A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, May 31, 2019
2019 Hurricane Season Starts... Get a Start on Hurricane Preparation Now!
Now why would I be showing you bubbles.
Bubbles in different colors.
And these were huge bottles of bubbles.
Keep reading.
Welcome to the start of the 2019 Hurricane Season. If you are reading this you most likely have concerns for your own life and property or the lives of friends and relatives who live in Hurricane Country. Your job this weekend is to buy at lest one thing that you would need for Hurricane Season.
Yes, it is that easy. If you are out at Publix buy an extra can of tuna or if the peanut butter is buy one get one free.... buy some peanut butter. Get a box, or a locker and stick it in it. If you have kids hide stuff on top of the box and make sure no one gets into the hurricane supplies before a hurricane comes to your town and the box is bare with notes that read "sorry Mommy I ate all the snacks!!" Trust me I have raised enough kids to know this could happen and will happen if you are not really sneaky. Be sneaky!
I wrote this a few days back, please read the blog as it's excellent advice. Hurricanes are one of the only "natural disasters" that you can prepare for or have time to evacuate so be prepared and be glad you have that edge for once over Mother Nature.
So take a list, check it twice.
Whether you have been naught or nice...
Hurricanes may try to come and visit.
And like relatives .... they come back often.
Years with an early storm like 1926...
...then another Cat 4 in 1926 a bit further down the beach.
Jeanne and Frances..
Maria and Irma.
The list goes on and on.
Make your list.
Start buying Hurricane Supplies now.
Fix the roof, check the windows.
Now is the time to prepare...
...not when you get to the market too late.
And all that is left is canned oysters.
Well ... unless you really like canned oysters.
But apparently not too many people do.
Note this tweet!
Dollar Stores are the best place to stock up on hurricane supplies.
Honestly, they have paper products, medication and toys.
They have buckets, they have canned food...
Canned fruit, peanut butter.
Pretty much it's all there.
And affordable.
How?
Every time you go buy one product and put it away.
These are things you can use with or without a storm.
When you go to Walmart to get a screwdriver....
... and you see HUGE bottles of bubbles on sale.
BUY THEM if you have kids.,
Crayons.... that work without batteries.
Coloring books at the Dollar Store.
Nothing occupies kids longer than bubbles.
And you don't need electricity.
Parents have special needs.
Diapers and baby wipes.
Small kids get bored when they can't use their iPad.
You know that's true.
And you may not have electric for a week or two.
I'm talking best case scenario...
The house survived intact but the power is out.
Cable is out.
Trees are down.
You need to keep the kiddies busy...
So shop accordingly.
Trust me on this...
I know.
We didn't have power for almost two weeks after Andrew.
Batteries only go so far and need to be saved ...
Crayons last forever.
I'll do a full update on Sunday.
But for now...
Make a list.
Start shopping.
Because if you get the market late...
...and everyone has shopped.
The diapers are gone and.......
.......all that is left is canned oysters!
Stay safe... I do expect a busy season.
Best to prepare early.
Check your batteries see if they work.
Do you need new medication?
Get an extra batch...
And extra inhaler if you have asthma..
Better to have an extra one that to be down to 5 puffs.
Or whatever.
Here's a link to the reason I believe we will have a busy season.
Yellow X Over NC - Development Near OBX? 10 - 20% Chances Something Could Develop. Questions on Cool Water By Africa in the East Atlantic and Why You Shouldn't Really Care. Makes Great Click Bait and a Researcher's Dream But Close In Hurricanes Could Happen in 2018. Despite the Headlines Waves Keep Rolling Off of Africa. Come September We Need to Remember Climo Usually Wins.
Woke up this morning to the site of a Yellow X on the NHC 2 Day map just to the West of me. I always joke that Greensboro gets more weather than Raleigh and obviously that includes yellow 10% areas of possible development from the NHC. Some models spin this up and spit it out into the Atlantic where it moves in Derecho manner across the open water zooming out to sea. Some models do have it following the warmth of the Gulf stream close up the coast but off the coast sucking in as much energy (available heat from warm water close in) and sliding up towards the banks of Newfoundland. The EURO is more bullish on this system than the GFS that does not see anything of consequence evolving. Remember that as it will be interesting to see which model read this set up better than the other. Well, interesting for those of you who find that interesting ;)
So let's look at the models.
