead of the new wave that loops like a leaping dolphin. That will allow this wave to stay alive longer than the last strong wave that tried to flare up just before it rolled onto the coast of South America. 

The rains in Pennsylvania and New York will create havoc and when I say havoc I mean water rescues and property under water and the water is going to keep rolling downstream to the lowest point and then it may keep rolling. Rivers will rise. What starts in PA often ends downstream in DC, Maryland and parts of Virginia. The Mid Atlantic really is in a set up going into the hurricane season that isn't pretty and way too welcoming for any tropical system pushed westward too close to the coast by a large persistent Atlantic High. Note the map below by Cranky of the current set up. The current set up is waiting for a system from Canada to finally move in and rearrange the flow. The problem with this set up is if it hangs around in any way and you throw a tropical marble into that pattern it only brings more trouble to the Mid Atlantic. When I harp on the Mid Atlantic it is because it's not a good set up for them this year, but anywhere along the coast from the GOM to Florida has to watch carefully when the Bermuda High breathes, expanding in then out then in again. Highs do that they remain anchored but they float around a bit near that anchor and every degree it pushes West or East means escape or landfall for a hurricane.

Nothing stays the same though there are commonalities. In the same way that we are young and then we get older, some of us get wiser and some of us don't... the story is in the telling. A young hot looking guy who enjoyed playing sports turns into a fat slob from drinking too much beer and eating too many chips while watching sports and is too tired to get up to go to the fridge to get another beer. His wife who was a hot young thing before she had 3 kids and cut her long blonde hair short because it was easier has to shop at a large size store and wanders in and out of Weight Watchers trying to lose that extra fifty pounds. She gets him the beer, she plays Candy Crush and nibbles on M & Ms which is a far cry from what she used to nibble on back when they met. Life's not bad for the aging happy couple but it's not what it was and neither are they. You think I'm depressed right? Nah.. being playful.

So you have this set up with the High Pressure and Cousin SAL is the hottest guy in town. He blows out hot Saharan Dust lighting up the sunsets in tropical hues and everyone thinks he's their hero. Lord knows we all need heroes. After the 2017 Hurricane Season people will take any hero they can get to go through that again. We grasp at heroes named SAL or "Cooler Water Temps" (It's just a bit cooler? No problem we'll take it!!) or the always popular EL Nino. But no matter how bulked up Cousin SAL is at some point he begins to get tired of dealing with the incessant, insidious tropical waves and he's not getting as much support from his friend "cooler waters" like he did earlier in the season and by late August Cousin Sal becomes a really big sloppy mess. El Nino comes in like the Trojan Horse ready to save the day (a dollar short and way too late by the way) and delivers what could be crappy weather to many parts of the country that will then be blamed on El Nino that goes fast from friend to foe. 

I'm pretty sure that old Homer was probably pretty hot when he was young, I mean his wife is still pretty hot in a Smurfy kind of way with the blue hairdo. But I think you get where I'm going with this in that things evolve and what is on the weather maps today evolves into a bigger problem during late August and early September. I do think in fact we will have something to talk about the first week of August in the Atlantic but either way the area close in that gives us Home Grown could produce a named system or a pain in the rear end no name storm that brings strong weather and more flooding rains to some area along the coast. Keep watching. For now SAL is strong and so is the moisture feed running out of control until some Canadian front pushes down and it being July doesn't help much as it's a bit early for that, however I have leaves on my Maple tree in Raleigh that are beginning to turn yellow so I'm guessing we are just running fast and furious towards Fall this year.

Mid Atlantic. 

Keep it mind.

Today and down the road.

In Raleigh this big beautiful pecan tree came down.

Beautiful house.

Beautiful tree.

Withstood many a hurricane.

But it came down from a strong storm.

Maybe it was tired.

Maybe just the storm was strong.

https://www.wral.com/blast-of-wind-damages-historic-house/17716149/

What is it about people that makes them get crazy hysterical about some one online or leads to road rage when cut off but we cry when we see such a beautiful old tree that came crashing down. Anyway... I suggest you learn the differences in the Flood Watches and Warnings that the NWS puts out so linking to an article below that is worth you taking the time to read. Do you really know what an AREAL FLOOD is or do you think it means it's a real flood? Wrong. Please read especially if you live near a stream that is high or in an area already water logged from recent rains.

http://www.weatherboy.com/different-flood-types-advisories/

Do you really know the differences? Now would be a good time to learn them and be aware of the specifics your area might be dealing with during the next few days while tropical convection keeps being pumped up over a good swath of the East Coast. That said, places out West had flooding today also so it's a lesson everyone needs to learn because even in a desert there is sometimes rain.

