A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, June 30, 2017
Tropics Weekend Watch -- Quiet Despite Model Whispers on Development in July. Strong High. Stubborn Waves.
I'm prefacing this post with the request that you read the previous two posts that explain why we are in the doldrums of the Hurricane Season while the Atlantic rests up and gets back on track. The previous post shows typical types of hurricane tracks that will be important to remember in about 10 days time. It's June and this is exactly where we should be, but after July 4th expect an uptick of fireworks in the tropics on the Atlantic side once again. You will notice a stubborn wave battling it's way West like the one before it in a sea of dry air and Saharan Dust. Around 40 West these waves wake up, smell warmer water and make a run for going the distance. They hit the shear at the entrance to the Eastern Carib and their moisture gets pushed up a bit to the North, part of the wave tries to go West and other parts move North of the Islands. This is the pattern that usually begins in July and ends up giving us a dramatic September. This year it began in June and I'd expect August to be prime time a bit earlier than usual.
Connect the dots above.
There are waves leaving Africa every few days.
The High remains a strong feature.
SAL is in it's seasonal place.
It's like it has a vacation condo for June and July..
Shear is nominal for this time of year.
Models though show a few possibilities.
Weak possibilities I may add.
Sort of burps in the High Pressure that dominates.
Let's go through the models fast.
Canadian shows the Epac being active, Atlantic quiet.
Euro doesn't show anything but a huge High.
GFS does a remake of Bertha with a way happier ending for North Carolina.
GFS Para ... sort of slides something very weak through the Florida Straits and hooks back.
I put those models up in alphabetical order so not giving any weight to any in particular.
I'm not in love with this set of waves yet despite some weak model support. Not sure what the GFS is sniffing, but I wish my coffee was that strong this morning. So let's let those waves leaving Africa bulk up a bit as they don't have much of a twist going on just yet. The water needs to be warmer, we need to get further into July.
And as always models update every so many hours and offer different solutions from run to run. Last night the GFS took a storm into the Islands, then lifting North tracing Hurricane Bertha's path towards Florida and then curving up towards the Carolinas. Today the same model shows the same similar set up but weaker and the track is more the right missing land on it's long journey across the sea. See last night's GFS wild ride in July.
When there is consistency we pay attention.
When said wave has consistent convection...
..we pay attention.
But we watch always.
Sometimes we are amused.
Sometimes annoyed.
Sometimes bored.
Sometimes worried.
July has a worry buster for everyone.
It's called July 4th...
And this year the beaches seem to be open.
Enjoy it as you may not get another chance come Labor Day.
Keep watching.
Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.
@bobbistorm
Ps It's possible that one of those stubborn waves that breaks through the gates of the Caribbean may make it into the Epac and form there into something but that's a real long shot. Gotta watch stubborn waves and the tail end of old frontal boundaries for fast pop up action close in creating home grown problems. Have a good weekend everyone. I'm one weekend closer to NFL football! Again those waves have great potential just because they seem to make it past SAL but they need to grow up and bulk up a bit before we see what they can really do. Coming to a tropical island this coming July....followed by real trouble in August!
Cindy's Aftermath.Flooding, Tornadoes. Moving E and NE. EPAC Busier, Atlantic Takes a Short Break For You to Prepare for Hurricane Season. Hurricane History Miami, Tampa Due for a Real Direct Hit. Forecasting in 2017 vs 1917. Who Am I?
A look at Cindy's remnants in motion.
The exact location of Cindy's "center" above.
New Madrid area actually...
...sorry how my mind works.
As usual forecasting the worst weather in the weather mass formerly known as "messy Cindy" has not been easy for the NWS. They have erred on the side of caution with flood watches and warnings with some mention here and there for possible tornadoes and severe weather. Yesterday, out of nowhere and far from the "center" of Ex Cindy a tornado danced over Metro Atlanta. Not far away in Northern Alabama a tornado decided to visit a liquor store. Apparently it was picky as only some aisles saw debris while other aisles still had the bottles stacked as if nothing had happened.
This really does happen. No walls left standing.
But some of the bottles upright as if a Twister wasn't just there....
Fairfield Alabama now on the map thanks to Cindy.
Pointing out two things here.
Above note the interior room structure remains..
Note the Mtns or high hills off in the distance.
There has been much discussion here as well as elsewhere as to the effect of topography and how it makes a bad situation worse if it's in the path of the remnants of a tropical cyclone in search of a frontal boundary. The issue of elevation intensifies the weather leading to possible flooding problems if rainfall is high or small random twisters starts to spin. And, the reason they tell you to go to an interior room in a tornado is you have a better chance of surviving.