Using the 850 mb relative vorticity version here of Euro model to try and show the exact "center" of this possible tropical disturbance I'm showing three images below. Again, it is not currently tropical but it may present itself as tropical later in the forecast period. Confusing I know but it's the only real show in town so going to explain it as best as I can in a simplistic way. The orange splotch over NC is the yellow X with 10% chances over North Carolina.
It then shoots it out near OBX into the Atlantic.
Kind of like spitting out a watermelon seed...
It's on it's way the next day.
Fast moving blip.
Could it attain TD status?
Possibly.
Water there is warm.
Remember this map above for later discussion.
For our purposes today there is warm water there.
It has a very narrow window to develop.
Sustainability is a big word used often these days in other arenas of discussion, but going to use that word here today in relation to tropical development as water needs to be warm enough to sustain tropical development. Kind of that simple. It also needs low shear that will not interfere with development. If you have a well developed low pressure area move over the warm waters off of the Carolinas where there is low shear it has a window where it could develop into a more truly tropical system.
There is something about the way these low pressure systems over land and how they evolve as they hit the warm water that sometimes spins up a named storm. This is a perfect example of how a set up can produce a tropical system given the right circumstances. And, this is why I am more worried about the water temperatures close in to the coast on our side of the world in June and July than I am about the water temperature near Africa that is historically still cold this time of year. Again, sustainability is a factor and evolution is the process that can make a difference when it comes to Homegrown Tropical Systems. The set up is not ideal, but it is there enough to warrant the low numbers given it from the NHC; that being 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next five days.
Perhaps the GFS feels there is too much shear there?
Currently today there is severe weather on the maps.
Watches and warnings up from NWS.
Live News feed on Twitter.
There are three points to take away from this blog today. The first is that we currently have a "Yellow X with 20%" chances on the NHC map for a possible, fast forming, fast moving system that could take on tropical characteristics. Many are asking if this could be Beryl, other's see a Tropical Low or Tropical Depression while others see nothing of significance forming or to talk about. Time will tell who is right, but Dabuh watches the surf along with the weather so anything that brings the surf on is of significance to him.
Two the over concern with the cool water temperatures out near Africa in late June is a matter of Academic significance and scientific discovery. It matters little how cool or hot the water in the East Atlantic is if you live in coastal towns that have a history of home grown development close in giving little warning time before landfall and making huge coastal impacts. Over the very warm waters of the GOM or Florida hot water and low shear close in can be the best set up available for rapid intensification of a developing tropical system. Watch how fast Wilma intensified just off shore of the Yucatan and one can only imagine what it would be like to have had satellite imagery of the Labor Day Hurricane that formed in the Bahamas in 1935.
When we talk about ACE it is basically the sum total of the intensity of the hurricane season as a whole. That often includes intense hurricanes that form in warm pools of water in the Eastern Atlantic early on and far away that tend to turn NW out into open waters becoming beautiful ocean spinners. They are also beautiful in that they spare the East Coast and the Islands direct hits such as last year's Hall of Fame winners Maria and Irma. There are years where ACE is high and hurricanes happen everywhere yet make landfall nowhere. Those are golden years for hurricane researchers to learn more about the various stages of development and steering conditions that impact hurricanes. However they often stay far away from land, yet oddly years with overall low ACE can present dangers close in that leave their imprint on the coastal towns for years and the list of those storms is long. So yes on one level we will (in theory) have less long tracking CV Hurricanes moving WNW slowly at 15 MPH giving us photogenic images of true Atlantic Hurricanes. On the other hand it means nothing as to what the chances are for landfalling hurricanes in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina or the Mid Atlantic States in the same places slammed by Hurricane Sandy that came up out of the Caribbean, across Cuba and surfed her way North over the very warm Gulfstream. A look at 1985 is another excellent example of just this sort of problematic years where hurricanes made landfall often yet most formed close in and few formed near Africa. The Southwest Carib was mostly shut down as this year could be as well as shear there is high. Two systems formed out near Africa and made it across, yet many formed closer in and there was a traffic jam of landfalling hurricanes.
Ask anyone who went through Gloria....
...how memorable 1985 was.
Keep in mind Gloria formed in the heart of the season.
When water by Africa is at it's warmest.
Gloria formed September 16th.
Climo almost always wins.
It's really not about quantity but quality.
Thankfully it could lessen the danger to the Caribbean.
Cooler waters by Africa means less early hurricanes.
The Islands are rebuilding slowly.
Florida is covered with blue tarps still.
They can use a break in tropical action.
But it means little to the the SE, GOM or NE.
Look at the map below.
June, July and August are about W of 55 Degrees.
