Summer Solstice 2018 - Flooding in Texas As Expected from No Name System - Mid Atlantic Heat & Weather. Tropical Thoughts.

Only real discussion today is how much rain Texas actually got from a system with no name that originated in the tropics as was briefly labeled Invest 91L. I like to call it #X91L as in today's world it seems everything needs a Hashtag. How much flooding there was will be evaluated today though late yesterday it was very sketchy in some areas and even if it doesn't have a name the result is the same. I'm also curious where the rain is going down the road and it seems it's going to where all the weather has gone as of late. Graphic below from Cranky on Twitter. 

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e062118.htm

What is in a name?

Won't ask why Cranky chose Storm Hamster.

There are things I don't question.

Happy to have their input.

@crankywxguy

Some thoughts from Twitter

As so often happens in late June.

Texas and Tex Mex area got slammed with rain.

Shelters are open in several areas.

As far as the rest of the Tropics.

Oddly the only game in town is off of Africa.

It's a short lived area to watch.

Generally anything strong there....

...fizzles in the cool waters of June.

Still it begs us to watch.

Note the colder water is the NW of the wave.

African wave. 

More to follow.

Sometimes waves are hard to see.

Showing the SAL image below.

It's current.

The wave is the area of missing SAL.

Each wave takes a bite out of SAL.

Each new wave finds warmer water.

At some point the water warms up.

The SAL is less of a factor.

Waves spin up into systems.

Well sooner or later they do.

There has been much talk on social media about a cooler than average MDR (Main Development Region) and the possibility of El Nino coming on stronger later in the year. There is also some discussion on Kelvin Waves that help give pizzazz to tropical waves helping them develop being aligned in such as way as to help a few of the early westbound, tropical waves in a moisture starved part of the atmosphere swimming in cooler water. Time will tell. At some point the water will warm enough to support some development. The later a wave develops - if it develops - the further West it gets and the less likely it is to be a Fish Storm. The term "Fish Storm" for newbies means that they get stronger faster and tend to curve gracefully to the NW and swim out to sea like a fish. Waves that had problems developing in marginal conditions often can end up like Andrew in 1992 that didn't really develop until later, was almost deactivated and around where the Great Labor Day Hurricane spun up changed directions, tactics and intensified close in to a Category 5 Hurricane aiming for the Miami area. So understand each year and every set up in the Tropical Atlantic has it's own problems to worry on as the saying is so true in that it only takes 1 hurricane; especially a Camille or Andrew to wreck your world. This is 2018 and it is NOT 2017 and there will be less named storms, probably way less ACE and few years in history will compare to 2017 with regard to ACE and tropical misery.

I agree with Mike.

Each year stands on it's own.

Even below average years...

...produce Killer Hurricanes.

This should be an Average Year.

Mike @tropicalupdate (was he so smart to grab that Twitter Handle?) suggested last night on Twitter  that people watch the video I posted below. It's a good video. Much of the information has been out there discussed constantly on Twitter, however Twitter leaves much to be desired and it's way better to listen to Phil Klotzbach explain his thoughts than to read them in parts on Twitter. Like Phil I love Twitter as it is a fantastic source for live reports of weather events in real time that provide us with good information (and discussion) faster than we were able to receive such information previously. As always you have to weed out the nonsense of fake information but it's very relevant and it gives us a new way of devouring and sharing information/knowledge. There were meteorologists years ago who studied hurricanes by reading ship logs and piecing together pieces of information to see the whole picture of what happened and where it happened. If the ship went down in the middle of the Atlantic there was no ship log to read and radio was not invented so there were no "last radio reports" to study to piece together what happened. There was a time before we had radar and a time before we had satellite imagery and a time before we were able to share live breaking weather events in real time as they are happening as we do in Twitter today. You can follow Phil on Twitter @philklotzbach.  

I have great respect for Phil, but the only thing I want to say is that although we all look to the MDR for hurricane action and yes #ACE is highest when that part of the world has low shear and warm water with long tracking CV Hurricanes but disaster can strike and often does from hurricanes that form closer in and are more "Homegrown" sorts of trouble. So keep that in mind while speaking on the cooler water temperatures near Africa out in the MDR region of the Atlantic. To name a few Major Hurricanes that rocked our world that formed close in and the list is way longer that what is below... know that sometimes a storm that rapidly intensifies close to landfall is harder to prepare for or predict than a hurricane that has been heading WNW around a Bermuda High obviously set to make landfall in PR or Florida the way Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma did. And, few years will ever have as many hurricanes that could not develop without becoming Major Hurricanes. 2017 was a year to remember and study forever. I'm also adding that Phil is doing an awesome job keeping the memory and lifetime work alive that the incomparable Bill Gray began and his many students are continuing today. 