After Hurricane Andrew people noticed similar patterns of wind flow that left some houses on a block barely touched while homes on the corners often were torn apart. A friend in Kendall had just bought a new bedroom set for her baby daughter. The wind entered the room and tore at things a bit, but nothing was broken. However the new furniture was scratched up by things unseen hitting it at high velocities. It then whooshed through the hallway into the next bedroom tossing everything about. The photos on the wall in the hallway were not even at an angle, as if nothing had happened. She and the baby spent the night of Andrew in a bedroom closet praying they would all survive. Her husband stayed outside with his back to the closet door hoping it would hold tight. The family photos just hung perfectly all through the hall where wind raced on it's way to destroying the back bedroom. Happens.
So Cindy is inland and her weather mass is moving North and East bringing potential problems with it and the NWS is doing a great job of warning everyone in it's path. Those watches and warnings along the Ohio Valley and the SE will move East over time so check in often with your best local source for weather news. nws.noaa.gov is the link for the NWS. Just enter your zipcode and I'm sure you know your zipcode so just do it if you live East of those warnings above as this whole mess moves East and North. Weather in Kentucky may get dicey later today! This is not just your every day cold front or summer weather moving through. And please make it move through faster as it's way too hot and humid in Raleigh today.
As for the rest of the tropics.
The Epac has an Invest.
As usual the Epac screams "my turn, my turn!!"
... after an Atlantic storm dies out in June.
They seem to take turns sometimes.
There's a real scientific reason for it but ...
...let's just say energy moves about.
In the Atlantic you can see the curvature of a tropical wave.
Waves will be departing Africa that are more viable in a week or so.
Nothing is currently being shown by the models.
But models update often and so should you.
Always stay on top of the weather.
The tornado that formed over Atlanta...
..had no Tornado Watch.
See the map from yesterday below.
When the tornado was spotted...
..NWS put a Tornado Warning up immediately.
Weather can happen like that...
Climate is always.
Weather can be like a one night stand...
As a writer I try to stay light here and explain the dynamics of tropical weather in a way that is easy for the lay person to understand. I don't tout my meteorological knowledge or education but let me say that it's extensive. From studying meteorology and geography in college to a point that it was obsessive to learning from people I have.. collaborated with online and in person while doing research at the NHC Library. And reading my whole life books on hurricane history that were then out of print and that are almost impossible to find today. I've been through numerous hurricanes, done storm chasing and been chased by a few too many hurricanes. Trust me it's way better to chase a hurricane than to be chased by one. Chasers move about with knowledge of both roads, weather conditions and other chasers. You cannot pick up a two story, 13 room home built four blocks from the Atlantic Ocean. You can do your best to protect it and you and pray the storm hooks to the right or left and leaves it in better shape than that ABC Liquor Store in Alabama. My house on Miami Beach in Hurricane Andrew was high and dry and in good shape. A block away a ladies roof took off and set sail in the wind landing in her neighbors back yard pool and the yard and partially on her house.
As a writer I try to put this into a frame work you can understand rather than talking in academic language that if you understood you probably wouldn't be reading this blog. Or maybe you would as I have some friends in the world of academia who seem to enjoy reading my thoughts.
Bottom Line:
Weather can spin up fast and the NWS moves fast to stay on top of changes in real time to a forecast. Forecasters dealing with multiple models giving totally different solutions did the best they could and they did a very good job at the NHC with Tropical Storm Cindy. Kudos to the rule changes that allow for faster dissemination of information by way of watches and warnings before an actual center has shown itself. We can do that based on trust and reliance that we have now days in model forecasts for tropical development. We are lucky these days, in the old days people were not lucky they were caught without warnings often by Killer Hurricanes that suddenly swerved or made a turn where no ship could relay that information.
We have been extremely lucky the last few decades as some areas were hit over and over by dangerous hurricanes in the past that have not been hit in recent times. Key West has been lucky that the worse they have seen was Wilma or Georges as the 1919 Hurricane was a big blow and then it went on to slam into Texas as well a a very bad hurricanes in 1910. Read the text above a few times and try to picture it in your mind. And understand the weather service back then did the best it could to protect the people in the path of storms, but there wasn't much lead time when they were wrong. Now we can warn people with a Tropical Storm Warning before the tropical storm is done forming.
Tampa is so overdue for a Major Hurricane pushing up into Tampa Bay that it makes some wonder if they paid off the devil.
Lastly no matter how many times we say September Remember it's been a long time since downtown Miami and the beautiful adjacent city of Miami Beach was hit by a Category 4 Hurricane. The last record we have of wind speed was before the anemometer was blown off the a rooftop of a hotel on Miami Beach. We have been very lucky and at some point our luck may run out. Trust me I hope not but I'm realistic and so should you be. Andrew hit Homestead directly Miami only felt it's destructive energy.
https://www.weather.gov/mfl/miami_hurricane
Read it and look through the pictures.
Be #Hurricanestrong go on...
