NHC & CINDY Divorce Final .. Inland & Passing Cindy Off to the NWS. EX Bret & Wave in Atlantic. Post Game Discussion on Models GFS Victory over EURO (kind of) Cantore Covers Flooding IN Lake Charles Area

A bit of a post game analysis on Tropical Storm Cindy this morning and then I'll talk on a few things to think about down the road. The models overall did an excellent job of sniffing out development where Cindy was concerned despite massive differences. In truth both of the hot shot models were right. The GFS kept smelling huge amounts of rain and low pressure along the NE Gulf of Mexico coast, however it was wrong with it's intensity forecast. The Euro that stubbornly insisted a small tropical cyclone would form and hook left towards Texas was wrong on the extreme left hook to Mexico. And over time the Euro inched itself northeastward towards Mexico and came more in line with the GFS that moved it's landfall from the NW coast of Florida a bit further West. Sometimes the models look as if they are trying to stay out of court and in mediation. Much like a real estate deal where a seller wants an unrealistic price and a buyer wants to get it as cheap as possible it's the realtor's job to convince them both to agree on middle ground.

Back on June 15th the top two models showed the solutions above. That was long range modeling for a system that never really formed a closed center until just before landfall. And, even then it had multiple centers rotating around one oblong, closed center. Now in reality the EURO was WAY off, however in any other year it most likely would have been on the money. The GFS showed an immensely large closed Low moving up in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico moving towards landfall near Mobile or Pensacola Bay. This year in particular the desert SW had some extreme heat planes were forbidden to land in Phoenix and many airlines had to cancel flights. That huge High took over the SW and the SW bleeds into Texas from a meteorological point of view and it made the usual friendly realm of the BOC in June be downright inhospitable. Despite my respect for the EURO I didn't find it's solution to be correct. As for the GFS I didn't think the low would wrap that much nor be so strong and with no strong cold fronts and lack of steering currents it would be hard for a weak kneed large low pressure Gyre to make a run for the gold in Apalachicola. It's akin to turning a big rig on a small country road that has a sharp bend with water on either side; not happening. You need a stronger system and a stronger front to grab a cyclone in the GOM in June and hook it right hard.

Where did that leave the messy, large potential tropical cyclone 3? It avoided the west side of the GOM and found the slight weakness between the high to the right and the high to the left and stayed in the middle drifting slowly North carrying heavy tropical moisture along with it until finally after flirting with an ULL in the NW GOM it tried as hard as it could to inch it's way more to the West and make landfall around the Sabine River between Louisiana and Texas and moved on up to Lake Charles area while it's real weather slammed into the area along Mississippi, Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida. Basically the GFS nailed the precipitation and murky weather while the Euro moved closer to where the weakly developed center of low pressure coughed itself up onto the beaches along the Sabine River with just a part of her moisture officially hitting Texas. Discussion from NHC is below with current location of Cindy.

"Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with
surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass
Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast
between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago.
The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now
around 35 kt.  Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will
occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be
reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  In 2-3 days, or
sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a
frontal zone over the eastern United States."

Now what? It tangles with the new frontal boundary after merging with the old dead frontal boundary and a lot of this will be played out in real time depending on how much gas the new front has in it's tanks and how far it can go. I've outlined the possible flooding conditions that occur when a tropical system merges with a front and elevation of land can lead to huge localized flooding.  Showing Mike's post on Facebook below as it tells the tale again that I have been saying for days. Inland flooding over the next few days is possible across a huge expanse of the SE and then the Mid Atlantic while tropical moisture continues to train in along the beaches of GOM

Mike explains the problem with Cindy well.

I've talked incessantly on the flooding dangers.

So let's move on.

I'm watching what was Bret for two reasons.

Shouldn't have been anything left of it..

...but there is so keep watching.

It also enhances moisture in the long tail of Cindy.

And, I'm watching the wave in the Atlantic.

It does have a purple splotch shown below..

..however models are not in love with it.

Again for a wave to leave Africa in JUNE..

..and be this recognizable as it nears the islands is HUGE.

So that's the state of the tropics today.

The big story may become the flooding from Ex-Cindy.