You may want to Google the following historic hurricanes to see where they in fact formed and they did not form deep in the MDR region. 

Camille

Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935

Sandy

Katrina

Mitch

Hurricane Camille

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Sandy

Camille technically was the remnant of a CV wave that did not form. Camille formed in the Caribbean as did Sandy. Katrina formed off the coast of Florida (hitting Miami first as a hurricane before moving into the GOM) in the same area as the 1935 Hurricane. So understand on one hand the MDR is cooler now, it will warm up, but it will not produce the number of hurricanes that we suffered through in 2017. However, storms that form close in and rapidly intensify with less lead time to prepare and evacuate are their own breed of trouble.  Sandy also slammed into Cuba before becoming the huge East Coast threat later delivering a large blow a good part of New Jersey and New York. So again remember data is interesting to study, but the bottom line is that you need to prepare no matter how much shear is there in the GOM today and how cool the water is in the MDR as things have a tendency to change after July 20th when the real part of the Hurricane Season normally begins. 

Thank you.

So those are my thoughts on the Summer Solstice as we are officially into Summer even though we have been dealing with the heat for the last several weeks. On a playful let's have fun level I bought a new eye shadow palette from Cargo that is called Havana and is filled with tropical shades and well put together with names that reflect Havana and in general the tropics. I'm in Raleigh this year for the Summer Solstice. Often in the past I was in Key West visiting friends and even once in Seattle where the day is really, really long. This year I'm here so the closest I can get to tropical vacation is playing with my make up and listening to a Jimmy Buffett song.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Always be true to yourself. Whether you are an academic or a salesman be true to yourself. Whether you are a teacher or a life long student be true to yourself. Whether you are an artist who sings, dances or writes or a philosopher or brain surgeon be true to yourself. Enjoy the things you love and do what you love and share what you love with others... as long as you are trying to make the world a better place than how you found it. If you don't like the world the way it is... help make it better and if you don't like the ending of a movie..... get out there and make up your own story. 

Cuba could be in play later in the 2018 Hurricane Season as could the Mid Atlantic region. Time will tell.... I'll be here blogging and sharing it all at Hurricanehabor.blogspot.com and on Twitter @bobbistorm. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/06/ts-danielle-forms-why-we-need-to-watch.html

June 1st Start of the Hurricane Season. Will Your City Have a Hurricane Make Landfall Near You? Can PR Get a Rest to Continue Cleaning up from 2017?

Rarely do I do this but I am reposting much of yesterday's post as it is the most relevant information I can give you going into the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Prepare, prepare, prepare. But before you prepare you must really stop, think and take note of what your particular concerns are regarding health, property, family and any business you have in a hurricane prone area. Every person has different needs though the basic ones such as non perishable foods, emergency medical supplies, medicine, water, gas in the tank and the always valuable hand operated can opener. Do you have children or pets or elderly people living with you? Are you elderly and your kids live far away? Do you live near or in a known flood zone and be aware sometimes an area not known to flood... floods anyway. So stop, look around and make lists of what your concerns may be and then PREPARE. Hurricanes are one of the few "natural disasters" that can be prepared for and unless you are the Island of PR facing a Category 5 Hurricane you almost always have a chance to protect your family and your home!

Small chance something pops in the Atlantic.

Epac finally woke up and shows potential.

There is talk that down the road something will try to form Alberto like down in the Caribbean again and as the models have been popular this year with that spot that is within range of climo then pay attention and check in once in a while to see if the Euro comes around to what the GFS is selling. And, this year New England down to the Mid Atlantic is at especially high risk so keep your eyes out to the East to see what might be brewing there. There is model chatter about something that could affect that part of the coast. We call it model chatter when models indicate, spin up "something" and everyone online in the meteorological world begins to chit chat about it. Chatter is innuendo mostly, however sometimes where there is smoke there really is fire.