Usually, most years.
Note the comment below:
Chick knows Carolina weather.
Again ACE is an academic term and we love to throw it about online and use it as a measure for how "active" a Hurricane Season may be or how busy it was in retrospect; it also makes great headlines and click bait in quiet times such as June and July. In real time you need to worry on what may be knocking at your door after rapidly developing close in the way Andrew did after wheezing it's way across the Atlantic constantly in danger of having the NHC pull the plug only to blow up in waters closer to the coast the same way the Labor Day Hurricane did in 1935. There was NO Ace until late August in 1992 when Andrew developed, yet we spent years rebuilding in South Florida after Andrew.
Yesterday Allan Huffman posted his thoughts on this topic of water temperatures being below normal close to Africa, yet pointing out that the cool water pool of water ends at 55 degrees West. Is the cup half full or half empty? There are two ways to look at every question and we need to not let our guard down about the 2018 Hurricane Season that will hopefully, thankfully not be as active as 2017.
Watch the discussion that followed.
If you are not on Twitter...
...you should be.
With all it's annoyances....
...Twitter is a great place for real time discussion.
Rob from www.crownweather.com is 100% correct and people need to not let their guard down because there is a current anomaly of cold water near Africa as it doesn't mean that the danger of hurricanes forming close in (especially in this particular year I'll add) do not pose a serious threat and people need to prepare properly for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It also doesn't mean that come September we will have to remember hurricanes form in the East Atlantic the way Gloria did in 1985. I'll write on this more over the next few days. But it's true and Bastardi mentions it often that no models showed the dramatic decline of warm water in the distant Atlantic and that makes me wonder how good the models really are when it comes to long term forecasting especially with regard to this year. Often they are great, however in swing years as this one may be if the much whispered El Nino develops, but some years have contrasting signals and their own unique problems so I beg you to take this year and every year seriously and do what you do need to do to get a hurricane plan set up for how you would deal with a landfalling hurricane or very, slow moving strong Tropical Storm that may dump copious amounts of rain and slam your area with tornadoes. Let's leave the scientific terms used for evaluating a season to the academics and the researchers and prepare as if this is the year that Andrew or Gloria is going to come knocking on your door!
Oh and #3 .... despite cool pools of water by Africa and high levels of Saharan Dust the waves over Africa keep on coming. The last one, the newest one earned a purple splotch on the maps we watch to see where development could happen. A little smirk there yesterday on that last wave. The one behind the smirky one has quite the structure, however it's going to plop down in mighty cold water way too early to expect development just yet.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
If you are wondering how I am dealing with a Yellow X over my head... I made a tropical breakfast of Avocado Toast and Mango Slices ;) A girls got to do what a girl's got to do . . . and am loving the cooler weather on the balcony listening to the excited birds singing while waiting on the rain to fall.
Hurricane History. Long Read. Watch the Videos.. Listen to the WIND... Hurricanes & The Florida Keys. Often What Happens in Florida Doesn't Stay in Florida ... It Ends up In NC NJ NY NE...
Can you name that Hurricane?
There really is nothing new under the sun and that is especially true when we are discussing weather in the tropics. In truth tropical storms as well as the Big Daddy of tropical systems the Hurricane do visit far away beaches in New England and on Long Island but what starts in the tropics doesn't always stay in the tropics. And whatever has happened in the past will repeat itself in the future with some minor variation so if you don't learn from history you really are doomed to have your little island paradise blown away by the next Major Hurricane.
Now days we track online and follow the hurricanes on our Smart Phones yet as much as we have changed the way we follow hurricanes with incredible satellite imagery and models that get better at nailing down the track the hurricane remains the same. Rain, wind, squalls moving in tandem in a storm that is spinning like a top traveling across an ocean looking for a place to make landfall. Sometimes a weak tropical wave battling wind shear and dry SAL manages to pull itself together just enough to attain named status while the NHC debates downgrading it to depression status. A few days later it pulls together once past the SAL and the wind shear and develops rapidly changing direction suddenly and taking aim at South Florida and the Miami area from the East. The picture above is from a book that talked on the Great Labor Day Hurricane yet it could just as easily have been talking about Hurricane Andrew.