The plug has been pulled. Last advisory written.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/221434.shtml

Follow Cindy at the NWS

http://www.weather.gov/

Tropics may be quiet for a few days.

But never say never so keep watching.

I'm taking a break myself a bit today and enjoying life. Celebrating my son's sale of a beautiful, luxury lot (vacant land) on Miami Beach about a mile and a half north of where he was raised. Levi Meyer of Compass Realty fame knows Miami Beach and knows how to convince two sides to come together unlike others who held the listing but could not! My son is on the right ;) If you know someone who wants to sell or buy land in the tropical paradise.. Levi Meyer knows Real Estate in Miami like Jim Cantore knows Hurricanes and Thundersnow!!

http://www.absolutemiami.com/mexican-developer-sells-waterfront-pine-tree-drive-lot-for-6-75m/#

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm 

I tweet faster than I blog.

Ps. GFS may have gotten better.

Euro may just have lost this one.

Time will tell.

Updated w music and thoughts on Cindy- - Tropical Storm Cindy Forms 45 MPH - Stationary in the N GOM - TS Bret WNW 40 MPH

Current advisory has TS Cindy stationary.

Swirling in the Gulf of Mexico

Waiting for her ticket out of town.

Bret has been written out of the Soap Opera.

I know you're wondering.......

Is this Morgan blown away with no body?

Tina going over the falls but no body found....

Can Bret return?

No models show that currently.

But it's moisture lingers in the Caribbean.

Though most of it is being swept away...

If not for the ULL forming South of Cuba..

...might have had a chance to be a contender!!

Bret's remnants would have to survive that deep diving trench.

In fact moisture is being pulled North and NE 

Now let's look back at the GOM

In the GOM Cindy is hopelessly in love with an ULL

Like the moth to the flame it hangs there...

...suspended in motion swirling stationary.

Rooted to it's core staring at the ULL

Perhaps the ULL longs for Cindy.

Hard to say...

This is not a Category 4 Hurricane plowing towards Miami or Charleston or Houston so I'm being a bit silly tonight. It is what it is and it is a minimal tropical storm loaded with all the extras with weather that will rain itself out for the next few days when it finally moves towards land.  Steering currents are weak. We need a hero to take this girl and take her breath away. 

Bad boy feature coming in from the West...

...beginning to be visible.

Cindy will begin to move towards Texas.

Cindy's moisture will inundate Louisiana and other states.

Cindy should be picked up following the ULL

Towards land and then jerk back suddenly.

As if she was taking a ride on . . . 

That's the plan.

Discussion from the NHC below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/202034.shtml?

Tomorrow is another day.

And I doubt Cindy will look much different.

Last visible image from tonight is better than last night.

It is what it is...

...it's a messy lopsided, minimal tropical storm.

Some intensifying is expected before landfall.

Oh and from the dying frontal boundary..

..energized my tropical moisture Atlanta had flooding today.

http://www.weather.gov/

Put in your zipcode and check out your warnings!

From the NHC below....

Seems a life time since we had a busy season.

Hasn't been that long but here we are...

Looking for tropical systems in all the wrong places.

People complaining Bret was short lived.

People complaining Cindy looks poorly.

It is what it is...

it is JUNE.

We had two named storms in June.

Can you imagine what July or August might be like?

September Remember...

Til then it is what it is

And tomorrow the center of Cindy should say Hello Texas..

...but her moisture is going to say Hello USA.

And THAT is what tropical storms are made for...

..they provide moisture up into the heartland.

Summer crops grow better here than in Russia.

GOM moisture moves inland.

When you have too much rain in Atlanta it's not good.

When you don't have enough rain in a corn field...

...the corn field burns up.

Since time began tropical storms have been washing up inland.

Providing beneficial rains people have prayed for...

Sometimes people get in the way.

Do NOT drive into a covered road way.

Turn around don't drown.

Seek higher ground if you area floods.

And watch the NWS for constantly changing warnings.

So tomorrow Cindy makes her move towards Texas.

I'll be back tomorrow with constant updates.

Cause this girl is leaving town tomorrow!

Out of the GOM towards land.