Again the best advice I can give you is to take Hurricane Preparation seriously.  Take it to the bank.  Prepare.

I also believe GOM will continue to be in play as well as the East Coast from Florida Georgia line to Maine this year. A cooler distant Atlantic doesn't stop Home Grown from developing.  And usually only the strong waves survive the trip and can turn into deadly storms that make it to higher latitudes.

Many meteorologists make predictions as do government agencies. They can tell you why this year is different from last or the one before the last one. They can tell you there is a cool pool of water out by Africa in late May going into the season and that would inhibit tropical waves from developing into Hurricanes in the MDR. That is true, it also inhibits the development of strong, early hurricanes that become Fish Storms and curve gracefully out to sea. They point to a ton of factors all of which exist and all of which are part of the mathematical problem they are trying to solve that being predicting what the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be like. 1985 and 1989 were years with similar conditions and they brought Hurricane Gloria in 1985 to the East Coast and Hurricane Hugo in 1989 to South Carolina. The rains from Hugo spread far inland into areas where mudslides and flash flooding were caused this week by residual tropical rain from the remnants of Alberto. This May in North Carolina was one of the wettest Mays on record and it reminds me of interviews I have had with old timers who always tell me that the year of Hurricane Fran was a very wet year when the soil was already soaked before Fran made it to landfall and kept on going all the way to Raleigh.

No meteorologist, not even the best, can tell you which city is going to get impacted until after the final Cone from the NHC has been posted and after the last reporter leaves town. Jim Cantore can tell you where he's going and where he's been, but the season unfolds in real time in the rear view mirror. Andrew was the first named storm of the very slow 1992 Hurricane Season and no one in South Florida will ever tell you 1992 was a slow season, it is synonymous with Hurricane Andrew a worst case scenario that happened.

This is the truth, real truth, take it to the bank .... the ONLY thing you CAN know for sure is that you have prepared as best you can for your particular harbor ...or home. Each person has a different priority and each home has a different priority. If you are elderly and have special needs or if you have 3 small children under the age of 5 you have your own particular needs. A big house with large windows has special needs that a small condo with one sliding glass door facing the ocean on the 18th floor might have. An ocean front Studio Apartment with an awesome view or a 13 room 2 story house with multiple windows and a leaky roof each have their own point of entry where the wind could get into their home, their lives and leave memories. Many kids who went through Hurricane Andrew have ....and they were the FIRST to get out of DODGE when they thought Irma was coming to Miami.

Trust me... being Hurricane Strong is the best thing you can be to give the best chance of making it through this Hurricane Season. Do not be distracted by exotic scientific words in reports explaining why this may be a weaker year or why it is comparable to such and such a year. Prepare as if this is the year that you get your Hurricane Andrew, Fran, Hugo or Gloria. And remember far from where Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall near Panama City, Florida people were killed in Interior North Carolina from residual effects of intense, tropical rain that caused their homes to collapse, a tree to fall on the car of two reporters covering flooding and there may be more to come.

I'm in Florida.

Speaking to some people.

Doing some research.

The house down the street....

...still has a blue tarp on it.

Few here are excited about this being June 1st!

I'll update as things develop.

For anyone who wants to go deep in some thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season this is a great read and a valuable source of information. It has a glossary in there and you can Google terminology as well online. You can learn much from this report as to the many factors we look at as to weather this season will or won't be busy. But we will only know looking back on October 1st if this season was or wasn't busy for sure. 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/05/2018-06.pdf

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Best Advice and Prediction for 2018 Hurricane Season - From Ormond Beach Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

In Ormond Beach this morning enjoying the sunrise. I'll update the blog later today. But this is the best advice I can give you above.  Take it to the bank.  Prepare.

I also believe  GOM will continue to be in play as well as the East Coast from Florida Georgia line to Maine this year. A cooler distant Atlantic doesn't stop Home Grown from developing.  And usually only the strong waves survive the trip and can turn into deadly storms that make it to higher latitudes.