Above was 1935
Below was 1960
Hurricane Donna made landfall in Marathon in the Florida Keys before going on to hit multiple cities in her long race to victory that ended up with people in New York getting hit by the same hurricane that made landfall in the Florida Keys. Before the Florida Keys it threatened the islands and flirted with Cuba, but for this blog's purpose we are focusing on the Florida Keys. In 1935 the Labor Day Hurricane made landfall close to Donna's landfall point but a bit further to the North around Long Key. Hurricane Betsy in 1965 made landfall in the Upper Keys though if you check it out online you may read it hit Louisiana. The point here is that history is often local from the perspective of the person viewing the history. I typed "Hurricane Donna Florida Keys" into the browser and hit images and multiple images appeared including one of a lady standing in what looks like her winter coat on the high steps of her front porch and I thought "no that's wrong" as Google found "Hurricane Donna" but Hurricane Donna was also New York's hurricane to remember.
In Miami people worried on Hurricane Betsy and they prepared the same way we do now days even though that was a half a century ago. Yes, our satellite imagery is better and we have models that though they argue often give us a better handle on changing steering currents. We sample the air around the storm and well I'd like to think if we had the tools in 1965 that we have now we would have been able to forecast Betsy's loops. Then again maybe not as hurricanes by their very nature are erratic and difficult to pin down. That is why people spend lifetimes studying Atlantic Hurricanes as if they are looking for lost treasure or the Holy Grail. The real Holy Grail is Intensity Forecasting, the kind that would predict Hurricane Aletta's sudden intensification to Category 4 from seemingly out of nowhere.
Before Hurricane Irma ever took aim on the Florida Keys after flirting with the Cuban coast history books are filled with the same scenario with regard to multiple hurricanes that did the same thing. Yes, each is different in some way but the track of a hurricane moving slowly blocked to it's North by a strong Bermuda High slowing down as it approaches and waiting patiently for the Bermuda High to give it's a pass and move a bit to the East so that like the old "Open Sesame" story the Hurricane suddenly lifts NW or WNW towards the Florida Keys. Back then we didn't have the models we have now and yet even today the same drama holds tight as we hear the models show Hurricane Irma will make landfall near Miami and then Homestead and then the Florida Keys and only in the rear view mirror to we learn there is a place named Cudjoe Key. But to people on Big Pine Key it hit their key and others will look back and say it hit the "Lower Keys" and someone in Key West who lost their roof when part of an old banyan tree fell onto it will tell their grandchildren about the time Hurricane Irma hit Key West. In the part of the Florida Keys where people are trying to put their lives back together while filling out miles of forms they would probably ask Hurricane who when hearing someone ask on Hurricane Georges. Irma is still the Hurricane of the Hour in the Florida Keys.
Cyclone Jim above in Georges.
Hurricane Irma below.
We have changed the way we track and the way we forecast even at times forecasting development before the first bands of a storm begin to come together. Our models hit the mark sometimes and other times an old time forecaster who knows climo and hurricane history does a better job than the models. Sometimes the models are wonderful, sometimes they are crappy but the one commonality is the Hurricane brings the possibility of death and destruction with it as it moves towards landfall. And, a long tracking Hurricane such as Donna makes landfall many times and takes the trouble from the tropics all the way up the Mid Atlantic into NY and beyond. Let's hope this year is not a Sandy sort of year as there are already many parallels to 2012 weather wise. Again it's hard to remember that far back but Hurricane Sandy slammed into Cuba and from their perspective it was their storm not New York and New Jersey's storm. You don't need to speak Spanish to understand the story shown below in the video after Hurricane Sandy hit Cuba showing people up in NY a preview of what they were to expect.
Back to the Florida Keys..
In my mind Hurricane Donna and Hurricane Betsy were Miami hurricanes yet they just grazed by Miami toppling tall pines trees and depositing sand all over Collins Avenue or smashing out plate glass windows in resorts that once had beautiful ocean views. But what I do remember most is that Hurricane Donna was a slow mover that rattled Miami's nerves as the end game seemed as uncertain as did Hurricane Irma's end game. It's nice to say that the NHC nailed the forecast with Hurricane Irma but did they really? Yes and no is the answer as they nailed it would impact South Florida but the "Cone" got pulled back and forth by several hundred miles before we knew 100% who was getting the eye of Irma. And, trust me the EYE is the part that makes the difference as most of South Florida, West Florida and North Florida had impacts from Irma but no where was it as deadly and destructive as Cudjoe Key and Big Pine. And, by the way Big Pine Key is way bigger and more densely populated than Long Key where the 1935 Hurricane made landfall on what was basically a tent city where temporary workers were given jobs by FDR after camping out in DC begging for jobs. So, yeah score one for FDR he gave them jobs in Paradise but Paradise can turn really ugly when a hurricane or a volcano blows it's top. I'd still rather deal directly with a Major Hurricane than a Volcano and a lava flow crunching down and obliterating my house and red, shiny mustang convertible.
The book I read yesterday that I picked up in one of the Florida Key's best book stores was riveting in it's old school description of the approach of a hurricane as it was jam packed with great detail on Florida Keys history. Jam packed as in old history as in does anyone in Florida even remember buying Sea Grape Jam? Does anyone remember what Bud and Mary's looked like back when? Does anyone remember when the Keys were quiet and traffic on the Overseas Highway wasn't the way it is now? Sea Grape Jam or Jelly is what Scuppernong Jam is to people in North Carolina. It's a local delicacy you take back to the relatives who live Up North. May I suggest next time you decide to go to the Islamorada Fish House or any Fish Restaurant down in the Keys you stop at Hooked on Books Mile Marker 81.9 and browse the racks and sit a spell and look through the books and decide which one you want to buy. Spoiler Alert you will want to buy MANY of them but many are on the Used racks for half price or even a dollar. I picked up a signed autograph book by James W. Hall who was my Literature Professor at FIU teaching classes on a Graduate Level on American Literature. Once upon the time before AOL and the Internet my grammar was way better ;)
No matter how good our models are and how great our forecast is the one thing you can count on is that a hurricane, especially a Major Hurricane, slams into a small island with the fury of Atomic Bombs, and the slamming into it goes on for however long it takes for the hurricane to move on. Sometimes a hurricane slows down and crawls and other times it moves fast like Hurricane Andrew. Either way it leaves behind a trail of broken dreams, destroyed homes, destroyed lives and sometimes a high death toll. Whether the hurricane causes flooding as we saw in Houston or it sand blasts an island the way Maria did, it's a natural disaster that we try to forecast and explain to the public beseeching people to follow evacuation orders and we hope for the best, pray like we never prayed and try somehow to make it through the night while listening to the howling of the wind. We hunker down and in that dark, scary, vitally alive night no one really cares whether the EURO was right or the GFS scored a quirky win. Maybe far away in some academic environment students are debating the models still from the safety of their dorm room in another part of the country and on message boards somewhere someone will try and defend the GFS or tout how good the EURO was with this hurricane vs the last one. But trust me in the dark of the night listening to the wind you pray to survive and pray you have a business to go to work to in the morning; no one gives a rat's ass about which model was right or wrong in the middle of a Major Hurricane.
Turn your speaker up all the way.
Imagine that sound for 2 or 3 hours.
Imagine that sound while the house is shaking.
Imagine that house while worrying there is flooding.
Just imagine.
Our models are better.
Our satellites are clearer.
Radar is better.
But....
A hurricane is still a hurricane in the end.
We slice and dice them.
We study them.
It's academic to some of us...
..a passion for chasers.
We take the data.
We study the data.
But the Hurricanes still howl in the night.
From far away they are beautiful.
Our new tools are awesome.
Whether the Euro was right.
Whether the EURO was wrong.
The end result is the same.
Destruction and death.
So during these quiet days of June when the EPAC is busy and the Atlantic is not it's a good time to think on what you will need to get through the 2018 Hurricane Season. Yes, there is talk of El Nino and there is talk of cool water near Africa. We have to worry on those storms that weakly make their way across the Atlantic battling shear and dry air who sometimes find a spot close in to become a Category 4 or Category 5 Hurricane. And, in a year like this it's important to remember over and over what starts in the tropics doesn't always stay in the tropics and the Mid Atlantic and the East Coast could be in trouble come September or October. We have come a long way from old black and white news reels with eerie science fiction sound effects but whether we watch old black and white news reels or color video the wind howls, the rain falls down endlessly as sheets of wind carry your neighbors roof one tile at a time down the street.
There are some great books out there on hurricanes, some wild websites and some awesome old news papers online. Read through them, look at the pictures and remember in the end it's not about the models but about the hurricane. If the NHC puts up watches and warnings for your area do what they tell you to do like your life depends on it. Trust me ...your life does depend on it.
That's a lot of landfalling hurricanes along the East Coast.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... Some incredible books at that bookstore. Call them, order a few .... look online. Learn from the past because the past always repeats in some ways every day, every year ... every Hurricane Season.
Aletta Forms in the EPAC ... Is Bud Not Far Behind? Atlantic Quiet. Gives You TIME to BUY Hurricane Supplies
Aletta formed yesterday in the EPAC as their hurricane season officially got underway. Aletta has a buddy to it's East closer to land that will soon be joining along in the westbound travels named Bud. What is interesting is how far Aletta formed West as did the previous disturbance that never got a name. Usually the A and B storm form very close to the beautiful Pacific beaches of Central America not that far out. The waters further out are warm enough to support tropical development while systems closer in struggle a little longer.
Many studies have been done trying to tie volcanic eruptions to strengthening of El Ninos yet no real consensus has been arrived at but everything in science is studied from solar storms to volcanoes if you have a scientific mind that is curious on discovering new facts or squashing an old scientific theory. That's what science is about... an idea, discovery, discussion, evaluation and a possible theory that may or may not hold up to the sands of time. Quotation from the article linked to above, please read it and think a while on the possibilities while appreciating the time and work put in to the study.
An evolving story as most are that are based on Earth Science. Our planet is always in motion be it above in the atmosphere, below in the magma or ocean currents always flowing as they vary in temperature dependent upon all the other facts involved. Convection moves, oozes, flows.
And we watch and try to prepare as best we can.
Easier to prepare for a hurricane than a volcano...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
On my last days of vacation down in Florida.
More to come... as things develop.
As for the Atlantic ...start counting 7 to 10 days.
Best Advice and Prediction for 2018 Hurricane Season - From Ormond Beach Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
In Ormond Beach this morning enjoying the sunrise. I'll update the blog later today. But this is the best advice I can give you above. Take it to the bank. Prepare.
I also believe GOM will continue to be in play as well as the East Coast from Florida Georgia line to Maine this year. A cooler distant Atlantic doesn't stop Home Grown from developing. And usually only the strong waves survive the trip and can turn into deadly storms that make it to higher latitudes.
Many meteorologists make predictions as do government agencies. They can tell you why this year is different from last or the one before the last one. They can tell you there is a cool pool of water out by Africa in late May going into the season and that would inhibit tropical waves from developing into Hurricanes in the MDR. That is true, it also inhibits the development of strong, early hurricanes that become Fish Storms and curve gracefully out to sea. They point to a ton of factors all of which exist and all of which are part of the mathematical problem they are trying to solve that being predicting what the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be like. 1985 and 1989 were years with similar conditions and they brought Hurricane Gloria in 1985 to the East Coast and Hurricane Hugo in 1989 to South Carolina. The rains from Hugo spread far inland into areas where mudslides and flash flooding were caused this week by residual tropical rain from the remnants of Alberto. This May in North Carolina was one of the wettest Mays on record and it reminds me of interviews I have had with old timers who always tell me that the year of Hurricane Fran was a very wet year when the soil was already soaked before Fran made it to landfall and kept on going all the way to Raleigh.
No meteorologist, not even the best, can tell you which city is going to get impacted until after the final Cone from the NHC has been posted and after the last reporter leaves town. Jim Cantore can tell you where he's going and where he's been, but the season unfolds in real time in the rear view mirror. Andrew was the first named storm of the very slow 1992 Hurricane Season and no one in South Florida will ever tell you 1992 was a slow season, it is synonymous with Hurricane Andrew a worst case scenario that happened.
This is the truth, real truth, take it to the bank .... the ONLY thing you CAN know for sure is that you have prepared as best you can for your particular harbor ...or home. Each person has a different priority and each home has a different priority. If you are elderly and have special needs or if you have 3 small children under the age of 5 you have your own particular needs. A big house with large windows has special needs that a small condo with one sliding glass door facing the ocean on the 18th floor might have. An ocean front Studio Apartment with an awesome view or a 13 room 2 story house with multiple windows and a leaky roof each have their own point of entry where the wind could get into their home, their lives and leave memories. Many kids who went through Hurricane Andrew have ....and they were the FIRST to get out of DODGE when they thought Irma was coming to Miami.
Trust me... being Hurricane Strong is the best thing you can be to give the best chance of making it through this Hurricane Season. Do not be distracted by exotic scientific words in reports explaining why this may be a weaker year or why it is comparable to such and such a year. Prepare as if this is the year that you get your Hurricane Andrew, Fran, Hugo or Gloria. And remember far from where Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall near Panama City, Florida people were killed in Interior North Carolina from residual effects of intense, tropical rain that caused their homes to collapse, a tree to fall on the car of two reporters covering flooding and there may be more to come.
Take it seriously. Prepare. That's the best advice I can give you. And, IF the East Coast gets to see a Hurricane up close and personal later this year don't say I didn't warn you.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