Knowledge is power. I say that all the time here and in person and it's true.

I'll be back when there is something to report or to make an update. I'm in pre travel mode as I'm preparing to go back to Florida for a little while for some family happenings and I'm sure the photos in my blog will reflect that change of scenery. Keep smiling, stay alert and enjoy the quiet times if you are not under the gun from wicked rain storms.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Not proofing this so if I made a mistake... sorry and I'll fix it later.

https://www.npr.org/2014/09/19/349621429/the-song-that-never-ends-why-earth-wind-fires-september-sustains Interesting article about a song about the 21st of September... the peak of the Hurricane Season. Will we be tracking??

Ps Using that knowledge you have to know that the Saharan Dust will eventually give it up to moist, tropical waves and the shear zone gives way to kinder aspects for those tropical waves trudging Westbound. 1985 and 2012 had similar set ups and they both had impacting hurricanes along the Mid Atlantic. If you aren't familiar with hurricane history then look up the names Gloria and Sandy. That is why I worry as our set up this year mirrors similar set ups, however the monkey wrench is that every hurricane season is just a little bit different from the analog one.

Tropics Weekend Watch -- Quiet Despite Model Whispers on Development in July. Strong High. Stubborn Waves.

I'm prefacing this post with the request that you read the previous two posts that explain why we are in the doldrums of the Hurricane Season while the Atlantic rests up and gets back on track. The previous post shows typical types of hurricane tracks that will be important to remember in about 10 days time. It's June and this is exactly where we should be, but after July 4th expect an uptick of fireworks in the tropics on the Atlantic side once again. You will notice a stubborn wave battling it's way West like the one before it in a sea of dry air and Saharan Dust. Around 40 West these waves wake up, smell warmer water and make a run for going the distance. They hit the shear at the entrance to the Eastern Carib and their moisture gets pushed up a bit to the North, part of the wave tries to go West and other parts move North of the Islands. This is the pattern that usually begins in July and ends up giving us a dramatic September. This year it began in June and I'd expect August to be prime time a bit earlier than usual.

Connect the dots above.

There are waves leaving Africa every few days.

The High remains a strong feature.

SAL is in it's seasonal place.

It's like it has a vacation condo for June and July..

Shear is nominal for this time of year.

Models though show a few possibilities.

Weak possibilities I may add.

Sort of burps in the High Pressure that dominates.

Let's go through the models fast.

Canadian shows the Epac being active, Atlantic quiet.

Euro doesn't show anything but a huge High.

GFS does a remake of Bertha with a way happier ending for North Carolina.

GFS Para ... sort of slides something very weak through the Florida Straits and hooks back.

I put those models up in alphabetical order so not giving any weight to any in particular.

I'm not in love with this set of waves yet despite some weak model support. Not sure what the GFS is sniffing, but I wish my coffee was that strong this morning. So let's let those waves leaving Africa bulk up a bit as they don't have much of a twist going on just yet. The water needs to be warmer, we need to get further into July.

And as always models update every so many hours and offer different solutions from run to run. Last night the GFS took a storm into the Islands, then lifting North tracing Hurricane Bertha's path towards Florida and then curving up towards the Carolinas. Today the same model shows the same similar set up but weaker and the track is more the right missing land on it's long journey across the sea. See last night's GFS wild ride in July.

When there is consistency we pay attention.

When said wave has consistent convection...

..we pay attention.

But we watch always.

Sometimes we are amused.

Sometimes annoyed.

Sometimes bored.

Sometimes worried.

July has a worry buster for everyone.

It's called July 4th...

And this year the beaches seem to be open.

Enjoy it as you may not get another chance come Labor Day.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

@bobbistorm

Ps It's possible that one of those stubborn waves that breaks through the gates of the Caribbean may make it into the Epac and form there into something but that's a real long shot. Gotta watch stubborn waves and the tail end of old frontal boundaries for fast pop up action close in creating home grown problems.  Have a good weekend everyone. I'm one weekend closer to NFL football! Again those waves have great potential just because they seem to make it past SAL but they need to grow up and bulk up a bit before we see what they can really do. Coming to a tropical island this coming July....followed by real trouble in August!