Many meteorologists make predictions as do government agencies. They can tell you why this year is different from last or the one before the last one. They can tell you there is a cool pool of water out by Africa in late May going into the season and that would inhibit tropical waves from developing into Hurricanes in the MDR. That is true, it also inhibits the development of strong, early hurricanes that become Fish Storms and curve gracefully out to sea. They point to a ton of factors all of which exist and all of which are part of the mathematical problem they are trying to solve that being predicting what the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be like. 1985 and 1989 were years with similar conditions and they brought Hurricane Gloria in 1985 to the East Coast and Hurricane Hugo in 1989 to South Carolina. The rains from Hugo spread far inland into areas where mudslides and flash flooding were caused this week by residual tropical rain from the remnants of Alberto. This May in North Carolina was one of the wettest Mays on record and it reminds me of interviews I have had with old timers who always tell me that the year of Hurricane Fran was a very wet year when the soil was already soaked before Fran made it to landfall and kept on going all the way to Raleigh.

No meteorologist, not even the best, can tell you which city is going to get impacted until after the final Cone from the NHC has been posted and after the last reporter leaves town. Jim Cantore can tell you where he's going and where he's been, but the season unfolds in real time in the rear view mirror. Andrew was the first named storm of the very slow 1992 Hurricane Season and no one in South Florida will ever tell you 1992 was a slow season, it is synonymous with Hurricane Andrew a worst case scenario that happened.

This is the truth, real truth, take it to the bank .... the ONLY thing you CAN know for sure is that you have prepared as best you can for your particular harbor ...or home. Each person has a different priority and each home has a different priority. If you are elderly and have special needs or if you have 3 small children under the age of 5 you have your own particular needs. A big house with large windows has special needs that a small condo with one sliding glass door facing the ocean on the 18th floor might have. An ocean front Studio Apartment with an awesome view or a 13 room 2 story house with multiple windows and a leaky roof each have their own point of entry where the wind could get into their home, their lives and leave memories. Many kids who went through Hurricane Andrew have ....and they were the FIRST to get out of DODGE when they thought Irma was coming to Miami.

Trust me... being Hurricane Strong is the best thing you can be to give the best chance of making it through this Hurricane Season. Do not be distracted by exotic scientific words in reports explaining why this may be a weaker year or why it is comparable to such and such a year. Prepare as if this is the year that you get your Hurricane Andrew, Fran, Hugo or Gloria. And remember far from where Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall near Panama City, Florida people were killed in Interior North Carolina from residual effects of intense, tropical rain that caused their homes to collapse, a tree to fall on the car of two reporters covering flooding and there may be more to come.

Take it seriously. Prepare. That's the best advice I can give you. And, IF the East Coast gets to see a Hurricane up close and personal later this year don't say I didn't warn you.

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Reporting in from the always beautiful Ormond Beach where we spend quite a bit of time on our way back and forth from Miami to Raleigh.

Besos Bobbistorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Got to see the sunrise and the moon set this morning at the beach. How incredible is that?

Financial Storms - Stock Market Watching the Dow Jones is Similar to Watching La Nina and Wondering on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Time Will Tell. It Evolves in Real Time... NFC Won the Super Bowl but the Market is Going Down? Hmnnn

I'm going to talk about the financial storm that hit us yesterday affecting people everywhere in all parts of the country and the world beyond. Watching the Stock Market and the financial world is much like watching the weather. A lot of maps and graphs are used to show what is happening in real time and to predict what might happen tomorrow; there's also a lot of graphs on what happened in the past. Also the Stock Market goes up and down in real time the same way a winter storm forms or a tropical wave begins to roll off of Africa and develop into a significant tropical wave and then an upgrade to Tropical Storm status appears imminent. Note things in the rear view mirror are often distorted in the short term and what appears to be happening may not play out exactly the way we hope or fear. I'll talk more on fear later...

Why the Market plunged yesterday is the big question today and worse than just one day it has been doing the Downward Dog Pose for the last several days since last week. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/why-the-stock-market-plunged-today.html My husband sent me several links this morning as it's a question I wondered on much yesterday. He's a Financial Planner and he as well as others are watching and wondering and many have their own thoughts. Is this merely an aspect of everyone fearing a "correction" and giving in to fear and selling when the market plunged yesterday the way snow begins to blind drivers on a busy freeway? 

When a Hurricane is making landfall the fear factor kicks in and people panic doing odd things such as evacuating out of a safe area in a well built home and get stuck on the road for hours when there wasn't really anything to fear. People jump on a plane and take a vacation to see Aunt Martha in Maine when Miami appears suddenly in the 5 day cone on the 5th day of the cone. People who swear they won't go shopping until there is a Hurricane Watch suddenly stop on the way home at Publix and spend $300 on toilet paper, bottled water and junk food while picking up a Publix Sub for dinner. Was yesterday's sell off in the market a matter of being so nervous about the coming "correction" that the fear factor took over and made a bad situation worse?

“Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself”

Hmnn?

The Eagles won the Super Bowl.

The NFC team won!!

We were supposed to see the market soar..

The Eagles did won but the Bear showed up?

Say it ain't so Tom....

The Market is supposed to fall when the AFC wins!

How could this happen?

Weather predicting is similar to the trying to see into a crystal ball what the Stock Market will do as wives tales and "sayings" are whispered about as random events are often thought to be indicators of what will happen in real life. You know those saying about how watching woolly caterpillars is supposedly a sign of a fierce winter waiting in the wings? Market analysts who keep a rabbit foot in their pocket are known to watch the Super Bowl nervously. As you can read in the article below football has often been seen as an odd indicator of how the market will do in any given year. The Super Bowl happens in the beginning of the calendar year and supposedly high scoring games bring a high climbing market. AFC wins are seen as an indicator of a Bear Market and when the NFC wins we all win or so they say. Well, that's been the often watched pattern by people who love to watch patterns as much as they love to watch the Dow and satellite loops. I suppose in any given year that rule can be broken.  Or this is just an odd anomaly in the way that a weak hurricane goes Cat 3 for a day and then falls apart again for the rest of it's run limping along as a Post Tropical Storm. What goes up must come down and then after the correction could be another correction.

http://fortune.com/2018/02/04/superbowl-2018-eagles-patriots/

Hmnnn.

Well there was a lot of volatility yesterday.

The wrong kind though.

When they talk about the Stock Market they use words such as "barometer" while looking for a way to explain what no one can totally agree on and that is why the market reacted yesterday to what seemed to have no defining reason for dropping so dramatically. There has been much talk about a coming correction and I'd say we can definitely say that correction came yesterday during what had been a bull market for the last year. Bull turned to bear so fast yesterday it was as if it was a fast change artist in between acts of a long running play. And using the words "playing the market" is used for a reason as it is in a way a "game" of sorts however it's one of the biggest indicators of our economy and how our world works... how both our world and our money goes round. On days like today it's a "game" no one laughs about as they watch, wait and pray that it begins to climb again.

First of all there had been talk of a "correction" but no one expected this sort of diving correction out of seemingly nowhere.

To explain this in weather terms let's say it's January and it's obviously possible to get a snow storm in the Carolinas; but we had snow as far South this year as the Florida Georgia Line.  A forecast is made that snow will fall in the mountains and to the north somewhere between Greensboro and Raleigh with rain along the coast and to the South. The cold front begins to move and every meteorologist watches their radars and Twitter feed. Models showed the general path of trouble and the models recorrected themselves taking away that threat of snow for Wilmington and the coast. The flakes begin to fall or in typical Raleigh fashion the snow didn't fall and a clear donut hole formed around Raleigh on the radar as the dry atmosphere took longer to moisten and allow snow to fall. Reports of snow in Pittsboro begin to come in and then oddly reports of snow flakes falling in the Pine Hills to the South of Raleigh. Everyone gets really excited as snow in the Pine Hills is rarer than snow in Raleigh. But oddly the snow continued to fall in record amounts on a town that didn't salt the roads and isn't prepared to plow.

For children snow in the South is a game.

A game they win!

It also creates havoc.

Loss of life and financial loss.

http://www.thepilot.com/news/surprise-snow-storm-leaves-us-snarled-stranded/article_7219a752-effb-11e7-8a93-b369fc294030.html

We have gotten so used to being able to predict things be it the general movement of the Stock Market or just when snow will begin to fall and where and when yet weather like the Stock Market can suddenly become unpredictable sometimes for no apparent reason. In retrospect we can watch loops of what happened and see why Moore County got buried in an unexpected snow storm. It was winter after all  and it's been an active winter storm track in the South. It's not as if Hurricane Sandy formed down near Cuba and the next morning it hit Wyoming; it was reasonable to assume that it would move North and follow the steering currents and it could possibly affect the New York City metro area. Bull Markets have corrections and at times go Bear in the same way that La Ninos suddenly begin to look more like a Neutral Pattern after months of warm water expanding on satellite imagery. In the rear view mirror of research, maps, loops and shared discussion we understand what seemed to blind side us in real time.