Might dawdle but it's going!

Okay now you know...

...was one of my favorite movies.

Wore cowboy boots all over LA in the early 80s ;)

Keep reading if you haven't read my blog earlier today.

Sit a spell and tap your boots.

Make a plan for the rest of Hurricane Season.

Because I think the drought is over...

Sweet Tropical Dreams 

BobbiStorm

Follow me along on twitter @bobbistorm

Both together shown below.

Note how long Cindy's tail goes down into the Caribbean.

And remember this is ALL ABOUT RAIN.

And probable flooding from the rain even inland.

Especially inland.

Tornadoes.

Based on visual imagery and surface observations the NHC decided to upgrade PTC3 to Tropical Storm Cindy with 45 MPH winds currently stationary and spinning over the warm waters of the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Shear has so far kept it's intensity low and hindered it's organization. Recon should be in the storm later this afternoon and we will have more information regarding the inner workings of TS Cindy that cannot be ascertained by watching loops online. The NHC leaves open the ability to later make this a Subtropical Storm vs a Tropical Storm. If they do that I'll explain it but basically a Subtropical has strong weather far away from the center, whereas with a normal TS or Hurricane the strongest winds are close to the center. There are other differences but for now let's go with what it is and it is TS Cindy.

It's worth noting there still are some multiple centers in the larger storm that is Cindy and that is common in large, poorly defined Tropical Storms especially early in the Hurricane Season. Again we currently have 2 Tropical Storms at the same time in the month of June and our next named storm will be the D storm as Arlene formed way back before we got really busy. You might want to keep this list handy as we seem to be speeding through it at almost record time.

Back to Cindy and it's forecast track.

Models have come together today.

The Texas Louisiana Border is probable landfall.

That's known as the Sabine River ....

...it's no stranger to tropical storms.

Low lying areas, bayou like prone to flooding.

Landfall could be a bit to the West of there ..or East.

Landfall is less important with Cindy than the whole package.

I want you to look at the above image.

Below is the morphed composite.

Watch the amount of dark oranges and reds..

...moving up into the GOM.

There is almost a never ending supply of tropical moisture.

Okay, at some point it will stop. 

But not for a while.

I'm not going to show you models as currently they are not important. You can go to Spaghetti Models or any site you like such as www.tropicaltidbits.com and the models are available. This is not as much about the exact location of a well defined eye making landfall as we would have in a hurricane, but a broad area of intense moisture displaced well to the East of the center of the storm pulling up copious amounts of tropical moisture today, tomorrow and the day after across the whole SE along the rim of the Gulf of Mexico and as far inland as Atlanta. There was a small tornado near Hilton Head today. It's raining in many places in the SE and there have already been a batch of tornado warnings today in the Florida panhandle. This is NOT about landfall, it's about the huge moisture shield moving in tandem with Cindy. Levi Cowan used the word copious today in his discussion on Tropical Tidbits, it's a good word and worth your time to check out his site. It's also featured top left on www.spaghettimodels.com. 

Look how much moisture we are talking about.

The radar roll currently is lit up.

The above is not a model forecast.

The above is the current radar across the SE.

Below is a model for 5 Days.

This is what we call a slow motion disaster.

Or rather it has the potential to be one.

The heaviest rainfall should be East of landfall.

Then with time extrapolate that inland.

Another problem with this storm is the potential for inland flooding. Interior Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama moving up either into the Appalachian Mountains and or into the Piedmont. 

Tropical Moisture + Old Stalled Out Frontal Boundary + Topography with Mtns = FLOODING.

You add those factors up and you get what often goes down in history as epic flooding. This will play out well past landfall, so we have time to see if the worst will happen or if instead the steering currents change and it moves out faster. Oh and did I mention Tornadoes? Let's mention tornadoes again as weak, large, lumbering tropical storms are very prone to tornadoes far away from the center that you see on a map. Way outside the "cone" for landfall and movement tornadoes can spin up. The many problems of weak Tropical Storms vs compact, well formed hurricanes. Less wind, more rain and flooding impacts. More chances of random, fast moving tornadoes forming in bands over several days.

Basically everyone from Texas to Florida and points inland need to worry on this Tropical Storm. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/201433.shtml use this link to see the exact location of the watches and warnings and know they will be updated again at 5 PM. It's a unique set up and I hope I have conveyed that enough to you. Because normally if you live in say Mobile and see a cone aimed at Beaumont Texas . . . normally you would feel safe and clear to go about life like normal. There is nothing normal about Cindy. I cannot say this enough times.

Back to Bret in the Caribbean.

Bret has moved off the coast of South America.

It's path may go further North into the Caribbean.

It is forecast to die out down the road.

Time will tell.

Some models do keep Bret alive.

Most models kill it off.

Keep watching until it's buried!

I'm a writer and a specialist in Hurricane History. I'll leave the graphics and modeling to others. The image above is the main page at www.hurricanecity.com and if you look carefully it's confusing as it seems as if Bret links up with Cindy. What that actually shows is the track of each system so far. Could some remnants of Bret remain and reform where Cindy first showed itself as a yellow circle? Anything seems possible in 2017. But what it does show is the general pattern of storms for now to trace there way around the strong High, end up near the Yucatan and head into the Gulf of Mexico. Move the High a bit more to the East and they could come up over Cuba towards Florida just as easily. Make the High a bit stronger and they could move towards landfall in Central America. A close up of the area I wanted to highlight is below.

I won't go long on Bret as the NHC doesn't think it will be here long.

Enough to know it is there and creating weather.

And in places often dry such as the ABC islands.

There are actually deserts in the Caribbean.

What I do want to show right now is the newest wave off of Africa.

Note poorly formed but INTENSE Cindy.

Beautifully formed but weak Bret.

And another strong wave coming off of Africa.

A very distant model for July 4th.

Not reliable but interesting.

Most interesting is the strength of the High.

Don't concentrate on the Low in the Atlantic.

Concentrate on the HUGE High Pressure

I'll be back later with more information.

The NHC cannot say it enough...

Be #Hurricanestrong.

They are doing their part...

..YOU have to do yours!

http://flash.org/hurricanestrong/

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbisstorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter for immediate updates.

Ps One of my favorite singers and songs.

Next name up on the list is Don.

Are you Hurricane Strong for Don or Emily or Franklin?

This could be the year the Emily name gets retired.....

Something to think on...

PTC3 Moves Towards GOM w HEAVY RAIN...All About the Rain!!! Everyone Gets Rain No Matter Where it Makes Landfall. Inland Flooding Problems. Cindy or PTC3 it's the Rain.... Bret Moving thru Carib.

Latest cone from NHC.

AGAIN..note the blue Tropical Storm warnings...

They are far to the East of the cone!

Do NOT look at the center of the cone.

Excellent graphic posted on Twitter shows this perfectly!

Understand places in Florida are under Flash Flood Alerts now!

The last few days here and on Twitter I have said I think this system could make landfall near the Sabine River area. The cone has come around to my point of view it seems and yet it's not really important except as trivia for hurricane history where the center comes ashore. Where the weather impacts and how much flooding or damage there can be from this lopsided messy storm IS the story and the concern. Note the visible image below that shows how right sided this storm currently is and how the moisture is moving inland far away from the direction the cone is leaning in the graphic above. It's a mental disconnect hard to convey other than to say "Do NOT stare at the cone if you live in Louisiana" and that cannot be said enough!

PTC3 takes center stage today.

In fact it takes up a good part of the GOM.

Note the long tail still over Mexico.

Eastern GOM under convection ..

One sided system.

Might wrap later today.

Might be named a Subtropical Storm.

So many IFS

For now we call it PTC3 

There are some greens near the "center"

Recon will make that call.

What is in a name anyway?

Note as much heavy rains still by the Yucatan...

...as up in the heart of the system.

Our slice and dice the winds view is below:

Not as oblong as yesterday.

Tightening up. Still has a way to go...

So you ask why is it not currently Tropical Storm Cindy? Or you may soon ask why wasn't it upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy? It's not in a very comfortable spot. It may look like it's parked itself on an old well worn sofa in the middle of the room doing it's thing. 

ULL NW GOM mixing it up with PTC3

But in truth it is battling shear and stalled out steering currents that aren't making it's future easy to read. Some Creole Tea leaves might help a bit. As for me I'm sipping Nespresso and watching Jim enjoy himself by my Creole Queen. Cute. Been there at dawn it's awesome. Fragmented thought process here but going with it as I'll be updating later today with more info once the caffeine wakes me up and recon sends back more better information. 

If you have the chance to go to New Orleans I'll tell you something most people won't tell you. Either wake up for sunrise or stay up for sunrise. I took this picture before speaking as keynote speaker on the Creole Queen at a convention of Cat Adjusters at a Conference put on by Mariposa a few years back. Always fun speaking on hurricanes at 8 AM . . . much the way I write long on tropical cyclones at 8 AM online. But way better with a good cup of coffee from New Orleans but that isn't relevant to Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. Just know you are missing a lot if you go to sleep late and miss the sunrise over the Mississippi River. Nuff said on that for now...

So Jim is there because the threat for severe flooding is there. Louisiana could see up to 9 inches of rain from a system that doesn't make landfall there and currently doesn't have a name. And where that rain goes, how long it remains and how fast it falls is more important than if Cindy forms and if Cindy makes landfall at Galveston or in the Sabine River area. The potential tropical cyclone bucking for the name Cindy may float around the Gulf of Mexico for a few days outlining the coastline and waiting to be picked up and pulled North towards a city somewhere. But the rain is the big story not the exact point of landfall. And may I point out the tail of PTC3 is STILL raining on the beaches of the Yucatan. And where that rain goes after it moves inland and merges with other features may be a bigger story down the road far inland. The graphics for the cone do not show the impact the tail is still having on weather down below nor will it show areas that will receive huge rain totals far from the center of the cone when it does make landfall.

If you saw this graphic above this morning..

..you'd think the rain over Yucatan is over.

Wrong.

Messy systems are huge rain producers.

Watch the loop below and see for yourself.

Shear exists and is keeping it from forming.

It may wrap, it's trying.

Whether it does or doesn't...

... everyone gets weather from it!'

No matter where the center goes..

..the moisture may fall far from the center.

Note moisture bands below.

I'll update later today on PTC3 aka Cindy maybe...

From far away you can see this in perspective.

Taking the world apart this morning in parts.

Below you can see Bret and a new wave off of Africa.

Bret has shown it's strength in the islands.

http://stormcarib.com/

This is the site we go to for reports directly from the Carib.

Always a good read.

I posted this earlier this week a few times.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/margarita.shtml

Reports are beginning to come in... 

What are the chances a 2nd Bret hits the same area?

1993 Bret in August and 2017 Bret in June.

Where does Bret go next if Bret survives?

Some people do believe it may survive.

It is not forecast to survive.

But we have seem remnants come back to life before.

Or continue West weakly towards another landfall.

Stay tuned.

I'm just showing the models I didn't make them up!

Bret currently moving WNW through the Caribbean.

Affecting land as it skims the coast of South America.

Affecting the ABC islands as I said it would yesterday.

Official track is above.

That will be updated at 11 AM.

I'll update later today with damage reports from Bret.

And any new model forecasts regarding both systems.

Today is the day for PTC3 to show us what it's got!

And as for Bret, how long will Bret survive?

So many questions.

The big problem is the rain.

Inland flooding.

Low lying coastal flooding.

Rain........

Look at the purple far inland.

Those are areas that are prone to terrible inland flooding.

Do not focus on the actual cone.

It may track NW and then it snaps back to NE

Then it's moisture feeds far inland.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

(thanks.........)

Some great links if you ever get to Nola ;)

It's one of American's most beautiful cities.

http://www.creolequeen.com/

Best place for great beigets and good service.

http://www.cafebeignet.com/

Go stare at the lines at the French Market.

Take selfies and then go to Cafe Beignet.

Trust me... I trusted someone.

So nice.

Then wander around the French Quarter.

Have dinner at any of the awesome restaurants!

Antoines is the best!

http://www.antoines.com/

And as always keep your eyes on the tropics.

New tropical wave rolling off of Africa......

Rolling...........