We used to forecast by the barometer.
There are a lot more buildings there now...
...for ships at sea to be tossed into!
Trust me on this there is so much information online. At www.hurricanecity.com Jim Williams has a list of cities and he shows the history for most cities in Hurricane country. Miami is shown below. You learn from history so you can prepared for the tomorrow when a hurricane is coming straight at your town. Trust me. I said Cindy would hit the Sabine River area between Texas and Louisiana when asked by friends on Twitter over and over days before it made landfall there. I made it clear Cindy might move a bit more to the west or east but in that general region. And, I said that when other meteorologists insisted it would hook left into Mexico or aim at the coast of NW Florida. I know hurricanes and I know weather and on any given day weather can change fast and the NWS does their best to change the forecast. You have the final responsibility to stay on top of the weather.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/miami.htm
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for faster news and updates!
TS BRET Forms in the Atlantic, PTC3 Forms in the GOM From 93L Models, Watches & Warnings.
It's fair to say 2017 is an officially busy season with Tropical Storm Bret named in the Atlantic and Invest 93L now known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 in the GOM. Recon found a closed center of circulation as well as robust banding to upgrade PTS2 to Bret. The link for the discussion is below. Know that it will either move into the Caribbean or possibly move onto land for a second time over the coast of Venezuela. Surviving beyond that is not something to speculate on currently, for now attention is turned to Trinidad and Tobago in it's path.
For now we are just dealing with the next few days.
Most expect Bret to fall apart further into the Caribbean.
While small it was apparent Bret had a closed circulation.
Recon found it a bit away from where they expected.
They looked far and wide and found it!
Based on that information it was upgraded.
I posted the image above while recon was inside the storm.
Again Twitter works well for immediate information.
Next we move on to upgraded 93L
AKA PTC3
Pointing this out first so you can see it.
There is a center there.
However convection has not wrapped around it.
And there may be other centers.
That is why for now this is PTC3 vs Cindy.
If some of those storms begin to wrap around.
That may help it but again...
..look towards the left.
You see the shear there that it is battling.
Interestingly both systems are both battling shear.
I'm posting wind speed probabilities below.
Because a wide area along the GOM...
...may feel strong weather from maybe Cindy.
(PTC3 for now)
So every one from Houston to Pensacola needs to pay attention!
It is possible it could intensify close to land.
Water is warmest in the GOM close to land.
NOTE THE LAST PARAGRAPH
Interests along US Gulf Coast ...
Texas to FL...
Pay Attention.
A view of both systems is shown below.
Looking at the loop above you will see both designated systems are battling shear, diving troughs and having similar problems. The Eastern Caribbean is an unpopular place for a Tropical Storm to be in June and the GOM isn't too hospitable currently either. And yet the busy season forecast by many of 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is upon us. We may have the C storm before July begins.
Also note the huge amount of rainfall headed North, streaming currently into the Gulf of Mexico. As this is a weak system a wider number of people are affected than if it was a well wrapped up Hurricane. And, as steering currents are iffy the exact track of PTC3 may move around about so do not look at the exact track or any one model but the whole coastline of the Northern GOM that is currently under the gun for nasty weather and probable flooding.
Rather than stare at an old fashioned cone stare at this graphic. And note that rainfall goes inland quite far. IF and when PTC3 becomes Tropical Storm Cindy and if and when it intensifies and finds it's groove we can then wax poetic on cones and exact landfall.
Watch the moisture already on the move North.
Follow the motion of convection.
Northbound for now.
And nasty weather will be at those beach towns soon.
Models come and go on exact landfall.
Currently look at the forecast for Biloxi, MS.
And, I pulled that out of the hat randomly.
Rain for the next several days.
Already a Flash Flood Watch.
If you live in the area that could be affected by PTC3 pay attention and expect to have weather problems of some kind or another over the next few days. And, because the NHC has changed the rules this year we can now properly warn people in advance of tropical weather moving towards your area that can bring life threatening conditions. More people die from flooding in tropical systems and the small towns along the Gulf of Mexico are low lying and prone to flooding. So pay attention and watch for an upgrade of this system to Tropical Storm Cindy down the road. It might not ever be upgraded, though I think it will, however the nasty weather will arrive with or without a name!
And waiting in the wings is more trouble rolling off of Africa. If you have not made preparations for tropical trouble in your area please do so. Having a plan is better than having no plan and winging it at the last minute while in a state of panic. Be #HurricaneStrong as they say and make a plan, begin buying things you may need. And if you live along the Northern GOM coast please plan on having at the least heavy rain, tropical storm force winds moving slowly across your area. Plan accordingly.
I'll update later tonight as more information comes in. Watches and warnings may be upgraded and if a center of PTC3 becomes apparent an upgrade to Tropical Storm Cindy is possible.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