Maybe this was a problem with computers and algorithmic trading gone awry. Today the Market opened and after a shaky start the Market seems to be trying to correct it's correction though it's falling again as I type this blog.... in real time. It's a good day to watch and wait and not panic; do not sell wildly and do not buy an extra pallet of bottled spring water because the predictions for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season are coming in on the high side. Mind you if it's a really good deal and you have the room... you can buy canned food on a good sale.

Did I mention La Nina?

Is this an anomaly or a pattern?

The same can be wondered about the Market.

Is this a trend or a pattern?

Much like the weather... 

Time will time...

Was the record snow fall in Erie Pa such a big surprise considering they do get Lake Effect Snow and it was winter, however no one saw Santa Claus sending them a record snow fall this Christmas.

Yeah.... trying to figure out the the next week's weather is often harder it seems than seeing which way the Market is trending. Be calm, stay steady ... do not give into fear and wait a bit before doing anything you may regret. Was the fall of Bitcoin an early indicator of the Stock Market doing a nose dive? I wonder...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.... It's going to be a long day for people watching the Stock Market.

Hurricane Forecasts 2017 - Will They Pan Out or Be a Bust? Average to Above Average Year? What Happened to the forecast El Nino?

Enjoy the quiet times....

...they won't last forever.

The only thing constant is change.

Weather changes day by day ....

9 Days Until June 1st and Hurricane Season.

Are you prepared? Mother Nature is always prepared!

Let's talk Hurricane Forecasts for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. First off remember it's a forecast of future possibilities based on scientific study so understand forecasts are only verified in the rear view mirror. There are so many factors to consider and most of those factors have not shown up but are forecast in the long term by other forecasts. One piece of bad data can throw off the whole equation. You know the old saying "garbage in, garbage out" that we use for computer programs? Hurricane Forecasts are made by computer programs vs a Ouija Board or picking cards from a Tarot Deck. 

Before Stephen Colbert & Jimmy Kimmel ...

...there was Johnny Carson.

Times were not so politically correct...

But people laughed... and we knew it was a comedy routine. No one laughs if the forecasts officials put out do not pan out. So, many forecasts are drawn wide on purpose so the range is easier to hit. If you have ever played archery with me in Middle School you will understand that reference. I was better at the balance beam, baton and pinball then archery...

So that said here are some of the forecasts put out. Note they are vastly different from earlier forecasts that were put out when based on an El Nino forming and slowing down this coming season. That in itself shows how poorly previous models operated in predicting an El Nino that would ramp up fast. And, to be honest that is because there were many indications that an El Nino was forming and then.... something happened. With that knowledge it's worth remembering things can change again just as fast. Weather is fluid and follows it's own rules from year to year! El Nino is named El Nino for a reason as it historically appeared around the time of Christmas.

Mike from Spaghetti Models posted TWC forecast earlier.

There's a lot of great discussion on his Facebook page.

You might want to check it out...

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Below is the "official forecast" from CSU

They update it throughout the season in real time.

http://tropical.colostate.edu/

Link to actual forecast is below:

http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/04/2017-04.pdf

Way back years ago when the Internet was young and we were all talking on the only real forum around we would discuss these reports in great detail. AOL Hurricane History Board became for me an educational experience in tropical meteorology. And in order to keep up I'd have to read the report very slowly and it forced me to understand things I knew intuitively but not in the proper meteorological terminology. If you have the time go through the report slowly and learn the many factors experts use to come to their forecast conclusion. You will learn much and view the whole process with more respect. For me personally I love the analog years that are used to view this coming season in the proper perspective. As a Hurricane Historian I love the details and it goes without saying, but I'll say it again... KNOWLEDGE IS POWER and HISTORY REPEATS.

1957

1965

1972

1976

2002

You can use the site below to study those years.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

Again the CSU forecast that is now dedicated to the memory of Dr. William Gray a pioneer, iconic figure in the world of tropical meteorology. He was awesome, amazing and a totally original person who knew tropical meteorology better than anyone else. His views were often controversial but he was a compelling genius with a deep soul and sparkle to him. 

And, again the CSU forecast is updated throughout the season as factors either form or disappear and new factors previously not  predicted appear. It's easy to get a rain storm on a summer day but it takes many different variables to get a hurricane spinning. 

Jim Williams who runs www.hurricanecity.com also puts in a tremendous amount of time researching different cities in his data base to predict where those spinning hurricanes may make landfall. He is less about how many then he is about where... though his research is different for a busy season vs a slow season. Again, so many variables. He is right way more often than he is wrong. Putting the link to his blog that shows how much work goes into his forecast process.

http://hurricanecity.com/blogs/2017/05/city-predictions-for-the-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season/

Places below that need to stay vigilant!

Although they use vastly different methods many of the places Jim picked were affected by storms in the analog years that Phil put in the CSU report. Something to think on...  

For example in 1965 Hurricane Betsy crossed the Florida Keys affecting both Marathon and Key Largo. If you had a sailboat docked near Key Largo back then... you would know what I mean.

Different angle of track but landfall location exactly.

The link to the youtube video is below:

Feel free to discuss it or ask questions on http://www.canetalk.com/ a tropical weather forum online if you aren't on Twitter or some other social media. Note that his map for 2017 is shown below. Also note that his map for 2016, also shown below, came close to showing Matthew's track and the areas nearby were impacted by Matthew.

2017 

2016

Jim being extremely detail oriented posted this:

Compares and contrasts previous forecasts.

I'll make a forecast myself. Someone... somewhere... in Hurricane Country NEEDS to be knowledgeable about how to survive a hurricane as it's very likely we will have similar hurricanes this year to Matthew that forms and tracks close in along the coastline. In a world where you can't be safe from a terrorist attack at a concert or at the Boston Marathon you can be safe from a hurricane either by properly preparing or following evacuation routes. Knowledge is power and history does repeat. Stay #Hurricane Strong.

http://flash.org/hurricanestrong/

Life would be easy if you could just ask Alexa if you were going to have a hurricane hit your city this year, but trust me that's way above Alexa's pay grade... 

You are in denial if you think it's as easy as calling Miss Cleo and sadly Miss Cleo is no more so don't you bother calling that number.. unless you know how to reach her in the world beyond. Listen to the experts and as always be #HurricaneStrong. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter at @bobbistorm and check back again soon!

Ps Take a look at Hurricane Betsy doing her thing in the Florida Keys...

http://www.wikiwand.com/en/Hurricane_Betsy

Caribbean Blob of Convection. Jim Williams 2017 Predictions for the Hurricane Season.

Being late May people are watching the loops.

And this ball of convection is entertaining.

There is shear present.

Storms are pushing off to the East.

You can see that above and below.

High Pressure is to the North.

High pressure is pressing down into the Caribbean.

Does have a look doesn't it?

Note the graphic below.

People have asked me so here's my thoughts.

It's early, but convection is in the Caribbean.

There is a "purple splotch" on the maps.

A blob of Caribbean Convection.

Sounds like a Jimmy Buffett song doesn't it?

As I said on Twitter I'm tired of ignoring it.

Embedded in a trof.. 

(old frontal boundary)

...is a hot mess of convection.

It looks better than it is...

Actually whatever center there is ..is to the West.

Not really a "center" as much as in impulse.

Shear could decrease a bit for a day or so.

Allowing some dramatic May water vapor loops.

But the odds are not in it's favor.

The models:

The Euro sees it and then loses it.

It's a temporary feature.

If anything changes I'll update.

But, it's real hard to ignore.

So I thought I'd clear that up for everyone.

Sadly there is flooding going on in Jamaica.

Stationary convection that's intense.

You don't need a tropical storm to cause misery.

A situation that needs to be monitored.

Flooding is flooding with or without a name.

That time of year...

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins SOON...

..we are in fact on the B storm.

So unofficially it already began.

Time to think seriously... 

Jim Williams has a video up.

He gives his top city picks for possible landfall.

His predictions for the season.

More seasons than not he is dead on.

And often more "on" than "official predictions"

So those who know...

...know to pay attention to him!

He lists the cities he is most concerned with for 2017.

Watch the video.

www.hurricanecity.com 

Note the picture of Jim on a panel with Max Mayfield.

That's a panel of experts answering questions.

When it comes to hurricanes he is an expert.

So check out his site and his predictions.

I know I do.

Keep watching those loops.

And in places like Tampa where it's 95 degrees..

.. I'd worry on the hurricane season.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm